« Six-Month Blog-o-Versary | Main | PA: Quinnipiac Poll Shows Kerry Behind Bush »
Wednesday, April 21, 2004
NJ: Now That's More Like It
Posted by DavidNYCLast week, some folks were a bit concerned about an FDU poll which showed NJ to be absurdly close. Today, Rasmussen releases a poll of its own which looks a little bit more like what we'd expect:
Kerry: 51
Bush: 39
Not Sure: 6
Other: 3
(MOE: ��4.5)
Hopefully, a few more polls like this will put to rest any delusions that New Jersey is "in play." However, I don't like the fact that Kerry's favorability rating is just 52% - Dubya's is 48%. This may partly have to do with name recognition, but Rasmussen doesn't give details on those figures. This concerns me, though, because Bushco hasn't been advertising in NJ, so it seems a bit mysterious that Kerry's favorability should be so low. (I wonder how the two candidates' unfavorability ratings compare, though: I'm gonna guess that Bush's is higher than Kerry's.)
A lot of people have a rather jaundiced view of Rasmussen, decrying him as a Republican hack in non-partisan clothing. My understanding is that the esteemed folks at Polling Report don't even include Rasmussen in their polling round-up, and I've read (though haven't seen it confirmed) that this is because of concerns about Rasmussen's quality. And language like this does irk me:
Fifty-nine percent (59%) of New Jersey voters see the President as politically conservative. Twenty-six percent (26%) say moderate.Forty-seven percent (47%) say Kerry is politically liberal while just 41% label the Massachusetts Senator as moderate. (Emphasis added.)
So, 26% say that George Bush is moderate, but "just 41%" say that Kerry is moderate? Sorry, folks, it doesn't work that way: You have to put the "just" in front of Bush's number, if you're going to use it at all. (As an aside, I do love the fact that, presumably, some 15% of Americans think Bush is a liberal.)
All this means is treat Rasmussen with a grain of salt. They provide good crack (in the form of frequent polls), but it's not high-quality crack. Once I see a result like this from, say, Quinnipiac, then we can permanently put the nail in Bush's Garden State coffin.
(Thanks to Friar.)
Posted at 03:53 PM in Safe States | Technorati