Why is NJ-03 still listed as a tossup?

He's light-years ahead in fundraising.  It's a Dem-leaning district in a Dem-leaning year.  Republicans aren't going to play in New Jersey this year, and the NRCC has so many other seats to worry about that I doubt they'll play for what looks like a lost cause in an expensive district.  Is the Republican a self-funder?

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by: WestCoastMC @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 03:19:09 AM UTC

McCain is playing in Jersey

He's already run a few ads on local cable and made a few personal appearances. That's probably more than Bush did in two separate campaigns combined (Cheney did make a campaign appearance in 2004 but I don't think Bush did).

Despite the hoopla about Adler, I would think that Stender has at least as big an edge in NJ-7 (she lost the seat by 3,000 votes in 2006).  Stender is clearly the more liberal and the more reliable vote.  I think they'll both probably win but as of now I have the state pencilled in for a gain of two seats factoring in both the possibility of Dennis Shulman winning in NJ-5 and one of these two losing.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 10:19:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NJ 03

CQ still rates it leans Republican, but Rothenberg has it at Tossup//tilts Democrat.  I think it is because of the previous Republican nature of the district.  But this one is definately leans Democrat based on Adler's fundraising alone

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:17:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was actually thinking this title earlier tonight

I also thought of another one: 10 Things I Hste About 2Q Fundraising Reports.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 03:49:24 AM UTC

Where do I begin?

LA-Sen: This is with a big Bush fundraiser this quarter.  HA!  Landreiu will probably hang in with this guy fundraising wise again.

MN-03 + IL-11 = Damn.  Although I think we are undoubtedly favored in IL-11, so it isn't as big of a deal there.  

NJ-03: John Adler is a machine!  Glad to see him rolling.  

OH-02: Good quarter, not bad at all.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 04:18:14 AM UTC

So why again is Vic Wulsin a DCCC "emerging race"?

She held Schmidt to 51-49 in 06.  She must be the strongest 06 challenger who is running again this year who is not being supported by the DCCC.  By a very big margin, I'd bet.

Seals, Burner, Jennings, Trauner, Stender, Kilroy, Kissell, Maffei, Charlie Brown are all in.  I can't think offhand of another candidate who came within 6 points, is running again, and has gotten so little love from the D-Trip.

I imagine there are reasons, but I don't know what they are.  "Presidential turnout" is not enough as far as I'm concerned; that's just as true of WY-AL and CA-04 as it is of OH-02.

Anyone got a clue what it is about Wulsin's campaign that the DCCC doesn't like?

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 06:19:56 AM UTC

The top of the ticket

I think the logic is that Schmidt has won twice now, and this time she's running in a presidential election, where despite the possibility of a big Obama win, the district's strongly Republican demographics should kick in even more than in 2005 or 2006.  Last time the top of the ticket was Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland, both of whom won in landslides and which may have helped Wulsin get as close as she did.  Wulsin can still pull it off, but 2006 was probably her best shot.

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by: WestCoastMC @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 06:50:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But Wulsin only ran once

The other time it was Paul Hackett.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:48:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

High PVI?

OH-02 has a PVI of R+13, making it one of the highest on Cook's competitive race chart.  The incumbent isn't as ethically challenged as AK-AL (R+14) and it isn't open like AL-02 (R+13), KY-02 (R+13) or WY-AL (R+19).  It is more comparable to ID-01 (R+19) or NC-10 (R+15) or TX-07 or 10 (R+16 and 13) and less like CA-04 (R+11), where Brown is on the list.

I think they may also feel that even if Wulsin beats Schmidt because she is such a flake, the seat would be hard to hold in future years.  But to me a solid vote on progressive issues esp health care in Obama's fiorst term is worth it.  Wulsin is definitely worth supporting.

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by: Mimikatz @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 16:57:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So are they trying to wait until 2010 or so to throw out Mean Jean

by using the help of Strickland's being on the ballot?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:51:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ozinga 800k??

How the heck is Ozinga raising that much?

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 12:13:56 PM UTC

seriously

Halvorson's been outraised 2 to 1? Not good.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.

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by: X Stryker @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 13:31:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ozinga

I don't think its anything to really worry about.  Ozinga is a crooked businessman.  i'm sure he has plenty of contacts that would love ot see him become a congressman and help them out afterward.  Its the low hanging fruit gentleman, Halvorsen is still in good shape.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 16:29:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Halvorsen raised like 500 k

she already has about a six month lead in fundraising and organization. But Ozinga is a really, really shady businessman, and he's not going to be able to win over voters.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 20:55:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm guessing

dirty money. Seriously don't worry about it too much.  

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by: sulthernao @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 16:51:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Halvorson is still a much stronger candidate. I'm not worried.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:40:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

isn't ozinga self-funding?

that seems like the only possible reason for this kind of performamce.

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by: st paul sage @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:33:34 PM UTC

No

He self-funded 70K, but the guy is rich and has a lot of rich friends -- there's your reason.

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by: James L. @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 17:45:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kay Hagan does well

$1.6 million in the 2nd quarter, with $1.2 million on hand.  Dole hasn't released numbers yet, but this gives me hope that Hagan will be competitive, and increases the chances of the DSCC playing hard in NC.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

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by: WestCoastMC @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 18:56:12 PM UTC

Hagan campaign email

says she had 6,500 new contributors in the quarter (doubling the prior total of contributors), with 70% of individual contributions coming from within NC. Tar Heel voters are ready for a change in the Senate.

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by: bear83 @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 19:23:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN-2

Excellent numbers.  It shows that Sarvi is now a full-time campaigner.  He still has a long way to go, but I'm wondering what kind of numbers Walz was posting.  Both districts are pretty similiar.

MN-3, hot damn...  Hopefully Madia can post some big numbers too.  But 600k, damn...  However, Paulsen has been in the state legislature for a long time, as a majority leader (I believe) and is from probably one of the most affluent cities in the state/country.  He has a lot of fundraising ties, hopefully grassroots fundraising on Madia's behalf will prevail.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 21:16:35 PM UTC

Yeah

I was worried that Sarvi would not be able to put up a decent fundraising number again and this race would fall off competitiveness but Sarvi is now a full time candidate and has been since March so he should keep on increasing his fundraising totals. He'll need to at least tipple what he's gotten so far (around 250k) if he's going to make it a serious race.

I underestimated Paulsen. I still think he will lose but he is a very, very impressive candidate. Let's hope Madia pulls in a good haul. That won't be a easy race.

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by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 01:15:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]