Google Ads


Site Stats

Georgia w/ 6 VRA seats

by: roguemapper

Tue Jan 18, 2011 at 7:34 PM EST


OK, so the recent thread on potential VRA seats in South Carolina has got me thinking about other Southern states. Leaving aside Texas & Florida, which are special cases in my view, the most obvious candidate seems to be Georgia as it also gained a seat for this redistricting cycle.

In short, I wanted to see whether I could increase the number of compact minority-majority seats. As an initial (somewhat crude) effort, the following map features six.

One thing I've realized, having made this map, is that the apparent conventional wisdom that Georgia's 14th seat will be a heavily Republican seat north of Atlanta may very well be incorrect. It's quite easy to draw a fairly compact minority-majority seat north of GA-04 & GA-05, and I'd say a strong argument could be made that the VRA would require as much.

Whether it would require that GA-12 become a bare majority-minority district as in my map below is another matter. Anyhow, more after the fold!
roguemapper :: Georgia w/ 6 VRA seats
Below I've posted a statewide map and a close-up of the Atlanta region. The following districts on this map are majority-minority.

Downstate:

GA-02: 51% minority (45% Black - 4% Latino)
GA-12: 51% minority (46% Black - 2% Latino)

Atlanta Metro:

GA-04: 72% minority (56% Black - 10% Latino)
GA-05: 67% minority (53% Black - 10% Latino)
GA-13: 64% minority (52% Black - 8% Latino)
GA-14: 54% minority (22% Black - 20% Latino)

The usual caveat applies that my maps are only as good as the data at Dave's app.

Here are the maps:

Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Georgia w/ 6 VRA seats | 28 comments
This is really elegant
AND manages to give all of Savannah to Kingston.

Exquisite work as usual.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
You have gotta be
my favorite mapper here.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Here's my question:
isn't your 14th pretty likely to elect a Republican?  
No
It's at worse a swing district. Obama would've won with 69,621 votes to 68,670 votes for McCain (yes, I just added it up precinct by precinct .. sigh).
[ Parent ]
Wow, I'm impressed by that
However, my view is that those figures = "leans Republican" for now a la Newton County.  
[ Parent ]
A 1000 vote margin for Obama?
Doesn't that make it slightly r-leaning? Especially since the minority turnout in 08 is not likely to be replicated in a non-Obama scenario? (Good work tallying up all those precincts, btw.)

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Presumably
The Democratic nominee in a minority-majority district would be a minority candidate, and so I assume the minority turnout would be similarly enhanced by that.

But it's a close call, to say the least. I don't object to the idea that it'd be a slight GOP lean, though I think "toss-up" would be a better description (at least until it gets an incumbent).

[ Parent ]
For sure it's a winnable district
From what I know of the local demographics, it's calling out for a business-friendly black candidate to draw some moderate wealthy white voters (I.e., a David Scott clone).  

If I'm the DCCC, I go all-in for it.  

[ Parent ]
The problem with this district for me
is that it's almost equal-parts Hispanic and black, so any candidate would have to find a way to drive up turnout among two minority populations with sometimes differing interests and at the same time not get crushed with the white population. Kind of a hard place to be. However, I believe that the Hispanic population in this district is growing pretty quickly, so it should be getting more and more democratic as time goes on.  

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
One thing does give me pause
I realized that the vote totals are drastically low for a district that should be in the ballpark of 1/14th of Georgia's statewide total, and I realized there's a good reason for that: Only Gwinnett County includes the absentee vote by precinct. The other three counties included in my GA-14 district report it as a countywide figure.

So, these are only polling location figures in the case of the Cobb, Fulton, and DeKalb precincts.

However, it's worth noting that Obama ran consistently stronger in the Georgia absentee vote than in the polling vote, so if anything my figure is all but certain to be somewhat understating Obama's winning margin in the projected GA-14 district.

[ Parent ]
I'm not confident about it short-term, but it should be moving our way.
That area of Gwinnett County is both growing and getting even more heavily minority.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
This map is probably even neater than the current one
And the fact that the 8th is now safer might even lessen GOP opposition a little.

Male, VA-08
Last I checked, African Americans were 30% of GA
6/14 districts would be 43%.

Does the VRA support the creation of a higher proportion of districts for a group than their % of population?

(30% of 14 would be 4.2 districts)

I think
this is a hypothetical map just to show it can be done.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
As the Republicans often say
the VRA is not about achieving proportional representation. That's just one benchmark you can use to measure the relative fairness of a plan.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think it specifically support or prohibit it
As far as I know, the VRA makes no mention of the proportion of district that are represented by a minority compared to that minority's overall percentage of the population. Same way that it doesn't require that 20% of VA's districts are African American, even though African Americans are 20% of the population. The VRA only looks at the possibility of drawing compact majority-minority districts.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
That answers my question
thank you.
[ Parent ]
Hispanic population
I'm not sure about the Hispanic population in Georgia, but that probably adds a few points to the minorities in the state above the African-American only number.
[ Parent ]
the application give the next for the new data

30% Black
8% Hispanic
3% Asian
1% Others
-----------
42% Minorities

(and 58% white)

This agrees with this map's proportions.

[ Parent ]
Georgia 9-5 or 10-4
The only question with Georgia will be do Reps reduce the AA percentage in Barrow GA 12 to make it rep, or do they concede it and settle for 9-5, with the new district being Rep in north Georgia. I am guessing they will take GA-12 from mid 40's to low to middle 30's AA % and take out Barrow, so 10-4 it is.
The republicans can do worse here

If they are not VRA protection for GA-02 and GA-12. Both would be in risk.
[ Parent ]
The realities of political geography make going after those two very iffy.
There are a lot of (mostly/partially) contiguous black areas in Middle and South Georgia.  It's going to be hard for Republicans to white it all out without creating a dummymander.

Plus, they need to shore up Austin Scott in GA-08.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I prove not it, but

but I think it would be not difficult to make R+10 with 25% black (something like the current GA-08). Then it would be not necessary many districts for it. The current GA-02 and GA-12 are very close to 50% black and are only D+1.
[ Parent ]
It is a nice map, very interesting

With nice goals. I like.

Unfortunately the republicans will do it far worse.

They will...
But it could easily fail preclearance if they do.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
While I tell not the same for other states, like Wisconsin or Michigan

Georgia give chance of improve to the republicans. It would be a lot easier to do a 14R+0D map for Georgia than a 6R-2D map for Wisconsin.

My numbers tell Georgia has still the most democratic map in all the 50 states taking into account the average of the state (R+7), then, the republicans have room for improve. I think only the VRA can stop them. If GA-02 and GA-12 have not the VRA protection I think will be easily gerrymandered.

[ Parent ]
The Problem
The VRA looks more at the makeup of the potential electorate, not the census population.  It's a limitation of Dave's program which gives only census data, but since many Hispanic voters are unregistered and/or non-citizens and/or under 18, you have to mentally adjust for this.  It's why TX-27 elected a weak Republican and split for Obama/McCain at about the national rate, despite being ~70% Hispanic, and its why despite the ability to draw both a 50%+ Puerto Rican district and a 60%+ Mexican American district in Illinois, the VRA probably only requires one Hispanic majority district.  

I would guess that the 14th as you've drawn it probably has a white majority electorate; 12 is a close call, and 2 is probably OK (obviously 4, 5, and 13 are OK).  You may be able to tweak 14 by moving around the 4th and 5th a bit though?

But minor criticisms aside, truly over-the-top outstanding work.

Georgia w/ 6 VRA seats | 28 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox