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Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Narrow Kerry Lead in MI

Posted by DavidNYC

EPIC/MRA shows Kerry with a small lead in MI (3/28 - 4/01 results in parens - and yes, they are completely identical):

Kerry: 47 (47)
Bush: 45 (45)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Kerry: 45 (45)
Bush: 43 (43)
Nader: 3 (3)
Undecided: 9 (9)
(MoE: ��4)

I admit I'm a bit nervous to see MI this close. Other polls have shown this race to be a bit wider, but not by much. (One SUSA poll gave Kerry a ten-point lead back in April, but that seems to be an outlier.) Given the lousy state of manufacturing jobs and the fact that Michigan's sizable Arab-American population has turned against Bush, I'd expect Kerry to be doing better here. I wonder if Bush's flip-flop on the steel tariffs has now helped him, though.

One piece of good news: Bush's favorability (46-49) and job approval (45-55) ratings both continued to drop and are now hovering, as you can see, below the Mendoza line.

Posted at 04:04 PM in Michigan | Technorati


It is Kerry numbers that's dropping, not Bush. Bush numbers have not changed much 43-48 max.

If Kerry continues to talk tough on Iraq/military, he is dead. Kerry will lose all antiwar/liberals votes if he keeps talking about Iraq and/or more troops for Iraq. I don't know who's advising on the military issue, but Kerry talking points are rather stupid. It is a trap that Kerry is slowly walking into.

Posted by: ben at June 8, 2004 04:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is to much speculation on what the Kerry campaign is doing but since they are picking up a good field program for the battleground states, I actually have some confidence that his numbers will grow strong by the end of the summer. Right now I think the sediment in peoples mind when being polled is not liking Bush, but then again I don't have TV anymore I may be missing some of the coverage.

Posted by: Stephen Mahood at June 9, 2004 11:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This month's Atlantic has a provocative article on the effect of Howard Stern on swing state voters. The general gist is that his dissatisfaction with Bush will push his swing state fans in that direction. What do you think? Also, in light of past discussions about ad buys and vindictive commercials, you might appreciate this article.

Posted by: Shimamoto at June 9, 2004 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Something worries me about Michigan. Even though it is trending Dem, even though its huge Arab-American population has sharply turned against Bush, and even though its been crushed by Bush's economic policies, it has consistently seemed closer than it should be. One factor could be that many African-Americans in the Detroit area are moving to the South. These numbers seem to indicate that such a movement could ineed be quite large.

Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 9, 2004 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Epic/MRA had Kerry 10 points down to Bush in December 2003, so he has made up 12 points in 7 months. True, he's been basically static or drifiting down since April.

I think the closeness of Michigan, the slippage in Ohio, West Virginia's movement, all this stuff is a strong indication that this is *not* going to be a landlslide or a huge win for Kerry, that it's going to be the close election that we've expected all along.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 9, 2004 04:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Howard Stern factor could swing states dem, I'd say that would work for some of the states, I'd have to look at some of the details of his listener base. I actually think it would help in MI. It really is amazing that Bush pushed so many people together, the idea that Howard Stern is a factor is quite moving.

Posted by: mahoodlum at June 9, 2004 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment