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Friday, July 09, 2004

Ohio, Pennsylvania Polls

Posted by Chris Bowers

You down with OPP? Yeah, you know Rasmussen. June 1-30, 500 LV statewide. MoE 5 (May 16-June 15 results in parenthesis)

Bush 46 (46)
Kerry 42 (43)

Kerry 48 (47)
Bush 43 (45)

According to these polls, both states are nearly identical to 2000. So far in this election, the polling from Pennsylvania has looked good, and the numbers from Ohio have been all over the map. If Kerry can win Ohio, the election will be his.

Posted at 04:33 PM in General | Technorati


Looks like Kerry will probably win PA and FL. OH might wind up going for Bush, because there are way too many die-hard Republicans in that state. Clinton won Ohio because of Perot. But, it won't matter, Kerry doesn't need OH to win. PA and FL along with the Gore states will put him over the top.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 9, 2004 04:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And don't forget: Someone finally polled New Mexico. With it's 5 electoral votes and the fact that President Gore carried it by only 464 votes makes this small state crucial. The Poll: Kerry 49-Bush 42.

Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 9, 2004 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Poll: Kerry 49-Bush 42

That was a 3-way with Nader (who got 3). Head-to-head, it was K51-B43 (moe4).

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 10, 2004 12:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry will win the election. The key states are Florida and Pennsylvania, and Kerry will carry them both. Pennsylvania is turning into a poor state with a bad economy and Florida will go stronger for Kerry with Edwards on the ticket. Michigan will probably also go for Kerry.

Posted by: The Cowboy at July 10, 2004 12:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Michigan will probably also go for Kerry.

I don't think there's any "probably" about it. Here's a month or so of polls there:

- SurveyUSA 6/2 K47-B43 moe4.2
- Zogby 6/6 K49.1-B45.1-N1.1 moe2.6 (K+2.6in)
- EpicMRA 6/4 K47-B45 or K45-B43-N3 moe4
- PubOpStrat(GOP) 6/8 K47-B43 moe4
- Zogby 6/21 K46.1-B46.8-N2.3 moe3.2 (B+0.7in)
- FoxNews 6/23 K44-B43 or K40-B42-N5 moe3
- SUSA 6/30 K51-B41 moe4.1
- DetroitNews 6/30 K43-B44-N5 moe5
- ARG 7/8 K50-B43-N2 or K51-B43 moe4
- EpicMRA 7/8 K47-B44 moe4

You've got that one Zogby showing Bush at +0.7, hardly a commanding lead, the Detroit News with Bush +1 (down from +4 the month before) and everything else is Kerry's -- even Fox News couldn't skew the results enough to help Bush!

Not only that, but going back to the beginning of the year, 8 out of the 10 polls showed Kerry leading as well.

I'm hoping we'll see his lead inch out of the margin of error soon, but there's really not much indication that Bush is going to take Michigan.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 10, 2004 03:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I agree, I think MI is in the bag for Kerry. The one state in the Mid-West that's really in doubt is WI. Polls show Bush leading there. Not sure if Kerry will win WI.

But, WI won't matter. If Kerry wins NH, PA, and FL, then WI is irrelevant. I think Bush will pull out a win in OH. Only because it's a very Republican state and the Republican machine will probably produce the votes to put him over the top. If Kerry wins OH, it's going to be by a very thin margin and will ensure his election.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 10, 2004 09:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Rock NJ, I think Kerry will win OH. If Bush only has a MOE lead in a poll, that will present a 50-50 election day tally. I don't think the Rasmussen poll reflected the Edwards selection bounce. Ohio always turns late to the Democrats. Unlike 2000 when cultural issues were on the table, the terrain is more about War and Jobs (losses).

The key is that Kerry needs a 175,000 vote margin coming out of Cuyahoga (Cleveland). He also needs good turnout in Dayton-Springfield, Toledo and Youngstown. Bush and Kerry will be tied in metro Columbus. Bush will get his base out in metro Cincinnati and in Southern Ohio.

Canton, and SE Ohio, are places that Clinton won twice but Bush won in 2000.

Posted by: pc at July 10, 2004 12:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think OH will be close. But, the polling has been leaning towards Bush, and it is a Republican leaning state. Every major office holder in Ohio is a Republican. Clinton probably wouldn't have won Ohio without Perot. I think Kerry has a chance due to job losses in OH, but in the end I think Bush will take it due to the inherent Republican nature of the state. But, I'm not pessimistic. Kerry can lose OH and win the election easily.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 10, 2004 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I live in OH. The GOP has had better funded,
well-known candidates in the state. I think OH is a conservative swing state. It's really not that Republican. The Democratic Party was inactive for about 8-10 years, and the Democratic have had crappy candidates for Governor, Senator, and other offices since John Glenn, Howard Metzenbaum, and Lee Fisher and Richard Celeste either retired or lost.

I think Ohio will; either be like 2000s Florida, or Kerry will win it. If Kerry loses it will be because of the voting machines. Ask Al Gore, Ohio always turns Democratic. A ten point victory for Bush became a 3.5 point victory on E-day. Besides there is a poll out recently I think by the Plain Dealer that had Kerry/Edwards up 50-44.

Posted by: pc at July 10, 2004 03:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Besides there is a poll out recently I think by the Plain Dealer that had Kerry/Edwards up 50-44.

That was the 6/23 ARG poll:

- ARG 6/23 K49-B43-N2 or K50-B44 moe4

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 11, 2004 01:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Are they using Diabold e-machines for voting in Ohio this fall?

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 11, 2004 11:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With Edwards on the ticket, Kerry should win Ohio. Ohio residents are extremely unhappy about the war, job losses, outsourcing, and a possible military draft after the election. All of the Ohio Republican office holders that you collectively cite in other posts are very unpopular. Didn't Gov. Taft raise the Ohio sales tax? Ohioans are paying through the nose in taxes. The fact that Ohio is so Republican bodes well for a Kerry/Edwards win. My biggest fears are the Republicans rigging the election with their Diebold voting machines or Bush cancelling the election due to a politically motivated terrorist threat. Believe me, our Constitution is in grave peril with this resident (Bush) and his administration.

Posted by: Shar at July 12, 2004 02:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ed, yes, I believe they are using Diebold voting machines in Ohio, but not in Cuyahoga county, a democratic part of the state. It doesn't matter, however, if Cuyahoga turns out in a landslide for Kerry/Edwards, because they can rig the voting machines in the Republican parts of the state, like Columbus and Cincinnati, to turn out more votes for Bush. The extra Bush votes will counterbalance the Kerry votes from democratic areas. Didn't the owner of Diebold claim that he would hand the state of Ohio to Bush?

Posted by: Shar at July 12, 2004 03:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Shar, Franklin County Columbus has a Democratic lean. You must be talking about metro Columbus which includes counties like Delaware, and Union which is GOP territory. The Republicans try to split Franklin County into half, which is how they still control congressional and legislative districts in the area. Even Gore carried Franklin County.

Posted by: pc at July 12, 2004 09:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Even Gore carried Franklin county"

I tired of all this criticism of Al Gore. There were a lot of circumstances working against him, money, lies, distortions, news events, etc, yet he never gave up. And despite everything, he actually did win the election, only Bush cheated his way into the White House. So please lay off.

Posted by: billy at July 12, 2004 02:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Billy, I was simply stating that Gore carried Franklin County even while scaling back field and TV efforts in Ohio.

Posted by: pc at July 12, 2004 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

pc, thanks for clarifying Franklin County, Columbus. Billy, I think that Gore made a big mistake selecting Lieberman for his VP. Both Gore and Lieberman are members of the DLC, the business or republican lite wing of the democratic party. Nader effectively ran against Gore because Gore/Lieberman lost some of their democratic base. Gore has been campaigning of late as he should have been four years ago. In the VP debate, Lieberman was all nice to Cheney. You couldn't differentiate between the two of them, hence what was the difference in voting for Bush or Gore? Nader made some valid points about tweedle dum and tweedle dee. Edwards is such a spectacular choice compared to Lieberman. In retrospect, Gore would have been better off selecting a younger, charismatic governor.

Don't underestimate Kerry. He's a decorated war veteran and a man of substance. Kerry/Edwards is a dream team.

Posted by: Shar at July 13, 2004 02:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Gore did not have as much support in the democratic party as Kerry (hopefully) has.
Gore had only a fraction of the money that Kerry has.
In the swing states Gore faced an unprecedented onslaught of TV ads full of lies and distortions. His disorganized campaign staff, shoched by the dishonesty of these ads, and lacking funds, wasn't able to respond effectively.
In Tennesse the Republicans suddenly launched an incredble blitz of these attack ads during the last month of the campaign. The democratic party in the state made no attempt to repond, no attemt to get out the vote, instead left Gore hanging in the wind.
The attack ads gave Bush the lead in the polls, and a lot of demoralized democrats threw in the towel. But Gore fought to the end. So lay off him.

Posted by: Billy at July 13, 2004 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nader has lost touch with reality. It's absurd to say that's there's hardly any difference between Gore and Bush.

If you don't live in a swing state and didn't see the Republican attacks on Gore, then you don't have a true picture of what happened in 2000. He wasn't prepared for such deceit and viciousness. How could anyone have been?
Hopefully Kerry and Edwards know what to expect, and will be able to respond.

Posted by: Billy at July 14, 2004 08:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was trying to tell the Greens in 2000 that Bush would be the worst thing to ever happen to the environmental movement. Unfortunately, I was right. Gore, while having faults, would have been the closest thing to environmentalist ever to sit in the White House.

Bush has been a total disaster for the environment. Not only haven't we seen environmental progress, but we've seen quite a setback for the environmental agenda over the past 4 years.

Gore should have offered Nader the position of EPA Adminstrator, in exchange for dropping his campaign. Gore would have won easily if he'd done that. Imagine the shivers that would sent through corporate board rooms. Nader coming in as EPA adminstrator. Nader would finally have the power to make a real impact. Perhaps someone should suggest this to Kerry.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 14, 2004 01:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I live in Cuyahoga County. I am hopeful that Ohio will go to Kerry because, just anecdotely, I have talked to more than a dozen people who say either that they voted for Bush or Nader last time or didn't vote at all, but will vote for Kerry this time. I haven't heard anyone say they voted for Gore last time and this time they are voting for Bush. We have a lot of Arab Americans who supported Bush last time but have changed their minds. I'm working hard to get them to the polls and also African Americans and college students.

Posted by: Bobbie at July 15, 2004 06:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

All of your comments are excellent. Bobbie, I couldn't agree with you more. I have spoken to many people in Ohio with voters' remorse and who are changing their votes. By the way, I saw Fahrenheit 9-11 and what a powerful film! I can't recall a movie when I laughed hysterically and also cried. Not only was Moore's movie a commentary about the 2000 election, the Bush residency, and Bush's wars, but it was a commentary on the lives of Americans.

Posted by: Shar at July 16, 2004 08:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The latest Zogby polls show Bush winning Florida and Ohio, Kerry needs to win Penn, Fl, and OH to win but Bush only need to win one. So much for Kerry 04

Posted by: Bob Morton at October 26, 2004 03:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Where do these trolls suddenly appear from ?
Kerry needs to win just 2 of PA, OH, FL and practically every recent poll shows him ahead in PA. OH and FL look like tossups, incidentally ZOgby shows Bush up by only 1 in both states. Y

Posted by: erg at October 26, 2004 03:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment