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Monday, October 23, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCTwo weeks. Can you believe it? After all this waiting - just two more weeks.
Be sure to post your guesses in The Great Swing State Project Prediction Contest!
UPDATE: Mike Callaghan (WV-02), a candidate I've long had my eye on, has been added to the DCCC's emerging races list. Hopefully there's still enough time for this to make a difference. With a big enough wave, who knows? Maybe even Shelly Capito might get washed out.
Posted at 10:00 PM in Open Threads | Technorati
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Comments
I'm looking forward to seeing a new poll on the Nevada Goevernor's race because the Republican frontrunner was accused of assulting a woman before last week's debate.
Posted by: mbcarl ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at October 21, 2006 03:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NY-13! No longer a sleepy race, though the lack of public polling makes it difficult to judge the status. People had to infer that it wasn't competitive before because of Fossella's past victories and the money advantage, and have to infer that it is now due to his funding an internal poll and not releasing it, agreeing to five in person debates immediately afterwards when last cycle he only had one and sent his campaign manager instead of appearing himself, running from the Republican label ("An Independent Fighter for Us", never saying "Republican" on the site) and just generally charging hard at Stephen Harrison who on paper shouldn't be a threat.
Lots of information to be had by following the NY-13 tag at Daily Kos, Retaking NY-13, and Blue Spot. Recent news includes a dust up over Fossella's mailer that put Harrison and Bin Laden photos on the same page (made the NY Times) CQ Politics upgrading it from Safe Republican to Republican Favored (also made the NY Times) and Harrison's good debate performances in general, which you can watch online.
I would kill for polling of this race. The lack of it means the CW of Vito's safety still dominates, but there's plenty of evidence that he's not. How close Harrison is is impossible to tell, but Vito's sweating this one at least.
Harrison's web site (Donate, Volunteer)
Posted by: NYGreg at October 21, 2006 05:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oops, that would be the NY-13 tag at Daily Kos. Didn't check my links properly.
Posted by: NYGreg at October 21, 2006 05:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
HOLY CRAP just when you think he couldn't sink any lower (ethically), Ken Blackwell (Ohio SOS and GOP Gov nominee) exudes the ultimate slime!
Blackwell's not just challenging Strickland's right to vote - apparently you can't even hold elected office in Ohio if you can't vote! That's right, Blackwell's trying to win this race by default, by disqualifying his opponent's candidacy.
If Blackwell wins in this fashion, it's time to break out the pitchforks.
Posted by: X Stryker at October 21, 2006 09:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
KY-3. John Yarmuth, the Democratic challenger against 5-term incumbent Anne Northup has recently moved into the lead, although statistically still tied 48-47. This district carried for Clinton twice, Gore in 2000, and Kerry in 2004, but has held onto Northup. None of her opponents have ever led a poll this close to the campaign. Yarmuth is a journalist in Louisville, like his opponent a multi-millionaire, and a avowed liberal. If there was ever an opportunity to go from true Red to true Blue, KY-3 is it. If you haven't heard of this race, blame the DCCC. Ramh Emanuel is being a hardhead at his own peril. Yarmuth appears headed for a win. Here is his website address: www.yarmuthforcongress.com.
The Whippoorwill Poet, Louisville, KY
Posted by: The Whippoorwill Poet at October 21, 2006 11:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Today's Blue America guest at FireDogLake is Kirsten Gillibrand. She'll be live blogging at 2 PM (est) about her race in NY-20 against right wing imbecile John Sweeney. Preview up now at Down With Tyranny
Posted by: DownWithTyranny at October 21, 2006 01:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Also, Early Voting started today in Nevada!
Posted by: mbcarl at October 21, 2006 07:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If I could wave a wand and get my fairy godmother to publish an honest poll from any Congressional race,
the district I'd ask for is the imponderable open seat in TN-09,
where departing would-be Senator Harold Ford Jr refuses
to endorse the Democratic candidate, Steve Cohen, and Ford's brother Jake
is running as an independent to try to keep the seat in the family, instead of in the party.
While we wait for one, please support the progressive candidate, the real Democrat,
Steve Cohen, who will be a much better Congressman than Harold Ford ever was.
Cohen is on the ActBlue roster below:
http://www.actblue.com/page/2006fund?refcode=sspcohen
Posted by: Christopher Walker at October 22, 2006 08:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Early voting has begun in North Carolina. Go get'm Kissel & Schuler.
Posted by: cltpie28 at October 22, 2006 09:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MN-Gov. It's a local race, so I'm biased to follow it already. But beyond that, it's an extremely close race that looks to be a tie. The Minneapolis Star Tribune released a poll with Hatch 46 - Pawlenty 37, but I'm not trusting it yet because so far it's an outlier, and a wide outlier at that.
I am worried that Independent Party candidate Peter Hutchinson will throw the race for Pawlenty. Hutchinson is relatively liberal, falling closer to Hatch on most issues. If Hutchinson gets enough votes, Pawlenty could win on a plurality, just like he did in the three-way race in 2002, when a former moderate Democratic Congressman Tim Penny ran as an Independent. If Pawlenty wins because of third parties again, I'll scream...
Posted by: bogun at October 23, 2006 03:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WI-8
As stated earlier, KAGEN is not going to be pushed around when it somes to spending by John GARD. Though KAGEN's recent Pinochicco (sp?) ad was extremely lame and money poorly spent. Hope he goes back to issues rather than wallowing in the mud with GARD.
Reported in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel 20 October 2006
[Dr. Steve] "...Kagen(D) has added $720,000 of his own money to his campaign, bringing the total he's provided to more than $2.4 million. The extra cash lent to his campaign triggers the federal campaign law's "millionaire's amendment," meaning donation limits that ordinarily would apply to donors to Gard will likely be raised by the Federal Election Commission.
The aim of the provision, included in the 2002 McCain-Feingold law, was to level the field so that opponents of wealthy candidates aren't put at a financial disadvantage."
If interested in the entire article this link hopefully will work.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=521453
you can paste it into your browser if interested.
Posted by: walja at October 23, 2006 05:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Things are looking better and better here in Indiana. It took me longer than most, but I'm finally sold on Joe Donnelly having a great shot at beating Chris Chocola in the South Bend-based IN-2. In a suprise to me, the typically conservative Indianapolis Star endorsed him yesterday. Although I'm highly skeptical of the impact newspaper endorsements have anymore, I think this one carries a bit of weight. The Star also endorsed Brad Ellsworth's challenge to John Hostettler in IN-8 -- even most Republicans here concede that Hostettler is all but toast (although I'm not counting anything as a done deal until two weeks from tomorrow!).
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at October 23, 2006 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey IndianaProgressive - thanks for the update! I had heard about the endorsement of Ellsworth, but not about the one in IN-02. Terrific!
By the way, there's a fund drive on at Daily Kos for our guy in IN-06, Barry Welsh. Check it out at:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/23/83238/136
Posted by: Christopher Walker at October 23, 2006 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Christopher -- The Star made all of their congressional endorsements Sunday (check out the head opinion page at indystar.com for a complete list). They did endorse Sodrel over Hill (disappointing but not at all suprising), and offered a very tepid endorsement of Julia Carson -- but in general were very fair this election, given the ideological leanings of the paper. Particularly effective was their glowing endorsement of Democrat Frank Anderson for a second term as Marion County Sheriff.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at October 23, 2006 11:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Early voting has begun in Florida too and I'm keeping a close eye on the governor's race. A new quinnipiac(sp?) poll out today shows a statistical dead heat with Crist at 46 and Davis at 44. This one may not be too far beyond reach.
Posted by: beeswax49 at October 23, 2006 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just moved from the IL-19. Was planning to volunteer for Stover but a heart bypass got in the way. Anyway, with Shimkus on the Page Board, I'm curious if Stover has a chance. If you look at the map of IL-19, anyone can tell that it has been gerrymandered. By a Dem legislature but it has gone Repub since it was created as a result of the 2000 census.
Posted by: Chief at October 23, 2006 12:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Woah where did all these comments come from?
lol.
It looks like your coverage on SSP has brought me mostly up to speed on the NY-19 race with the times and the Time-Hearld endorsements.
I caught the Colbert Report with John Hall being interviewed -- it was hilarious.
-- MrMacMan
Posted by: MrMacMan at October 23, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Harry Mitchell! AZ-05! Barak is here today for two rallies. WE could definitely take this one. And any movement in this state is in the right direction for Jim Pederson. The senate seat is within reach.
Posted by: jerzay at October 23, 2006 02:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Jim Webb is in a dead heat for George Allen's Senate seat in Virginia. I believe this is the most important race in the country and a unique opportunity to win a once secure Republican seat. Give Jim Webb the chance to send George Allen to K Street forever. webbforsenate.com.
Posted by: Nick Stump at October 23, 2006 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
what is Marion County, who did they endorse for Governor in 2004, and why would they enodrse Julia Carson if they're conservative. Bapti-Zatus-sum. Bapti-zatus-sum, BAPTI-ZATUS-SUM. That's what's kind of day it's been.
Anyway, I think Hatcvh is going to pull it off by pulling in extroardinary margins in the northern part of the state. MN-08, and MN-07. Judy Feder should help him win, or come clsoe to winning Jim Ramstad's evenly divided suburban district, which is a small consolation to the suburban landslide that Pawlenty's going to recieve, as well as his strong showing in MN-01.
Posted by: ArkDem at October 23, 2006 06:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm, of course, interested in the NM-01 race between Heather Wilson (R) and Patricia Madrid (D). With the latest Albuquerque Journal poll putting Madrid ahead by three, that means every independent poll in the past three weeks has put Madrid ahead.
And the Albuquerque Journal poll tends to be very accurate.
Posted by: LP at October 23, 2006 07:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Tennessee senate race. It could be a good predictor of whether a black candidate can win in conservative rural areas in 2008.
Posted by: jkfp2004 at October 23, 2006 07:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ArkDem: Marion County is the city of Indianapolis and its inner suburbs. The Star (the main paper of Indianapolis, but widely read statewide) endorsed Mitch Daniels for Governor in 2004, and has endorsed the GOP Presidential candidate since, well, probably forever. The ONLY reason they endorsed Julia Carson this year is because the guy she's running against is a complete joke (including being caught in a bald-faced lie to their editorial board about a domestic violence incident several years back). They literally called her the "less bad" of two bad choices. The paper isn't as rabidly conservative and Republican as it used to be (for decades, it was owned by Dan Quayle's family), but that still is their dominant ideology.
Posted by: IndianaProgressive at October 23, 2006 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ArkDem, what does Judy Feder have to do with Minnesota?
Posted by: KCinDC at October 23, 2006 11:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Stephen Harrison, NY-13. Ok not your typical underdog candidate, but good nonetheless. A race that people thought would never evolve, has been upgraded by CQPolitics this week, and now Steve will be on MSNBC tomorrow. Steve also has the last of his 5 debates he forced Fossella to agree to, tomorrow night. Lots of stuff adding up here.
http://ny13.blogspot.com/2006/10/harrison-on-msnbc-tuesday.html
Posted by: jonahinnyc at October 24, 2006 12:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
OH-1 OH-2 KY-4
Interesting observation. These three Congressional districts all are dominated by the Cincinnati media market. Both Kentucky and Ohio have Republican Governors convicted of criminal behavior while in office. Ads from these three races essentially overlap the same media market. Target ads in any of the three races and be heard in all three districts.
The airwaves are filled with corruption charges from both sides of the Ohio River at the state level. Corruption is heard more in Cincinnati than anywhere else in Ohio. As a result, a metropolitian area that leans red is turning purple, at least in 2006.
The affected would be Ken LUCAS over Geoff DAVIS KY-4, Ohio-1 John CRANLEY over Steve CHABOT and Ohio-2 Victoria WULSIN over Mean Jean SCHMIDT. Sure enough all three GOP incumbents are in trouble. Corruption is the Republican achillies heel in 2006 in Ohio. Even in the redder parts of the state.
Posted by: walja at October 24, 2006 09:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment