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Saturday, July 10, 2004

Finally, a New Mexico Poll (and it looks good!)

Posted by DavidNYC

ARG, admittedly not a very beloved pollster, has at least gone ahead and done something no one else has seen fit to do for months: taken a new poll in New Mexico. April results in parens:

Kerry: 51 (47)
Bush: 43 (47)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

An eight-point lead in a state decided by a Florida-size margin in 2000 looks pretty sweet right about now. What's more, Kerry and Edwards just hit the state tonight for a big (10,000-plus) rally. I'm very glad to see this - the Southwest was long overdue for a visit from the top of the ticket. For some truly excellent on-the-ground reporting of this event, check out gehrigsranch's diary on DKos. I personally really enjoy this kind of reportage, far more than some bloodless AP piece.

It also appears that we're (finally) about to open our New Mexico field office. So we've got a bunch of good NM news all at once. One of my fears has long been that by focusing on the three biggest swing states - FL, PA, OH - we might lose the election by the proverbial thousand small cuts: A New Mexico here, an Oregon there, maybe even a Wisconsin or two. Now, I'm sure that the Kerry camp and all our various allies haven't lost sight of all the smaller states (tonight's visit to NM is clear evidence of that), but it is nonetheless reassuring to see us with a decent hold on one of these crucial, if smaller, battlegrounds.

And I just gotta say: How great do these two guys look together?


It seems that both men have huge smiles in every picture I've seen all week - they look like they're really enjoying themselves out there. And Edwards has somehow made me more excited about Kerry - the former seems to have injected some new life and warmth into the latter. I'm not quite at Dean levels yet, but I feel really good about this ticket.

Posted at 01:28 AM in New Mexico | Technorati


You forgot to mention the Rassmussen poll on New Mexico: Kerry 49 Bush 42.

Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 10, 2004 04:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The 49-42 result was also from the same ARG poll, not Rasmussen. But that figure included Nader, and where possible, I'm not going to include polls that have Nader.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 10, 2004 04:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Haven't the ARG polls been pretty consistently more Democratic than many other polls?

Posted by: niq at July 10, 2004 07:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe so, nig, but I'm looking at the trendlines. Moving from even to plus-eight is what impresses me.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 10, 2004 09:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Flush the Johns! Kerry is so open-minded that his brains have fallen out.

Posted by: Susan at October 17, 2004 11:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WOW Susan that is an intelligent comment! (sarcasm) Thanks for the input, troll.

Posted by: oddofme at October 18, 2004 03:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Did you notice Zogby: In New Mexico
Bush 50 Kerry 42

Posted by: cjewells at October 26, 2004 03:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Zogby called the election right last time. And Weekly Reader has taken a poll and the kids have picked GWB by 63%. The WR poll has not been wrong since they started taking it.

Posted by: Bob Mitchell at October 26, 2004 03:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment