Tony Avella! Tony Avella!

I volunteered for a few days earlier this summer in Bayside. He's a solid candidate running against a ridiculously conservative state senator who has been in office since the mid 70s(!) and is wayyyy too conservative for a district that went 63% for Obama.

A great pickup opportunity in NYC. I highly recommend it.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 00:53:01 AM UTC

Should also mention

that's he's very much part of the Republican problem up in Albany. Just saying.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

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by: nycyoungin @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 00:53:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

This was one of the closest NY Senate campaigns in 2008.  Thank you for the suggestion.

All Politics is local - visit DLCC.org

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by: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 15:52:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alright, Texas Time

Offense: 105, Loretta Haldenwang, Irving (Dallas County)
While I am happy to see 113 on the list already, this is THE district that democrats have a chance of winning. This district was lost by 19 votes with a  candidate who was little more than a name on the ballot in 2008. Haldenwang has been aggressive and is hitting incumbent Republican Linda HarperBrown on corruption issues (even though there is also plenty to go after regarding scape-goading brown people). Best thing is the bumper stickers she has that says "My lawyers tell me my other is car is technically not a bribe" at lindaharperbenz.com
-Obama 51.5% (21,852), McCain 47.4% (20,097)
-http://voteloretta.com/Default.aspx

Defense for the Past: 1, Stephen Frost, Texarkana (Bowie, Cass, Marion, and Morris Counties)
Rural counties are dying as opportunities for democrats. Stephen Frost is one of five rural dems left in Texas (The others are McReynolds12, Heflin-85, Homer-3, and the retiring Farabee-69). While Farabee's open seat is gone for the dems these other four will be contested. There has been polling by both Frosts's campaign and his opponent. Frost says he's ahead by 20%+, his opponent is claiming a 4% lead. Word is Frost's poll was a push poll. Frost was re-elected by 8% in 2008.
-Obama 31.8% (17,990), McCain 67.5% (38,139)

Defense for the Future: 52, Diana Maldonado, Round Rock (Williamson County)
Meanwhile, the suburbs is the future for Texas Democrats. Maldonado has a leaked poll saying she's ahead 50%42%. I don't buy it, this one has to be closer. This, north of Austin district encompasses much of what the future statewide electorate will be. WInning and maintaining this district will help set a template for how to win in Texas' future. I considered Maldonado to be one of three MUST WIN races in 2008 (the other two were Joe Moody of El Paso and Carol Kent of Dallas) the only difference was she was the only one not to win by a huge margin, or even over 50% (won with 48.6%), even though she was running for an open seat.
-Obama 48.5% (36,419), McCain 49.5% (37,154)
-http://www.dianamaldonado.com/

Texas Tribune has a nice round up of races this cycle in Texas, here's the breakdown: "Likely" flipping 4 D, 1 R; On the bubble 4 D, 1 R; and Upset possible 6 D, 5 R.  

http://www.texastribune.org/te...

I maintain on Texas, If we democrats finish with 70 seats or greater, we did REALLY well.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 01:50:24 AM UTC

Cannot see how ya'll missed TX H-102, TX H-107

both knife's edge democratic take-overs in '08 and '06 respectively. Kent and Vaught rode a blue wave to victory in tough districts and have to hold it against a counter-wave. Both are forceful, popular incumbents and good fits for the districts. Kent has drawn a very energetic challenger (canvassing forcefully, accusing Kent of unethical practices, and building momentum in the yard-sign war).
TX House is within a couple of seats either way and, most importantly, has 32 seats (plus some likely new ones) that could be affected by redistricting. 32 is a huge number.

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by: Jolpaj @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 23:40:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And if you dont think you can draw a lot of seats in either direction in TX

why dont you ask Martin Frost, Charlie Stenholm, Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Chris Bell, and a little ball-room dancer named Tom Delay

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by: Jolpaj @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 00:02:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I skipped Kent and Vaught for a Reason

I have faith in the Dallas coordinated campaign. It seems to have been underestimated in 2006 and 2008 (and even 2004). If Bush can only manage 51% in Dallas county in 2004,something tells me the GOP will have a hard time building momentum here. Stafani impresses me as weird and Vaught seems secure. Kent knocked out a, what 30?, year incumbent in 2008 with close to 53%, so she should be okay.  Miklos is the one I am worried about in Dallas, but I think 105 and maybe 113 can cancel that out.

That and reapportionment should help Dallas a bit, I sense they may gain a state house seat or two (Denton is on pace to go up to four from three).

I'm wondering about Tarrant though, Chris Turner should be secure, but reports are Zedler is doing well. We'll see.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 16:26:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TN House-77 and TN Senate -27 Senate

State Representative Judy Barker in TN House 77 is a critical seat to hold, as it was John Tanner's old seat before he ran for Congress, but unfortunately is now a highly contested seat for a second cycle in a row. She is favored to win, but it's a seat that would be indicative of how good, or bad, a year TN Democrats have in the House. She is a intelligent, compassionate, and dedicated public servant, or in other words somebody who deserves to get re-elected for all the right reasons beyond pure politics.

On the Senate side, Lowe Finney in District 27, is a critical swing District. Finney is a young and dynamic candidate, the sort of candidate who will be essential in rebuilding and re-branding the TNDP. He represents a urban/rural district centered around Jackson that is at the heart of the 8th Congressional District; and holding this seat will be vital to keeping any sort viable minority in the Senate.

Democrat: TN-8

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by: wtndem @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 02:01:56 AM UTC

wow

this may be one of the few times a candidate, or political arm has reached out to the SSP community with a diary and have done it correctly.  kudos.  also shea porter!

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 02:21:11 AM UTC

This is for the DLCC, not the DCCC. n/t.

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 13:58:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

they're still a political arm

even if we dont hear their name in the Digest every day.  ;)  Hell, they're probably the least known political arm and thus, are more deserving of our geektacular support.

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by: Andrew @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 21:37:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree!

The DLCC is really really important. If you are going to make a donation to a political arm. I would say this is the most important one. Federal politics is won at a local level.  

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by: Ectoras @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 14:57:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ken Storck, SD-13

He's a longtime Deputy District Attorney in Weld County, Colorado. He's really one hell of a guy, and Scott Renfroe, the Republican incumbent he's running against, is a wingnut with a history of making incendiary remarks.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 02:29:14 AM UTC

Dr. Beth Jones, NC Senate 44

The incumbent GOP member is retiring and Dr. Beth, a local veterinarian, is making a strong pitch for this two-county seat in Western NC.  It's a Republican seat by nature but one of the few places where Democrats are playing offense.  We're likely to lose the NC Legislature this year (I might make a diary about that if I'm not lazy) but she would be a great addition to next year's General Assembly.  She's been raising money and doing lots of canvassing and making calls.  The district is R+9, but don't be mislead, there are tons of local Democrats in both Burke and Caldwell Counties.

www.bethjonesforsenate.com

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

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by: app state @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 02:42:47 AM UTC

The Silver State's Golden Opportunities

Let me break down what's on the line for us here in Nevada...

Senate:

District 8 (Summerlin)
Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske (R)
atdleft's Impartial Ranking: Tossup

Cegavske must be thanking her lucky stars that she's running this year instead of 2008. Next door in District 6, long time GOP stalwart Bob Beers famously lost to political neophyte/local business owner Alison Copening over his polarizing hard-core conservatism and not realizing Obama's campaign drove Nevada Democrats into overdrive. But even though 2010 may not be as scary of a cycle for Republicans this year, Cegavske still must deal with her own polarizing hard-core conservatism in a district where Democrats have a slight 0.9% registration edge. And Democrats got an all star recruit of a candidate with legal maven Tammy Peterson. And with Harry Reid and Dina Titus both counting on the party to pump up Democratic turnout for them, th GOP can't count on an "enthusiasm gap" to save Cegavske (but maybe a "voting gap" if some Dems undervote).

District 9 (Summerlin/Mountain's Edge/Southern Highlands/Primm)
Open (R) Seat
atdleft's Impartial Ranking: Tossup

This is probably the Democrats' best chance of a Senate pickup this year. Incumbent moderate Republican Dennis Nolan was "tea partied" out by a primary challenge by super neophyte 27 year old no-name secretary "office manager" and teabagger darling Elizabeth Halseth. So all of a sudden, what had been a likely GOP hold is now fully in play and a young newcomer by the name of Benny Yerushalmi all of a sudden has a great chance at joining "The Gang of 63". This will definitely be a hard fought race until the very end, but Benny does have the advantage of a 2.4% Dem registration edge and a strong Dem field operation.

District 12 (Mesquite/Henderson/Boulder City/Laughlin)
Open (R) Seat
atdleft's Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

This is without a doubt the most stretched district, bordering Arizona all the way from Mesquite to Laughlin! And there are plenty of rural areas here that strongly favor Republicans, so Assembly Member Joe "Doc" Hardy (R-Boulder City) has a natural advantage here. However this district also contains many Vegas suburbs, from Henderson's fringes to North Las Vegas' Aliante master planned community, so all in all the GOP only has a slight 1.2% registration edge here AND Obama carried this district in 2008. Plus, Democrats recruited a top-notch legal eagle Aaron Ford to run here. Still, Ford has to deal with Hardy's entrenched status in Boulder City and the rurals' seething hatred of all things Reid and Titus. But if the Dem Machine can whip out enough Reid & Titus voters in this district to keep voting down the ballot, Ford may have a chance.

District 5 (Henderson/Silverado Ranch)
Incumbent: Joyce Woodhouse (D)
atdleft's Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

This is the one Senate race where Democrats have to play defense. The Republicans are pouring money into attacking Woodhouse as a "loony liberal" in this closely divided suburban district (Dems have about a 1.3% registration advantage) and promoting slick lawyer Michael Roberson. One would think Joyce would be a goner in this type of environment, but she has a few trump cards to play here. Dems have a far better field operation than the GOP, Joyce has a good reputation as a "grassroots person" and a long time teacher, and Roberson has what may be the ugliest skeleton to hide in the closet this campaign cycle (he's worked on kicking homeowners out of foreclosed homes). This won't be easy, but Woodhouse most certainly has a path to victory here.

Perhaps this is a sneak preview of more to come... ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 03:41:22 AM UTC

That's a very good chamber diagnosis

We would just add that there were - to put it delicately - complicating factors in the last few days of the SD-9 GOP primary. 

And SD-5 was included in the first wave of Essential Races, for some of the same reasons you mention.  Retaining that district would almost guarantee that Senate Democrats would retain their 12-9 majority, and it would allow them to push for a 2/3 majority by gaining two other seats.

We'd certainly look forward to reading more Nevada analysis here.

All Politics is local - visit DLCC.org

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by: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 14:50:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I nominate Matt Patten

Staying close to home, Patten is my state representative, from Ohio's 18th house district.  This is a race that is going to be extremely close and could very well determine whether the Ohio House flips to the GOP or not.  

Patten is a cordial, likeable guy that has voted for some key democratic agenda items, such as education funding, restructuring of the state tax code (to be more straightforward and progressive in nature), and supporting infrastructure programs.  He has done some really positive things here in my hometown of Strongsville as well, and does a good job of connecting with people right here in the "Crossroads of the Nation".  

This is one race that in addition to all the national contests, that I will be watching very closely on election night.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 04:12:14 AM UTC

WV House of Delegates Race 55

In WV a big question for the future is the politics of the Eastern Panhandle, the part of the state that's been growing by leaps and bounds. Can Democrats take advantage of changing demographics in this area? District 55 could give us a sense of that. Veteran right-wing Republican John Overington is being challenged by a really appealing candidate, Donn Marshall. If Marshall unseats Overington in the fastest growing part of the state, that would be a great sign that the gloom and doom some Democrats espouse when they talk about the future of WV politics is misplaced. And beyond that Marshall would be a vast improvement over the area's current representation, and an appealing voice for the party.

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by: armand @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 14:44:49 PM UTC

Kansas 91st!

I did a thorough review of every state house seat in the state, which you can find here: Seats 1-40, Seats 41-80, Seats 81-125.

If there is just one in the entire state to which I could direct help, it would KS-91 and the campaign of Dan Manning. Not only would the Kansas Lege get a smart, young, Mandarin-speaking military vet/West Point grad replacing a homophobic, hard-right ultraconservative, but it would get its first openly-gay legislator. Plus, the 91st district, in suburban Wichita, closely mirrors the state's partisan composition (though it's actually a point or two more Democratic than the state as a whole), and thus swingy and totally, totally winnable. Manning's also managed to mobilize tons of volunteers--even getting a dozen teenagers from the Dodge City High Gay-Straight Alliance to drive 3 hours (each way!) to help him canvass in Wichita. I bet you don't see that a lot for state house races.

Plus, the dude got an actual death threat taped to the door of his home. I'm guessing you don't know see that a lot, either, and it's pretty unprecedented in Kansas. But the best part was his response, which was basically: thanks for the motivation to work even harder to win. So the guy's got balls of steel. And if there's one thing I think we can all agree that the entire Democratic Party needs more of, it's candidates with balls of steel...you know, like Hillary Clinton.

And if we can't win this type of suburban swing district with a strong candidate over a hard-right conservative, then the Democrats might as well concede the entire state. And I know you're looking at redistricting, too: If we knock out enough conservatives, even if Brownback wins the governor's seat, he won't be able to push through a redistricting plan over his own party's moderates, since they have an interest in not making seats too conservative.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 17:52:27 PM UTC

Indiana State Senate District 31

Since everyone is talking about favorite local races, I'll add one of my own -- Indiana State Senate District 31.  This is a rare opportunity for us to go on the offensive Indiana, and while we're the underdog in this race, it is very winnable.

The district is an urban/suburban one, comprising Lawrence and much of the east side of Indianapolis.  The 20 year Republican incumbent is Jim Merritt.  He's about as "generic R" as they come (i.e. by Indiana Republican standards, he's not a complete lunatic), which means he'll be difficult to beat in a bad year for us.  But, it's a competitive race for a couple of reasons.  First, the district has changed.  It's become more urban, Lawrence in paricular has had a lot of middle-class African Americans move in, and just in general has moved in a Democratic direction.

The other reason it's a competitive race is our candidate -- Marion County/Indianapolis Sheriff Frank Anderson.  He's the first Democratic sheriff we've had here in a long time, and the first African American ever.  It actually is a step down in many respects for him to run for the State Senate, but he was term limited out of running  for sheriff again.  Despite some difficulties during his tenure (rising crime in parts of the county, a city/county merger of the police and sheriff's departments, etc), he remains personally quite popular.

Right now, the Indiana Senate is 33-17 Republican -- and most of the really nutty, wacky stuff in Indiana politics comes out of the Republican Senate Caucus -- so while we're not going to come close to taking the Senate back, at least this would be one more sane, reasoned, experienced voice in it.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 18:21:41 PM UTC

Great choice.

I think Chuck Freiberger from district 46 is worth it as well. He is running to replace the retiring Connie Snipes. He is a great guy and his opponent is a world class dick. This is a swingy area and Chuck is a great candidate who deserves support.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 02:27:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Decennial re-districting

takes place next year.
I think the absolute #1 priority focus for this year 2010 should be on maintaining majorities (or gaining majorities where we're close) in those states where the legislatures perform the Congressional re-redistricting. Really to the exclusion of almost every other consideration when allocating your resources, because we'll be stuck with those results for 10 years.
(The census just would have had to happen in a GOP wave year. Ugh.)

So for example, the story today that some NY State Senators like Aubertine & Foley are in polling trouble. Those should be Essential Races.

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by: homerun @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 21:44:36 PM UTC

No additions, just me being

happy that the race I'm working on myself is already on the list. Kendall Van Dyk is a great candidate, a rising star in the Montana State House, and we need to make sure he knocks off failed 2008 gubernatorial candidate Roy Brown out of his Billings-area State Senate district. Van Dyk already represents half of the district in the State House, so it's almost an incumbent vs. incumbent race.

Oh, talking about MT SD-25, if anyone didn't know.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

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by: Twohundertseventy @ Tue Sep 28, 2010 at 22:06:55 PM UTC

I'll go with CA-AD-05.

I've written about the race over at DailyKos.  This is key because the Republican running in this open seat in Sacramento is Andy Pugno, who's better known (and despised among progressives) for being the lead lawyer who defended Prop. 8.  Now he wants to be a state legislator.

Interestingly, his website doesn't mention a THING about gay marriage, or his extensive work on behalf of homophobic bigots.

The Democrat y'all should support is Dr. Richard Pan, a Professor of Pediatrics at UC Davis.  They had a poll showing they could actually win the race, if the people could actually hear Pan's message.  So some money to help him get the word out about who he is, and about how bigoted Pugno is, could go a long way.

We need to pick up 6 Assembly seats to get a 2/3s majority.  That will be crucial if we're to get anything done, as California has a beyond stupid rule that budgets need a 2/3s majority to pass, which has allowed a tiny minority of Republicans to hold our budget hostage every year until they get all the spending cuts they want to slowly strangle the state to death.

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by: BruinKid @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 19:28:25 PM UTC

however

prop 20 ( i think thats the number)? would make budgets majority-vote

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)

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by: jncca @ Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 21:56:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, but there's still the major problem...

of how to actually GET a budget made, as ANY taxes also require 2/3s to pass.  And it's Prop. 25.

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by: BruinKid @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 04:06:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's my district

at least until it gets redrawn. Most of CA's state legislative districts are as uncompetitive as its congressional districts, so there is very little chance for the Dems to get to 2/3 in either house and even less for the Reeps to get a majority.

41, Ind, CA-05

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by: sacman701 @ Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 23:24:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

After see the second wave of the DLCC essential races

I worry a little, because I see few races of some chambers what I see rated as Toss-Up:

NH state senate (2)
ME state senate (1)
WI state senate (0)
NY state senate (1)
NC state senate (1)
AL state senate (0)
AK state senate (0)
CO state house (1)
IA state house (2)
NH state house (0)
WI state house (0)
AL state house (0)

While I see more in proportion about the chambers what I see rated as Leans Republican:

PA state house (2)
OH state house (2)
IN state house (3)
MT state house (1)
AK state house (0)

I see too some races in chambers rated as Likely Republican or Safe Republican:

MI state senate (1) LiR
KY state senate (1) LiR
MT state senate (1) LiR
TN state house (2) LiR
TX state house (2) LiR
MO state house (1) SR

I understand the DLCC include one or two key races in some safer chamber (Leans Democratic or Likely Democratic) for keep the control, but I would wish see more districts of the chambers rated as Toss-Up.

As example I think they are five key districts in the New York senate this year. SD-40 (included), SD-58, SD-48, SD-03 and SD-49.

I would select too some races for both chambers in Wisconsin, because the gubernatorial race is in risk too and the republicans can take full control of the redistricting like in Pennsylvania, Ohio or Alabama.

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by: abgin @ Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 00:04:27 AM UTC

and Indiana

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by: abgin @ Tue Oct 05, 2010 at 00:40:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]