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Wednesday, April 21, 2004

PA: Quinnipiac Poll Shows Kerry Behind Bush

Posted by DavidNYC

There has been a TON of discussion over at the DailyKos about a new Quinnipiac poll showing Kerry trailing Bush in PA:

Bush: 45
Kerry: 39
Nader: 8

Kerry also trails in a head-to-head without Nader:

Bush: 46
Kerry: 42
(MOE: ��3.5%)

I'm not buying Nader at 8, and neither is former Green Party organizer Domne. Of course, there's still a four-point spread even without Ralph, but Winger tells us to catch our collective breath. He breaks down the numbers pretty convincingly to demonstrate that this is actually a very positive poll for Kerry.

Now sure, I don't like seeing numbers like this, and if the polls are still the same in August or September, I'll get a lot more panicked. But don't forget that Bush has spent roughly a trillion dollars, give or take, in the past month, while Kerry has spent about zilch. I'd also have to imagine that much of the political oxygen in PA is being sucked up by the GOP Senate primary, which is on Tuesday the 27th. In other words, it's early, and our man is still holding his own despite the huge onslaught.

Posted at 04:24 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


Bush is resolute.
So are lemmings.
beat bush. get paid.

Posted by: Robert at April 21, 2004 07:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The important numbers are 43-48 for Bush since Dec, 03. Bush has not been above 50 sine 12/03.
Bush has 40% solid maniacs for him no matter what.
Kerry may not have solid 40% Demos for him though, that could be a problem.

Another problem is Nader's voters. They are still very crazy about Nader. If Nader gets on ballots in battle-ground states, Kerry won't have a chance

Posted by: dave at April 22, 2004 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Before anyone gets too excited or too depressed, take a look at the calendar.

Also, keep in mind that there is a hot Republican primary in PA between whack-a-do-wonder-boy, my main man, "give it to me, give it to me" Pat Toomey, and one of those rare breeds of Republicans (one of the four left in the wild) - a moderate, both of whom are trying to be the most Dubbya friendly.

Can't be too careful, though. We understand Dubbya can find PA on a map.

Posted by: Stockton & Tweed at April 22, 2004 09:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pennsylvania is a pretty conservative state overall. Kerry has an uphill battle to win PA. I know the Dems have won in PA the last three elections, but those were Southern Dems who were probably more culturally compatible with some of the rural PA swing voters. Kerry is a Northeastern liberal. He'll appeal to people in the Philly area, but other parts of PA, including Pittsburg will be hard sell for him.

I'd say PA will be the bellweather state this year. Ohio will be irrelevant if Kerry can't win PA.

Posted by: Rock_nj at April 22, 2004 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Correction. Kerry has spent over 53 million.
Bush has spent just over 99 million.

Kerry has spentmore than half of what Bush has.

Bush has raised about 187 million. Kerry has raised about 77 million with 6 or so million in mortgage loans (=83 or 84 million).

Kerry has raised 41% of Bush's total, and its only April....but remember, Kerry must abide by spending limits once he gets the nomination in June.....Bush doesnt have to follow limits until Sept 1...then he'll have a warchest of 45+ mill (govt supplied) while Kerry will have used much of his up by then.....Thats a damn good strategy by Rove.

Posted by: jonathon at April 24, 2004 03:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pa. is vital to both men.If Bush win Pa. and I think he can,the race is over.Pa. democrats have to work VERY hard to keep this from happening. FRANK

Posted by: frank at May 27, 2004 02:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment