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Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition

by: californianintexas

Mon May 17, 2010 at 6:23 AM EDT


While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
38.41%
39.15%
R+0.74
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.72%
41.46%
R+5.74
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.39%
39.42%
R+2.03
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.55%
40.13%
R+4.58
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.33%
42.75%
R+8.42
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.76%
41.55%
R+3.79
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.25%
44.44%
R+15.19
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.49%
40.23%
R+8.74
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip...
californianintexas :: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.

SENATE

Republicans (6)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-04
Sam Aanestad
32.57%
43.77%
R+12.20
M+11.8
SD-12
Jeff Denham
49.85%
31.47%
D+18.38
O+17.6
SD-14
Dave Cogdill
34.06%
46.91%
R+12.85
M+13.2
SD-15
Vacant
40.78%
34.50%
D+6.28
O+20.3
SD-18
Roy Ashburn
31.63%
47.31%
R+15.68
M+23.1
SD-36
Dennis Hollingsworth
29.03%
45.81%
R+16.78
M+14.2

Democrats (6)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
SD-02
Pat Wiggins
49.76%
24.40%
D+15.36
O+39.9
SD-16
Dean Florez
50.63%
31.84%
D+18.79
O+19.5
SD-22
Gilbert Cedillo
58.58%
14.61%
D+43.97
O+58.7
SD-24
Gloria Romero
53.17%
21.13%
D+32.04
O+41.3
SD-34
Lou Correa
44.25%
32.73%
D+11.52
O+16.8
SD-40
Denise Ducheny
46.63%
28.91%
D+17.72
O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (19)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-03
Dan Logue
34.34%
39.78%
R+5.44
M+1.6
AD-05
Roger Niello
38.81%
38.30%
D+0.51
O+4.2
AD-25
Tom Berryhill
37.51%
41.42%
R+3.91
M+7.9
AD-26
Bill Berryhill
42.71%
38.57%
D+4.14
O+4.4
AD-30
Danny Gilmore
45.87%
36.18%
D+9.69
O+3.9
AD-32
Jean Fuller
31.06%
48.95%
R+17.89
M+26.7
AD-33
Sam Blakeslee
35.70%
40.74%
R+5.04
O+1.4
AD-36
Steve Knight
38.95%
39.07%
R+0.12
O+0.8
AD-37
Audra Strickland
35.81%
40.97%
R+5.16
O+3.7
AD-38
Cameron Smyth
36.77%
39.51%
R+2.74
O+4.9
AD-59
Anthony Adams
34.63%
42.93%
R+8.30
M+4.8
AD-63
Bill Emmerson
37.87%
40.10%
R+2.23
O+4.1
AD-64
Brian Nestande
35.68%
42.24%
R+5.56
O+1.8
AD-65
Paul Cook
36.62%
41.44%
R+4.82
M+4.1
AD-68
Van Tran
32.67%
40.91%
R+8.24
M+2.9
AD-70
Chuck DeVore
30.02%
42.99%
R+12.97
O+3.9
AD-74
Martin Garrick
30.98%
41.60%
R+10.62
O+2.2
AD-75
Nathan Fletcher
30.87%
39.84%
R+8.97
O+4.1
AD-77
Joel Anderson
30.92%
43.75%
R+12.83
M+13.0

Democrats (19)

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
AD-07
Noreen Evans
52.75%
23.42%
D+29.33
O+43.3
AD-09
Dave Jones
55.94%
19.80%
D+36.14
O+49.0
AD-10
Alyson Huber
39.97%
39.03%
D+0.94
O+4.0
AD-11
Tom Torlakson
53.91%
21.78%
D+32.13
O+41.2
AD-15
Joan Buchanan
40.65%
35.65%
D+5.00
O+16.9
AD-20
Alberto Torrico
48.63%
19.89%
D+28.74
O+42.3
AD-21
Ira Ruskin
47.55%
26.25%
D+21.30
O+45.8
AD-23
Joe Coto
51.34%
18.69%
D+32.65
O+44.4
AD-28
Anna Caballero
55.39%
23.31%
D+32.08
O+38.3
AD-31
Juan Arambula
50.88%
32.08%
D+18.80
O+26.1
AD-35
Pedro Nava
47.79%
27.96%
D+19.83
O+35.6
AD-45
Kevin de León
58.83%
12.84%
D+45.99
O+63.6
AD-47
Karen Bass
64.73%
11.20%
D+53.53
O+71.9
AD-50
Hector De La Torre
61.48%
16.40%
D+45.08
O+55.9
AD-57
Ed Hernandez
51.14%
25.19%
D+25.95
O+34.4
AD-76
Lori Saldaña
42.24%
26.81%
D+15.43
O+34.4
AD-78
Martin Block
43.52%
30.78%
D+12.74
O+21.8
AD-79
Mary Salas
48.47%
23.91%
D+24.56
O+31.6
AD-80
Manuel Perez
45.41%
35.39%
D+10.02
O+20.7
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Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition | 3 comments
Speaking
about the state senate we have a very good chance of taking SD-15. The district has heavily Democratic cities such as Santa Cruz, Santa Clara, and Monterrey packed in it. Though it was smart of Schwarzenegger to schedule the general election for this seat on October 17th. If it was held in November, the Republican candidate, some State Rep would lose because Boxer and Jerry Brown would be at the top of the ticket.

SD-12...I don't know. I would rate it lean Republican at the moment. The GOP advantage in the Central valley imploded badly in 2008, but the GOP has been harping on the water issue like no tomorrow in an attempt to reestablish their advantage in the Central Valley.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Denham's running for U.S. House

for Radanovich's seat.  At least that's something.

Getting the three Assembly seats together seems like it could be more of a challenge to me.

Niello and Gilmore are open...what are Dem chances there?
That's two open seats where Dems have the registration advantage...
[ Parent ]
Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2010 Edition | 3 comments

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