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Saturday, June 05, 2004

Mason-Dixon: Sizable Kerry Lead in WV

Posted by DavidNYC

The last few polls in West Virginia have either given Bush the lead or shown the race to be neck-and-neck. Mason-Dixon offers up a new poll which shows Kerry with a pretty sizable lead:

Kerry: 47
Bush: 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ��4%)

There are no trendlines here. And unfortunately, this poll is only available on Polling Report's subscribers-only section. In fact, this poll is described as having been performed for a "private client." I don't know how big a force independent voters are in WV, but they are leaning toward Kerry 45-35 in this poll.

As I recall, the Democratic candidate for governor in WV was reluctant to even mention John Kerry's name when saying he supported his party's nominee for President. Hopefully, polls results like this will convince the WV Democratic establishment that supporting Kerry is not an electoral death-sentence. To the contrary: It would seem that supporting Bush is now the riskier move.

P.S. The Prospect has a new Purple People Watch column up. I wish, though, that they'd be a bit more blog-like about it, and post links to polls, news stories, etc. On second thought, nah, I don't really want the competition.

Posted at 02:10 PM in West Virginia | Technorati


I've complained about Mason-Dixon's Republican bias before, now I may just start complaining out their outlier bias. Although it is heartening to think about, Kerry up six in WV is a little difficult to swallow.

Unless, of course, 2000 was a pro-GOP fluke, in which case this poll might be right on target.

Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 5, 2004 06:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry up by 6 points in WV, while surprising, isn't too hard to swallow. It is a Democratic state after all, and Kerry has been making strides in other states. It could be a fluke or it could be an idication of a major shift towards Kerry.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 5, 2004 08:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It would fall right in with New England and the rust belt's anti-Bush mood. I have WV going Dem in the election.

Posted by: steve at June 6, 2004 12:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sunday-- Each week seems to bring a pleasant, new surprise; new Ras/polls suggest that NC and VA will soon move (WV already has) into the "swing" category. Lookin' better and better.

Posted by: leftygomez at June 6, 2004 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The thing that no one seems to have asked is what happens to Nader's votes in close states as the campaign draws to a close. As an old Naderite, I think that two-thirds at least will go to Kerry. Can anyone out there give an estimate on what happens if two-thirds of Nader voters go to Kerry? I presume that some will stick with Ralph even if he asks them to reconsider (which could happen).

Posted by: Charlie Monaghan at June 7, 2004 03:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No one seems to have asked the question what happens to the Nader votes as Election Day draws near. As an old Naderite, I think at least two-thirds of those presently for Nader will move to Kerry in close states. Can any wonk out there figure out what happens in swing states if Kerry picks up two-thirds of the current Nader vote?

Posted by: Charlie Monaghan at June 7, 2004 03:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nader won't even get on more than a dozen state ballots. He won't be a big factor this year. Nader voters will either vote Green, stay home or overwhelmingly support Kerry this fall. I'd say the break will be 20% Green, 20% Bush, 60% Kerry amongst former Nader voters. For some reason, some Nader voters will actually vote for Bush?!? Go figure? Some people are clueless.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 7, 2004 04:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment