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Friday, June 18, 2004

ARG: Kerry Ahead in WV

Posted by DavidNYC

This is now the second poll in a row to show Kerry with a lead in West Virginia. (Mason-Dixon previously showed Kerry with a six-point lead.) ARG's numbers are below (late March in parens):

Kerry: 47 (46)
Bush: 44 (46)
Nader: 3 (2)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

As Kos points out, Kerry's favorables have gone up despite the millions Bush has spent trying to tear our nominee down. He was at 45-36 in March; now he's at 51-32. Bush, meanwhile, has cratered. He's gone from 61-37 to 43-48. Sucka.

Posted at 04:45 PM in West Virginia | Technorati


Yes, West Virginia is swinging towards Kerry and the Bush ads are having little or no effect. Great! Kerry definitely needs a state like West Virginia to win comfortably.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 18, 2004 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I almost can't believe how weel things are going in WV. The favorables imply that this will be a blowout. Perhaps 2000 was a fluke, and WV will be a lean Dem state both now and in the near future.

Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 18, 2004 08:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Aside from Mason-Dixon and ARG, the Zogby interactive battleground 6/6 results also had Kerry ahead: K46.6-B43.5-N2.2 moe4.4, which could well be a piece of evidence for taking the Zogby interactive polls more seriously.

I'm moving WV into Kerry's column.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 19, 2004 01:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I do think 2000 will turn out as a fluke with a Republican winning West Virginia. It had a lot to do with the fact that WV was worried about their coal jobs and possible environmental policies from a new Gore adminstration. Also, since WV is nominal a part of the South, it voted along with the rest of the region.

Certainly, WV is still a Democratic state, and without a Republican wave sweeping the country, it is one the Dems should win.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 19, 2004 07:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A fairly solid consensus among knowleagables here (WV) is that the reason Bush took WV in 2000 was primarily due to Charlton Heston showing up at a huge NRA rally in Beckley right before the election and hoisting his musket over his head and defiantly bellowing "FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS". Also, there is bitterness about the fact that Gore apparently either wrote us off or took us for granted, because he did not come here at all, at least approaching the election. The good news is that ACT has been here for 2 months and has offices in Charleston and Huntington. They have 14 full time paid canvassers supplied by SEIUWV and expect to get 16 more soon. We started canvassing in Parkersburg yesterday. Courtney came up from ACT and we had 7 people out. A drop in the bucket. They are not going to be able to cover the whole state by any means.

The hope that former news anchor Erik Wells might be able to knock off Rep. Shelly Moore Capito in 2nd Congressional Dist. is very dim. WV defines the concept of socailly conservative. I don't share everybody's euphoria about WV obviously being a Dem state. We are in the dogfight of our lives. I have never seen people so fired up. But at the Multi-Cultural festival in Parkersburg yesterday the Rep's were out in force wandering around the crowd with their Bush/Cheney stickers on. Also, all 3 of Wood County's county commissioners are Republicans. Both of our state senators are Republicans. All but one of our House of Delegates delegation are Republicans.

Lisa McMurray, ACT ex. dir., tells us that the country is slowly becoming more socially conservative. It is very possible that the long trendline could be showing WV slowly sliding into the solid South - even if we win this election. These are troubled times, and the polarization proceeds apace. Anyone, either outside or inside of WV who thinks they can predict our outcome is indulging in wishful thinking.

Posted by: Bill Ambrose at June 20, 2004 08:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

when did Byrd and Rockefeller become

Posted by: robert h. walker at September 23, 2004 05:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment