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2Q Fundraising Reports vs. the Saucermen From Mars

by: James L.

Tue Jul 08, 2008 at 2:16 AM EDT


GA-12:
     Regina Thomas (D): $42K raised; $25K CoH (est.)

Thomas still hasn't filed her pre-primary financial report with the FEC (which was due on the 3rd), so these estimates came straight from the candidate. Considering that Thomas' $42K figure tracks very closely to her current total on Actblue, it's very clear that blogs like Democrats.com and the Blue America crew are doing most of the heavy lifting for her in terms of fundraising. Not a great sign, but it wouldn't be wise to write off her chances in next week's primary.

NY-25:
     Dan Maffei (D): ~$470K raised; >$950K CoH

LA-01:
     Jim Harlan (D): $500K personal donation $70K raised + $525K personal loan; $554K CoH

AZ-01:
     Ann Kirkpatrick (D): "significantly" >$260K raised

AZ-03:
     Bob Lord (D): >$220K raised

NY-10:
     Kevin Powell (D): ~$100K CoH

IL-10:
     Mark Kirk (R-inc): >$900K raised; $2.85M CoH

     Dan Seals (D): $635K raised; $1.17M CoH

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | ...Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying... | I Know What You Raised...
James L. :: 2Q Fundraising Reports vs. the Saucermen From Mars
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There was a rumor about this thread
said it was going to be renamed 2Q Fundraising Reports and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skulls.

Guess the creators liked the original title more.


But were they from Mars
Or the "space between spaces"???

[bangs head against wall]


[ Parent ]
Kirkpatrick
Kirkpatrick's haul is pretty lackluster in a district that should be an easy win for the Dems. I think that's just one of the many omenous signs about her. It's a shame that we have to settle for her when there's a much more progressive candidate (Howard Shanker) that has been marginalized by the DCCC.

Glad to see the Dan's (Maffei and Seals) doing well though. Unlike Kirkpatrick, they should both be solid progressives.  


Maybe you didn't read the post carefully...
But Kirkpatrick says she raised "significantly better" than $260K, which was what she raised last quarter. So chances are that she had a good quarter.

[ Parent ]
Why let facts get in the way
when you have an ax to grind?

[ Parent ]
Kirkpatrick
I don't have an ax to grind. I just think it's a shame when we rush to a coronation nomination and get stuck with a lackluster "centrist" in the mold of Carney and Mahoney.

And in that massive district (geography-wise), $260,000 last quarter IS a pretty lousy haul. Especially considering that both parties have essentially written this race off.

I'm just saying that we'll probably look back on this race 2 years from now, after we win the seat by 10-15 points, and see that she's racked up a pretty mediocre (at best) voting record...  


[ Parent ]
You know what I'll be looking at in 2010?
When she wins re-election.  Funny how the two people you named, Mahoney and Carney, are both facing tough re-elections.  Those "Mediocre at best" records are probably better than having a record that is too liberal for the district, setting us up for a loss in the near future while Republican challengers are still biting.  

This is like the McMahon v. Harrison debate all over again.  


[ Parent ]
There's mediocre at best...
Then there's giving aid and cover to our enemies. Mahoney and Carney undermine the Democratic brand and don't even appear to have good links within their communities. Both of them are vulnerable if the national mood switches back towards Republicans or if they don't get a good redistricting.

I'd rather hold a seat with a progressive who will face tough re-election races and probably won't last more than threee terms than with a mealy-mouthed centrist who will triangulate against the party and still lose within three terms.

None of that is to attack Kirkpatrick - I know very little about her - but the evidence just isn't conclusive yet that any conservative Dem will overperform a liberal one in a swing district. Character matters, and particularly now that we have a decent majority, it should be taken into account.


[ Parent ]
Republicans
We could always just give the seat back to the Republicans, I mean,  that appears to be what your trying to do anyway.  

Long will I support the Blue Dogs as long as they fit in with their districts.  Idiots like Lipinski need to defeated but there is no way in hell a liberal would have won these races last year and we'd have a Republican sitting in this seats.  

Until some people understand this, the netroots will never be an effective tool for promoting the Democratic name.  This is why I've all but ditched DailyKos for its decision to go after Dems next election instead of continuing the effort to elect more Dems.  Target the worst offenders.  I'm pretty sure Jeremiah has a list somewhere of Dems who don't vote with their district.  Take the top 5 from that year after year and hit them hard, but going after the Dems now, is a recepie for handing the Republicans back the power.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
We're like, 1-3 or 1-4 for primary challenges in '08.
We should only try 1-2 per primary cycle if we're actually going to win them.  We should shoot for Lipinski and Barrow in 2010.  

[ Parent ]
Kos
Kos is still trying to get more Democrats elected; almost all the money raised and front page real estate is dedicated to that.  As far as going after Democrats, the only ones I can recall Kos has pimped challengers to since the November 2006 election, have been Lipinski, Wynn, and Jefferson.  Totally agree with him on all three of those.  He certainly has talked more about shifting toward electing better Democrats.  I'll wait and see what this means when the rubber hits the road before jumping ship (if I may mix my metaphors).

[ Parent ]
I don't think you get it.
Mahoney and Carney are favored in their bids for re-election.  They can't get hammered for being "out of touch" with their district.  Kirkpatrick probably won't face serious challenges, as she will be a good fit for her district.  Ah la VA-11 Connelly and NY-13 McMahon vs Byrne and Harrison.  Mahoney and Carney are better fits for their district and will survive longer than 2010, which is the point I was making.  They will survive.  Unlike someone who doesn't fit their district, and is inherently unelectable, and can't survive the "mood change"

[ Parent ]
Alright
How much did Shanker raise then?

[ Parent ]
I disagree
How is a candidate in a "massive" district (geography-wise) supposed to fundraise better than a candidate in a smaller district (geography-wise). Those larger districts tend to be more rural, as they are less populated. The people in AZ-01, esp the many Indian reservations should be much poorer than the (potential) constituents in urban or suburban districts, even though the CDs there should be much "smaller".  

[ Parent ]
If Shanker is such a great candidate, why doesn't he hold local or state office already?


[ Parent ]
Who's Kevin Powell
or what is NY-10?  I haven't heard about this district before on SSP.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Some primary challenge. I doubt it means jack really.


[ Parent ]
(fake) PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
Edolphus Towns - 32%
Kevin Powell - 30%
Jack Really - 38%

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
He's Kevin from the Real World!
He played the role of 'angry black guy' in the cast of the very first Real World on MTV in 1992. Of course, depending on your age, that may be ancient history to you, like saying "He's Kevin from the Pelopenesian War."

Anyway, he's got some celebrity supporters (Dave Chappelle held a fundraiser for him) and I think a lot of young activist types are enthused about him (and/or enthused to get rid of the complacent Towns). But he hasn't held office before, and I doubt he has the networks built to dislodge Towns, whose picture is next to "entrenched" in the dictionary.


[ Parent ]
Has there ever been a show title that's such a misnomer?
Normally, I would say that having "Real World cast member" on your resume should be enough to disqualify anyone from ever running for anything.  But as I understand it, the first season or three were actually pretty good, so this guy might get a pass on that front.

[ Parent ]
Nah
It was good up until like season 9 when it became more about drinking, sex, and fighting.

Also, another real worlder whose name I dont remember from the Boston season lives in Kagen's district and has been mentioned as someone to run against him in the future.  I remember reading he was possibly going to run this time but Gard ran again.

He was the lumber jack guy who wore glasses and was pretty hot.


[ Parent ]
Sean I believe
He is, I recall Attorney General in some city there in Wisconsin. Not really sure where, and I might have read that wrong. He was fairly conservative, but also, you were right, pretty hot.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Sean. He married Rachel from RW San Francisco, a lovely Young Republican in her own right.

[ Parent ]
Any word from Debbie Cook in CA-46?
Her thank you letter said she had met her goal, but not that the goal was.  How'd she do?

haha
I work for the campaign and I don't really know. I have a feeling CA-46 is going to be one of the later releases. Be patient. haha Oh, and feel free to donate more. haha I asked some of my friends to donate, and found her thank you note in the outgoing mail at the offices today. Made me laugh. haha

[ Parent ]
what did I say
900,000 thousand for Kirk in this quarter.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

A Couple from Minnesota
http://www.mncampaignreport.co...

Steve Sarvi (D) MN-2 Q208 Raised: $145,889

ยท Cash on hand: $95,000

Erik Paulsen's (R) MN-3 Q208 Raised: $600,000  . COH $1.1 mill

Strong numbers from Paulsen in the open 3rd District. Ashwin Madia (D) has a tough target to shoot for.


Heh, the next title needs to be
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the 2Q Fundraising Reports :P

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

GA-12
After seeing these numbers I hope that Barrow wins this primary and next year we find a strong, progressive candidate who actually wants to put forth some effort in the primary, and who will work hard to represent this district, not somebody who wants to do as little as possible and hope to sneak by.


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