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SSP Daily Digest: 11/2

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 1:14 PM EDT


Poll Closing Times: In case you haven't seen it already, check out our handy map of poll closing times and key races across the country. Also, we'll be accepting entries in our predictions contest until 6pm Eastern. Reach for that golden chocolate babka!

Weather: Forecasts today call for plagues of locusts in Arizona, frogs falling from the sky in Illinois, periodic blood showers in Pennsylvania, hellfire and brimstone in Ohio. Partly sunny in California.

AK-Sen: The rumor mill over the last few days has had the NRSC turning its attentions back to Lisa Murkowski, whom they'd once shunned, seeing her as their best plan for holding Alaska as Joe Miller seems to lag. (Of course, they may have semi-consciously been doing that for weeks, running ads hitting Scott McAdams instead of hitting Murkowski.) Miller, for his part, is dismissive, saying he didn't need them to win the primary.

DC Dems are finally showing some interest here... maybe it was a conscious decision to avoid the taint of Washington in this race, or more likely it was just being blind to the possibility of a pickup here until the last moment. Bill Clinton is robocalling on McAdams' behalf, and the DSCC finally rolled out a TV ad here over the weekend (anti-Murkowski, not anti-Miller). Here's what's probably motivated them: the final Hays Research poll, this time on behalf of the DSCC (instead of the IBEW like the last ones). Its results: Miller 27, McAdams 26, "another candidate you have to write in" 25, and undecided 21. That's close. With the specter of analyzing tens of thousands of write-in ballots for intent, and the attendant legal challenges, it will almost assuredly be weeks before we have a winner in Alaska. UPDATE: Just got late word of yet another poll here, from yet another local pollster: Dittman. I don't know who, if anyone Dittman is working for, but they're pretty Murkowski-friendly results: Murko 37, Miller 26, McAdams 22.

DE-Sen: Despite having essentially no chance of winning, somehow Christine O'Donnell got more media coverage than any other candidate this cycle, according to a Pew study. (Thanks, Gawker!) Of course, it's hard not to, when she provides us with so much good material, as with her closing argument fail: she'd planned on 30-minute blocks of TV time on the local Fox affiliate and on public access, but somehow neither happened, owing to miscommunication and flat-out never getting around to purchasing the time on Fox. A remarkable end to a remarkable campaign.

PA-08: I imagine you'll be hearing a lot of stories today and in the following days about voter "suppression" (from the Dems) and "fraud" (from the GOP), but we're already getting a jump on it in the 8th: both sides are alleging irregularities in absentee ballots. 8,000 ballots have been sequestered at the Bucks County courthouse already, so assuming the margin is less than that, here's another one we can already expect to find its way into court.

And here are a few more straggler polls:

NC-Sen (PPP): Richard Burr (R-inc) 52%, Elaine Marshall (D) 40%

NH-Sen, NH-Gov (UNH): Kelly Ayotte (R) 54%, Paul Hodes (D) 36%; John Lynch (D-inc) 49%, John Stephen (R) 41%

ID-01 (Greg Smith): Walt Minnick (D-inc) 48%, Raul Labrador (R) 38%

Fox/Pulse:
CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Ken Buck (R) 50%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 46%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 44%, Dan Maes (R) 6%
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, LeAlan Jones (G) 6%; Bill Brady (R) 44%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 38%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 48%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 44%

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/2
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I work in suburban Philly
The blood showers amde the morning commute interesting...

O'Donnell
Yes, how stupid of O'Donnell to have somehow managed not to pay for her final infomercial, instead letting the media talk about her for free. Now she'll just have to take the money she would've paid and instead use it for living expenses as she's traditionally used campaign donations.

Yeah, seriously....
Public Access? She couldn't afford to put it on real TV? Didn't she get $3 million in contributions?  I guess that will buy a pretty nice place to live in.  What a joke.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully you are all hoping she just misses beating Coons
I'd love for a 53-47 Coons win.  let's give her the feeling that running again in 2012 would give her a chance.  Carper-O'Donnel would guarantee us a Carper hold.  Not that he's liekly to lose to most candidates, but I couldn't turn down another O'Donnel campaign.

[ Parent ]
Carper
Is there anyone on the GOP bench who could take on Carper?  Where is Pierre DuPont V; is he at all interested, or do we have to wait for VI? (I was a volunteer on the presidential campaign of DuPont IV back in '88.)  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Castle
He is about the only one of note I have ever heard of. Although if I remember correctly, the Delaware House was controlled by Republicans only a few short years ago. It is now controlled my Democrats, of course, but that means there are at least a former state representatives that may want to get back into the political ring.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
DuPont
Is even older than Castle.  

[ Parent ]
DuPont
DuPont IV is older, I meant his son, DuPont V.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Will Carper even run?
I thought the consensus around here was that he'll probably retire. I certainly hope so, anyway. I'd take Biden or Markell over him any day of the week

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Regardless, we want O'Donnell on the other side
Let's make her think she can win....

[ Parent ]
Your logic is correct
Though, I must say that, in practice, I don't think you're going to convince many DE Democrats to vote O'Donnell out of strategy lol

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
If Miller doesn't win in AK I'll be surprised.
The [R] after his name will be worth a 10% bump over his current polling number. He'll probably be in the low 40's when it's all said and done.  

LOL really???
You do know you don't need to post the same commentary in every thread.  I think we all get it, you think Miller will win, write-in candidacies are near impossible and so on.  

Repetition isn't needed, we get it.


[ Parent ]
Huffington Reports High Turnout in Urban Areas
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Silly article really
I mean high turnout in NYC isn't going to help anyone in danger.  The Chicago view would be nice but seemed to be a throw-away item at the end of the article.

Had they had some solid data/evidence or something from Philly/Cleveland/Chicago or Dem college towns in swingstates and so on I'd be much more enthused.  

Hearing Rangel's district have high turnout doesn't exactly excite me (why is he still getting elected?)


[ Parent ]
How is it sillier than
any other anecdotal turnout data?  They were quoting local officials on local turnout in certain areas.

Your "silly" characterization is, I'm afraid, somewhat silly.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
No it isn't
Like I said, any sort of hard number comparison is preferable.  

But to say turnout in urban areas is high and then cite only a sinlge urban area is pretty misleading.  Even if true, its only NYC they cited with any detail.  

"Turnout high in certain parts of NYC" is a far more apprpriate article name for a national blog.


[ Parent ]
It wasn't just NYC they were talking about
The article also cited anecdotal accounts from Erie, Cleveland, and Louisville.

Read the whole thing.

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
Yeah
the fact that they didn't have locked down numbers in every location doesn't make it "silly," it makes it anecdotal.  I'll throw it in with all the other anecdotal evidence, no more no less.  Not "silly" though.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the offer of babka.
But I'll decline entering the contest.

Specifically because it'd cause me to have to make a prediction about Alaska.  And I just don't feel comfortable predicting a race in which I, to some extent, have invested some emotion in.

I'll also not pay attention to any liveblogging of the races, or any reports about them, tonight.  Unless I'm going to the local Dems' watch party, but that seems unlikely at this point.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


I kind of want to save it all for tomorrow
as I have to get up at 5:00am tomorrow for work  :(  Why stay up late to be pissed off when I can pour myself over it all tomorrow in more detail than just checking the dead list.

[ Parent ]
One final note
Everyone's expecting us to lose some 50-70 seats.

Don't despair.  Every seat we hold, among these, is a net gain.

And at the very least, we end the cycle with significantly thicker bench in Alaska.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


59 seat win would be a 20 seat majority...
That's pretty small to try and drive a hard line and keep the caucus unified.  They'd be adding 59 new Representatives who are coming from districts that elected Democrats in 2008, and will be running in the same district with in 2012, another Presidential year.

Not to mention the Bachmann teabagger caucus could really cause trouble for Boehner and other party leadership, not to mention the rank and file.    


[ Parent ]
Heh...
The GOP had a 5 seat majority in 2000... seemed to do just fine getting whatever they wanted.

They had a 15 seat majority after 2006... still impeached the president.


[ Parent ]
After 1996, I mean....
...not 2006... we had a 15 seat majority after 2006...

[ Parent ]
all correct except...
They most likely won't be running in exactly the same district in 2012, some may be running in a drastically different district.

[ Parent ]
Excellent point
This would cause untold headaches for a Speaker Boehner, who would have to deal with some of these people who actually expect to act on the wacky shit they campaigned on!

[ Parent ]
Alaska
Don Young has to retire some time doesn't he?

[ Parent ]
My one hope
is that we still end up better off than after the 2004 elections.  2006 and 2008 would be a bit more meaningful that way.

[ Parent ]
For some God-unknown reason
I think Strickland is going to win. I really don't know why...everyone has pretty much wrote him off, but I get this feeling he's going to pull it out tonight.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

I hope he does.
He's key for Obama in 2012.  It's one of my three races I want, even if otherwise it's a bloodbath for the Dems.  

Strickland, Sink and Perriello.  Sink, because she'll make Florida much easier for Obama in 2012 and Perriello because I like the cat.  


[ Parent ]
being governor of a state
means nothing for a presidential race. I don't even know where that idea comes from. A Sink win wouldn't make an Obama win in 2012 easier; a good economy would.

The idea that Kasich or Scott could prevent an Obama victory is untrue. Name one incident where the governor changed an election result. (Jeb Bush doesn't count, because that was a very odd circumstance).


[ Parent ]
How could such a thing be proven or disproven?
I mean, at the end of the day, its better to have someone in power who can at least have a GOTV effort as a starting point.  I can't really see someone (especially a Dem) winning in OH or FL without a very good GOTV setup.

Conversely, having a popular governor in a swingstate from the opposing party of Obama could easily sway voters to be more Republican.  I don't think that's really that much of a leap.  


[ Parent ]
that is much of a leap
Obama won many states with popular Republican governors. California, Hawaii, Indiana, Florida, Vermont, Connecticut.

[ Parent ]
"Could easily sway"...
...doesn't mean "will determine with 100% certainty".  To think that the popularity of a Republican governor will have no impact on a presidential election kind of says that all politics is 100% local all of the time, which it isn't.

[ Parent ]
Crist kept polling stations open longer...
Scott is a criminal, Kasich is a Fox favorite.  I didn't say it would prevent a victory, but it would make it harder.  And we know the games Ohio GOP is willing to play. Big swing states with friendly Governors, who should be more popular as the economy starts to rebound is beneficial.  

Brown and Nelson will be up in 2012, so Obama couldn't lean on them as they'd have their own races to worry about.    


[ Parent ]
Re: "Name one incident where the governor changed an election result."
That's kind of setting the bar a bit high - how often are Presidential elections so close that one or the other single factor can be said to have changed the result?

I would guess that a swing state Governor can in general do enough to make a President's run just that little more or less difficult. For example because, in some states (including Florida), they get to appoint the Secretary of State -- and  you can do a fair bit of harm, in terms of voter suppression, in that position, if memory serves me well on the example of Ken Blackwell doing so in Ohio in '04.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


[ Parent ]
yeah, I dont get why having Strickland matters at all
The only time governors seem to matter is during the primary when they can endorse.  If you cant the Gov. to your rally, then get Ben Affleck.  Bring Oprah with you.

[ Parent ]
Coting turnout lighter than 2006 in Cuyahoga County...
Expect to be 20,000 short of 2006 totals, which isn't good since the numbers look up for the rest of the state.

[ Parent ]
Well by my math there are 76,000 fewer registered voters in Cuyahoga than 4 years ago......
The 2006 results show 1,054,670 registered voters in the county.  And 454,572 voted in the Governor's race.

A story I found from early this afternoon said there are only 978,268 registered voters in the county now, which, as I said in my subject line, is down 76K from 4 years ago.  The same story says election officials estimate total county turnout of 430K, down 24K from 4 years ago if everyone votes for Governor, which of course they won't, so most likely OH-Gov turnout in the county will be down a little more, maybe 25K.

That actually is a comparable turnout rate from 4 years ago, not a drop.  It's estimated to be 44% of registered voters this time, compared to 43% in 2006.  So the participation rate is actually up, not down.

The question is what happened to the 76K county voters from 4 years ago?  Why the drop?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Follow-up: found better 2006 numbers......
The Cuyahoga 2006 turnout was 469,930, meaning quite a large 15K voters didn't vote in the Governor's race.  The turnout was 44.56% of registered voters in the county.

The same turnout rate now in the county would produce 435,917 votes, just under 6K more than the election officials' estimates, and given that their estimate is JUST an estimate, their estimate easily could be off by 6K votes.

Of course, the total votes could be 6K lower than their estimate instead of higher!

But the point is turnout is about the same as 4 years ago, but there are fewer voters in the county.

In other words, stop panicking.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
purge
Maybe they purged their rolls of people who had moved or died. Cleveland's economy isn't very good, but there's no way in hell they lost 7% of their population in the space of 4 years.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Estimate has fallen to 410,000... so, it will be still less..
But, that estimate can be off since Dems do tend to vote late if in person.  Thanks for the reality check, though.  Leave it to the plain deal to spew GOP propoganda.

Where did the voters go?  I don't know.  The economy went bad, so they got foreclosed on and left town.  Cleveland was at the heart of the foreclosure crisis.  


[ Parent ]
26 states being exit polled.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Key omissions (in order of my disappointment):

1. Alaska
2. Minnesota
3. Massachusetts
4. Rhode Island
5. Georgia
6. North Carolina
7. New Mexico
8. Maryland
9. Maine
10. Michigan

 

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


#2
I think they omitted Minnesota because of the consistent low-mid single digit leads for Dayton. That is foolish, because in 2006, Hatch lead Pawlenty in ALL polling in the last few weeks before the election. Also, Ras and S-USA had their final polls with Coleman beating Franken by a few points in their last polls in 2008. I can't imagine Minnesota is all that hard to poll, but it seems like the pollsters always fail here.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
but there was that blow up right at the end
that maybe the final polls didnt catch.

[ Parent ]
LOL at
"in order of my disappointment"

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
What can I say?
I'm just crushed.  My hopes even more election data dashed and stomped on.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I'm going to do something crazy right now...
I'm going to predict Cutler and LePage run quite close in the final tally up in Maine.

I'll probably be proven wrong within, oh, hours. But that race hasn't been surveyed since that big Angus King endorsement on Sunday and the narrative shift accompanying Mitchell's well publicizing polling slide last week.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Holy crap!
I could have saved some time compiling my guide for tonight's events had I known of Google's latest creation of awesomeness:

Google Maps: 2010 U.S. Election Ratings

Wanna know at one glance, for any House, Senate or Governor race, how Cook, Sabato, Rothenberg, CQ Politics and RealClearPolitics are rating the chances? Go there.


38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU


Neat
Was there something wrong with the map or just my comp.  Looked like Rothenberg and Sabato came up all red everywhere for PA when I clicked on them for the House.  I don't think anyone is that pessimistic for Dems.

Probably my comp acting up.


[ Parent ]
Ah, no, how embarassing, you're quite right
I was so enthused about the whole set up I posted before trying out all the maps. Yes, the Rothenberg and Sabato ones colour the whole country red. Bit much.

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Coons concerned about New Castle, Kent turnout
He has been ahead by double digits
in every poll. By that point, turnout isn't a problem.

[ Parent ]
I bet that it's a tractic
He is trying to scare the Democratic votes to get to the poll by telling them not to rest on their laurels.  

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Worried
Honestly, I'm still going to worry about this race until the votes are announced.  I really hope the polls are right in this race.

[ Parent ]
Me too.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I would be too
Never can feel too sure when there is a witch involved

[ Parent ]
PPP attacks hard Obama
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

In this post PPP shows clearly their point about Obama.

"Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Obama a big drag
...
There's a lot of good Democrats tonight- both incumbents and challengers- who are going to lose and it won't be because of anything they did wrong.
..."

This is not right. Many democratic candidates, many, are a lot more unpopular than Obama. And this if we believe PPP's numbers.

Well, I think they find tell this, just now, since many months. Then, it is not a surprise for me. But still, hard read this.

PPP a big lack of loyalty.  


What's the point?


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
yeah
You could say some "good" Republicans lost in '06/'08 beacuse of Bush.  Chafee, G. Smith, Shays, Simmons, and many more lost because of Bush.  It's the way it works, nothing new because of Obama.  

[ Parent ]
Their point is in the tittle

I bold emphasize it.

big drag?


[ Parent ]
Obama
Obama in drag?  That would be interesting.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
CT-5
Nate at fivethirtyeight has his final House projection up. The Merriman River Group poll sent CT-5 from 25% to 60% chance of takeover.  

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...


Last Minute Poll - FL-Gov
I don't think this got posted anywhere.  Not even sure why it was released, seems kind of pointless.

Scott   49(46)
Sink    45(49)

http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

It shows Scott with a net favorable rating (46/45) which I find hard to believe.  Sink is at 42/49 which I could believe, but it also shows a tie in the early voting.  So this doesn't change much for me.  I still think Scott has a small edge, but won't be shocked if Sink pulls it out.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22


I saw that.
The time frame on this poll actually overlapped with the first poll, so this is a 7-point shift in just a few days, with nothing organic to explain it.  Somebody (conservative Sunshine State News) didn't like the first poll.  And yes, positive favorability for Scott is a red flag.  Wonder what it was in the first poll.  The article doesn't say.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Steve Lombardo tweet re: O'Donnell's performance
He tweets that O'Donnell looks poised to over-perform and garner 45-47%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Appears to be a turnout issue...
New Castle County Democrats assumed it was in the bag and held off on voting. It'll probably pick up in 30-45 minutes, but it makes me slightly nervous about the House seat.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
That's dangerously close to 50%
I wonder how many folks didn't vote because it was in the bag, while others voted O'Donnell for the shits and giggles of it.  


[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Blumenthal turnout problems?
Sounds like Scare Out the Vote
on Blumenthal's part. His polling lead is close to double digits, I highly doubt there is much risk of him losing.

(At least, that's what I'm telling myself every time a Dem campaign talks about dangerously low turnout, that it's just a tactic and not actually true. Hope I'm right...)

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL


[ Parent ]
Politico (link) reports the opposite......
They say Dems e-mail saying high turnout, beating targets, statewide in CT and PA.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]

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