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The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest

by: jeffmd

Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 1:17 AM EDT


As usual, SSP is offering our annual election prediction contest!

Winners, as always, get some delicious delicious Green's Babka, courtesy of Mr. NYC himself! To get the deliciousness though, you'll have to submit your predictions on these 9 races:

  • Governors Races: Connecticut, Ohio, and Oregon
  • Senate Races: Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin
  • House Races: FL-25, PA-07, and VA-11

Here, just pick the winner and margin of victory, feel free to go to as many significant figures as you'd like.

...but of course, things are never this easy. There are two curveballs here, where you'll have to say percentages for each of the candidates:

  • MN-Gov: Mark Dayton, Tom Emmer, and Tom Horner
  • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams, Joe Miller, and Lisa Murkowski

To be babka-eligible, enter your guesses into our online form. No reading comprehension = no babka!

You'll have to have created your SSP account before midnight EDT though. If you haven't, you can still register and submit an entry for bragging rights, and the option to get more babka in the future!

Also, feel free to share your predictions on these races (and any others!) in this thread, but be aware that people may be reading your predictions for inspiration!

Contest closes 6pm EDT today.

Why 6pm? Well, if you look at our handy little map, it's when first polls close!
jeffmd :: The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest
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The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest | 98 comments
I just returned from the future (next week specifically)
In addition to LA-02, DE-AL, HI-01, and IL-10; Democrats pick up FL-25.

AK-Sen will go as follows:

Murkowski 35, McAdams 34, Miller 26 (I'm just not willing to go on enough of a limb to predict a McAdams victory, but I still think he's set himself up well for an upset).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

I am in the future!
13 hours ahead of the East Coast, baby. I'll know the results of most of these races before it's even noon in any part of America. ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Doesn't that tecnically mean that you'll know stuff *later* than the rest of us?
After all, we'll know everything on Tuesday, but it'll be Wednesday where you are :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Sorry, I thought you heard
that those ahead of the East Coast get to find out the results starting Tuesday, 6 PM...local time! that's right, I'm going to know the results long before the votes are even done being cast! :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You bastard!
You're a witch! You and Christine O'Donnell need to go back to your coven or something! :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Ok, confession time...
I actually AM Christine O'Donnell! Had you guys fooled there pretending to be a college student and a Democrat. In reality, the only reason I'm in Japan is to stop masturbation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
LOL
You should get babka just for that comment!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No
No, you are not!  Since you are in Japan, I have a much more likely suspect as to who you are. :)

http://www.amazon.com/Yes-Im-W...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Shhhhhh


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Now it all makes sense
Yoko Ono created the persona of Christine O'Donnell to stop masturbation in the United States under the guise of witchcraft. It all makes sense!

And no, sadly I am not drunk while typing this :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Certainly
Certainly the thought of Yoko Ono makes me never want to masturbate again!

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I gotta say, I'm jealous.
Set the alarm early for Indiana at 7, call in sick to morning classes, and wait for Alaska to roll in at 2PM! You'll probably know every results except perhaps WA-Sen without losing an hour of sleep.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I don't even have to skip class
by complete coincidence, there is a Japanese national holiday tomorrow (something about some emperor's birthday or something, I dunno) so classes are canceled. Love how that works out! Yay for Japanese random holidays! and yeah, not having to stay up late is going to be great, but chances are around noon I'll still be so jittery that I won't feel like going out and getting lunch.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
11/3 is the birthday of Emperor Meiji
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E...

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Ah, thanks, then that makes sense
since he was pretty important, after all it was during his time as emperor that Japan modernized and adopted democracy, an SSPer's favorite political system. November 3 will be a day for Americans to have their elections and for Japanese to remember how they got theirs.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Oh, what the hell
Tomorrow is going to suck anyway, so why not make a prediction?

Governors Races:

Connecticut

Foley (R) by 4

Ohio

Kasich (R) by 4

Oregon

Kitzhaber (D) by 4

Senate Races:

Colorado

Buck (R) by 3

Nevada

Reid (D) by 1

Wisconsin

Feingold by 1000 votes or less than 0.5% (My shot in the dark for Ben Masel)

Curveballs:

MN-Gov: Mark Dayton 44, Tom Emmer 40, and Tom Horner 16

AK-Sen: Scott McAdams 20, Joe Miller 45, and Lisa Murkowski 35 (I'm counting on the Republicans to over perform here, as per recent experience)

This is mostly seat-of-the-pants speculation.

I hope you realize
That in order to be eligible, you have to use the online form linked above!
[ Parent ]
Yup, done

[ Parent ]
Shoot, House races:
House Races:

VA-11: Fimian by 0.6

PA-07: Meehan by 8

FL-25: Rivera by 5.


[ Parent ]
Bold Call
with Fimian. Here in NoVa we have been getting absolutely blasted with anti-Fimian and pro-Connolly ads. Probably 2-1 to pro-Fimian ads. I am a big believer in the GOP wave but I think Gerry hangs on by the skin of his teeth. Definitely could go either way though.
[ Parent ]
I'd do a lot for babka
Preparing to be completely humiliated here:

CT-Gov: Malloy 51, Foley 48
OH-Gov: Kasich 50, Strickland 49
OR-Gov: Kitzhaber 52, Dudley 47
CO-Sen: Bennet 50, Buck 49
NV-Sen: Reid 48, Angle 46
WI-Sen: Johnson 52, Feingold 46
FL-25: Garcia 50, Rivera 49
PA-07: Meehan 51, Lentz 49
VA-11: Connolly 52, Fimian 48
MN-Gov: Dayton 43, Emmer 41, Horner 14
AK-Sen: Murkowski 35, McAdams 32, Miller 31

Oh boy. Here we go.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Online form, people!
It makes life 1,000,000% easier for us -- and it's the only way your entry will be babka-eligible!
[ Parent ]
It's done
Just wanted to make my humiliation a matter of public record.

I don't think the waves of nausea are going to subside until the weekend.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Excellent
Thanks! Just wanted to make sure you were babka-eligible!
[ Parent ]
Not only do I not like babka,
but I hope not to win it tomorrow!  
[ Parent ]
Good Lord, man.
I realize you dislike the "dryness" of babka, but Green's is pretty rich -- even if it's been in your fridge for a while, just zap it in the microwave for 15 seconds and you've got yourself a mouth-watering, moist slice.
[ Parent ]
Believe me, if I win
I'm going to need something that rhymes with babka.  
[ Parent ]
Just did it...
So I guess I don't have to reveal all my predictions... ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Er, my AK-Sen predication was exactly the same...
But I just looked at the comments, after I submitted my predictions! Really!

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
There are only so many plausible combinations...


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
that McAdams must, and will, place ahead of Miller.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
Well
Submitted via form.  Not gonna say what my percentage picks are, but I'm predicting a GOP sweep of all those races.  Most uncertain about MN-Gov, though.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
Wow, that's optimism
For me babka>optimism. So I picked the Democrats where I felt is was appropriate.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Well
I could be wrong, but I'm feeling a big wave.  Plus, I find to win these sorts of things, you sort of have to go out on a limb because if you go with the conventional wisdom, a lot of other people will have the same picks.  I won't be disappointed if I'm wrong because I know I'm heavy on the optimism.
FWIW, I'm going to pick the GOP to gain the Senate, but NOT win WV (by picking up WA and CA, crazy, I know.)

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Historically, it's a good bet
but WV will flip before CA.  
[ Parent ]
Don't see how Fiorina possibly wins California anymore
I could see Rossi win (though I sincerely doubt he does) but I don't see how Boxer loses anymore (even the most optimistic polls for your side show Boxer ahead by 5).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Well
I'm assuming that the polls are a bit off in CA and Whitman's turnout operation makes up the difference.  I agree that it's a bit of a stretch.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
It's just as likely that polls are understating Democratic support
The state has a large Hispanic population, if polls understate that, then there's a chance that both Brown and Boxer do better than expected (and even if you're right, it's still really hard to overcome a 5-point deficit in a state like California, no matter how much Whitman dumps of her own money).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
also CA Democrats are working the turnout machine
  I was at it all weekend and this afternoon. Tomorrow some people will be starting at 6AM but I will drag my sorry ass into the DP/SFV headquarters by late morning after voting. Carly ain't happening and neither is Queen Meg. We might have a Democratic sweep of the statewide offices; I am concerned about Kamala Harris for Attorney General and David "Bowie" Jones for Insurance Commissioner but a good Democratic turnout will carry them to victory (that is our hope).

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Crossing my fingers.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I was doing some phone calls too
 Over the weekend in CA-06 for the Democratic ticket. I was mostly reminding people to vote and about half the people I talked to have already mailed in their ballots. I was also talking to all registered Democrats and the other half was planning on voting. I had to tell four people their polling locations though and one person thought election day was yesterday.

My school is conveinently a few blocks away from the county's Democratic headquarters so when I have a free period, I will be able to go and help.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Predictions
I've been a longtime lurker (around 6 months) but I joined just to do some predicting.  
Welcome to SSP!


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
There, entered.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I entered
and surprised myself by predicting D victories in most of the races except for WI-Sen, AK-Sen, and PA-07. I think Strickland can pull this out based on the strong early voting. I can't remember the exact percentages I entered, but I think Murkowski will make history in Alaska.
Garcia
Who thinks that he will win? It seems highly, highly unlikely to me. This area has such of an institutional GOP lean. I bet that GOTV operations for Rubio and Rivera are insane in FL-25. Remember when everyone thought Lincoln Diaz-Balart was going to be facing a really tough race in 2008 and he won with 58% of the vote?  
This is Mario's district
and Mario did have a tough race in 2008. (Didn't Lincoln's opponent have a mini-scandal at the end or something?)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I know. It just seems unlikely that Garcia could this off, in this awful of a year. Balart won with 53% of the vote to Garcia's 47% of the vote in 2008.  
[ Parent ]
Rivera is a flawed candidate and
doesn't have incumbency advantages. If you said he was favored I wouldn't argue but it's not hard to see how Garcia could possibly win.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The district has trended
Democratic pretty relentlessly.  They created a 60% R district from 2000 census numbers for Mario D-B and iirc he's performed right at the split every election.  IOW, he never got a Democratic vote.

These districts remind me of my Cuban-American friend's explanation of his dad (who came from Cuba).  His dad, he says, has never voter for anyone.  But every election he shows up at the polls and votes against the guys he despises most.  :-)

[ Parent ]
FL-25
The GOP candidate has not been very good whereas the Dem candidate has been - and the seat is trending Dem which is why the sissy Mario abandoned it to grab his brother's safer seat.  That said, I see the GOP winning it because of the year and Rubio being on the ballot, but he'd better do a good job or hope that he gets a few more GOP voters put in after redistricting.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Scott might sink it (no pun intended, honest)
It's kosher to vote-split in those top two races because Rubio seems like an honest guy and Scott seems like Crooky McCrookster. I think establishing that, in the special way only one of the most unpopular competitive candidates in the country possibly can, right at the top of the ballot really diminishes Rubio's coattails.

Doesn't help that Garcia isn't just another white dude.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Good Point
Does anyone have any idea as to how Scott is doing in the Cuban community? I'd expect him to underperform by quite a bit but does Sink have any appeal towards them?

I guess the other wild-card that could make FL-25 go for Garcia are the additions of two other third party candidacies, a Whig and a Tea Partier(?), which could pull votes from Rivera.  

[ Parent ]
Sink
Sink didn't campaign much in South Florida, which many there consider a mistake.  It's the Dem base, but she spent a lot of time in the I4 corridor which is the swing area.  I don't think that a large number of Cuban Americans, who will be out for Rubio will be all that tempted by Sink.  However, she is running a last minute radio ad that depicts a naturalized Hispanic-American being stopped by police and asked for his papers in an attempt to say Scott would bring about Arizona type laws.  Depends on if people buy it or not.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
I honestly do think so
I am 95% sure the Democrats will lose the house, but I am also basing that prediction with Democratic pickups in DE-AL, LA-2, IL-10, HI-1 AND FL-25. Even with those pickups, Republicans are going to win a net of about 45.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

[ Parent ]
The sunny optimist that I am
I predicted a Dem sweep of everything but WI-SEN.  Even put McAdams over the top.  Why not!
I submitted mine.
I am bearish on some races, and more bullish on others. I think I made pretty reasonable predictions, but who knows how it will turn out tomorrow.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

Mine.
CT-Gov
Malloy by 5.67%

OH-Gov
Strickland by 1%

OR-Gov
Kitzhaber by 1.67%

CO-SEN
Buck by 1%

NV-SEN
Reid by 0.67%

WI-SEN
Johnson by 7.67%

FL-25
Rivera by 3%

PA-07
Meehan by 3.83%

VA-11
Connolly by 15%

MN-GOV
Dayton (D) 40.33%, Emmer (R) 39%, Horner (IP) 20.67%

AK-Sen
McAdams (D) 35.67%, Miller (R) 35%, Murkowski (WI) 29.33%

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

And I entered mine in the form. Just want to show my results to everyone.


My blog
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Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
OK, I'll reveal a few of mine...
Since you showed all of yours...

NV-Sen: Reid +3.5% (Call me crazy, but what I've been seeing on the ground is mostly encouraging.)

CO-Sen: Bennet +0.5%  (This will be TIGHT, but I think Bennet's probable early vote advantage is what saves the day for CO Dems.)

WI-Sen: Johnson +4% (Feingold could have survived IMHO, especially if he figured out a smarter campaign strategy. It just sucks that the GOP caught him asleep.)

AK-Sen: Murkowski +3 over Miller, + 3.1% over McAdams (Again, call me crazy, but this may be one of those extremely rare instances a write-in campaign is successful. Lordy knows she's spent a ton of money to somehow make it work! And while someone as "tea party" as Miller can plausibly win in Alaska, I just suspect most folks care too much about their government to have Miller stomp it out of existence.)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I am still not quite sure
    what babka is and whether I want some, but it is clear that you don't want to give away any babka soon. AK Senate probably won't be decided until after Thanksgiving, so don't plan on eating babka this week unless you pay for it yourself.

   Is Babka just a New York thing? Can I get any in the Los Angeles area? Maybe I should just find a nice Armenian bakery in Glendale or East Hollywood and get some baklava. Mmmm good, baklava....

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

I bet Brent's Deli has it
I haven't been there since I started reading SSP, though.  It's at Parthenia and Corbin, in Northridge, and it puts Canter's to shame.

However, to impress me, this "babka" would have to be better than King's Hawaiian Bread, the baked goods pride of the South Bay.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, I might try that.
   Northridge isn't exactly next door (that would be Squirming Oaks or Stewed City), but it is not too far. I was in Northridge on Friday seeing both our U.S. Senators at CSUN for a GOTV rally. DiFi looked ancient, but gave a heartfelt introduction of Babs that showed her affection for her colleague and friend. I just hope she retires in 2012 but I expect that she will run for re-election in 2012 and I will vote for someone else in the primary. We have some great new leaders in CA waiting for opportunities to move up; I'd rather have Debra Bowen or John Chiang or Hilda Solis or somebody as Senator rather than Feinstein.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
All great choices
I'm partial to Bowen as she represented me in the Legislature for 16 years, but would be very happy with Chiang or Solis.  I'd rather not have Newsom or Villaraigosa, though, and I hear those names bandied about more than the others.
[ Parent ]
Agreed

California has changed a lot since the 70s/80s.  It's sort of remarkable, actually, that Boxer, Feinstein, and Brown could together hold the state's top offices now.

It hasn't been all graceful underneath, of course.  But it could be that the transition to the next generation is a lot more peaceful and decent than it has been in other places.

[ Parent ]
wiki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Interesting.
So maybe I should get babka along with some baklava if my predictions are the closest. In addition to the Armenian I got from my maternal grandfather, I got Russian Jewish ancestry from my maternal grandmother!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Being part-Armenian myself, I love baklava!
Unfortunately, I can't eat the traditional stuff anymore because I'm allergic to nuts! Fortunately there are some delicious nut-free recipes that I can learn to make, just like my maternal grandfather, the son of Armenian immigrants, did! (I never got to try his baklava though; he died years before I was born.)

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Predictions
CT-GOV- Malloy +1
OH-GOV-Kasich +2
OR-Gov- Kitzhaber +3

CO-SEN- Bennett +1
NV-SEN- Angle +3
WI-SEN- Johnson +7

FL25- Garcia +4
PA-07- Meehan +9
VA-11- Firmian +4

MNGOV- Dayton 44 Emmer 35- Horner 20
AKSEN- McAdams 27, Miller 35, Murkowski 37.

And yeah, I'll enter that into the online form too.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

For anyone that's awake and wants a reason to be optimistic
Check out the GOTV event staging areas:

http://my.barackobama.com/page...

Illinois is covered, hopefully they can put Alexi over the edge and save a few CD's here.

Arizona looks pretty well blanketed, which is nice to see.  South Carolina is also surprisingly covered.

Lest you think everywhere is equal, Wisconsin looks kind of abandoned.

House razor close, not that bad over all
Net Loss of 40 in the House. Stronger than expected performances in NY (loss of only 2) and CA (no losses), thanks to weak top of the ballot with Whitman and Paladino. Net loss of 5 in the Senate, Harry Reid pulls it out thanks to strong turnout among Latinos. Murkowski and McAdams go to court over disputed write-in ballots. Net loss of 5 Governor's mansions. Sink and Strickland squeak by.

In my own California, McNerney wins by 3. Props 20, 21, 22,  and 25 pass, while props 19, 23, 24, 26, and 27 fail. Meanwhile, Meg Whitman decides to buy an island in the south pacific so at least she can be Governor of something.

oh, if only...


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Here's My Take....
CT-Gov....Foley 50, Malloy 47
OH-Gov....Kasich 51, Strickland 47
OR-Gov....Dudley 49, Kitzhaber 48

CO-Sen....Buck 50, Bennet 46
NV-Sen....Angle 48, Reid 45, Others 7
WI-Sen....Johnson 53, Feingold 46

MN-Gov....Emmer 40, Dayton 38, Horner 18
AK-Sen....Murkowski 37, Miller 34, McAdams 27

Oh Real Smart....MIssed the House Races.....
FL-25...Rivera by 3
PA-07...Meehan by 6
VA-11...Fimian by 2
[ Parent ]
Who'da guessed.
All Republican wins.

What's your prediction for NY-16?  Barnburner?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Barnburner?
spiderdem, your saccharine optimism is getting on my nerves. It's well-established that Serrano loses as soon as the polls close. The fact you think it's going to be close is just a result of the Democratic echo chamber corrupting you.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ali Mohamed
would become the first Muslim Republican member of Congress.  Would they let him in the caucus?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Every single race

a republican win.  Huh-uh.  Right.  
[ Parent ]
That's How Wave Elections Usually Work....
....and it's gonna be that kind of year.
[ Parent ]
You've been predicting

returns that have defied the plain evidence of polling houses all this month.  You'll have to do better then that to justify your predictions.  
[ Parent ]
I said fuck it and voted for...
...all the Democrats to win except Feingold.

No guts, no glory.

Kinda like what I do in my NCAA Tournament bracket when Iowa State makes it...I always pick the 'Clones to make it at least one game further than I'm confident they will, since it would make me kick myself to pick us to lose a game we end up winning.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Poor Feingold
can't even get a "fuck it" vote of confidence.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Long lines at student registration tables...
is the report on the ground.  

I would have thrown a "fuck it" vote to Russ based on that.  

[ Parent ]
Wow! That's the spirit. Thanks, DC!
And jeez, you're more cheerful than I am this morning. You're making me want to knock doors with extra gusto! ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Mine as entered in the form.
CT-Gov - Foley by 8 (wind at his back)
OH-Gov - Kasich by 2
OR-Gov - Dudley by 1
CO-Sen - Buck by 0 (near tie)
NV-Sen - Angle by 5 (people underestimate how bad the economy is in NV)
WI-Sen - Feingold by 1 (on a night like this I need a miracle and let this be it!)

FL-25 - Rivera by 9 (Rubio for the save!)
PA-07 - Meehan by 12
VA-11 - Connolly by 3

MN-Gov - Dayton 42, Emmers 47, Horner 11
AK-Sen - McAdams 40, Miller 44, Murkowski 26

(A large amount of Murkowski supporters will walk into the polls NOT see her name on the ballot and just vote for one of the names they see rather than writing her name in.  A few will even write her name in for Governor or House Rep instead of Senate.  And then you'll have those who'll vote for Frank Murkowski instead of Lisa Murkowski.  In other words there is a reason why few write-in campaigns ever work.)

And finally I hope most of my predictions are wrong and the Democrats surprise us.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

Typod Murkoski's number. Meant 16. (nm)


NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Emmer has never

performed anywhere close to your predictions for MN-Gov.  
[ Parent ]
It made me sick
To pick Buck in CO-Sen.  Couldn't we have included NY-Gov or something just for optimism?
Tonight is all about facing the truth.
May as well attempt to start early!
[ Parent ]
Never!!!
I will continue my denial until the last vote is counted...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Well I "truth"fully do believe Cuomo will win
And it will be harder to predict the margisn there then in CO-SEN.  I mean CO-SEN y7ou have each guaranteed to get at leats 45%.  Cuomo could get 60% or 70% or 75%, who knows.

It could have been very fun to see how crazy we all are in races where we're actually favored.

[ Parent ]
I'll go on a limb and predict McAdams victory
McAdams-40%
Miller-37%
Murkowski-23%

I think it's asking way too much of americans to not only vote, but also to take a spelling test. I think most people will go to the polls and either forgo writing in her name or screw it up somehow (like right Lisa M. Lackey or something).

This result...
I would be sad for Alaskans and their writing-related apathy, but happy for my country, because moderates clearly care more about making it a better place than do rightists like Miller and Sen. M. Lackey.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
AK-Sen Tie Breaker...
Is that before or after the court challenging of the results?
My Predictions
Alaska Governor R
Alabama Governor R
Arkansas Governor D
Arizona Governor R
California Governor D
Colorado Governor D
Connecticut Governor D
Florida Governor R
Georgia Governor R
Hawaii Governor D
Iowa Governor R
Idaho Governor R
Illinois Governor R
Kansas Governor R
Massachusetts Governor D
Maryland Governor D
Maine Governor R
Michigan Governor R
Minnesota Governor D
Nebraska Governor R
New Hampshire Governor D
New Mexico Governor R
Nevada Governor R
New York Governor D
Ohio Governor R
Oklahoma Governor R
Oregon Governor D
Pennsylvania Governor R
Rhode Island Governor I
South Carolina Governor R
South Dakota Governor R
Tennessee Governor R
Texas Governor R
Utah Governor R
Vermont Governor D
Wisconsin Governor R
Wyoming Governor R

Alaska Senate I
Alabama Senate R
Arkansas Senate R
Arizona Senate R
California Senate D
Colorado Senate R
Connecticut Senate D
Delaware Senate D
Florida Senate R
Georgia Senate R
Hawaii Senate D
Iowa Senate R
Idaho Senate R
Illinois Senate R
Indiana Senate R
Kansas Senate R
Kentucky Senate R
Louisiana Senate R
Maryland Senate D
Missouri Senate R
North Carolina Senate R
North Dakota Senate R
New Hampshire Senate R
Nevada Senate D
New York Senate D
New York Senate D
Ohio Senate R
Oklahoma Senate R
Oregon Senate D
Pennsylvania Senate R
South Carolina Senate R
South Dakota Senate R
Utah Senate R
Vermont Senate D
Washington Senate D
Wisconsin Senate R
West Virginia Senate D

Republicans gain 41 House seats overall

AL-2 D
AL-5 R
AR-1 D
AR-2 R
AR-4 D
AZ-1 R
AZ-3 R
AZ-5 R
AZ-7 D
AZ-8 D
CA-11 D
CA-18 D
CA-20 D
CA-3 R
CA-45 R
CA-47 D
CO-3 R
CO-4 R
CO-7 D
CT-4 D
CT-5 D
DE-AL D
FL-12 R
FL-2 R
FL-22 R
FL-24 R
FL-25 R
FL-8 R
GA-12 D
GA-2 D
GA-8 R
HI-1 D
IA-1 D
IA-2 D
IA-3 D
ID-1 D
IL-10 D
IL-11 R
IL-14 D
IL-17 R
IL-8 D
IN-2 D
IN-8 R
IN-9 D
KS-3 R
KY-3 D
KY-6 D
LA-2 D
LA-3 R
MA-10 D
MA-4 D
MA-5 D
MA-6 D
MD-1 R
ME-1 D
ME-2 D
MI-1 R
MI-3 R
MI-7 D
MI-9 D
MN-1 D
MN-6 R
MN-8 D
MO-3 D
MO-4 D
MS-1 R
MS-4 D
NC-11 D
NC-2 D
NC-4 D
NC-7 D
NC-8 D
ND-AL R
NE-2 R
NH-1 R
NH-2 D
NJ-12 D
NJ-3 R
NJ-6 D
NM-1 R
NM-2 R
NM-3 D
NV-3 R
NY-1 D
NY-13 D
NY-19 R
NY-20 D
NY-22 D
NY-23 D
NY-24 D
NY-25 D
NY-29 R
NY-4 D
OH-1 R
OH-10 D
OH-12 R
OH-13 D
OH-15 R
OH-16 R
OH-18 D
OH-6 D
OR-1 D
OR-4 D
OR-5 D
PA-10 R
PA-11 R
PA-12 D
PA-15 R
PA-17 D
PA-3 R
PA-4 D
PA-6 R
PA-7 R
PA-8 R
RI-1 D
SC-5 R
SD-AL R
TN-4 R
TN-5 D
TN-6 R
TN-8 R
TX-17 R
TX-23 D
TX-25 D
TX-27 D
UT-2 D
VA-11 D
VA-2 R
VA-5 R
VA-9 D
WA-2 D
WA-3 R
WA-8 R
WA-9 D
WI-3 D
WI-7 R
WI-8 R
WV-1 D
WV-3 D

Here we go
CT-GOV: Foley 48 Malloy 52
OH-GOV: Strickland 49  Kasich 51
OR-GOV: Kitzhaber 50 Dudley 45

CO-SEN: Bennet 51  Buck 49
NV-SEN: Reid 46  Angle 43 Ashjian 3  NOTA: 8
WI-SEN: Johnson 51 Feingold 48

FL-25: Garcia 51, Rivera 45 Others 4
PA-07: Meehan 53 Lentz 47
VA-11: Connolly 54 Fimian 46

MN-GOV: Dayton 46 Emmer 41 Horner 13
AK-GOV: Miller 34 McAdams 36 Murkowski 30

Net House Loss -35
Net Senate Loss 4 (ND, AR, WI, -IN +AK)  We also lose NH, NC, and OH, MO, LA, etc. but they're GOP seats to start with.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

Hail Mary
CT-Gov: Foley 50 Malloy 48
OH-Gov: Strickland 49, Kasich
OR-Gov: Kitzhaber 51, Dudley 48
CO-Sen: Buck 51, Bennet 48
NV-Sen: Reid 48, Angle 47
WI-Sen: Johnson 52, Feingold 46
FL-25: Garcia 50, Rivera 49
PA-07: Meehan 53, Lentz 47
VA-11: Connolly 53, Fimian 46
MN-Gov: Dayton 44, Emmer 40, Horner 14
AK-Sen: Miller 35, Murkowski 33, McAdams 29

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
I
submitted my form but I'm not making my predicts public yet. I covet babka and will not have my winning predicts stolen.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest | 98 comments

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