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Friday, July 30, 2004

Updated Swing State Map Available

Posted by DavidNYC

As promised, I updated the swing state map to show North Carolina as a battleground state. Yes, it violates my strict ��10% methodology a little bit, but I'm satisfied with Chris's research that shows that the VP selection can materially affect a state's vote. Also, NC was actually the second-least red of all the states outside the ��10% group (Georgia was the first state over that barrier). So it's not a huge stretch. (I also cleaned up the map to show all of Maine as a swing state, even if it is strongly leaning toward Kerry.) A color-blind reader suggest I use patterns rather than colors - I'll try to create a second, more color-blind friendly map if I get the chance.

Also, related to my question immediately below, Zogby already has a new national poll out, showing Kerry/Edwards ahead 48-43. Zogby's last pre-convention poll had Kerry ahead 48-46, so all this poll shows (so far) is that 3% moved from Bush into the undecided group. (I don't usually, if ever, mention national polls here, but it might be a few days before we see post-convention state polls.)

And lastly, speaking of maps, a number of people have recommended the LA Times' electoral vote tracker map. It's pretty & user-friendly, and it even plays a little song (is that supposed to be "Stars & Stripes Forever?") when one candidate reaches 270 EVs.

2004 Swing States

Posted at 12:14 AM in General, Maine, North Carolina, Site News | Technorati


As a Tar Heel I sure hope you're right about North Carolina being a swing state. Few people here would put serious money down on North Carolina being a blue state in November. Part of the problem is that John Edwards has never been that popular in our state. About half the electorate feels that Edwards used North Carolina from the very beginning as a stepping stone to get where he is today. These opinions of Edwards are not new, and have been voiced for several years now. That said, should Kerry win North Carolina in November, Kerry will win the election in a landslide.

Posted by: Pepe at July 30, 2004 08:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I have to agree with a lot of what Pepe said, but I am not quite as pessimistic about our changes in NC. There are a lot of people upset in the state. Even the people I talk to in Charlotte are at least willing to look at the other party. Charlotte has been hurt the least of any region and is one of the most conservative areas of the state. It says a lot that people here are looking at us (even if it is with a great deal of suspicion).

Kerry has got some major problems to overcome if he's to pull NC to the Blue. He needs to articulate a plan for Iraq and be very specific about these ideas. I think taking a page out of Perot's book would do well. I'm speaking about the overly detailed presentations and the not the ideas. That's why Perot did so well. He saw an electorate with anger at problem and said in no uncertain terms, I have plan and this is how we get it done. Let's face it, it worked. Kerry also has to explain the $87 Billion vote in no uncertain terms. If the reason was he knew the vote would pass and wanted to make a point, it needs to be stated that way. I think NC will respond to that. If he can clear these two things up, NC will be VERY VERY competitive. I hope it will turn over, but even if it doesn't Bush will have a few more gray hairs waiting for the NC results.


Posted by: Jason at July 30, 2004 09:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The song on the L.A. Time Electoral Vote Calculator is "Hail To The Chief". It's an intriguing site but many of their state polls are way out of date. Whoever at the paper is in charge of updating the site are doing a poor job.

Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 30, 2004 10:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NC's most conservative area is western NC, and Bush is strong up here.

Posted by: Steve at July 30, 2004 10:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, North Carolina's most conservative and most dominant area is Charlotte, which is our largest city. There are also a lot of Republicans in Raleigh/Cary, which is our second largest urban area. Bush remains very strong in these areas. While Western North Carolina is also very Republican, it doesn't have a large population to exert a lot of influence like Charlotte or North Raleigh.

If Edwards were more popular in North Carolina, I have no doubt his being on the ticket would be enough to secure the state for him. However, as I posted previously, he has never been as popular in his own state as he is outside of it. People perhaps view Edwards in a similar way that our neighbors in Tennessee viewed Gore four years ago. They just don't view him as having their state at heart.

I live in Chapel Hill, the most liberal part of North Carolina, and one of the most liberal pockets you will find anywhere in the nation. While we will vote overwhelming for Kerry-Edwards here in Chapel Hill, most of us here will be quite surprised if our state is in the blue column in November.

Posted by: Pepe at July 30, 2004 11:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pepe, I think the polling at least somewhat contradicts you. Consistently, far more people in NC have said that Edwards' presence on the ticket makes them more likely to vote Dem than people who say it makes them less likely.

Furthermore, the most recent poll, done by R2K, shows that Edwards' popularity in NC has been steadily increasing since he ended his presidential bid. In January, his fave-unfave stod at 51-40. By early July, he was up to 56-38, a material improvement. I'm willing to bet his next set of numbers will be better still.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 30, 2004 12:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, I hope you're right, but I'm only reporting what many Democrats here in the Democratic heart of North Carolina fear in their hearts. Yes, having Edwards on the ticket makes Kerry more--not less--attractive to Tar Heels. Certainly, Edwards will give Kerry a better bounce in my state than any other selection he could have made. However, I doubt that it will be enough, in the end.

Again, the reason is because enough people in this state feel that Edwards never had North Carolina's interests at heart when he ran for the senate--rather, he had much larger, national aspirations. His addition to the ticket will make it more interesting, though I would not be counting on Edwards to carry this state in November. I just don't see North Carolina being a swing state �� la Ohio, Missouri or Florida, where the election may be in doubt until the wee hours of the morning. You can't imagine how much I hope I am proved wrong, as I would like nothing more than to see my beloved North Carolina in the blue column!

Posted by: Pepe at July 30, 2004 12:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've posted a new survey of Electoral College tracking/projection/prediction sites here.

Kerry still leads. Of 24 sites surveyed, 16 show him winning, another 5 as ahead. Only 2 show Bush as winning, and one other shows him ahead.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 1, 2004 03:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment