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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 2Q Fundraising Reports

by: James L.

Thu Jul 03, 2008 at 11:46 PM EDT


TX-Sen:
     Rick Noriega (D): $930K raised

I'm sorry to say it, but this is yet another disappointing quarter for Noriega.

NY-13:
     Mike McMahon (D): ~$500K raised (in one month)

     Steve Harrison (D): ~$150K raised

GA-06:
     Bill Jones (D): $225K raised; $168K CoH (1/1-6/25)

     Tom Price (R-inc): $293K raised; $756K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-08:
     Jim Marshall (D-inc): $165K raised; $1.34M CoH (4/1-6/25)

     Rick Goddard (R): $162K raised; $459K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-10:
     Barry Fleming (R): $145K raised; $344K CoH (4/1-6/25)

     Paul Broun (R-inc): $289K raised; $202K CoH (4/1-6/25)

GA-12:
     John Barrow (D-inc): $263K raised; $1.02M CoH (4/1-6/25)

     John Stone (R): $67K raised; $33K CoH (4/1-6/25)

Nothing from Regina Thomas yet, but she has another 15 minutes left to file.

AL-02:
     Harri Anne Smith (R): $169K raised; $100K CoH (5/15-6/25)

     Jay Love (R): $151K raised; $164K CoH (5/15-6/25)

AL-05:
     Wayne Parker (R): $115K raised; $46K CoH (5/15-6/25)

     Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (R): $149K raised; $5K CoH (5/15-6/25)

UPDATE:

GA-13:
     Deborah "The Defrauder" Honeycutt (R-inc): $976K raised; $845K spent; $337K CoH

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | ...Stood Still
James L. :: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 2Q Fundraising Reports
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How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 2Q Fundraising Reports | 94 comments
Q2
Glad to see McMahon's exceptionally high numbers.  Also hoping to see Smith pull off the upset over Love. Do these figures include personal loans?  Very dissapointed in Noriega's numbers.  apprehensively waiting for Regina Thomas's numbers.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
McMahon's numbers were only becuse the DCCC strepped in
McMahon's numbers were only becuse the DCCC broke policy and strepped in a primary.  If they would have heloped Harrison when he announnced inAugust, he'd a have e3 million.  When the FEC reports come out ypu'll see lots of small donations for Harriosn and lots of PAC and $2300 donations from lobbyists for McMahon(McMahon's brother is one and the local carpenter's union protested McMahon's brother in December for his work for a client hiring non-union workers).
[ Parent ]
They threw a fundraiser for him, yes.
Is it policy?  Last time I checked, they endorsed in at least 3 other races before the primary was over.  (AZ-01 Kirkpatrick, NY-26 Powers, and AK-AL Berkowitz)  
[ Parent ]
Stupid stupid stupid
Mikal Watts was willing to put more than $10 million of his own money into the Senate race in Texas, instead he dropped out of the primary in part because of the fetish some in the netroots have with running vets led them to get behind Noreiga, who is a much weaker candidate, and not much more progressive.

Without a Texan at the top of the ticket, and with Cornyn now seeming more and more the unpopular buffoon, we would have had a serious shot at this seat. At minimum, Watts could have forced to RSCC to waste money in Texas to the benefit of Tom Allen, etc.

Watts would have won the primary if he had stayed in, but he isn't THAT rich, and it would have cost him a lot of money. A united party and a cheap primary might have been enough to put him over the top, but Watts saw that winning a close, expensive primary against a hispanic candidate would have weakened him and divided the party enough that winning the general would have been unlikely.

In the future I hope we can unite behind self-funders in expensive long-shot races like TX-Sen absent some very serious flaw.

I'm hoping Watts goes for the open seat
When Hutchinson retires.  Word might have leaked to an insider like him, that she would retire soon.  Running for an open seat would be much easier than running against an incumbent.  
[ Parent ]
She's supposed to run for Governor in 2010
Granted, this is supposed to happen every four years, but...
[ Parent ]
Off-topic, but about the Netroots fascination with vets
The Netroots obsession over endorsing war veterans is stupid and myopic.  They think that running a war vet will somehow reel in the Republican vote just because the candidate is a military man.  It's partially what led us to Kerry and what is causing bloggers every day to push for Clark or Webb as VP.  It's analogous to if the GOP ran a black candidate, thinking that the African-American voting bloc would shift en masse behind him or her.

This isn't a knock on Noriega, who I think is a fine candidate issues-wise, but did the Texas Democratic Party seriously think it would be a good idea to have a candidate with limited fundraising prowess and who is still on active duty?

[ Parent ]
"they"
I don't know who or what you're talking about when you say "The Netroots" and "They," but you're posting comments in online political blogs, so you might not want to hold yourself quite so separate...
[ Parent ]
Too Much Emphasis on Fundraising
I think you place too much emphasis on fundraising.  Obviously, money is important to winning.  But, I've seen many, many candidates with lots of money and little electoral appeal who flop.  Watts does not strike me as an electable candidate simply because of his trial lawyer background, not to mention that he's never run and won a campaign.  Norriega, on the other hand, has a great bio that can attract independents and moderate Republicans, and at least has won election before.  Even though the fundraising numbers are disappointing for him, the polling numbers are as good or better than I would have hoped for at this time.  The idea that Watts would be doing any better than Norriega strikes me as speculative, at best.
[ Parent ]
Noriega--the road to 55
Noriega need to rais 930K per week, not per quarter.

It just goes to show how bad the bench must be for Texas Democrats.  I just don't more than a four or five seat gain
in the Senate.  I just don't think Schumer recruited as well as he did in 2006.  

Not sure about that
Maybe 930K per month from the start of the campaign, but not sure who could do that every week!

The report said his COH before the quarter was just above $300,000, so this is going to be tough. Basically the only chance is if Cornyn makes huge mistakes and the DSCC comes in.

I thought overall recruitments have been good. We could have done better in Kentucky and got someone in Tennessee. Oregon could have only been better with one of the Congressmen or a former Governor, a Speaker of the House is a good recruitment. Begich and Allen were the best we could have hoped for in those states and the same for the top four races. Musgrove was another great recruit in a red state. So I don't see how this year was any worse than 2006. There are at least 10 very winnable seats and even in the more longshot states we still have very credible candidates.

[ Parent ]
Recruiting
I would say he did just as good a job this time around honestly lets compare in 2006 I would say he recruited eight top tier and two 2nd tier candidates.

Top Tier- Casey, Whitehouse, Webb, Tester, McCaskill, Brown, Klobuchar, Ford

2nd Tier- Cardin, Pederson

This year by contrast he recruited seven top tier and atleast four 2nd tier candidates

Top Tier- Warner, Udall, Udall, Shaheen, Allen, Begich, Musgrove

2nd Tier- Slattery, Hagan, Lunsford, Merkley

On the bubble- LaRocco, Martin, Noriega, Kleeb, Rice

His big miss in '06 was Nevada and in '08 was Minnesota

[ Parent ]
I don't think anyone really recruited Franken
He just announced very early, raised a ton of money and scared off all primary challengers.
[ Parent ]
Franken
Yeah that's why I'm not holding it against Schumer, he can't help it that Franken is going to blow a perfectly competitive seat, I would have loved to see Rybak or McCollum or even Chris Coleman who beat that Bush dog Randy Kelly in St. Paul.
[ Parent ]
The fat lady certainly hasn't sung yet here
I wouldn't give up here just yet, especially with Obama looking like he'll win double digits here. The real campaign probably hasn't actually started here yet (usually does post-Labor Day).
[ Parent ]
Franken's a solid Tier 2 Recruit
He knows the issues, has raised a ton of money, and has a very solid, experienced ground operation.  He has trailed by as much as 12 according one poll and led by as much as 2.  I think it's safe to say that he's at between 5 and 10 points back of a polished incumbent.  

To suggest that LaRocco, Martin, Noriega, Kleeb or Rice - all of whom will probably lose by close to 20 - are better recruits, is silly.

[ Parent ]
Tier 2 recruits
I believe that Franken is way too polarizing to win, I will certainly be glad to eat my words but I think that Franken is a terrible recruit in what should be an extremely competitive seat.  I would consider LaRocco, Martin, Noriega, and Rice all good recruits considering the deep red territory they are running and the respectable campaigns they are running.  I also believe they have room to grow and could potentially be strong candidates that force the NRSC to spend money in defense. Minnesota on the other hand is a race where the Democrat could and probably should be winning right now.

However, this is all my opinion so in closing I would like to say that I don't want this to evolve into a flaming fight and even though I disagree, I do respect your opinion.

[ Parent ]
I kind of agree
LaRocco, Martin, Noriega and Rice are all polling decently in very red states, in a presidential year. It is bound to be an uphill battle for all of them. But this is purple colored Minnesota where Obama is leading in polls left and right. Franken should be within the margin of error in every poll that comes out. IMO. I thought he was hysterical on SNL, don't get me wrong, but I thought John McCain was also. Especially when he did Don Rumsfeld. HAHAHA "I won'tbe happy until every American has a chip implanted in their brains" haha But that doesn't mean I'm going to vote for him. Franken might be close to Minnesotans policy wise, but his personality is harsh, I would hope that no one can deny that. That is going to brush off many independants that want a change in the Senate, but just do not think that Franken is the change that they want. I'm with TheGame in that I hope I live to eat my words come Novemeber, and no doubt, its still very early to call this race for Coleman, but I think that we have better pick up opportunities elsewhere this year.
[ Parent ]
Compare and contrast Maine & Minnesota
Careful, SurveyUSA showed just two weeks ago that Obama has a bare 47%-46% lead over McCain in Minnesota, a stark contrast to the Q-poll and Rasmussen.  But SurveyUSA's consistently had the closest numbers of all the pollsters.  But unless you can tell me why we should be able to dismiss SurveyUSA's numbers, as opposed to Rasmussen's or the Q-poll's, I'd be careful when it comes to what Obama's real lead in Minnesota is.  It could be much smaller than you think.

Contrast that with Maine, where, albeit with less polling, Obama's leads are commanding.  EVERY poll showed him up by double digits, with Rasmussen showing a ridiculous 22-point lead two weeks ago.  Now, given that HUGE lead for Obama, Allen still trails by a significant margin.  538.com is projecting both Collins and Coleman to win by almost the exact same margins.

In that sense, Franken is doing better than Allen is, given the more purplish nature of Minnesota when compared to Maine.

[ Parent ]
BUT
Collins is also widely popular, and very 'moderate.' That flies in a blue state, where Coleman isn't overly popular, nor would he have won in 2002 if circumstances would have been different. There are alikes and dislikes, but Allen's poll numbers have been slowly rising, while Franken's haven't. Again, they might both win, but I think Minnesota should have been a no brainer right now. IMO
[ Parent ]
Here is why I dismiss SurveyUSA
The last time I saw one, their internals showed Obama and McCain tied for the 18-34 year old age bracket.  That certainly is not true.  That should be a pretty sizable margin in Obama's favor and should make up quite the deficit of the polls.  Especially with Minnesota's large number of colleges and huge population of young college educated professionals who are upper middle class, a demographic Obama does well with.

Plus, two different polling firms showing wide leads while one doesnt, that's two to one and looking at our state demographically, we should be polling near where Oregon and Washington are polling and both have double digit leads.  I'd put us above Oregon, below Washington which is a comfy double digit lead.

[ Parent ]
I'll agree with that
I have no idea why so many SUSA polls are showing Dems and Repubs close in the 18-34 bracket.  The NC Senate race polls have been really odd, often showing Dole with a big lead among 18-34 voters.  Maybe they aren't calling many young people who only have phones, like myself?  Just a hunch.

Either way I do think that the 18-34 vote will come out MUCH bigger for us than many polls suggest.

[ Parent ]
often times
They are not permitted to call people on their cell phones because this wastes people's minutes and might actually cost them money, so they may be under polling the youth vote, or they might be finding a cross sample of the youth that may not truly represent NC. Its like polling college students but eliminating those that don't drink. lol You might not find a very representative sample if you did that. lol
[ Parent ]
OK...
but then why don't you similarly dismiss the SurveyUSA poll showing Franken down big then too?  They have Coleman winning among young people by one point, similar to what they have Obama/McCain.  If you don't buy that, why should you buy what they say about the Senate race either?  (Actually, that's an improvement from March, when SUSA had Coleman CRUSHING Franken among young people by 18 points!)

If you are to dismiss the presidential SurveyUSA poll, but accept their poll for the Senate race, then that means you're going to have a LOT of young people voting an Obama/Coleman ticket.

[ Parent ]
I guess
because I can see how that poll makes sense with the current debacles and headlines all over the papers.  But you raise a valid point.  An Obama/Coleman ticket makes no sense, Franken fits right into our demographic.  I think it'll be a squeaker either way unless Obama turnout is ridiculious and carries Franken over by a large margin.
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
I just don't see the recent so-called debacles (seriously, something he wrote/said in 1995???) as turning off huge swaths of young people in Minnesota.  If anything, fine, maybe someone older would get offended by that.  But young people generally seem to be smart enough to recognize that that was what he did during his comedic career, and they're able to separate the two.  Sure, you're going to get the holy rollers who can't stomach what he wrote, but are they really that prevalent in Minnesota?
[ Parent ]
It's only July.
Minnesota on the other hand is a race where the Democrat could and probably should be winning right now.

I just don't think this statement is justified.  What makes Minnesota so different than Maine or Oregon?  Blue states with a Republican incumbent that's done a decent job fooling the voters into thinking that person's a "moderate".

The polls are somewhat close in Oregon, but every single one shows Merkley trailing Smith, and the latest Rasmussen poll shows him down 9 points, similar to the Q-poll showing Franken down 10 points.  And in Maine, the most recent poll shows Allen down by 7, but every other one shows him down by double digits.

So given those circumstances, I just don't see how you can say that in Minnesota, the Democrat should be winning right now.

[ Parent ]
hear hear
I'm glad that someone finally tries to put this into perspective. Note that: Maine and Oregon both gave Kerry higher %s than Minnesota in 2004. Maine is 2/2 Democratic House reps, Trifecta for awhile locally, Oregon is 4/5 Democratic house reps, with a more recent Democratic Trifecta, and Minnesota has 5/8 Dem reps (1 of them elected in '06), a Republican governor, hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1986, and only since '06 do we control both legislative chambers.

Next, give me polls throughout the cycle that have shown Allen and Merkley AHEAD rather than behind throughout the cycle.

Honestly, Franken may not have been a Mark Warner or Tom Udall that we all wanted to knock Coleman out, but people here are seriously underrating and understating his actual chances for November.

[ Parent ]
Another way to look at it
Look at how far behind Allen and Merkley started compared to where they are now, they have continued to add support, and honestly Allen was the best we could ask for in Maine, Merkley was further down the list, but as his name got out he has made the seat more competitive.  Franken has gone nowhere since the beginning of his campaign and even with Obama on the ballot right now I don't see him getting anymore that 44%-46% of the vote in this election.  I'm not saying that Allen or Merkley will do any better, but they have both run stronger campaigns up to this point and I see them as more likely to win.

Rasmussen Reports April 1, 2008
Susan Collins 54%
Tom Allen 38%

Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2008
Susan Collins 49%
Tom Allen 42&

the gap closed 9% points from 16% to 7 %

Rasmussen Reports February 19, 2008
Gordon Smith 48%
Jeff Merkley 30%

Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008
Gordon Smith 47%
Jeff Merkley 38%

the gap closed from 9% from 18& to 9%

Survey USA March 12, 2008
Norm Coleman 51%
Al Franken 41%

Quinnipiac Poll June 26, 2008
Norm Coleman 51%
Al Franken 41%

no change.

[ Parent ]
MN-Sen is one of the MOST polled senate races, and you
couldn't give it the same benefit of having the same polling firm as you did ME and OR?  Odd.  
[ Parent ]
i'll agree
I'll agree with that, but pollster trend-lines show that the race in Minnesota is not going our way at the moment, while Oregon and especially Maine is trending our way. Sure, trends change, but there has to be a reason for them to. I don't see Franken giving any reason for Minnesotan's to change their opinion of him. Again, its early.
[ Parent ]
Polls
I just tried to use a similar time frame, Rasmussen has consistently polled Franken higher than every other polling firm but either way they show no movement either

Rasmussen Reports March 19, 2008
Norm Coleman 48%
Al Franken 46%

Rasmussen Reports June 11, 2008
Norm Coleman 48%
Al Franken 45%

Change of -1%  

[ Parent ]
That makes more sense.
Out of curiosity, who polled Minnesota best in 2006?  And who's polls seem to have the most realistic outlook on the presidential race in Minnesota?  IIRC, SUSA has it very close at a presidential level, and Franken down by 10, while Rasmussen has the senate race close and Obama up by double digits.  Again, not sure, but it would be an interesting thing to look at the metrics of the Minnesota polls again and what not.  
[ Parent ]
Here's 2006 MN final polls
Actual 2006 MN Senate Result:
Klobuchar (D) d. Kennedy (R) by 20%
http://www.uselectionatlas.org...
Last Rasmussen poll - Klobuchar by 14%
Last SUSA poll - Klobuchar by 16%
Last Star Tribune/ISG poll - Klobuchar by 20%
Last Mason-Dixon poll - Klobuchar by 10%

Actual 2006 MN Gov Result:
Pawlenty (R) d. Hatch (D) by 1%
http://www.uselectionatlas.org...
Last Rasmussen poll - Hatch by 2%
Last SUSA poll - Tie
Last Star Tribune/ISG poll - Hatch by 3%
Last Mason-Dixon poll - Hatch by 2%

Our Senate candidate Klobuchar outperformed the final round of polls bigtime while Gov. candidate Hatch underperformed.  Overall it appears that SUSA and Star Tribune/ISG did the best job polling 2006.

[ Parent ]
franken's had his worst month
and he's only 5-10 behind while he has a huge warchest and a great ground game.  larocco, noriega, and martin are all pretty much hopeless as much as i like them and hope they win.
[ Parent ]
a tier 1 recruit
would start with name rec and popularity, have high level electoral experience (governor, mayor of large city, congress), raise a lot of money, and have a solid campaign in place, and be leading in the polls from the day they enter.

if rybak, chris coleman, or walz had run they might fit this definition, but they didn't.  a tier 2 recruit would have some of the above but not all.  say have raised a lot of money, have a good campaign in place and name rec, and be trailing by no more than 10.  that's al franken and that's why he's a tier 2 recruit, like hagan and merkley (who have some electoral experience, but haven't raised much money and have been trailing by within 10).

i appreciate your tone, game08 and i do not see this as a "flaming fight."

[ Parent ]
Texas Recruiting
Who was there for Schumer to recruit in Texas?  You are right that there simply is not a good Democratic bench in Texas.  There simply is no one who would have been considered a top tier candidate in Texas this year.  I can't really think of many I would have considered a second tier candidate; maybe Bill White former mayor of Houston, but no one else comes to mind, and he supposedly wasn't interested in a run.
[ Parent ]
I believe Lampson was pressed to run
Considering he was pretty much written off as having no chance of re-election to TX-22 it may have made sense.  Lampson is an excellent fundraiser and probably would have made a good statewide candidate.  Of course he passed on the Senate race.  It's probably a good thing since his prospects for re-election are actually decent even if they are less than 50/50.
[ Parent ]
Lampson not bad
Lampson is probably as good a statewide candidate as any of the Texas Democratic Congressmen.  But, he would have very low name recognition statewide.  There are so many congressional districts that minor statewide officeholders (lt gov, AG, treasurer, etc.) are more recognized than congressmen and make better candidates for Senator or Governor.  Unfortunately, Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in what seems forever (especially if we count only nonincumbants), so the only Democrats who fit the bill are old, basically retired pols.

While Lampson would not have been a bad candidate IMO, there's really nothing especially attractive about him that makes me think he could win.  At least with Norriega, there feels like there's a chance he could catch on fire.  Right now, it still feels like we need something special to win statewide.

[ Parent ]
Sooo
What's with Thomas? I want to see those numbers.

Also. Disappointing numbers for Noriega. That would be a fantastic number for say Kleeb in Nebraska which is a small state with a cheap media market but for Noriega is super expensive Texas that's disappointing.

If he wins it's going to be a huge upset. He has the right profile but just can't raise money.

I dunno
930k is close to a million, which we all said would be a pretty solid fundraising quarter.  I dont think this is that bad, but it could've been better.  On the other hand, he really only has one more quarter to really pwn some fundraising expectations.  Damn it.
[ Parent ]
Who's "we"?
Certainly not me.  I think even a million would have been weak tea.

We're talking about Texas here -- you're going to need a hell of a lot more than the peanuts that Noriega is showing in order to win a race. They're previously stated that their goal is to raise $10 million to defeat Cornyn.  Well, with four months left on the clock, he's $7.5 million short.  He's gotta raise $1.88 million a month to catch up with his goal from here until the end of October.

[ Parent ]
It's nothing
He probably needed $3 million in the quarter for people to pay attention. Unfortunately it's a red state with an expensive media market and we have so many better pickup opportunities.
[ Parent ]
I totally agree with you here
I think pouring resources in Oklahoma and Kansas, which are smaller and cheaper to run in, would be far more effective than pushing for Texas.

Sure, Cornyn is odious and deserves to lose, but so does Roberts and Inhofe, and right now those are closer to being ours even without the fundraising.

[ Parent ]
Nothing from Thomas.
And I somehow doubt she'll file tonight. I don't know what's going on with her campaign.
[ Parent ]
Is there a penalty
or fine or something if you dont file on time?

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
[ Parent ]
There sure can be
Just ask Jeff Seemann. But I think the more immediate concern for Thomas is the potential black eye that a flub like this will give you.
[ Parent ]
She doesn't seem like a serious candidate
I had my doubts about her after every picture I saw of her had her in different hats (she didn't have chemo or something did she?  if so I take it back).  And her "42 reasons" video is lame.  The first 10 are stuff like "she'll fight for working people" and "she'll give a voice to the voiceless."  And se keeps using "her opponent" to describe Barrow.  He's a two-term incumbent Congressman!  Ugh.  

My guess is that she didn't file b/c she didn't raise enough to need to file.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
You need to file if you raise X amount of money. I believe
X = $5,000 dollars.  

She's raised almost $42,000 online thus far.  I hope she could have managed at least $20,000 on her own.  

[ Parent ]
not hugely worried
While Noriega does need to pick up the pace, I think the DSCC is giving this race a good hard look.  

If you really think about it,  they will have plenty of cash to spend here.  

Its getting to the point that they won't have to spend anything in Virginia or New Mexico.  New Hampshire isn't far behind in that category.  

That leaves races like Texas where the DSCC can play big in an effort to keep RNSC money out of Louisiana.  Texas will see its share of money.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
It's so expensive
Unless Cornyn has a macaca moment, I'm not sure the DSCC will come in for this race. They're going to likely be spending all their money on Alaska, Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, and a few of the others before Texas.
[ Parent ]
You think the DSCC will throw $10 million on this race?
If people are waiting for the DSCC to ride in like white knights saving the day for Noriega, they're going to be disappointed. Just ask Jack Carter.
[ Parent ]
10 million
the only way a race like this sees 10 million is if everything is going our way.  I'd like to wait out the remaining fundraising reports from the rest of our candidates before really strating to speculate where the money will be spent and where it won't.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
Yeah but you already assumed
...that Texas will "receive its share" of DSCC money. I think it's highly unlikely (at this point). If Chuck wants to put his money to use on a longshot race, he'll try something more affordable: Oklahoma or Kansas.
[ Parent ]
spreading out the cash
I think that when push comes to shove, the DSCC has to spend money in a state like Texas.  Maybe not a ton of money, but they have got to work to start establishing the future there.  Ultimately, with the weakness of Cornyn, the DSCC is going to have no choice but to try to win this race.  

How much money ends up here is going to depends on what the other options are.  That is what I will not speculate on at this time.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
The DSCC isn't interested in "establishing the future"...
That's the DNC's job. The DSCC is interested in winning as many races as they can -- period.
[ Parent ]
Umm. What?
"I think that when push comes to shove, the DSCC has to spend money in a state like Texas.  Maybe not a ton of money, but they have got to work to start establishing the future there.  Ultimately, with the weakness of Cornyn, the DSCC is going to have no choice but to try to win this race."

There are so many things wrong with this.  
1. Why does the DSCC have to spend money anywhere?  They spend money where they feel they need to, in order to help defend an incumbent Democrat, dethrone an incumbent Republican, or Hold/Takeover an open seat.  None of which seem applicable to Texas.  

2. If we're talking about establishing the future, We've got a laundry list already set for 2010 and it starts with states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Florida, etc.

3. Cornyn is weak, but he's from Texas, and the DSCC probably won't spend any money there.  By my count, the DSCC will spend money in Alaska, Mississippi-B, Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina, Maine, and Kentucky before they even touch Texas.  They may also spend money in New Hampshire and Louisiana.  That's 7-9 seats (Depending on how races play out) that come before Texas on the priority list.  It costs a lot of money to redefine "moderates" like Collins, Coleman, and Smith.  

DSCC COH: 38 Million
NRSC COH: 21 Million
Net +18 million.  

There's no way the DSCC is going to make it to Texas.  

[ Parent ]
2 for 1
James, doesn't matter how you slice it, whenever the DSCC spends money anywhere, not only are the supporting a candidate but that are building for the future.  Every voter identfied by the DSCC efforts is a voter that will be targetted in the coming years.  Every registration drive brings out more democratic voters.  EVERY democratic organization is not only focused on winning the race now, but on being able to win that race in the future as well.  

While the DSCC may only go after the hotspots where there are competetive senate races, that does not mean by any stretch, that they are not interested in building an in state organization that will win the next time a seat is up in that state.  They are interested in winning Senate races and that means ALL the senate races, now, and in the future.  

Jeremiah,  you ask why the DSCC "must" spend money here.  The reason is simple, Carol Shea-Porter and Nancy Boyda.  

While both of those people ran in house races, neither of them was supposed to win.  I had neither candidate on even my watch list in 2006.  I had no reason to suspect they were even going to come close, yet, they won.  

There have been many races in the past that have been close, that we all say, had the DCCC/DSCC spent a little money here, we could have won.  

The DSCC should not pass up an opportunity like this one.  The polling has been decently close, Cornyn is unpopular and weak, Obama is spending money in the state to help people like Lampson, Skelly and Doherty.  He focuses on the fact that there are races for Congress and State Senate and makes mention of the races for DA, County Judge and Sheriff in Harris County.  They make mention of the 5 seats we need to take control of the state house.  Now you don't see the Senate race on that list cause they don't mention it, but any efforts that help the chances in these down ballot races help Noriega too.  

This is a race that has the potential to be close and I don't think the DSCC wants to be sitting there on election day looking stupid because they didn't help Noriega and he lost by 2%

The DSCC may not have an infinite amount of money to spend on any race inparticular, but they simply can not afford to attempt to keep this race competetive.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Two things
1. There have been polls showing this close, and then a day later there's a poll with Noriega down by something like 15 points.  Unfortunately, the one with the obscure crosstabs were the polls showing it close.  

2. I agree with you here, although I'm assuming you mistyped it. "but they simply can not afford to attempt to keep this race competetive."  I agree.  They don't have the money to help Noriega.  That would require a lot of money, and there are too many races more competitive/more consistent in their polling, than this one.  

[ Parent ]
I don't agree
While the DCCC is greatly out raising the RNCC, the DSCC does not have a huge COH advantage over the .... wtf is their abbreviation. lol its late. I think the DSCC is going to put its money where it is need. Texas might be it, but its going to, in the end, do what it thinks that its going to take to win. And if Noriega can't raise his own funds, then they aren't going to want to waste the money on him, because that means there will be a good chance of him needing funds in 2014, and they might not have a 2 to 1 advantage then.
[ Parent ]
Is Noriega just raising on-line?
That's too much of his money on-line. He must not be really raising any outside of the netroots. Maybe those two-weeks off hurt him.

I thought they would come in at about 2 mil this quarter.

If he only puts up 2 mil total it's going to be a tough road to hoe.

Looks to me that Noriega is not really
raising his own money either. He got surrogate help from Webb and Tester. I obviously have no insider view, but mys suspicion is that he is not really working the phones and getting bundlers to raise for him.
[ Parent ]
TX-Sen is not a good investment of progressive dollars.
TX is very expensive to run statewide and the candidate looks pretty hopeless. Local TX money would be better spent on winning several competitive state legislature races.

I think the senate races with the best ROI are probably ME, MS, OR, MN, NC. Maybe NH and CO, but I think we got those in the bag already.

Oh God it would be so awesome to have Al Franken in the Senate. I can just imagine the veins bulging and blood pressure rising on the all the right-wing a--h---s when the little green checkbox next to his photo lights up on CNN on election night.

[ Parent ]
GA-08, Marshall
isn't $165K rather low for a very vulnerable incumbent in a Republican leaning district with a well funded challenger?  His cash on hand is still good, though.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
Yeah, I don't know what his deal is.
I'm guessing laziness.
[ Parent ]
Marshall and Barrow look like they
are getting off kind of easy compared to last time.  Probably doesn't feel obligated.  
[ Parent ]
Not Marshall
He has a tough challenger this time around.  Maybe not as tough as Collins in 2006, but a serious challenger still.
[ Parent ]
My main barometer: Money
2006, Marshall was outspent 2 million to 1.8 million.  

So far in 2008, Marshall is leading 1 million to 577K raised thus far.  Definitely not as big of a challenge as in 2006.  

[ Parent ]
i have to agree with your unfortunate use of that as a barometer


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Have faith in Noriega
I know everybody wants to see Texas in the bag and that more than a few of you are sophisticated enough to be wary of symptoms of poor/weak fundraising.  In this particular instance, use netroots clout to press the Noriega campaign to step up its fundraising, but... keep the faith!

I know for a fact that the Noriega campaign has stepped up its fundraising efforts.  Unfortunately, it hasn't been in time to show up by the June 30th reporting deadline.  But it is real and there is a lot of potential to be tapped.

In response to the question about whether the campaign is fundraising beyond the netroots, yes, it is!  I know that Noriega is making the calls that he should, the campaign is doing events throughout the state, and the campaign is doing telefundraising.

Can the campaign do more?  Probably.  But I would encourage the netroots make its (justified) criticisms constructive.  Don't just bitch and whine.  If you see weaknesses, point them out and provide suggestions if possible.

Texas Democrats like Noriega are victims of the Texas Repug gerrymandering.  Because they have been thrown into highly concentrated Democratic districts, they have not had to learn important campaign skills like fundraising like they would have had to if they were in more competitive general elections.  The best use of our criticisms is to steer him and his campaign through a crash course on fundraising if we have viable suggestions to make.

This race is too important to write off!  The Obama campaign, for their own reasons, has decided to not write off Texas.  We shouldn't either in regards to this Senate race.

great response
I'm on it. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
I like your way of thinking
Just such a shame he can't seem to get it together on the cash front. He looks good on paper as a candidate and Cornyn is a weak incumbent. The stumbling block is just that Texas is such a damn expensive media market. Tough decisions to me made but personally I trust Chuck and his team to make them.  
[ Parent ]
Obama isn't writing off Texas so his coattails have an affect
on their state house races.  He knows how important that will be.  He isn't doing it for Noriega.  

And yes, you need money to win.  90% of the time, (With the exception of 2006) the candidate with the most money wins.  

[ Parent ]
Former Senator Jesse Helms dies at 86
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...

Out of respect for African-Americans, gays and every other group who was repressed and denied constitutional rights because of this man I will not give the usual RIP for this "man."

The one thing I'm sorry
Is that Helms didn't live 6 more months to see an African-American sworn in as President.
[ Parent ]
Console yourself with the fact one won the Democratic nomination
And of course the North Carolina primary on the way there!
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I dont usually show disrespect for the dead, it's just tacky, but f him.
[ Parent ]
CQ
Listen to this from a CQ article about Helms:
he is regarded as one of the chamber's friendliest senators by Democratic and Republican colleagues and congressional staff.

hmmm.... Carol Mosley-Braun might have a different opinion
Soon after the Senate vote on the Confederate flag insignia, Sen. Jesse Helms (R.-N.C.) ran into Mosely-Braun in a Capitol elevator. Helms turned to his friend, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R.-Utah), and said, "Watch me make her cry. I'm going to make her cry. I'm going to sing 'Dixie' until she cries." He then proceeded to sing the song about "the good life" during slavery to Mosely-Braun


"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
[ Parent ]
Florida Governor Crist engaged... again
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/b...

This makes his 5th engagement.  Yes, the engagement is to a woman, despite the little problem that he's gay.  Guess he's pulling out all the stops to make himself presentable as a VP pick.  You aren't fooling anyone Governor.

wait
Maybe he just has a wide stance too!
[ Parent ]
CA-26
Russ warner (challenging David Dreier) reports over $100,000 raised in Q2, with COH ~ $150,000.
Uh...
I don't think that's right. If you look at the link you posted, it's clear that those numbers are from a year ago. The first line of the release is telling:

With the general election more than 16 months away

I should hope that he has amassed more CoH in the meantime!

[ Parent ]
Give to Rice, not Noriega.
   I think Rice now has a better chance of winning than does Noriega.  Rice is a good fundraiser and has done an excellent job of building his favorables.  He's running in inexpensive media markets in a state which elects Democrats to statewide office frequently.  Rice is a true blue progressive running against the worst senator there is, Inhofe.  Rice has the right resume to win, and as crisitunity showed, his election would be the biggest improvement of any senate race.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
I'm partial because I'm an Okie
But I agree. Rice is a better investment. Word is he had another very strong fundraising quarter.

And you gottsa believe that green 527s will play here if it is a race. Doubt 527s will go play against Cornyn.

[ Parent ]
Who the heck is Democrat Bill Jones (GA-06)?
That's an impressive haul for a guy running in an insanely republican district who I've never heard of until now.
Here's his wikipedia bio
Which sounds like it was written by Jones' campaign.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

Not that he has much chance in an R+18 district.

[ Parent ]
Chet Edwards, Jim Matheson, Gene Taylor, Gary Trauner, Walt Minnick...
Granted, though, it's much harder to win a very R+ district in the South than it is in the West.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Exceptions that prove the rule
Chet Edwards and Jim Matheson were originally elected to far more Dem-friendly districts that were redistricted to force them out of office.  Edwards had more than a decade to establish himself and Matheson was the son of a popular Utah governor, and both barely survived redistricting (while half a dozen Dems in Texas were taken out).  Trauner and Minnick, well, let's not count our chickens just yet (and as you say, the West is an entirely different beast than the South).

Gene Taylor is the only one who has actually won a race as a non-incumbent in a ruby-red district, and that was in a special election.  Jones is up against a non-batshitinsane incumbent during a presidential election...I still say he has no chance.  I'd be happy to eat my words, though.

[ Parent ]
Very good post
All good points.  And even Gene Taylor probably got into office in part because it was the early 90's, before the 1994 debacle when Dems still had little trouble winning in MS.

Also, some of the PVI index numbers can be misleading.  I'll bet after this year some of extreme R+15 or worse districts in the west move significantly in our favor.  Obama is all but guaranteed to do MUCH better than Kerry or Gore did in places like Texas, Utah and Wyoming.  

[ Parent ]
I agree
I've always believed a lot of those huge GOP PVIs were inflated because Democrats refused to play in those states.  In particular, I expect to see PVIs in Texas and Massachusetts to shrink, and in Western states (I wouldn't be surprised to see Montana and North Dakota with PVIs in the mid-single digits).  The South is the only place where Republican PVIs probably won't decrease, since I expect most of Obama's gains will come from heavily black districts that already lean Dem.
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts may not be affected much
Kerry actually got a lower percentage of the vote than Gore there (in fact, almost everywhere but NC). Granted, Obama's polled badly there in the past, but he seems to be returning to standard Dem performance levels there now.
[ Parent ]
Hey:
What did you guys think about the "Big Bad John" campaign ad that the Cornyn campaign showed at the Texas GOP convention a few weeks ago?

My take was that it was corny, ridiculous and downright stupid. To me Cornyn seemed fake all dressed up in that cowboy outfit.

Big Bad John
It was hilarious, I loved the Noriega campaign's response to it too.
[ Parent ]
It worked for Dubya
Once he put on the ridiculous cowboy outfit and was pictured clearing brush on his ranch many fell for the ficticious image.
[ Parent ]
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the 2Q Fundraising Reports | 94 comments

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