| In this diary, three minority-majority districts are created. Granted, they are not as compact (and would likely not pass a Supreme Court test as they are pretty clear racial gerrymanders), and the African-American percentage is only 49% in each district using the "new population estimate" in Dave's Application.
Here's a quick breakdown (pop. deviation is +/- 865 persons, btw).
Yellow - 49% black; 45% white (50%+ black; 46% white using "old" estimate)
Teal - 49% black; 46% white (51% black; 45% white using "old" estimate)
Gray - 49% black; 44% white (49% black; 47% white using "old" estimate)
Blue - 81% white; 10% black
Red - 78% white; 16% black
Green - 82% white; 10% black
Purple - 79% white; 14% black
Nevertheless, I am confident that, assuming the population figures under the Application are correct, it would be quite possible to make each district 50%+ African-American if precincts were split, lines were further refined, etc. -- but that's not really my point, as three black-majority districts will certainly not be drawn in South Carolina in 2012.
My point instead is that -- if it's basically possible to draw 3 black-majority seats in South Carolina -- then it's almost a "must" that just 2 are drawn, and furthermore, the Obama DOJ should not pre-clear any map of a state under the VRA where that map does not reflect the diversity of the state.
The above point should apply for states like South Carolina, which are gaining seats; states like Louisiana, which are losing seats; and states like Virginia, where the number of seats remains constant. In a previous diary over a year ago, I drew 2 compact black-majority seats in Louisiana:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Just yesterday, roguemapper demonstrated how 6 compact minority-majority seats can be drawn in Georgia:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Here's a map I did a while back (and posted only as an attachment to a diary comment) where Virginia gets 2 black-majority seats (and I have seen basically the same map done independently by several other posters on this site). About 20% of Virginia's population is African-American; yet there is currently only 1 black-majority district (out of 11) -- where all the black population is "packed." Incidentally, using the "new population estimate", the green district here (Hampton Roads area) is 51% black - 41% white, while the yellow district (Richmond and Southside area) is 52% black - 42% white.
Now, below is a really important map -- that of geographic areas covered by the VRA:
I'm really not sure what the Obama DOJ will do regarding this issue, but I hope that they will take a strong stand in favor of drawing districts which reflect the diversity of the covered states, and will pre-clear only those maps which pass muster under that standard. |
