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Redistricting Louisiana

by: silver spring

Sat Oct 03, 2009 at 9:56 PM EDT


Using Dave's Application, I have drawn a redistricting plan for Louisiana.  It appears that the state will be losing one seat in 2012, so the plan here has six seats.  There is currently only one Democrat in the entire delegation, and this plan aims to make that two or three Democrats, including two African-Americans.  I tried to make the map so districts are relatively compact, no parish is split among more than two districts, and altogether only 13 out of Louisiana's 64 parishes are split at all.  
silver spring :: Redistricting Louisiana
Louisiana's legislature is currently Democratic controlled, although it may switch to GOP or divided control by 2012.  The governor is a Republican.  Nevertheless, the state is about 1/3 black, and so out of 6 seats, two should ideally be represented by an African-American.  With preclearance and VRA requirements, it may indeed be possible to draw a plan such as this and the Obama DOJ may even aim at making such a plan mandatory (even if state government control was all in GOP  hands).  Even with a huge loss of population in New Orleans, two relatively compact African-American Democratic seats centered on New Orleans (LA-2) and Baton Rouge (LA-6), respectively, are still quite feasible.  

The third possible Democratic seat, LA-4, would be in the northern part of the state (with GOP control, it would perhaps be hard to draw the seat this way, but if the legislature stays Democratic, it may be possible, especially because the seat as drawn is quite compact).  I must admit I am not that familiar with the intricacies of Louisiana politics, so perhaps this plan would not work at all, but I'm throwing it out there anyhow.

Photobucket

District 1 - blue

81% white; 9% black; 21% Obama; 78% McCain

Suburbs and exurbs of New Orleans and Baton Rouge, this district would become perhaps the most Republican congressional district in the country under this plan.

District 2 - green

50% black (50%+); 40% white; 66% Obama; 33% McCain

Due to large population losses following Katrina, this New Orleans based district has to necessarily expand geographically.  I make it go into areas south and west of the city, maximizing black and Democratic numbers.  The new district is less Democratic than the current one (which is 74% Obama) but whichever Democrat beats Cao in 2010 should have no trouble here come 2012.

District 3 - red

73% white; 18% black; 28% Obama; 70% McCain

This district includes a good part of "Cajun Country" in southern Louisiana as well as the eastern part of East Baton Rouge parish.  The new seat is heavily GOP.

District 4 - purple

55% white; 40% black; 44% Obama; 55% McCain

If Carmouche had run under these new lines, he would have very likely won last year, as the current district is only 40% Obama/59% McCain and Carmouche lost to Fleming by a couple hundred votes.  Whether Carmouche or another Democrat can win here in the future is another story, but the district might be competitive at some point in the next decade.

District  5 - teal

77% white; 17% black; 26% Obama; 73% McCain

The new 5th combines much of the current 5th and 7th districts in central and southwestern Louisiana, and should be a GOP stronghold under this plan.

District 6 - yellow

53% black; 42% white; 57% Obama; 41% McCain

This new district includes most of Baton Rouge and most areas bordering the state of Mississippi.  The current 6th is only 41% Obama/57% McCain and this plan flips those numbers around to 57% Obama/41% McCain.  The district is sufficiently Democratic and African-American to elect a black Democrat here.

So that's my plan for Louisiana. I welcome your comments.
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Redistricting Louisiana | 45 comments
The results in the 4th district say it all
What unbelievable racial polarization.  
only in New Orleans is ...
there any sizeable number of whites who voted for Obama.
[ Parent ]
I love your LA-06!
But I can't believe a 53% black district only went 57% for Obama. The polarization there is unreal.
some of the parishes in that area were ..
indeed unbelievable:

Washington Parish - 31% black; 33% Obama

Tensas - 53% black; 54% Obama

Concordia - 39% black; 39.5% Obama

East Feliciana - 44% black; 44% Obama

and worst of all:

Madison - 60% black; 58.5% Obama

East Carroll - 65% black; 64% Obama

West Feliciana - 49% black; 43% Obama !

(perhaps a sizeable percentage of African-Americans in these three are too young to vote ?? but still !)

[ Parent ]
Unreal!

[ Parent ]
We have some of that in Georgia
Turner County, in Southwestern Georgia, was 41% black in 2000 (There's no estimate, I assume because of its small size).  Obama got 40.2%.  This county, by the way, is infamous for having segregated proms until recently.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
West Feliciana
A large number of people in the county are non-voters because they're in Angola Prison.  
[ Parent ]
I just figured out West Feliciana above ..
Angola prison ... (now the numbers there make more sense)
[ Parent ]
If we hold Melancon's seat
I wonder how the redistricting will change.  Would be interesting if come 2012 Louisiana's districts are split 3-3.
I'd like to know
If a Democrat succeeds Melancon, then is the new 3rd traditionally-Democratic-enough for the Democrat to hold it?

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
historically ..
historically yes but this district became first in modern LA history to elect a Republican, in 1972 (there were Republican reps back in the 19th century) and last year went 61% McCain -- so very iffy these days.
[ Parent ]
Not a good map....
gutted things. I made my map to protect the center of the Cajun seat, keeping a few cajun counties, St. John and moving up past ascencion, taking in Opelousas and most of Baton Rouge Parishes except for the wealthy 80% white and heavily Republican areas. I created two strong South Louisiana seats but neither one was majority black because I take a hardline stance against racial gerrymandering as we end up with corrupt and usually conservative black machine politicians who continue to further the racial divide. I kept Flemings district competitive, my version was about the same as yours, but I have thought about more radically making it take in straight across North Louisiana and absorb Delta Counties.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
This is unfair
we end up with corrupt and usually conservative black machine politicians who continue to further the racial divide.

Outside of Alcee Hastings (who is not conservative), name me one other black Congressperson who fits this category in the South.  The ones that did, Jefferson, McKinney, and Nikki Tinker, were defeated in the primary or general election.  

[ Parent ]
David Scott
He is from Georgia's 13th Congressional district. I do not know how corrupt he is but he is not very Liberal.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Artur Davis
Artur Davis isn't corrupt, but he is conservative. Or at least, he votes like he is.

That said, I totally disagree with ArkDem's assessment. Black Southerners almost always toe the Democratic line while white Dems from the South almost always do not. Examples: Parker Griffith, Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor, Dan Boren, Travis Childers, Jim Cooper, Charlie Melancon...and those are just the ones off the top of my head.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Allow me to start naming names
Corrine Brown, Kendrick Meeks, (nowhere near as liberal as his district and the scion of a political machine), David Scott, though you are right, some of the worsts have been losing, among others you forgot Harold Ford in your list of people no longer in office.

In general though the few such districts that break the trend, such as Mel Watt, still function only to take of what could be the Democratic votes of two districts; one of which would still be likely to vote for a black Democrat. the 50% rule is outdated and needs to be dropped to a 40% rule. Even David Scott's serves to shore up the various Republican districts around Atlanta with its strange convoluted tendril like qualities.

Clyburn's district could actually form the core of two Democratic districts that also took out more Democratic parts of Brown's and Wilson's districts. Corrine Brown's district in Florida is solely designed to take up the space of what used to make two Democratic districts, (and they she likes it that way). Those constitute the group of the most eggregious offenders.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I agree (except ..)
"the 50% rule is outdated and needs to be dropped to a 40% rule"

re. looking at this from a political perspective, I agree with you re. the above .. but only for 90% of the country even perhaps incl. parts of SC and GA (but not for the deepest deep south areas like parts of AL, MS, and LA in particular) .. a 45% black district in LA could still easily go GOP these days, the polarization there is unbelievable)...

re. looking at this from a legal perspective, the DOJ will not allow dumping current majority black districts (and a recent Supreme Court decision, in effect, basically makes the 50% rule necessary also -- at least for already existing districts) .. I would personally also prefer a 40% or 45% "rule" in some areas (in MD where I live that would work ideally), but all maps have to adhere to a legal framework also.

[ Parent ]
no it couldn't lol,
simply put GOPers don't win 45% black districts. Now Democrats would need either a good black candidate or a white candidate who is capable of building a strong coalition with the local black communities and instill enthusiasm among that demographic. Either way hard for them to hold it, their is polarization, but a local Democrat not named Obama, black or not, can still usually outdo Obama's performance by the degree of some ten points or so at least among the white vote, if not twenty. North Louisiana is the worst, that area spanning into the Delta has the worst racial polarization you will find in the south, so it would depend how you had the district set up.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Well Brown's district is not actually 50% black IIRC
and she would probably win in a 40-45% black district.  I don't consider South Florida as a Southern area, and the only use in reducing the black population in Meek's district is to stick those areas in Cuban districts, but no one will go for that.
David Scott is not a complete liberal (he is a Blue Dog, unacceptable from that district), but I've seen nothing to indicate that he is corrupt or from a political machine.  Further, the district was initially drawn as a white majority district, which Scott won the primary with a majority.

I don't buy your argument that black majority districts result in conservative corrupt and machine politicians.  Many of those elected from them are very good Congresspeople, Bobby Scott, Jim Clyburn, John Lewis, Eddie Bernice Johnson, etc.  Further, the racial polarization is so high in the South that a black Democrat would have trouble winning a 40-45% black district outside the big cities.

I do agree, however, that outside the South (Obama got 49% of the white vote outside the South), there is no need for black majority districts anymore.

[ Parent ]
just curious ...
where did you find the 49% figure ?  I saw 51% a while back (but don't remember where) so it's apparently close to 50% either way; maybe it depends on how the South is defined (?)
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia has it at 49.3% black
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...

in 2000.  (which is what matter for this argument, as the districts were drawn using 2000 data).  

In addition, Brown's original black majority district in the 1990s was struck down, but she handily won her white-majority district in 1996-2000.  

[ Parent ]
My point here being
that the supposed corrupt conservative political machine hacks who can win in black majority districts can also win in 40% black districts as well.

I don't put Brown, Meek, or Scott as corrupt.

[ Parent ]
sorry, I meant ...
49% in re. to Obama's percentage of white vote outside the South -- ???
[ Parent ]
I computed it using exit polls
and total voters in each state.  Obama got 49.1 and McCain 48.8.  I used the South as the Confederacy plus OK, KY, and WV.
[ Parent ]
If you remove WV
it goes to 49.0 to 48.8.
[ Parent ]
thanks !
so Obama still "won" by a bare plurality !
[ Parent ]
Although if the South is considered
to be Confederacy only, McCain would win the "non-Southern" white vote 49.4 to 48.4.
[ Parent ]
thanks !
I meant to post my comment below here; too much beer !

that's how I would define the South too, btw (not sure why a lot of surveys don't include OK as part of the South; parts of OK are as southern -- culturally -- as they come...)

[ Parent ]
one thing will not work ....
"I created two strong South Louisiana seats but neither one was majority black "

any LA map that does not have at least one majority black district will not work under the current VRA.

[ Parent ]
Unless there were so few districts
that a majority black district satisfying Miller v. Johnson couldn't be drawn--probably.

That will not be an issue next year.  

[ Parent ]
Would Republicans Buy This?
So this would mean that Cassidy would run in what's Melancon's district now, and Alexander and Boustany would be forced to run against one another, right? Would Republicans in Baton Rouge go along with that? It looks like this could be a 3 Republican/2 Democrats/1 Toss-up (Fleming's) map, and that seems reasonable given the demands of the VRA. But I'm not sure the Republicans would want to dislodge their incumbents in this way.
Forget Republicans
Republicans wouldn't like this, but conservative white Democrats would hate it almost as much. They'd lose Melancon's Cajun seat for sure, with no chance of getting it back. The new 6 and the new 2 would almost certainly get black reps and so there's nowhere to go for white Dems, except, maybe, the new 4.

My guess is that Repubs and Blue Dogs would try to make a 70%-ish black district out of the black parts of Baton Rouge and NOLA, and boost black percentages in one other district (6, probably) to make it competitive enough under VRA so that it passes muster. But have that district still white enough that a black "liberal" couldn't win a general against a non-terribly-wingnutty Republican, but a white Blug Dog Dem could....roughly, the setup of your #4.

The best hope for this map (and it's not an unreasonable one, I think) is that VRA would require two "black seats" and we'd wind up with something like this configuration. Still, I think this is a great map and would be the best option I've seen if the goal is electing actual Democrats. Well done.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I sometimes wonder
if we could do anything to help with this. Like submitting these maps to the Justice Dept as proof that LA, SC, and AL all deserve a 2nd black district.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
I'm now of the opinion
after the election results in 2008, that only the South and the border states should be subject to majority-minority seats requirement of the VRA.  And the rules for the Deep South states should be very strict, as many black majority districts as needed to give blacks fair representation.  That means 2 in LA, 1 plus an influence (40%) in MS, 2 in Alabama, 4 plus an influence in Georgia, 1 in TN, 2 in NC, 1 plus an influence in VA, and 2 black and several Latino districts in TX.

A black can easily win a 35% black district in Illinois or New Jersey.  Yet a black would have almost no chance in a 35% black district in Mississippi or Alabama.  

[ Parent ]
black Republican
Could a black Republican win a 35% black district in the Deep South?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Question is against whom
a black Democrat or a white Democrat.  Against the latter, not likely, against the former, maybe.
[ Parent ]
The Republicans have run
black candidates in the delta before. I don't know if they've ever won before.  
[ Parent ]
But they have run them
in black majority districts, not in white majority ones.
[ Parent ]
For better or worse
in the deep south the Democratic party is the black party and the Republican party is the white party, especially for federal office. I think the interesting question would be whether a black Republican would beat a white Democrat in a white majority district (with a significant black population). Of course, such a nomination would never occur. . .
[ Parent ]
The answer is no
A white Dem running against a black Repub would get at least 40% of whites and 75% of blacks.  That means if blacks make up 30% of the district or more, the white Dem will win.  If it is less than 20%, I'd bet on the black Repub.
[ Parent ]
On the one hand
See Jindal v. Blanco 2003, but see Jindal 2007. But neither is directly on point.

Like I said, a kind of unanswered question.  

[ Parent ]
Jindal does better than a black
It is a different question I think.
[ Parent ]
JC Watts
I ask because I think JC Watts or someone like him could win any majority white Southern seat.  If that is true, isn't it a question of ideology more than race.  Nancy Pelosi could not win any majority white southern district.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Watts could win a Southern state/district
that is less than 30% black against a white Dem.  He would probably lose a district more than 30% black against any white Dem.  Race is a factor in Oklahoma, but not nearly as much as MS or AL.

Nancy Pelosi is not a Southerner, so of course she wouldn't win there.  But a Southern liberal white Democrat who has ties to the area could win a district that is 40% black.  For example, Josh Segall got 47% in AL-3, which is 32% black. I doubt an actual black Democrat would in a rural area.  

Of course, it is quite different in urban areas, a black Democrat could win in 35% black districts in RTP or the Charlotte or Atlanta suburbs.

[ Parent ]
The "no retrogression" interpretation
makes that difficult to imagine. IMO, we would be in a better position if Cleo Fields's district had been allowed to remain. We would be pretty much guaranteed two Louisiana districts.  
[ Parent ]
Redistricting Louisiana | 45 comments

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