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Saturday, June 19, 2004

Narrow Race in WA According to Moore

Posted by DavidNYC

Moore Information, which recently did a poll in Oregon, has a new Washington poll out. (Moore, you'll recall, is a Republican outfit, but one that - at least for now - I'm willing to regard as fair-minded.) No trendlines available:

Kerry: 45
Bush: 44
Nader: 4
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

The newspaper article linked above seems to have access to more internals than Polling Report is showing, but there's nothing apparently on favorability. One slightly distressing finding: Bush is leading among independents, 40 to 36. Most state polls tend to show Kerry favored among this group.

One thing I've often heard people say is, "I didn't know Washington was a swing state" or even "Washington is not a swing state." I disagree, and I think poll results like this back me up. In 2000, Gore won the state by less than 6 points. Granted, this was a much wider margin than in neighboring Oregon, but it's too close for comfort. Both campaigns are on the air in WA (well, not Team Bush - they're dark for a couple of weeks), and I think it's a legit battleground.

P.S. The last WA poll had Kerry up four points.

(Thanks to Rimjob.)

Posted at 02:03 AM in Washington | Technorati


It is likely Bush can take Oregon. Even with the highest numbers of unemployment in the country (now dropped to 6.5%), his approval ratings here have stayed high. Two factors in play here -- remember, Oregon is an entirely 'Vote By Mail' state now and historically, older voters are more reliable in their likeliness to vote. Look at those numbers in any poll you see.

Also, with the recent revelation of former Gov. Goldschmidt's sexual rape/abuse of a teenager, the power structure of the Democrat party here is unraveling. From Gov. Kulongoski to the Multnomah County Sheriff to corporate executives, all are running for cover to save their own hides as it is being learned they covered this up for him for decades.

In other words, Kerry will be able to get no help from the Dem powers that be right now. He won't want the association that they can't give him anyway.

Posted by: WebGirl at June 19, 2004 02:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Actually, I think this poll is an outlier. The Mason-Dixon poll showing Kerry up by 4 in WA had the exact same dates, and every other recent WA poll has Kerry between 4 and 9 points ahead (with Zogby being the high-water mark). That includes this Republican poll by Public Opinion Strategies (which also has Kerry up by 4 in OR):


Posted by: Kevin at June 19, 2004 04:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's hard to believe that a pretty liberal state like Oregon would go for bush, even with the help of Nader. I know that it was close in 2000, but I think that that's more of an anomoly than anything.

Posted by: Jonathan at June 19, 2004 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I know people think of Oregon as liberal (because of the Portland area, etc.), but Chris's chart shows that Oregon has actually become more Republican in recent elections.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 19, 2004 05:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oregon isn't as liberal as you think. Much of rural Oregon is redneck gunrack territory and they go out and vote en mass. The liberals are a little less motivated to vote most years. But, perhaps with all the anti-Bush sentiment this year, Kerry can rally the troops to the polls. I think OR is still leaning Kerry, especially with CA and WA strongly in Kerry's camp.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 19, 2004 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If I were a Dem, and I'm not, I wouldn't worry too much about WA ... the state will go for Kerry. Oregon is a little bit tighter story, because those people really hate taxes. They won't even pay for public schools. I'm not even going to bother myself with the polls out of OR for, oh, another 3-4 months. It's going to be close. My one dollar bill has both OR and WA going Kerry.

Posted by: Mark Olsen at June 28, 2004 10:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I do not think either WA or OR will go for Bush. They voted for Gore last time around; and they are, as a whole, liberal states. I lived in both of them for 18 years, and just recently moved back to Texas, where I really miss the liberal mindset. The majority of Oregon's population is in the Portland area and it is liberal. Bush will carry southern Oregon and the other rural redneck counties, but they do not represent the majority population of Oregon. As for WA, Seattle and surrounding area are hugely liberal. No way will Bush win there.

Posted by: Darla at July 8, 2004 11:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment