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Friday, June 04, 2004
Kerry Narrows Bush Lead in LA
Posted by DavidNYCLouisiana's a mystery to me: One poll shows Bush with a whopping 19-point lead, the next shows Kerry just six points behind, 48-42 (MoE: ��4%). Now, I know that different polls have different methodologies, but still, this seems like a remarkably wide difference to me.
As for the headline of this post, the prior poll by this outfit gave Bush a 10-point lead. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find the actual trendlines for the earlier March poll. (There seems to be nothing on Polling Report or Lexis.)
(Thanks to Hoffmania.)
UPDATE: Ed in the comments does the due diligence about this polling outfit - Marketing Research Institute - that I should have done, and warns us that MRI may very well be a GOP operation. Now, I think partisan polling has its place - it just has to be identified as such. The odd thing, though, is that this poll is one of the closest we've ever seen for LA, despite its possible partisan bias.
Posted at 09:42 PM in Louisiana | Technorati
Comments
You know, I think it's possible that the "Marketing Research Institute" run by "Verne Kennedy" is a GOP pollster and not an unbiased source. Goggling brought up some interesting results:
--Venre Kennedy and MRI did a survey for the Christian Coalition of Alabama to determine how effective their voter guides were.
--They were hired by "a group of 30 independent businessmen whose names were not released" to do polling of viable Republican candidates.
--according to this website for "SmartJury," a jury selection application, "MRI's client list ranges from Fortune 500 companies to numerous State Chambers of Commerce, and over 1,000 political campaigns, including campaigns for Governor, Congressional contests, U.S. Senate campaigns, State Referenda campaigns, and State Supreme Court elections."
--According to a press release: "Republican Lt. Governor candidate Stephen Rue has hired Suzanne Terrell's pollster Verne Kennedy of Marketing Research Institute of Pensacola as another member of his growing mainstream campaign organization."
--From PR Watch:
Dr. Verne Kennedy, president of the Pensacola, Florida-based Marketing Research Institute, offered a keynote address on yet another high-tech corporate intrusion into citizens' lives. Looking every bit the part of the absent-minded professor, Kennedy started off his speech with a rather peculiar apology."I feel a bit guilty, because some of these new technologies smack of Big Brother," he said as he described what he calls "DNA Grass Roots Targeting."
"DNA," in Kennedy's usage, stands for "demographic niche attributes," which MRI specializes in collecting from surveys, census records, election voting data, consumer and credit data. A person's "DNA profile" includes information such as his or her age, marital status, number of children, length of residence, homeowner or renter status, house value, net worth, number of years of schooling.
"Based upon a person's DNA, we can predict their reaction to a specific message," Kennedy said. DNA profiles are "extremely good at predicting behavior."
MRI specializes in selling this information to right-wing and Republican Party political candidates, along with corporate marketing groups.
Kennedy denied that his company uses confidential information such as the bank credit records, but he admitted that "some less scrupulous companies" are already providing this type of personal information to their clients.
I have no trouble using partisan polling if it's done in an objective manner, but it should be labelled as such and not presented as non-partisan polling. It seems probable that MRI is part of the Republican apparatus, and therefore that its results should be treated carefully.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 4, 2004 10:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
LA could be in play. The Dems don't usually win by big margins there, but Clinton trounced Dole in 1996 in LA. If Edwards in the VP, Kerry would probably pick up 5 points in a lot of moderate Southern states. If that happens, things could get really interesting. All in all, things are really breaking Kerry's way. It seems that as people start paying attention to the 2004 election, they're warming up to Kerry.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 5, 2004 07:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The more i think about it, the more i like Edwards
Posted by: steve at June 5, 2004 01:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The odd thing, though, is that this poll is one of the closest we've ever seen for LA, despite its possible partisan bias.
Since other polls in LA show Kerry 14 points out, I have to wonder if the MRI thing isn't meant as bait to tempt Kerry to spend some money in the state.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 9, 2004 10:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Verne Kennedy (despite being something of a partisan hack) is one of a select group of people who can actually poll Louisiana with a least a small amount of accuracy (LA is usually thought of as the worst state in the US to poll. Have a look at some old polling numbers from the 2003 Gubernatorial race, compare them to the result, and you'll see why) and as a result his numbers can't be ruled out totally. In fact they are almost certainly worth more than all the other numbers comin' out of Longland...
Posted by: Al at July 2, 2004 09:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A view from Missouri - bellweather for the country
Recent surveys for Missouri show Bush and Kerry to be even up. Interesting in this campaign is there are two areas Kerry has been in: KC and ST. Louis - both blue areas. Bush has campaigned there and also Columbia (another blue area), plus Springfield - which voted red.
Looks like the general plan by Bush is to confirm red voters in KC, STL and Columbia, while drumming up more support in Springfield (which is growing, while STL and KC are basically declining. Columbia is also expanding, but is surrounded by red counties.)
Another interesting point is that as people move out to STL and KC suburbs, they tend to vote more red than blue. Means Missouri will be trending more red in the future.
My own point is that they are ignoring less-populated areas north of the I-70 corridor (which runs from STL to Columbia to KC). While these are red counties, it would also be where Kerry could get conversions or Bush firm up his support.
As Missouri is noted as the most bellweather state in the Union, factors here might explain factors in other states.
Posted by: Robert Worstell at July 22, 2004 03:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment