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Thursday, June 10, 2004

ARG: Dead Heat in NH

Posted by DavidNYC

American Research Group's latest poll in the Granite State (3/30 - 4/1 in parens):

Kerry: 46 (43)
Bush: 46 (48)
Nader: 2 (3)
Unsure: 6 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

That's some pretty good movement for Kerry. Unfortunately, he has a pretty poor favorability numbers: 48-48. Bush isn't much different, clocking in at 49-46. I'm guessing that the long exposure during the primary season (and relentless attack ads by other Democrats) probably has permanently hurt Kerry here. I still think it's very winnable for us, especially when you consider that NH has been trending our way for some time.

Posted at 02:34 PM in New Hampshire | Technorati


I wanted to mention that I've taken a look at what effect Nader has on the polls by comparing 42 pairs of national head-to-head and 3-way results, and 12 in-state pairs.

My full report is here, but the short version is that on average Nader pulls between 1.5 and 2 points from Kerry when he's included in the polling.

(The "Nader Effect" was 1.52 percentage points for the national polls, 1.92 for the in-state polls, and 1.61 when everything is combined.)

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 10, 2004 06:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment