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Sunday, October 19, 2003

Methodology & List of Swing States

Posted by DavidNYC

This site is devoted to analyzing the battleground states which will ultimately decide the 2004 US Presidential election.

Methodology: Any state where the margin between (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanan) was ±10% in 2000 is considered a swing state for the purposes of this project.

The one exception is North Carolina, which has moved into the swing state category by virute of John Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket. Historically, the home state of a party's vice-presidential candidate is one of the few (if only) factors that can materially affect the vote in that state.

List (with margin in parentheses):

Arizona (-4.12%)
Arkansas (-4.79%)
Colorado (-3.71%)
Florida (1.33%)

Iowa (2.11%)
Louisiana (-7.32%)
Maine, 2nd CD (5.74%)
Michigan (7.08%)
Minnesota (6.70%)

Missouri (-2.13%)
Nevada (-1.86%)

New Mexico (3.38%)
New Hampshire (2.17%)
North Carolina (-13.13%)
Ohio (-1.58%)

Oregon (5.02%)
Pennsylvania (5.94%)

Tennessee (-3.12%)
Virginia (-6.06%)

Washington (9.43%)
West Virginia (-5.17%)
Wisconsin (3.40%)

Posted at 10:50 PM in Site News | Technorati