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Monday, October 23, 2006

The Great Swing State Project Prediction Contest

Posted by James L.

(Bumped!)

In honor of Swing State Project's third birthday, David and I have come up with a fun party game that we can all get involved in: an electoral prediction contest! We've handpicked twelve hot House and Senate races from all over the country (and one Gubernatorial race as the tiebreaker) for you to mull over and submit your predictions. The rules are simple: Only one entry per person will be accepted (so if you post multiple revisions, we're only going to look at your last post), submitted as a comment on this thread (NO e-mails). Submissions will be accepted until midnight Pacific on Tuesday, October 24. There will be prizes involved (nothing fancy, though, except maybe a nice looking SSP t-shirt...).

Scores will be based on the lowest aggregate margin of error. For example, if you predicted the MT-Sen race as Burns 55, Tester 45 (R+10) and the result on November 7 was Tester 55, Burns 45 (D+10), your margin of error would be 20 points, as 20 represents the gap between D+10 and R+10. If, on the other hand, you predicted Tester 60, Burns 40 (D+20), your margin of error would be 10 points. Clear as mud? To reiterate, the key here is to see how close the gap between Democratic and Republican candidates in your predictions is to the gap between Democratic and Republican candidates on election day. Several of these races have fringe indie candidacies, but there's no need to make predictions for third party candidates (except for Lieberman), as we're measuring the gap between the Democrats and Republicans, not how close your numbers are to the actual percentages.

Well, that was a mouthful. Let's get on with it! Here are the 12+1 races that David and I have selected. Put the valuable knowledge that you have gained from your daily readership of Swing State Project to the test! (Haha.)

MT-Sen: Tester (D) v. Burns (R)
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) v. Lieberman (CfL)
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) v. Corker (R)
PA-06: Murphy (D) v. Gerlach (R)
FL-22: Klein (D) v. Shaw (R)
NM-01: Madrid (D) v. Wilson (R)
NH-02: Hodes (D) v. Bass (R)
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) v. Sali (R)
MN-01: Walz (D) v. Gutknecht (R)
OH-12: Shamansky (D) v. Tiberi (R)
CA-04: Brown (D) v. Doolittle (R)
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) v. Smith (R)

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R) v. Bell (D) v. Kinky (I) v. Strayhorn (I)

TX-Gov is a special case, so we're not going to measure the R/D gap, but rather how close your predictions are to the actual election day vote distribution.

Submit your predictions soon! You have until 12pm Pacific on the night of Tuesday, October 24 to submit your predictions. If you are interested in claiming a prize, please include your e-mail address with your submission. If you don't want to do that, check again once the contest is over (i.e., after November 7th), when we will post a list of winners. I'm really looking forward to seeing all of your predictions.

Posted at 10:30 PM in 2006 Elections | Technorati

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Comments

Right well i'll take a shot at it.

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 55% Burns (R) 45%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 44% Lieberman (Cfl) 43%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06 Murphy (D) 54% Gerlach (R) 46%
FL-22 Klein (D) 53% Shaw (R) 47%
NM-01 Madrid (D) 56% Wilson (R) 44%
NH-02 Bass (R) 51% Hodes (D) 49%
ID-01 Grant (D) 47% Sali (R) 47%
MN-01 Walz (D) 51% Gil (R) 49%
OH-12 Tiberi (R) 55% Shamansky (D) 45%
CA-04 Doolittle (R) 54% Brown (D) 46%
NE-03 Smith (R) 56% Kleeb (D) 44%.

I hope my final few are wrong heh.

Posted by: D in FL. at October 19, 2006 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here are my predictions:

Tester 52, Burns 45
Lamont 43, Lieberman 41
Ford 51, Corker 48
Murphy 52, Gerlach 47
Klein 51, Shaw 48
Madrid 55, Wilson 45
Bass 52, Hodes 48
Sali 51, Grant 48
Walz 52, Gutnecht 48
Tiberi 53, Shamansky 47
Doolittle 54, Brown 46
Kleeb 52, Smith 48
Perry 38, Bell 32, Strayhorn 18, Friedman 12

David Gikow
dhgslr@aol.com

Posted by: DaveGFromNYC at October 19, 2006 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Montana-Tester(D) 51-47
CT-Sen-Lieberman(I) 46-43
Tennessee Senate-Corker(R) 52-47
PA-06-Murphy(D) 51-48
FL-22-Shaw(R) 52-47
NM-01-Madrid(D) 51-48
NH-02-Bass(R) 53-45
ID-01-Sali(R) 54-45
MN-01-Gutchnetch(R) 53-46
OH-13-Tiberi(R) 56-43
CA-04-Doolittle(R) 53-46
NE-03-Smith(R) 54-45

Posted by: Sean at October 19, 2006 05:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You guys are forgetting TX-Gov!

Posted by: James L. at October 19, 2006 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-sen: Tester 52-Burns 47
CT-sen: Lamont 43-Lieberman 40
TN-sen: Ford 50-Corker 49
PA-06: Murphy 51-Gerlach 48
FL-22: Klein 50-Shaw 49
NM-01: Madrid 54-Wilson 45
NH-02: Bass 54-Hodes 45
ID-01: Sali 48-Grant 47
MN-01: Gutnecht 51-Walz 49
OH-13: Tiberi 55-Shamansky 44
CA-04: Doolittle 52-Brown 47
NE-03: Smith 54-Kleeb 46
TX-Gov: Perry 35, Bell 29, Strayhorn 22, Friedman 16

Adam K

Posted by: PolitiKretz at October 19, 2006 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% Burns 46% (R)
CT-Sen: Lieberman (CFL) 47% Lamont (D) 44%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 50% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06: Murphey (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22: Klein (D) 50% Shaw (R) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02: Bass (R) 52% Hodes (D) 47%
ID-01: Sali (R) 50% Grant (D) 46%
MN-01: Gil (R) 52% Walz (D) 48%
OH-13: Tiberi (R) 54% Schmansky (D) 45%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03: Smith 54% (R) Kleeb (D) 45%
TX-Gov: Perry 36%, Bell 29%, Strayhorn 22%, Friedman 13%

Posted by: AC4508 at October 19, 2006 06:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have suggestion: I do like the system you've set up, but I think, somehow, extra points should be awarded for picking the winner.
For example, everyone thinks the TN-Sen race is going to be decided within 5 points. Therefore, no matter what the outcome is, everyone is going to be about the same percentage differential. However, not everyone has the same winner. This is also true with CT-Sen and FL-22. Just my two cents.

Posted by: AC4508 at October 19, 2006 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 52% Burns (R) 48%
CT-Sen: Lieberman (I) 46% Lamont (D) 43%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22: Shaw (R) 51% Klein (D) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02: Bass (R) 54% Hodes (D) 46%
ID-01: Sali (R) 54% Grant (D) 46%
MN-01: Gil (R) 52% Walz (D) 48%
OH-13: Tiberi (R) 56% Shamansky (D) 44%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03: Smith (R) 56% Kleeb (D) 44%

TX-Gov: Perry 38%, Bell 26%, Strayhorn 22%, Friedman 14%

Posted by: blueryan at October 19, 2006 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 49, Burns 45
CT-Sen: Lamont 42, Lieberman 41 (Schlesinger gets 15%, the rest get 2%)
TN-Sen: Ford 50.5, Corker 49.5
PA-6: Murphy 51.5, Gerlach 48.5
FL-22: Shaw 51, Klein 49
NM-1: Madrid 51, Wilson 49
NH-2: Bass 53, Hodes 43
ID-1: Sali 50, Grant 46
MN-1: Walz 52, Gutknecht 47
OH-12: Tiberi 52, Shamansky 48
CA-4: Doolittle 52.5, Brown 47.5
NE-3: Smith 52, Kleeb 48

TX-Gov: Perry 35%, Bell 28%, Kinky 17, Grandma 14

Posted by: dpinzow at October 19, 2006 08:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Already made my predictions this past weekend, so I'm on record with all of these guesses with my credibility (what little I've ever had, anyway) on the line. Blocking out third-party noise everywhere other than CT-Sen and TX-Gov, here goes....

MT-Sen: Tester 52, Burns 45
CT-Sen: Lieberman 48, Lamont 41, Schlesinger 10
TN-Sen: Corker 52, Ford 47
PA-06: Murphy 51, Gerlach 47
FL-22: Shaw 52, Klein 47
NM-01: Madrid 51, Wilson 47
NH-02: Bass 53, Hodes 45
ID-01: Sali 52, Grant 43
MN-01: Gutknecht 50, Walz 45
OH-12: Tiberi 57, Shamansky 42
CA-04: Doolittle 51, Brown 46
NE-03: Smith 56, Kleeb 42

TX-Gov: Perry 38, Bell 22, Strayhorn 20, Friedman 19

Posted by: Mark at October 19, 2006 09:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 54 Burns (R)46
CT-Sen: Lamont (D)46 v. Lieberman (CfL)48
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford 50(D) v. Corker (R)49
PA-06: Murphy 52(D) v. Gerlach (R)48
FL-22: Klein (D)48 v. Shaw (R)52
NM-01: Madrid (D)54 v. Wilson (R)46
NH-02: Hodes (D)49 v. Bass (R)51
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant 46(D) v. Sali (R)54
MN-01: Walz (D) 51 v. Gutknecht (R)49
OH-12: Shamansky 51(D) v. Tiberi (R)49
CA-04: Brown (D)49 v. Doolittle (R)51
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb 51(D) v. Smith (R)49

And in the event of a tie, this will seal the deal:
TX-Gov: Perry (R)37 v. Bell 26(D) v. Kinky (I)18 v. Strayhorn (I)13

Posted by: DavidG at October 19, 2006 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My Predicitions, David:
1. Tester's teflon coat is something that even Reagan would envy. 54-46, in Tester's favor.
2. Schleinsger may take more Republican votes than expected. 44-42-12 In Lamont's favor.
3. Ford's got a 3-7 point lead in the polls, but Corker's got a butt load more money he can spend, and the NRSCC and RNC are going to chip in with some ads. Not to mention there going to put forth a massive 5-8 million dollar GOTOV effort here. Expect that work against Ford. 50-49 in Ford's favor.
4. This district has a large base of loyal far right Republicans in Exurban Chester County. It's too evenly divided, and Gerlach is too strong a campaigner for Murphy to come close to running away with this. Two things will determine this, whether Murhpy can win in Democratic, but socially conservative Berks county, where she lost last time, and/or how big she make her Montgomery County margin. Casey may help her in Berks, this is 51.5-48 in Murphy's favor.
5. This race between a well known State Senator, and a 13 term incumbent in this evenly divided district's going to be one if the closest races in the country. 50.5-49.5 in Klein's favor.
6. Wilson's one of the best campaingers in the Republican caucus, Madrid's fundraising the last two quarters hasa been a huge disapointment, while Wilson's has seemed more like an incumbent Senatior than an incumbent U.S. Representative. She's going to spend a ton of money, and this is a very evenly divided district, Look for 50.5-49 in Madrid's favor.
7. I remain skeptical on this race, due a lack of major polling here. If Republican turnout is low enough, and Democratic high enough, maybe Hodes can win 51-49. But, I believe we'll see this on Election day, 52-48 in Bass' favor.
8. Democrats at the DCCC are going to watch with joy as Republicans have to waste 2-3 million dollars in GOTV and ads for WA-05, ID-01, and Gary Trauner in Wyoming, but they're not going to jump in, except they may drop about 400,000 dollars in the cheap WA-05 media market, becuase this used to be a Democratic seat, and they're still sore over 2004. Sali's a crazy nut, and ass, but the GOP moderates will probably coalice around a single moderate candidate in 2008 to beat him. 52-48 in Sali's favor.
9. Democratic turnout is normally depressed in Rochester and MN-01 during midterms. Hopefully Waltz, and the heated Gubernatorial, and Senatorial races will bring a heavy turnout here. Gutneckt has a moderate image, and he won't get beat this year. 52-48 in Gutneckt's favor.
10. Shamansky is going to spend a bunch of money, but will it get him anywhere. Ohio Republicans are however, bedridden with Pneumonia right now, so maybe... Anyway, 53-47 in Tiberi's favor.
11. CA-04 is just too conservative for Doolittle to lose in, his ethics haven't been as widely published as I'd wish, he may actually benefit from Noe and DeLay, because they cloud media coverage of his own problems. Bush got like 63% here, and Brown is just too liberal for this district. 54-46 in Doolittle's favor.
12. Are you kidding. Kleeb is a great candidate, but Bush got 77% here, then add the fact that this district has only elected 5 Democrats in the past 100 years, and only three since the 50s, and none in the last twenty something years, and you see how hopeless it is here. Still it'll be a lot closer than normal. 53-47 in Smith's favor.
13. Perry 36, Strayhorn 28, Bell 24, Friedman 22, This is really hard race to get a handle on.

Posted by: ArkDem at October 19, 2006 09:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT SEN TESTOR-54, BURNS-46
CT SEN LAMONT-42, SCHLESINGER-14, LIEBERMAN-44,
TN SEN FORD-51, CORKER-49
PA 6TH MURPHY-53, GERLACH-47
FL 22ND KLEIN-48, SHAW-52
NM 1ST MADRID-52, WILSON-48
NH 2ND HODES-45, BASS-55
ID 1ST GRANT-48, SALI-52
MN 1ST WALTZ-50, GUTKNECHT-50
OH 12TH SHAMANSKY-44, TIBERTI-56
CA 4TH BROWN-49, DOOLITTLE-51
NE 3RD KLEEB-51, SMITH-49

TX GOV BELL-35, PERRY-42, STRAYHORN-14,
FRIEDMAN-9

Posted by: OrlTiger38 at October 19, 2006 09:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just to add on

Perry (R) 38% Bell (D) 26% Strayhorn (I) 20% Kinky (I) 16%.

Posted by: D in FL. at October 19, 2006 09:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester(D)53 - Burns(R)47
CT-Sen: Lamont(D)47 - Lieberman(CfL)43
TN-Sen: Ford(D)51 - Corker(R)49
PA-06: Murphy(D)54 - Gerlach(R)46
FL-22: Klein(D)49 - Shaw(R)51
NM-01: Madrid(D)52 - Wilson(R)48
NH-02: Hodes(D)44 - Bass(R)56
ID-01: Grant(D)48 - Sali(R)52
MN-01: Walz(D)49 - Gutknecht(R)51
OH-12: Shamansky(D)48 - Tiberi(R)52
CA-04: Brown(D)46 - Doolittle (R)54
NE-03: Kleeb(D)45 - Smith(R)55

And in the event of a tie, this will seal the deal:
TX-Gov: Perry(R)40 - Bell(D)20 - Kinky(I)13 - Strayhorn(I)17

Posted by: beeswax49 at October 19, 2006 10:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nice picks of the races to guess, most of them will be pretty tough to call!

I'm going to wait a couple days and put in my picks on the weekend. Want to think about it some more first :)

Posted by: bogun at October 19, 2006 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tester 53, Burns 46
Lamont 44, Lieberman 43
Ford 50, Corker 49
Murphy 50, Gerlach 49
Shaw 51, Klein 48
Madrid 52, Wilson 48
Bass 50, Hodes 49
Sali 53, Grant 44
Gutnecht 51, Walz 49
Tiberi 51, Shamansky 48
Doolittle 55, Brown 44
Smith 55, Kleeb 43
Perry 37, Bell 29, Strayhorn 19, Friedman 15

mbcarl@gmail.com

Posted by: mbcarl at October 20, 2006 04:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tester 57 BURNS 43

it confuses me that we aren't to include SCHLESINGER as whatever vote he draws does impact on the LaMONT LIEBERMAN ratio that said:

LaMONT 44 LIEBERMAN 56
3way Schlesinger 8 Lamont 43 LIEBERMAN 49

FORD 53 CORKER 47
MURPHY 53 GERLACH 47
KLEIN 54 SHAW 46
MADRID 53 WILSON 47
HODES 49 BASS 51
GRANT 50 SALI 50

(advantage GRANT in upset in Idaho. I have distant cousins here and they are voting GRANT (Dem) for the first time in their entire lives because of the campaign SALI has run. They view the Club of Growth interference in the election as interferring with their choice and it flared their Libertarian West impulses apparently)

WALZ 52 GUTKNECHT 48
SHAMANSKY 48 TIBERI 52
BROWN 51 DOOLITTLE 49 (

DOOLITTLE's recent BROWN backs ACLU, ACLU backed NAMBLA (New York v. FEDER, therefore BROWN backs pedohpiles fliers were as low as anything I have seen anywhere in America. DOOLITTLE is the proud recipient of biggest SLIME in 2006 award. But the fact an incumbent is stooping to this means the ABRAMOFF ties are sapping his support and panic mode is rampant)
KLEEB 47 SMITH 53

PERRY 34 BELL 21 FRIEDMAN 19 STRAYHORN 26

Wish Wi-8 had made your list GARD v. KAGEN

Posted by: walja at October 20, 2006 07:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53 v. Burns (R) 47
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 41 v. Lieberman (CfL) 44
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 51 v. Corker (R) 49
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53 v. Gerlach (R) 47
FL-22: Klein (D) 49 v. Shaw (R) 51
NM-01: Madrid (D) 51 v. Wilson (R) 49
NH-02: Hodes (D) 46 v. Bass (R) 54
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 44 v. Sali (R) 56
MN-01: Walz (D) 51 v. Gutknecht (R) 49
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 52 v. Tiberi (R) 48
CA-04: Brown (D) 51 v. Doolittle (R) 49
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 42 v. Smith (R) 58

TIEBREAKER
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 38 v. Bell (D) 30 v. Kinky (I) 17 v. Strayhorn (I) 15

Posted by: Brian at October 20, 2006 10:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

These are not my desires, just my best guess.

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53 v. Burns (R) 47
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 45 v. Lieberman (CfL) 55
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 50 v. Corker (R) 50 (Ford wins narrowly)
PA-06: Murphy (D)52 v. Gerlach (R)48
FL-22: Klein (D)48 v. Shaw (R)52
NM-01: Madrid (D)54 v. Wilson (R)46
NH-02: Hodes (D)51 v. Bass (R)49
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D)50 v. Sali (R)50 (Sali wins narrowly)
MN-01: Walz (D)51 v. Gutknecht (R)49
OH-12: Shamansky (D)46 v. Tiberi (R)54
CA-04: Brown (D)46 v. Doolittle (R)54
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D)49 v. Smith (R)51

And the tiebreaker:
TX-Gov: Perry (R)34 v. Bell (D)22 v. Kinky (I)18 v. Strayhorn (I)26

Posted by: Nuisance Industry at October 20, 2006 11:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: D+4
CT-Sen: Lieberman +6
TN-Sen: D+0.2
PA-06: D+4
FL-22: R+5
NM-01: D+5
NH-02: R+7
ID-01 R+6
MN-01: R+2
OH-12: R+8
CA-04: R+9
NE-03: R+6

TX-Gov:
Perry:36
Bell:24
Kinky:19
Strayhorn:21

Sorry for the gloomy predictions, guys! I do believe we CAN win all of them, and we should contest all of them as hard as we can. I think we'll win the House and Senate by slim margins, just barely overcoming some kind of despicable Rovian shenanigans, but we can build on that in 2008 (UDALL VS. ALLARD!).

Posted by: X Stryker at October 20, 2006 11:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just a reminder: no one's going to think less of anyone who picks "gloomy" numbers. We picked some races that are tough to call for a reason!

Posted by: James L. at October 20, 2006 12:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% Burns (R) 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 43% Lieberman (CFL) 41%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 50.5% Corker (R) 49.5%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22: Klein (D) 54% Shaw (R) 46%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 54% Wilson (R) 46%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 50.5% Bass (R) 49.5%
ID-01: Sali (R) 56% Grant (D) 44%
MN-01: Walz (D) 52% Gil (R) 48%
OH-12: Tiberi (R) 56% Shamansky (D) 43%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 51% Brown (D) 49%
NE-03: Smith (R) 54% Kleeb (D) 46%.

Posted by: HeedTheMessenger at October 20, 2006 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Oh yeah... Dan111886@yahoo.com

Posted by: HeedTheMessenger at October 20, 2006 01:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 52% Burns (R) 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 43% Lieberman (Cfl) 48%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 47% Corker (R) 52%
PA-06 Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22 Klein (D) 49% Shaw (R) 51%
NM-01 Madrid (D) 48% Wilson (R) 51%
NH-02 Bass (R) 54% Hodes (D) 46%
ID-01 Grant (D) 47% Sali (R) 52%
MN-01 Walz (D) 46% Gil (R) 54%
OH-12 Tiberi (R) 55% Shamansky (D) 45%
CA-04 Doolittle (R) 54% Brown (D) 46%
NE-03 Smith (R) 56% Kleeb (D) 44%.

TX-Gov:Perry:36 Bell:26 Kinky:19 Strayhorn:21

Posted by: Wolverine at October 20, 2006 01:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% v. Burns (R) 46%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 45% v. Lieberman (CfL) 43%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% v. Corker (R) 48%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53% v. Gerlach (R) 46%
FL-22: Klein (D) 50% v. Shaw (R) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% v. Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 48% v. Bass (R) 51%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 46% v. Sali (R) 53%
MN-01: Walz (D) 51% v. Gutknecht (R) 48%
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 45% v. Tiberi (R) 54%
CA-04: Brown (D) 50% v. Doolittle (R) 48%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 44% v. Smith (R) 55%
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 38% v. Bell (D) 27% v. Kinky (I) 12% v. Strayhorn (I) 21% with the Libertarian getting 2%.

Posted by: KainIIIC at October 20, 2006 02:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's my take on these races:
MT-SEN: Tester 50%, Burns 49%. This has tightened in the past week (Rasmussen the only regular pollster on this race), and Montana is only one four states where Bush is at 50% or better. In the end, the decisive factor will be Burns' Abramoff ties.
CT-SEN: Lieberman 52%, Lamont 40%. Lamont is the weakest Democratic candidate in the top 15
Senate races. Nuff said.
TN-SEN: Corker 52%, Ford 48%--Just don't see
a Ford win, and Corker has retooled his campaign.
PA-06: Murphy 52%, Gerlach 47%
FL-22: Shaw 50%, Klein 49%--Shaw has served his district well and that is why he escapes narrowly.
NM-01: Madrid 53%, Wilson 47%--This was a tough nut to crack.
NH-02: Bass 53%, Hodes 46%--Dems should have targeted this one earlier.
ID-01: Sali 55%, Grant 44%--district is just too red
MN-01: Walz 50%, Gutknecht 49%--Upset special, as GOP having a bad year in Minnesota
OH-12: Tiberi 56%, Shamansky 44%
CA-04: Doolittle 54%, Brown 44%--This is one of California's most conservative districts.
NE-03: Smith 56%, Kleeb 43%

TX-GOV: Perry 40%, Bell 29%, Friedman 11%, Strayhorn 20%

Posted by: mikelow1885 at October 20, 2006 02:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey all,

While we don't have Governor's races, check out Predict06.com!

Soon we'll have pools where you can invite all of the people posting here to make their predictions about the upcoming races.

Posted by: Predict06 at October 20, 2006 04:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hello...

here are my predictions:

MT-SEN: Tester 56%, Burns 44%. Tester has outpreformed polls before and I think he will do it again.
CT-SEN: Lamont 45, Lieberman 42. I still think he can pull this out.
TN-SEN: Corker 51%, Ford 49%--Black candidates in the South tend to underpreform at the polls, plus a very defensive GOP play has been made to keep this one.
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53% v. Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22: Klein (D) 49% v. Shaw (R) 51%. I just dont trust Florida to deliver
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53% v. Wilson (R) 47%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 49% v. Bass (R) 51%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 48% v. Sali (R) 52%
*sigh* too bad. They've decided they are going to keep this one, too...
MN-01: Walz (D) 52% v. Gutknecht (R) 47%
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 48% v. Tiberi (R) 52%
CA-04: Brown (D) 47% v. Doolittle (R) 53%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 46% v. Smith (R) 54%
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 38% v. Bell (D) 27% v. Kinky (I) 14% v. Strayhorn (I) 17% with the Libertarian getting 2%.

email: jared86@gmail.com

Posted by: Jared86 at October 20, 2006 05:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ok here we go...

MT-Sen: Tester (D): 53%, Burns (R): 45%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D): 44%, Lieberman (CfL): 48%
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D): 50.2, Corker (R): 49.2%
PA-06: Murphy (D): 51.2%, Gerlach (R): 48.1%
FL-22: Klein (D): 49.72%, Shaw (R): 49.68%
NM-01: Madrid (D): 50.9% Wilson (R): 47.4%
NH-02: Hodes (D): 46%, Bass (R): 50%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D): 42%, Sali (R): 54%
MN-01: Walz (D): 49.99%, Gutknecht (R): 48.93%
OH-12: Shamansky (D): 46%, Tiberi (R): 51.5%
CA-04: Brown (D): 48%, Doolittle (R): 50%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D): 46%, Smith (R): 52%

TX-GOV: Perry 37%, Bell 17%, Friedman 15%, Strayhorn 29%

Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 20, 2006 10:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

oh and my email is jkfp2004@aol.com

Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 20, 2006 10:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D): 54% v. Burns (R): 46%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D): 42% v. Lieberman (CfL): 48%
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D): 51% v. Corker (R): 49%
PA-06: Murphy (D): 52% v. Gerlach (R): 48%
FL-22: Klein (D): 47 v. Shaw (R): 53%
NM-01: Madrid (D): 54% v. Wilson (R): 46%
NH-02: Hodes (D)46% v. Bass (R): 54%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D): 44% v. Sali (R): 56%
MN-01: Walz (D): 51% v. Gutknecht (R): 49%
OH-12: Shamansky (D): 45% v. Tiberi (R): 55%
CA-04: Brown (D): 48% v. Doolittle (R): 52%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D): 51% v. Smith (R): 49%

And the tiebreaker:
TX-Gov: Perry (R): 42 v. Bell (D): 33% v. Kinky (I): 11% v. Strayhorn (I): 14%

Posted by: bosdcla14 at October 20, 2006 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

jarnold1918@yahoo.com

Posted by: bosdcla14 at October 20, 2006 11:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 54% Burns (R) 46%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 42% Lieberman (Cfl) 47%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06 Murphy (D) 53% Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22 Klein (D) 49% Shaw (R) 51%
NM-01 Madrid (D) 55% Wilson (R) 45%
NH-02 Bass (R) 57% Hodes (D) 43%
ID-01 Grant (D) 44% Sali (R) 56%
MN-01 Walz (D) 52% Gil (R) 48%
OH-12 Tiberi (R) 55% Shamansky (D) 45%
CA-04 Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03 Smith (R) 57% Kleeb (D) 43%.

My email is ngrossman419@hotmail.com

Posted by: Captain Apathy at October 21, 2006 01:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% Burns (R) 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 43% Lieberman (Cfl) 50%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 48% Corker (R) 52%
PA-06 Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22 Klein (D) 50% Shaw (R) 50%
NM-01 Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02 Bass (R) 53% Hodes (D) 47%
ID-01 Grant (D) 46% Sali (R) 54%
MN-01 Walz (D) 51% Gil (R) 49%
OH-12 Tiberi (R) 51% Shamansky (D) 49%
CA-04 Doolittle (R) 49% Brown (D) 51%
NE-03 Smith (R) 58% Kleeb (D) 42%.

jeff@njdc.org

Posted by: Jeff Hauser at October 21, 2006 11:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here goes:
Tester 52-47
Lieberman 53-44
Ford 50.3-49.3
Murphy 52-48
Shaw 49.8-49.3
Madrid 51-48
Bass 53-46
Sali 51-47
Gutknecht 52-48
Tiberi 54-45
Brown 51-49
Smith 51-48

TIEBREAKER:
Perry 42, Bell 29, Friedman 15, Strayhorn 14

Posted by: Seth D at October 22, 2006 04:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And my email address is sethdmichaels@msn.com.

Posted by: Seth D at October 22, 2006 04:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh, and Jeff's tiebreaker:

TIEBREAKER:
Perry 45, Bell 31, Strayhorn 12, Friedman 12

jeff@njdc.org

Posted by: Jeff Hauser at October 22, 2006 04:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can I get a mulligan on NH-01? (just kidding)

New poll showing Hodes up 48-38.

Anyway, my email address is mlow001@socal.rr.com.

Posted by: mikelow1885 at October 22, 2006 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT Senate: Tester (D) 53% Burns (R) 47%
CT Senate: Lamont (D) 46% Lieberman (Cfl) 44%
TN Senate: Ford (D) 52% Corker (R) 48%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53% Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22: Klein (D) 51% Shaw (R) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 48%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 53% Bass (R) 47%
ID-01: Sali (R) 52% Grant (D) 48%
MN-01: Walz (D) 51% Gil (R) 49%
OH-12: Tiberi (R) 54% Shamansky (D) 46%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03: Smith (R) 54% Kleeb (D) 46%

TIE BREAKER:
Perry (R) 38% Bell (D) 27% Strayhorn (I) 22% Friedman (I) 13%

Email address is craigscheidler@yahoo.com

Posted by: Craig at October 22, 2006 10:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My predictions:

MT-Sen: Tester 56, Burns 44
CT-Sen: Lamont 48, Lieberman 42
TN-Sen: Corker 52, Ford 48
PA-06: Gerlach 51, Murphy 49
FL-22: Klein 53, Shaw 47
NM-01: Wilson 52, Madrid 48
NH-02: Bass 54, Hodes 46
ID-01: Sali 55, Grant 45
MN-01: Gutknecht 51, Walz 49
OH-02: Tiberi 57, Shamansky 43
CA-04: Doolittle 53, Brown 47
NE-03: Smith 61, Kleeb 39
TX-Gov: Perry 38, Bell 33, Strayhorn 19, Friedman 11

E-mail: nonpartisan@progressivehistorians.com

To clarify, I actually think we're going to take the House by a wide margin, I just don't think these are the seats that are going to do it. For example, I would wager anyone on this site $5 (but not really) that Trauner will blow Cubin away in WY-AL; I'm also big on the chances of people like Braley and Arcuri. Also, I was a big booster of Shamansky's chances against Tiberi's all the way back in May -- I'm just not seeing the anti-Tiberi sentiment building there like it is, for instance, against Pombo in CA-11.

Posted by: Nonpartisan at October 23, 2006 01:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here are mine. I added the margins after to save you the math :)

MT Senate: Tester (D) 55% Burns (R) 45% - D+10
CT Senate: Lieberman (I) 47 Lamont (D) 44% - CfL+3 (ugh)
TN Senate: Ford (D) 51%, Corker (R) 49% - D+2
PA-06: Murphy (D) 54%, Gerlach (R) 46% - D+8
FL-22: Shaw (R) 52%, Klein (D) 48% - R+4
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53%, Wilson (R) 47% - D+6
NH-02: Hodes (D) 51%, Bass (R) 49% - D+2
ID-01: Sali (R) 54%, Grant (D) 46% - R+8
MN-01: Walz (D) 51%, Gutknecht (R) 49% - D+2
OH-12: Tiberi (R) 54%, Shamansky (D) 46% - R+8
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53%, Brown (D) 47% - R+6
NE-03: Smith (R) 56%, Kleeb (D) 44% - R+12

TX Governor: Perry 36%, Bell 27%, Friedman 19%, Strayhorn 18%

Email: floy0036@umn.edu

I expect we'll gain 20-30 House seats and 5-7 Senate (Lieberman not factored in), but a lot of these races I consider longshots.

Posted by: bogun at October 23, 2006 03:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My guess is here:

MT-Sen: 52/47 Tester
CT-Sen: 44/42 Lieberman
TN-Sen: 51/48 Corker
PA-06: 53/47 Murphy
FL-22: 50/49 Klein
NM-01: 52/48 Madrid
NH-02: 55/43 Bass
ID-01: 53/44 Sali
MN-01: 54/46 Gutknecht
OH-12: 53/47 Tiberi
CA-04: 54/44 Doolittle
NE-03: 53/47 Smith

TX-Gov: 40/31/15/11 Perry/Bell/Friedman/Strayhorn

email: micha.1976@arcor.de

I think Dems win 25-35 seats in the House and 4-5 Senate seats, just not those you have selected (mostly)...

Posted by: micha1976 at October 23, 2006 03:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why aren't the Democrats pushing to put in play another Senate seat or two? Nevada, especially, with the latest poll showing a bump for Carter, and the Republican delegation in disarray. You know, instead of playing these arm chair games.

Step up.

Posted by: cargocult at October 23, 2006 07:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) v. Burns (R) -- 52/48
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) v. Lieberman (CfL) 38/52
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) v. Corker (R) 51/49
PA-06: Murphy (D) v. Gerlach (R) 50/49 (narrow win)
FL-22: Klein (D) v. Shaw (R) 51/49
NM-01: Madrid (D) v. Wilson (R) 49/51
NH-02: Hodes (D) v. Bass (R) 45/55
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) v. Sali (R) 46/54
MN-01: Walz (D) v. Gutknecht (R) 49/51
OH-12: Shamansky (D) v. Tiberi (R) 47/53
CA-04: Brown (D) v. Doolittle (R) 48/52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) v. Smith (R) 46/54

(You picked a lot of the ones leaning the wrong way)

And the tiebreaker:
TX-Gov: Perry (R) v. Bell (D) v. Kinky (I) v. Strayhorn (I) 42/28/11/19

David knows where to find me

Posted by: Adam B at October 23, 2006 09:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

1. MT-Sen: Tester 51 - Burns 48
2. CT-Sen: Lamont 42 - Lieberman 51
3. TN-Sen: Ford 50 - Corker 48
4. PA-06: Murphy 51 - Gerlach 47
5. FL-22: Klein 48 - Shaw 49
6. NM-01: Madrid 54 - Wilson 44
7. NH-02: Hodes 53 - Bass 47
8. ID-01: Grant 44 - Sali 52
9. MN-01: Walz 48 - Gutknecht 51
10. OH-12: Shamansky 47 - Tiberi 49
11. CA-04: Brown 45 - Doolittle 49
12. NE-03: Kleeb 41 - Smith 55
TIE. TX-Gov: Perry 31 v. Bell 21 v. Kinky 24 v. Strayhorn 22

Posted by: Terry at October 23, 2006 10:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And my email: terrymcmahon@gmail.com

Posted by: Terry at October 23, 2006 10:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: D+8
CT-Sen: Lieberman +9
TN-Sen: R+7
PA-06: D+6
FL-22: D+1
NM-01: D+8
NH-02: D+1
ID-01 R+8
MN-01: D+2
OH-12: R+5
CA-04: R+4
NE-03: R+10

TX-Gov:
Perry 42, Bell 30, Strayhorn 16, Friedman 12

Posted by: DCal at October 23, 2006 12:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, we've got a contest!!
My head is about to explode, with so many viable races this year. Although I usually wait until Election eve, here goes:

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% v. Burns (R) 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 43% v. Lieberman (CfL) 42% (there's no need to guess Schlesinger's percentage here, unless you think he's going to win this thing) No I don't.
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 51% v. Corker (R) 48%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 51% v. Gerlach (R) 49%
FL-22: Klein (D) 52% v. Shaw (R) 48%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53% v. Wilson (R) 47%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 50.5% v. Bass (R) 49.5%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 50% v. Sali (R) 48%
MN-01: Walz (D)49.5% v. Gutknecht (R)49.0%
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 58.5% v. Tiberi (R) 51.5%
CA-04: Brown (D) 50.0% v. Doolittle (R) 49.0%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 52% v. Smith (R) 48%

And the tiebreaker:
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 37% v. Bell (D) 24%v. Kinky (I) 18% v. Strayhorn (I) 18%

Posted by: Predictor at October 23, 2006 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hey Predictor:

"OH-12: Shamansky (D) 58.5% v. Tiberi (R) 51.5%"

That's an awful lot of votes!

Posted by: James L. at October 23, 2006 04:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Shoot, that is a typo, its 48.5%, LOL. Sorry!

Posted by: Predictor at October 23, 2006 04:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53% Burns 47% (R)
CT-Sen: Lieberman (CFL) 46% Lamont (D) 45%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06: Murphey (D) 53% Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22: Klein (D) 51% Shaw (R) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 51% Wilson (R) 49%
NH-02: Bass (R) 52% Hodes (D) 48%
ID-01: Sali (R) 51% Grant (D) 47%
MN-01: Gil (R) 52% Walz (D) 48%
OH-13: Tiberi (R) 52% Schmansky (D) 48%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 53% Brown (D) 47%
NE-03: Smith 52% (R) Kleeb (D) 48%
TX-Gov: Perry 40%, Bell 30%, Strayhorn 16%, Friedman 14%

Posted by: LP at October 23, 2006 07:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 52% v. Burns 48%
CT-Sen: Lieberman 52% Lamont 40%
TN-Sen Ford 50% v. Corker 50%
PA-06: Murphy 51% v. Gerlach 49%
FL-22: Klein 50% v. Shaw 50%
NM-01: Madrid 54% v. Wilson 46%
NH-02: Bass 54% Hodes 46%
ID-01 Grant 53% v. Sali 47%
MN-01: Walz 50% v. Gutknecht 50%
OH-12: Tiberi 55% Schmansky 45%
CA-04: Doolittle 54% Brown 46%
NE-03 Smith 55% Kleeb 45%

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry 37%, Bell 29%, Strayhorn 19% Kinky 15%

Posted by: Wayne in Missouri at October 23, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 55% Burns (R) 44%
CT-Sen: Lieberman (CFL) 46% Lamont (D) 40%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06: Murphey (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 48%
FL-22: Shaw (R) 51% Klein (D) 49%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 51% Wilson (R) 49%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 52% Bass (R) 48%
ID-01: Sali (R) 53% Grant (D) 46%
MN-01: Gil (R) 51% Walz (D) 48%
OH-13: Tiberi (R) 52% Schmansky (D) 48%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 55% Brown (D) 45%
NE-03: Smith 51% (R) Kleeb (D) 49%
TX-Gov: Perry 42%, Bell 28%, Strayhorn 12%, Friedman 18%

Posted by: Knoxdemjj at October 24, 2006 08:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D)53 v. Burns (R)46
CT-Sen: Lamont (D)41.5 v. Lieberman 42.5 (CfL)
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D)47 v. Corker 49(R)
PA-06: Murphy (D)55 v. Gerlach (R)44
FL-22: Klein (D)47 v. Shaw (R)53
NM-01: Madrid (D)52 v. Wilson (R)48
NH-02: Hodes (D)46 v. Bass (R)54
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D)42 v. Sali (R)55
MN-01: Walz (D)50.5 v. Gutknecht (R)48
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 41 v. Tiberi (R)56
CA-04: Brown (D)46 v. Doolittle (R)52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D)39 v. Smith (R)56

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R)46 v. Bell (D)38 v. Kinky (I)8 v. Strayhorn (I)6

cog_123@yahoo.com

Posted by: demokowski at October 24, 2006 02:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 53% v. Burns 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont 45% v. Lieberman 52%
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford 48% v. Corker 52%
PA-06: Murphy 54% v. Gerlach 46%
FL-22: Klein 48% v. Shaw 52%
NM-01: Madrid 52% v. Wilson 48%
NH-02: Hodes 46.5% v. Bass 53.5%
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant 45.5% v. Sali 54.5%
MN-01: Walz (D) 50.5% Gutknecht 49.5%
OH-12: Shamansky 45% v. Tiberi 55%
CA-04: Brown 44.5% v. Doolittle 55.5%
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb 44% v. Smith 56%

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 37% v. Bell (D) 25% v. Kinky (I) 17% v. Strayhorn (I) 21%

Posted by: keithbrekhus at October 24, 2006 03:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 51 v. Burns 48
CT-Sen: Lamont 41 v. Lieberman 45
TN-Sen: Ford 48 v. Corker 50
PA-06: Murphy 52 v. Gerlach 48
FL-22: Klein 52 v. Shaw 48
NM-01: Madrid 51 v. Wilson 47
NH-02: Hodes 48 v. Bass 52
ID-01: Grant 46 v. Sali 53
MN-01: Walz 50 v. Gutknecht 50
OH-12: Shamansky 46 v. Tiberi 53
CA-04: Brown 44 v. Doolittle 54
NE-03: Kleeb 41 v. Smith 58

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry 38 v. Bell 25 v. Kinky 16 v. Strayhorn 20

Posted by: hilltopper at October 24, 2006 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 52 v. Burns 47
CT-Sen: Lamont 42 v. Lieberman 46
TN-Sen: Ford 50 v. Corker 49
PA-06: Murphy 51 v. Gerlach 48
FL-22: Klein 49 v. Shaw 51
NM-01: Madrid 52 v. Wilson 48
NH-02: Hodes 47 v. Bass 53
ID-01: Grant 45 v. Sali 54
MN-01: Walz 51 v. Gutknecht 49
OH-12: Shamansky 46 v. Tiberi 53
CA-04: Brown 45 v. Doolittle 53
NE-03: Kleeb 44 v. Smith 55

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry 36 v. Bell 24 v. Kinky 11 v. Strayhorn 22

Posted by: ORpolitico at October 24, 2006 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 52 v. Burns 48
CT-Sen: Lamont 42 v. Lieberman 54
TN-Sen: Ford 48 v. Corker 52
PA-06: Murphy 52 v. Gerlach 48
FL-22: Klein 53 v. Shaw 47
NM-01: Madrid 51 v. Wilson 49
NH-02: Hodes 47 v. Bass 53
ID-01: Grant 48 v. Sali 52
MN-01: Walz 47 v. Gutknecht 53
OH-12: Shamansky 43 v. Tiberi 57
CA-04: Brown 45 v. Doolittle 55
NE-03: Kleeb 48 v. Smith 57

TX-Gov: Perry 41 v. Bell 29 v. Kinky 11 v. Strayhorn 19

Posted by: tyler at October 24, 2006 04:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 54% v. Burns (R) 45%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 40% v. Lieberman (CfL) 45%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 51% v. Corker (R) 47%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52% v. Gerlach (R) 46%
FL-22: Klein (D) 49% v. Shaw (R) 51%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53% v. Wilson (R) 46%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 51% v. Bass (R) 49%
ID-01: Grant (D) 49% v. Sali (R) 51%
MN-01: Walz (D) 50% v. Gutknecht (R)49%
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 47% v. Tiberi (R) 51%
CA-04: Brown (D) 49% v. Doolittle (R) 51%
NE-03: Kleeb (D) 46% v. Smith (R) 54%

TX-Gov: Perry 40 v. Bell 25 v. Kinky 18 v. Strayhorn 17

It's tough picking against the Ds. It's like picking your college to lose in the NCAA tourney pool: you know it's gonna happen, you know there's no way you can win if you don't pick them to lose, but man ... it still hurts.

Posted by: properottoman at October 24, 2006 06:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 53% v. Burns 47%
CT-Sen: Lamont 42 v. Lieberman 50%
TN-Sen: Ford 51% v. Corker 49%
PA-06: Murphy 52% v. Gerlach 48%
FL-22: Klein 45% v. Shaw 55%
NM-01: Madrid 51% v. Wilson 48%
NH-02: Hodes 48% v. Bass 52%
ID-01: Grant 46% v. Sali 54%
MN-01: Walz 47% v. Gutknecht 53%
OH-12: Shamansky 42% v. Tiberi 57%
CA-04: Brown 50% v. Doolittle 49%
NE-03: Kleeb 46% v. Smith 54%

TX-Gov: Perry 36 v. Bell 30 v. Kinky 20 v. Strayhorn 14

Posted by: NYPopulist at October 24, 2006 07:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester 51%(D) v. Burns 49%(R)
CT-Sen: Lamont 40% (D) v. Lieberman 52%(CfL)
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford 48%(D) v. Corker 52%(R)
PA-06: Murphy 49%(D) v. Gerlach 51%(R)
FL-22: Klein 47%(D) v. Shaw 53%(R)
NM-01: Madrid 52%(D) v. Wilson 48%(R)
NH-02: Hodes 44%(D) v. Bass 56%(R)
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant 45%(D) v. Sali 55%(R)
MN-01: Walz 49%(D) v. Gutknecht 51%(R)
OH-12: Shamansky 46%(D) v. Tiberi 54%(R)
CA-04: Brown 48%(D) v. Doolittle 52%(R)
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb 48%(D) v. Smith 52%(R)

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry 40%(R) v. Bell 22%(D) v. Kinky 16%(I) v. Strayhorn 22%(I)

Given these races...I hope I don't win !!!

Posted by: jmf59 at October 24, 2006 07:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 55v. Burns (R) 45
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 41v. Lieberman (CfL) 48
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 50 v. Corker (R) 49
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52 v. Gerlach (R) 48
FL-22: Klein (D) 51 v. Shaw (R) 49
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53 v. Wilson (R) 47
NH-02: Hodes (D) 53 v. Bass (R) 47
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 52 v. Sali (R) 48
MN-01: Walz (D) 51 v. Gutknecht (R) 49
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 57 v. Tiberi (R) 43
CA-04: Brown (D) 48 v. Doolittle (R) 52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 46 v. Smith (R) 54
And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 38 v. Bell (D) 18 v. Kinky (I) 28 v. Strayhorn (I) 23

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 24, 2006 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 54 v. Burns (R) 46
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 43 v. Lieberman (CfL) 47
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 49 (Wins, though, if that counts) v. Corker (R) 49
PA-06: Murphy (D) 54 v. Gerlach (R) 46
FL-22: Klein (D) 48 v. Shaw (R) 52
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53 v. Wilson (R) 47
NH-02: Hodes (D) 51 v. Bass (R) 49
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 47 v. Sali (R) 53
MN-01: Walz (D) 47 v. Gutknecht (R) 53
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 46 v. Tiberi (R) 54
CA-04: Brown (D) 45 v. Doolittle (R) 55
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 50 v. Smith (R) 49

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 39 v. Bell (D) 28 v. Kinky (I) 13 v. Strayhorn (I) 16

Posted by: dbeard at October 24, 2006 08:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I forgot to put my email in the immediate previous post. Don't want to miss out on the prize.

d w b 1 1 5 @ y a h o o.com

Posted by: dbeard at October 24, 2006 08:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 52% Burns (R) 46%
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 41% Lieberman (I) 40%
TN-Sen: Ford (D) 49.5% Corker (R) 49%
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52% Gerlach (R) 47%
FL-22: Klein (D) 50% Shaw (R) 48%
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52% Wilson (R) 47%
NH-02: Hodes (D) 53% Bass (R) 47%
ID-01: Sali (R) 53% Grant (D) 46%
MN-01: Walz (D) 51% Gil (R) 48%
OH-12: Tiberi (R) 52% Shamansky (D) 47%
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 56% Brown (D) 42%
NE-03: Kleeb (D) 50% Smith (R) 49.5%

TX-Gov: Perry 34%, Bell 28%, Strayhorn 18%, Friedman 18%

Posted by: NMDem at October 24, 2006 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tester 51, Burns 47
Lieberman 50 Lamont 42
TN SN Corker 52 Ford 48
PA 6 Murphy 53 Gerlach 47
FL 22 Klein 51 Shaw 49
NM 1 Madrdid 51 Wilson 49
NH 2 Hodes 51 Bass 49
ID 1 Salli 51 Grant 49
MN 6 Walz 51 Gil 49
OH 12 Tiberi 53 Shamansky 47
CA 4 Doolittle 54 Brown 46
NE 3 Smith 57 Kleeb 43
TX GOV Perry 30 Bell 29 Strayhorn 21 Kinky 20

Posted by: Democraticavenger at October 24, 2006 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tester 53, Burns 46
Lieberman 46 Lamont 42
TN SN Ford 52 Corker 48
PA 6 Murphy 55 Gerlach 45
FL 22 Klein 51 Shaw 49
NM 1 Madrdid 54 Wilson 46
NH 2 Hodes 53 Bass 47
ID 1 Grant 51 Sali 49
MN 6 Walz 49 Gil 51
OH 12 Tiberi 49.9 Shamansky 50.1
CA 4 Doolittle 52 Brown 48
NE 3 Smith 47 Kleeb 53
TX GOV Perry 33 Bell 29 Strayhorn 22 Kinky 16

Posted by: fenwaysteve at October 25, 2006 12:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 56, Burns (R) 44
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 45, Lieberman (CfL) 44
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 51, Corker (R) 49
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53, Gerlach (R) 47
FL-22: Klein (D) 52, Shaw (R) 48
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52, Wilson (R) 48
NH-02: Hodes (D) 49, Bass (R) 51
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 51, Sali (R) 49
MN-01: Walz (D) 51, Gutknecht (R) 49
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 45, Tiberi (R) 55
CA-04: Brown (D) 48, Doolittle (R) 52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 49, Smith (R) 51

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 36, Bell (D) 37, Kinky (I) 9, Strayhorn (I) 18

Posted by: RBH at October 25, 2006 01:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh yeah. My e-mail is rbh@swingstateproject.com

And now that I think about it. I may not be eligible to win anything. But, I could be pretty close to being accurate.

Posted by: RBH at October 25, 2006 01:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

so i'm a couple minutes late, but here goes nothing:

tester 53, burns 47
lieberman 52, lamont 40
corker 52, ford 48
murphy 54, gerlach 46
klein 52, shaw 48
madrid 55, wilson 45
bass 51, hodes 48
grant 52, sali 48
walz 55, gutknecht 45
shamansky 52, tiberi 48
doolittle 55, brown 45
kleed 52, smith 48

perry 36, bell 30, strayhorn 20, kinky 14

dsrosen@uh.edu

Posted by: davidrosen at October 25, 2006 03:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

john (at) nebraskayoungdemocrats (dot) org
-----

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 52, Burns (R) 48
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 46, Lieberman (CfL) 48
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 47, Corker (R) 53
PA-06: Murphy (D) 51, Gerlach (R) 49
FL-22: Klein (D) 50, Shaw (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52, Wilson (R) 48
NH-02: Hodes (D) 49, Bass (R) 51
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 51, Sali (R) 49
MN-01: Walz (D) 52, Gutknecht (R) 48
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 46, Tiberi (R) 54
CA-04: Brown (D) 48, Doolittle (R) 52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 44, Smith (R) 56

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 34, Bell (D) 35, Kinky (I) 12, Strayhorn (I) 19

---I sure hope I'm wrong and Dems have a bigger wave than I'm predicting. And I even more than any of them want Kleeb to win... I'm actually going out and putting in 8 hours volunteering this saturday and sunday in the 3rd (I live in Omaha). ---

-JOR

Posted by: JOR at October 25, 2006 04:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53 v. Burns (R) 47
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 40 v. Lieberman (CfL) 45
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 48 v. Corker (R) 52
PA-06: Murphy (D) 53 v. Gerlach (R) 47
FL-22: Klein (D) 43 v. Shaw (R) 55
NM-01: Madrid (D) 52 v. Wilson (R) 48
NH-02: Hodes (D) 48v. Bass (R) 52
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 44 v. Sali (R) 54
MN-01: Walz (D) 52 v. Gutknecht (R) 48
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 52 v. Tiberi (R) 48
CA-04: Brown (D) 47 v. Doolittle (R) 52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 42 v. Smith (R) 58

Posted by: zimmy at October 25, 2006 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 54 v. Burns (R) 46
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 40 v. Lieberman (CfL) 50
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 48 v. Corker (R) 52
PA-06: Murphy (D) 50 v. Gerlach (R) 49
FL-22: Klein (D) 46 v. Shaw (R) 54
NM-01: Madrid (D) 51 v. Wilson (R) 49
NH-02: Hodes (D) 46 v. Bass (R) 54
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 46 v. Sali (R) 54
MN-01: Walz (D) 52 v. Gutknecht (R) 48
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 45 v. Tiberi (R) 55
CA-04: Brown (D) 44 v. Doolittle (R) 55
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 47 v. Smith (R) 52

And the tiebreaker:

TX-Gov: Perry (R) 40 v. Bell (D) 31 v. Kinky (I) 9 v. Strayhorn (I) 15

Posted by: Hiram at October 25, 2006 09:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

MT-Sen: Tester (D) 53 v. Burns (R) 46
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) 40 v. Lieberman (CfL) 44
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) 51 v. Corker (R) 49
PA-06: Murphy (D) 52 v. Gerlach (R) 47
FL-22: Klein (D) 51 v. Shaw (R) 49
NM-01: Madrid (D) 51 v. Wilson (R) 48
NH-02: Hodes (D) 46 v. Bass (R) 54
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) 49 v. Sali (R) 48
MN-01: Walz (D) 47 v. Gutknecht (R) 53
OH-12: Shamansky (D) 45 v. Tiberi (R) 55
CA-04: Brown (D) 47v. Doolittle (R) 52
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) 51 v. Smith (R) 49
TX-Gov: Perry (R) 42 v. Bell (D) 36 v. Kinky (I) 8 v. Strayhorn (I) 14

Posted by: bawbie at October 25, 2006 12:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

These are the averages of all the predictions:

MT Senate: Tester(D) 53% v. Conrad Burns(R) 47%
CT Senate: Lieberman(Cfl) 47% v. Ned Lamont(D) 43%
TN Senate: Corker(R) 54% v. Ford(D) 46%
PA-06: Murphy(D) 52% v. Gerlach(R) 48%
FL-22: Shaw(R) 51% v. Klein(D) 49%

I'll average the rest later on...

Posted by: Craig at October 25, 2006 04:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's very cool of you to do, Craig, but I suspect that your Corker numbers are a bit off--I can't see his average in this thread being 54%. That seems a little high given that most people seem to have him in the 48-53 range in this thread.

Posted by: James L. at October 25, 2006 04:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry his average is 52%. Typo on my part.

Posted by: Craig at October 25, 2006 06:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ford's average should be 48%.

Here are a few more averages

NM-01: Madrid(D) 52% v. Wilson(R) 48%
NH-02: Bass(R) 53% v. Bass(D) 47% (The predictions at the beginning of the contest for this race are a lot more pessimistic then the ones near the end, due to the poll released late in the contest showing Hodes ahead).
ID-01(OPEN): Sali(R) 55% v. Grant(D) 45%

Posted by: Craig at October 25, 2006 07:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Above I put Bass twice, sorry it should be Hodes with the 47%

Posted by: Craig at October 26, 2006 02:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment