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« General Election Cattle Call, July 29 | Main | Updated Swing State Map Available »

Thursday, July 29, 2004

Historical Convention Bounces

Posted by DavidNYC

The New York Times has a helpful graphic today showing convention bounces for all presidential candidates going back to 1964. Every single person but one saw a bounce - even Bob Dole did. (The lone exception was George McGovern in 1972, when an ugly rift opened up within the Democratic Party at the convention.) So the question isn't whether Kerry will see a bounce - the question is how big a bounce Kerry will see. Post your predictions in the comments below.

convention_bounces

P.S. I really liked Kerry's speech tonight. I thought he delivered it very well & had a lot of good lines. I was moved.

Posted at 10:58 PM in General | Technorati

Comments

The "where's the remote" instinct kicked in about 2 minutes in. It took a while for the speech to get moving...

As an independent undecided voter, I predict a 2-3% bounce for Kerry. I'm still undecided.

Posted by: Tucker at July 29, 2004 11:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

By the way, I'm convinced that the undecideds will continue to make up 5-10% of the electorate right up to November. But as you capably pointed out HERE, most of the undecideds will probably break toward Kerry.

Posted by: Tucker at July 29, 2004 11:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I expect the bounce will be just 2 or 3 percent as well...there just isn't a pool of undecideds to support much more than that.

Posted by: Nim at July 29, 2004 11:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think he will get a 4% boost. I am from Missouri and active in the st louis area for Kerry. Kerry has pulled into a slim lead here and this speech should play well with outstate. Our governors race in 2000 was won by 20,000 approximately and in 2002 our Senate race went the other way by 20,000. I thought this state was a loser going in but with the momentum now shifting and with us all now praying we are on Gods side we should drive this thing to a win.

Posted by: kyle hunter at July 29, 2004 11:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment