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SSP Daily Digest: 9/1 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Sep 01, 2010 at 3:00 PM EDT


• DE-Sen: Wow, the mounting establishment/teabagger war in the GOP Delaware primary is actually getting physically violent. A Christine O'Donnell supporter got into a scuffle with a tracker from the state GOP party who was videotaping O'Donnell at a candidate forum

• IL-Sen: The Constitution Party is still trying to get back on the ballot in Illinois, maybe most notably in the close Senate race where Randy Stufflebeam would be their candidate. They're going to court to get back on the ballot after the state Board of Elections kicked them off for not having enough valid signatures.

• NV-Sen: School's out for the summer/ school's out... forever! The latest daily nugget of crazy from Sharron Angle is her recounting last week of her struggles back in the state legislature in 2003 against a supplemental budget bill that would have paid for emergency funding to make sure that the state's public schools could actually open at the start of the school year. Meanwhile, Harry Reid is continuing his apparently successful advertising strategy of letting Angle say the usual things she says, and just turning them straight into his own ads against her, as with his newest ad launched this week.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Despite the utter lack of drama in the big races in the Empire State, Quinnipiac just keeps polling it. (I guess that's OK; we'll take good news where we can get it.) In the governor's race, Andrew Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25 and Carl Paladino 60-23. (Unfortunately, there aren't GOP primary numbers, as it'd be interesting to see, as other pollsters have seen, whether Paladino might actually be able to overtake the insufficiently-crazy Lazio for the nomination.) In the Senate race, Kirsten Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 44-26, David Malpass 45-24, and Joe DioGuardi 43-28.

• CO-Gov: If either Dan Maes or Tom Tancredo is going to drop out and stop their tragic pas de deux, it'd better be soon. Friday, it turns out, is the last day before the November ballot printing is finalized. Meanwhile, here's the kind of headline you don't want to see when you're already fighting public perception that you're a bit of a paranoid wackjob who thinks that bicycles are a United Nations plot:

GOP gubernatorial candidate Maes backs off claims of undercover police work

• KY-Gov: The establishment slate for Kentucky Republicans for the off-year gubernatorial race (only a year from now!) seems like it's officially coalesced. David Williams, the state Senate president, will run for Governor, and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (who'd been a rumored governor candidate himself) will run for Lt. Governor. They'll still have to get past businessman Phil Moffet, running under the teabagger banner, in the GOP primary before facing Steve Beshear, who'll be seeking re-election. A recent poll had Farmer and Beshear neck-and-neck, but there hasn't been any Beshear/Williams polling yet.

• MA-09: Mac d'Allesandro's against Stephen Lynch in the Dem primary in the 9th is raising some decent cash in the late innings. Since July 1st, the SEIU, MoveOn, and Act Blue have raised $178K for d'Allesandro.

• PA-06: DNC DGA head Tim Kaine heads to Philly to fundraise on Manan Trivedi's behalf, as part of a tour on behalf of Asian-American Dem candidates. Trivedi's also had help on the stump this week from Bob Casey and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

• RGA: Good thing the RGA already has an unprecedented amount of money squirreled away... because they're going to have to give a decent chunk of it to Chris Bell, the ex-Rep. who was the 2006 Dem gubernatorial candidate in Texas. A Travis County judge ordered the RGA to pay Chris Bell a cosmic $2 million because of campaign finance violations in the '06 election (where the RGA gave an undisclosed $1 million to Texans for Rick Perry).

• WATN?: This isn't really FL-Sen anymore, but Jeff Greene is insisting on staying in the limelight even as his vomit-covered yacht sails into the sunset. In fact, the phrase "vomit-covered yacht" is really what's at stake here; he says he's following through with a libel suit against the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald over their reporting of his many foibles. Good luck proving actual malice!

• Maps: They're rapidly scrolling their way down the front page, so if you haven't had a chance to check out jeffmd's maps of Alaskan elections past, do it now. Begich/Stevens, Murkowski/Miller, and Young/Parnell all played out in similar ways, geographically, so if you're wondering what Scott McAdam's path to a win might look like, check it out.

• Ads:
• NH-Sen: We told you a few days ago that Ovide Lamontagne was finally going on the air; his first ad is a talk-to-the-camera introductory spot.
• PA-Sen: The DSCC is out with another ad, attacking Pat Toomey on the derivatives trading issue.
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold's new ad is testimonials from a variety of (as C. Montgomery Burns would say) Joe Lunchpails and Sally Housecoats.
• IN-02: Jackie Walorski is out with an introductory bio spot.
• NE-02: Tom White is also out with an introductory bio spot, carefully steering clear of anything Democratic-sounding.
• NJ-03: John Adler may actually win the advertising day today, with a negative spot that slams Jon Runyan for his tax break for his "farm" (a.k.a. McMansion plus one donkey).
• NV-03: Dina Titus hits Joe Heck for comments that "it's not Congress's role to create jobs." (This comes on top of the AFSCME's huge buy of anti-Heck ads.)

• Rasmussen:
• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) 33%, David Vitter (R-inc) 54%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 39%, John Kasich (R) 47%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 37%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%  
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/1 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 9/1 (Afternoon Edition) | 159 comments
NJ-03: Hard to believe my former State Senator
is now a Congressman.  I remember when he visited my school back in the fifth grade.  Even if you don't like his politics, his biggest saving grace is that he's incredibly nice.

Also, I'd like to make a correction.  Kaine chairs the DNC, not the DGA.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Thanks, fixed

[ Parent ]
Similar Situation
Leonard Lance always used to come to my high school history classes to talk and "guest lecture."  Always a really nice guy, and always open to answering any and all questions about politics and government.  Now he's a congressman, too.

Male, 23, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
My roommate had Michele Bachmann come to his class
And she didnt represent his district.
[ Parent ]
Same for me with Chris Shays
I think it was in first or second grade he came to talk at my elementary school. I better recall a more recent meeting when he talked at an after-church meeting shortly before the 2008 election. A charming fellow for sure, but I'm happier with Jim Himes, of course (yet to meet him).

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
[ Parent ]
Civil war going on at Red State over DE-SE?
For those of who enjoy cat fud among conservative blogs, there's an interesting potential civil war breaking out over at our favorite right-wing rat trap. Neil Stevens, who is one of their more reasonable writers, has a piece about how Republicans in Deleware actually favor Mike Castle over Christine O'Donnell, and that she's not catching fire in the state. It's not an endoresement of Castle, but it is interesting in light of Erik Erickson's full throated endoresement of O'Donnell (even to the point of claiming the unproven and utterly ridiculous theory that Castle would drop out if he won so he could be replaced with Beau Biden).

I don't have the heart to actually link to Red State, but you know where to go.  

Actually this leads me to think Castle wins easily
The fight over there is not even really a fight.  There is more people defending Castle than defending O'Donnell.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I cant believe O'Donnell can beat Castle
I mean in 2006 she lost a GOP Senate primary to Jan Ting coming in 3rd with only 17% of the vote.

In 2008 she was unopposed for the GOP Senate nod vs Biden but got only 35% of the vote in the General against a candidate who everyone knew wasnt even going to serve his term!

I know this year is different but I cant see a perennial gadfly candidate like O'Donnell beating a popular Congressman like Castle.

I know the GOP has been nominating the Tea Party crowd but O'Donnell is a bridge too far.



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[ Parent ]
I agree.
Mike Castle =/= Lisa Murkowski. Castle doesn't owe his political career to any family members. I had thought the bitterness of the nepotism had faded into history and Murkowski would win the primary and general in a walk. Apparently I was wrong. (And I was surprised no one had mounted a primary challenge to Lisa in 2004. Frank was already unpopular.)

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Palin considered it.
But she opted out.  
[ Parent ]
O'Donnell and her supporters
seem to be sooooo fringe that they make Joe Miller in AK seem like a cool, polished political pro by comparison (despite his extreme views).

Castle maybe possibly could be vulnerable to someone in a primary, but certainly not to this O'Donnell person, regardless of how much the Tea Party spends on ads for her.

[ Parent ]
Agree
But the sad thing is I'd take O'Donnell any the of the week over Sharon Angle.

Although part of it is that I like the name O'Donnell  

[ Parent ]
I bet the NRSC will spend something
just in case because they dont need another Alaska.
[ Parent ]
They better not
Even in DE, NRSC involvement would hurt big time. Every dollar the O'Donnell campaign receives hurts. She will get a ton of money if the NRSC spends there. Castle has almost 3 million. Let him do it. I actually am very worried about O'Donnell, but then again, I'm a pessimist when it comes to primaries.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not as worried about Castle.
He is right to not let his guard down, but he doesn't have the nepotism baggage Murkowski had.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Castle is going up on air, according to Delaware Liberal
A buy in the Salisbury market (which includes Sussex County) and on cable as well. Guess he doesn't want to be the next Murkowski.
[ Parent ]
Eh
I might take Angle over O'Donnell.  At least Angle seems to have sound financial affairs in her personal life.  O'Donnell is running around Delaware racking up debts and finding excuses to get out of them.  I can respect someone who keeps their financial affairs in order even if they are crazy.  I cannot respect someone who wants to have the hands of government, but cannot keep their own affairs in order.

O'Donnell needs to get a real job and get her affairs in order instead of being a pain in the ass to everyone in Delaware.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
She runs for office
Just to pay her debts. Angle is crazy, but she is not a terrible person, like O'Donnell and her campaign team are.  
[ Parent ]
Speaking if O'Donnell being a douchebagette
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I would not even respond to such an attack other than reminding voters that people like O'Donnell have hurt the financial industry, which is huge in Delaware, by not paying their bills.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
First of all,
Neil Stevens is not one of the more reasonable writers. He specializes in the electoral landscape.

If you are really interested in conservative factions breaking out on RedState (I don't know if this resembles Alaska as a whole) look at Achance and his Miller bashing.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Oops sorry...`
I guess I showed my ignorance of RedState. I thought someone had said he was one of the most reasonable writers?

Oh well - and, yeah Ryan, I did notice in the comments people were defending Castle more than O'Donnell. I guess the ultimate question in my mind is whether Erik E. will try one more time to push O'Donnell now that his head has swelled as result of Miller's win.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry if my first comment seemed a little know-it-all.
I'm guilty of that sometimes.

Neil Stevens banned me three and a half weeks ago for calling myself an "Independent" and not a "conservative" (!) I also told him that PPP is not as bad of a pollster as he says.

Anyway, with the new Rasmussen poll, Achance is probably going to telling RedStaters how it was a mistake to nominate Miller.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Oh, no, that's cool...
I really don't go into RedState that often, though I notice as the election heats up, I'm going into there more. I find Erik Erickson a fascinating (if repulsive, to me anyway) character. His conspiracy claim against Castle was one of the highlights of the election year for me.  
[ Parent ]
Really?
I'm just the opposite. As the election gets closer, I find myself spending more and more time there. Maybe after the primaries are over I'll go.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah.
Same with me. I just don't understand how you get to that.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I think I'm just fascinated with what Erickson will post next
btw: GOPVOTER, did you mean you're going to Redstate less now, or more? Couldn't tell by your post.  
[ Parent ]
Woops
I meant to say less and less. I must have looked up at your post as I was typing.  
[ Parent ]
Same
I dunno why. I was over there alot buliding up to the SC-GOV primary. I did like how he was a big Nikki Haley supporter and really gave her campaign a boost.

But yeah, he seems a bit off the wall and the electoral anaylsis there isn't great.  

[ Parent ]
I was banned once at Redstate
I was banned once for defending Giuliani during the primary.  In general, I find them as distasteful as DailyKos.  I am glad this blog separated itself from Kos because it gives its content greater legitimacy.

In particular with Stevens, his PPP comments are irrational.  Their polling has been largely accurate and pro-Republican in terms of results.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
We're
all election buffs here that's why. If we were just focused on partisan issues like Daily KOS, Redstate ya things would be different.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Different breed here
We are simply a different breed.  We are more like the Political Science Club and they are more like the College Republicans or Democrats.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
what PSC do you go to?
I'd like to join.  Every PSC or PSL i go to it's always foreign policy this, political theory that.  you start talking about elections and it's either partisan talking points, or blank stares.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Right now I am not with a group per se
Where I go to law school, Villanova, there is an informal group of political science nuts that get together and talk about politics from a non-ideologically mad perspective.  While most want to talk foreign policy, I tend to steer the conversation towards elections.  From my observations, the political science community at the undergrad campus is not filled with CR or CD types.

Sadly electoral analysis is unappreciated.  Interesting seeing what we do on here is more likely to resemble what actually happens on campaigns.  Debating Locke or Marx, which I enjoy, but think is electorally pointless, just is not the same as debating how a race is going to turn out.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
OH-Sen: I think the intersting Constitution Party Senate news is in Ohio no IL
Where their candidate was just indicted on a charge of unlawful sexual conduct with a minor:

http://www.wdtn.com/dpp/news/l...

What a creep!


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WV Sen: Keep Manchin in the Mansion?
In the WSJ today John Fund has a story about the problems Popular Governors have running for Senate. He even mentions the "Keep Koch Mayor" campaign Cuomo used in 1982:

http://online.wsj.com/article/...

I wrote about this the other day in the weekly thread (did John Fund steal this from me?).

I also think that the chaos of the WV gubernatorial succession could be an issue. If Manchin is elected WV could have 3 different Governors in 1 year and 4 different Governors in 2 years!

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That would make sense IF Raese was a formidable opponent.
Manchin also should reach out a bit to the people who voted for Ken Hechler in the primary.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
keep
Hoeven governor!  While ND is more republican than WV is democratic, it seems a bit of a stretch that they want him as governor THAT much to vote against him.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
"Keep Koch Mayor"?
The slogan I remember is:

"Vote for Cuomo,
Not the Homo."

[ Parent ]
That was for the 1977 Democratic Mayoral Primary not the 1982 Gov race
"Vote for Cuomo, Not the Homo" was the slogan that was used in the 1977 Democratic Primary on flyers in the outer Boroughs against Koch.

Rumor was it was Mario Cuomo's son (and current gubernatorial candidate) Andrew Cuomo who was responsible for putting those flyers out there.

Koch supposedly held a grudge against Andrew for this for a very long time and apparently they only recently made amends.

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[ Parent ]
And it is amazing to think how much the world has change in 23 years.
To think that putting up posters that say "Vote for Cuomo and Not the Homo" would in any ways be acceptable in a Democratic Primary today is just unimaginable.

Sometimes its nice to see that the in some ways the world has changed for the better.

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[ Parent ]
Make that 33 years
n/t

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[ Parent ]
It wasn't really acceptable then, either
It was a dirty trick that the Cuomo campaign claimed they had nothing to do with.

I'm not disputing that that's unimaginable today in a Democratic Primary, but in NY in 1977, it was still not seen as a legit attack.  

[ Parent ]
Future Governor Andrew Cuomo?
Interesting to see he was just as charming back in the 1970s.
[ Parent ]
Bracing myself for a bad week of polls
Gallup's generic was likely an outlier, but the CW has solidified that November is going to be a debacle for Dems, and already both the lefty blogs and DC Dems are breaking out in angry pre-mortems. I'm not looking forward to the late 2010/early 2011 Dem civil war.

I'm bracing myself for most of the forecasters to put out there new rankings soon. Sabato indicated in the FT that Crystal Ball's forecast is going to be bleak. Nate says his House forecast will be up soon and hasn't been much more encouraging. And of course, Charlie Cook is implying that losses could climb over 50 ("worse than '94"). Cook, btw, completely irritates me because, while his forecasts may be correct, he clings to the "it was health care!" explanation that seems completely beside the point.

Maybe I'm just grasping at straws, but the one consolation is these forecasts are, in some ways, "lagging indicators," reflecting the terrible polling of August. If there's a sustained uptick, it won't get reflected in the rankings till the end of the month. And, hey, maybe there will be an uptick. Both Rasmussen and Gallup have Obama's approvals up - Gallup to 47/45 (+2), and Rasmussen to 48/51 (-3). Hopefully this isn't just a momentary Iraq-induced blip.  

I think there's a decent chance...`
August might turn out to be the nadir of Democratic fortunes.  
[ Parent ]
That's what I'm hoping
And I'm also wondering if AA turnout may be higher-than-is-typical for a midterm election, even if don't report being "enthused."
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about that. But here's what I'm thinking...
The next couple of weeks is where the Dems money advantage might start getting some results. The Republican's have nominated quite a few out-of-the mainstream candidates this time around.

And the economy is showing signs of ticking up slightly, which helps.

One thing I remember, in 2006, Republicans had reached a nadir over the summer, and then started coming back. I think they might have kept the House (and I'm sure they would have kept the Senate) if not for Mark Foley. I'm hoping Dems can mount a similar comeback, without the Mark Foley.  

[ Parent ]
My fantasy is that people of color across the board turn out much higher than expected......
Black voters obviously are the most likely, and if they don't turn out higher than in recent past midterms, then no other nonwhite voters will.  I don't discount the possibility that likely voter models could miss turnout among other nonwhite groups, too, especially Hispanics who are experiencing a linear if relatively slow increase in vote share due purely to increased population share.  Problem is, even if all the above proves true, the way the math works out is that it helps us only on the margins in the closest races in certain few districts and states.  The numbers aren't there to overcome a wave.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
What is it with August anyway?
Last year, August was a pretty traumatizing month for Dem fortunes too. With the health care reform scares reaching fever pitch, Obama's job approval fell to what were, back then, new and discouraging lows, and the GOP first won the upper hand in the generic ballot.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/...
http://www.pollster.com/polls/...  

38, Male, SP, NL / LMP, HU

[ Parent ]
it's too hot
not to be angry.  it explains the south and the middle east pretty well.  not sure if i'm being sarcastic or not.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Gallop
Gallops generic ballot pretty much follows Obama's job approval ratings and FWIW O's approval rating is up to 47% today after being as low as 42% last week (An Iraq pullout bump?). Look for the Generic Ballot to tighten next week.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Good!
Maybe less doom and gloom around here
[ Parent ]
Well, brace yourself for a very bad forecast tomorrow
Taegan Goddard tweets:

Check Political Wire at 6 am for an eye-opening new midterm election forecast...

My guess is this is from Sabato. He himself tweeted that they're releasing their new forecasts tomorrow, and a FT time article from yesterday hinted it would be bad:

The University of Virginia's widely monitored Crystal Ball will on Wednesday forecast sweeping setbacks on Capitol Hill and the loss of a clutch of state governorships on November 2.

...

"Voters are going to deliver a big fat message to President Obama, which he will not want to hear," said Larry Sabato, who runs Crystal Ball. "The Republican base is at least 50 degrees further to the right than where it was when Newt Gingrich took control of the House in 1994, so we would be looking at two years of absolutely nothing getting done on Capitol Hill."

> http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/44d4...


[ Parent ]
I remember a lot of pre-mortems...
...in September, 2008 as well...  
[ Parent ]
The pundits and experts consistently overestimated
Republican strength in the elections of 1996, 1998, 2000, 2004, 2006, and 2008.

The Democratic collapse elections that come at 8 year intervals are where they make up, or try to make up, their credibility deficit.  But that's a mixed bag.  In 1994 both sides overestimated Democratic strength, both misreading the pollings.  In 2002 the Democratic side overestimated their strength and the Republican pundits got it right, and the polling turned out to be right.  This year it seems that pundits on both sides are deciding to err in favor of Republican strength and read the pollings pretty much the same way.

I'm not hearing the 'but we're a center-Right country' pseudoexplanation from the pundits after the beating it took in November 2008, but it still seems to be there under the surface.

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm - are you sure this is right
Charlie Cook has gone on record as saying by late August 2006, he was predicting the Republicans were doomed in the House. The Senate prediction probably came a little later, but I distinctly remember virtually every pundit I read saying the Republicans were in big trouble in the fall of 2006. The generic ballot was disasterous for the Republicans in the summer of 2006.

As for 2008, before the financial meltdown, there was some talk of at least a McCain comeback, but I don't think any pundits were predicting the Republicans were going to come back in Congress. And after the meltdown, all of the pundits I remember reading were talking about how bad the Republican losses were going to get.

And 2004 - that one I don't understand what you're saying. In fact, the Republicans pulled out all the close races for Senate that year, and kept the House solidly, so how can you say Republican strength was exaggerated.

I agree with you on 1994, 1998 and 2002 - I think the pundits were proved wrong in their preditions in those years, and in 1998 they definitely overestimated Republican strength. Not sure about in 1996.

I think we have to be careful. I personally believe that the winds are blowing hard against the Democrats right now, but I also think there's a very decent chance things will improve before the fall.  

[ Parent ]
2006
The generic ballot tightened in the wake of the Atlantic terror plot and the 9/11 anniversary.
[ Parent ]
Yep. you're right
Take a look at this - this is interesting. In 2006, the Dems were way ahead on the generic ballot except for the time around the 9/11 anniversary, when the Republicans managed to tie them on the USA Today Gallup poll.

It actually went up to a 23 point difference in favor of the Dems in the poll a couple of weeks later (I imagine this was around the time the Foley scandal broke)

Interstingly, it looks like by the time the election came around things had tightened considerably again (Dems were only up by seven in the last Gallup poll before the election)

http://www.pollingreport.com/2...

[ Parent ]
Right, hopefully 10% is their peak in Gallup
So long as there's no more bad news before November, it could happen. Certainly, Dem turnout will probably be at least moderately better than what the polls are predicting right now. And Republicans are so "enthused" right now, it's hard to see their turnout increasing beyond current LV models.  
[ Parent ]
Fully agree

[ Parent ]
You're dead wrong about 1996 and 2004......
In 1996, we picked up a net of only 8 House seats after campaigning hard on taking back the House, and Clinton disappointed by finishing sub-50 in the national popular vote despite job approvals clearly in the 50s.  Bob Kerrey was the DSCC Chair and recruited a bunch of rich businessmen who had never run for anything in their lives, and ALL of them LOST (including, btw, Walt Minnick who now is a frosh Congressman).

In 2004, Republicans surged at the end and turned what was an evenly contested election into a clear Republican victory, picking up Senate and House seats while Dubya got reelected when many thought, EVEN ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE ELECTION, that he was doomed.

Fair point that there have been occasions when pundits overestimated Republican strength, but the above examples show Democrats underperforming in two of the years you cite.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Did the DCCC fumble '96?
I realize they had to pick up more than 20 seats to win control (the '94 Republican pickup got padded by several party-switchers in the South), but it seems like it should have been possible. Gingrich was unpopular, Dole was getting crushed, Clinton was cruising to reelection, and according to Wikipedia, Dems actually won the House popular vote.

2000 also looks like a big fumble - the margin of control was less than 10 -- all they needed to do in a year where Gore won the popular vote and Dems picked up four Senate seats was an EIGHT seat pickup.  

[ Parent ]
I did an excercise
Yesterday trying to game out individual House races while taking the generic ballot into account and a host of other factors. I made myself as pessimistic as possible and still only came up with them netting 35 seats. And these races are only just heating up. I think active campaigns will make a huge difference and save lots of seats. I'm not prepared to concede it a lost cause yet. Not by a long shot.
[ Parent ]
Me neither
I mean, come on, it's barely even September. Two months to go!  
[ Parent ]
Also...
My above response to Baystater does not mean that I don't think the pundits can't be wrong. They clearly were about Democratic changes in 1998, as well as the Republican wave in 1994 and their good performance in 2002 (that one I remember in particular - many people were predicting an end to Republican House control that year).  
[ Parent ]
I don't think people expected Dems to take the House in '02
Certainly not by September of '02. I think the CW by that point was little-to-no-change in the House and a couple seat gain for the Dems in the Senate. Part of the problem for Dems that year was that Republican gerrymanders in several key states cancelled out a lot of Democratic gains. (Unfortunately, we're still playing on the same Republican-friendly map, and if this year is a disaster at the state level, it'll be a similar story this next decade.)

That said, Dems would probably have retaken the House in '02 and expanded their Senate majority had 9-11 not occurred.

Looking back at House elections, the one that I find interesting is '96: given Clinton's comfortable win, and widespread revulsion at Gingrich and co., why didn't Dems retake the House that year? They actually won the House popular vote according to Wikipedia.  

[ Parent ]
You're probably right about 2002
I remember working on a Dem campaign that year with the manager of the campaign confidentally predicting that Dems would take the house. It came as a huge disappointment to me when we didn't. I guess I assumed the pundits were predicting the same thing.

No idea what happened in 1996. That was one of the few years I wasn't involved in a campaign, or following politics in general (I voted for the Big Dog, but did very little else). I was still crushed by the 1994 results.  

[ Parent ]
If Rs are up in the Generic Ballot by +4 on Nov 1
I think we hold the House. It may be as high as +5. At +6, I think we lose the House (though if there are enough "crazy" R candidates, we might hold it even then).

Extra margin in the generic ballot is required to overcome incumbency effects, i.e., there are a significant number of "I'll vote for a Generic R, but for my Rep" (even if s/he's a D).

I've cited some studies on the effect from Gallup / 538 / Andrew Gellman yesterday I think. They all suggest that the break-even point is somewhere around +4 or +5 R in the Generic Ballot -- given the current seat breakdown.

Of course, these studies show some variability (i.e., if I remember right, Gallup suggests that if --everything-- breaks R, they may gain the House with "just" a +3).

[ Parent ]
Thoughts...
No matter how you slice it 40 seats is an awful lot of seats to make up. You toss in the fact that you can really only chalk up about 8 seats that can flip because of scandals/retirements (2 in TN, 2 in AR, Massa's seat, Melancon's seat, Obey's seat, Stupak's seat)  toss in some accidental Representatives elected in Obama's wave such as Dreihaus, Teague and Nye and you have a lot of seats that are going to be legitimate toss ups. Given the terrible atmosphere and deflated base it looks like major losses are coming. But exactly where and over 40? Despite all of the public's anger and flippant Congressional Corruption in 2006 and 2008 the Dems picked up 55 seats combined. Are districts really that gerrymandered? I really don't see the GOP picking up nearly that many in just one cycle. While the Dems are hated lots of people fail to see the GOP as a reasonable alternative like in 2006 and 1994 the other party was seen as a reasonable alternative. Maybe I am naïve but do people really see the GOP as a breath of fresh air?

The major issue beyond 2010 will be that states like Ohio, PA and Texas will likely have GOP Govs who are going to gerrymander things even worse. Even a state like VA which is badly gerrymandered too will not have a Dem Gov to ensure that districts are redrawn fairly.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov: Scott Chooses African American, McCollum supporting, state Rep
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...
She was also considered for the senate appointment by Charlie Crist. A VERY good choice, with so few African American's, especially women, in the party. Hopefully it is true.  
Even if true, it doesn't change the fact that
Rick Scott is on the top of the ticket.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Nevertheless, affirmative action in these cases
will end up helping Rs overall. I'm starting to lose count of the number of significant R candidates who are not white males.
[ Parent ]
No, it does not help. Nobody cares about Lt. Gov., and further...
...black voters don't vote for black Republicans, even against white Democrats, except under the most unusual circumstances.  I've paid close attention to nonwhite voting behavior, and the best a black Republican has performed with black voters in the past decade-plus was Michael Steele getting 25% of the black vote in MD-Sen 2006, and that's IF the exit poll was correct which it may or may not have been.  Steele by all accounts ran a great campaign, and Cardin a lousy one, and still Cardin won by 10.

I bet you'd have to go back to Edward Brooke to find a black Republican who performed truly well with black voters.

All that aside, no one gives a shit about Lt. Gov.  It just doesn't matter who anyone picks unless it's someone real bad who causes trouble.  There's no way to move votes with the pick in your own favor.

What this does show on Scott's part is that he's TRYING to pivot toward the center without surrendering his right-wing demogoguery.  But Pat Buchanan picked a black woman for his running mate when he ran for President as the Reform Party nominee in 2000, and he got no traction with that.  That's about the kind of result we can expect to see with Rick Scott on this one.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It's when the numbers of candidates get beyond "token" levels
You're right w/r/t individuals.

But when the numbers of non-white male candidates get beyond "token" numbers, it becomes more difficult to document how such a party is not representative of America.

Then Ds have to compete on issues. Ds still win overwhelmingly on such, but optics matter.

Once the numbers get beyond "token" levels, then overwhelming vote advantages among certain blocs will lessen.

[ Parent ]
The number's not great, but it's getting better
Rubio, Martinez, West, Barela, Herrera, Tim Scott in SC-01, Quico Canseco in TX-23, Van Tran in CA-47, and incumbents Charles Djou and Joe Cao are all minorities running serious races this year. There's also the three Cuban GOP Reps. in Miami, Nunes in California, and I believe a couple more Hispanic Republicans with less of a chance in the southwest.

For white women, there's Ayotte, Angle, and Fiorina running for Senate and Whitman, Fallin, and Brewer running for governor. Not sure on the number for the House, but most prominently there's Diane Black, Kristi Noem, Sandy Adams, Martha Roby, Michele Rollins, Nan Hayworth, and Wacky Jackie in addition to Herrera.

Not great, but at least we're not all old white Christian dudes.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
The numbers will stay only "token" for Republicans for the indefinite future because...
...you can't get minorities elected above their share of participation in your party.  There's no increase in black Americans aligning with Republicans, and there has not been any trend in the GOP direction among them at any point in my lifetime.  And now with a liberal Democrat as America's first black President, black loyalty to the Democratic Party is virtually assured for another long stretch of time.

Republicans aren't going to be able to get black people elected to office beyond token numbers for a very long time, and in fact they're likely to do better with Hispanics over the long-term simply because they can count on higher support, in the one-third ballpark, and there are simply greater numbers and the numbers are growing.  But even there, Republicans have blown it for a generation and will see Democrats continue to clean up with Hispanic voters for quite awhile before the GOP wakes up and starts to embrace diversity for real.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That's why I used the term "affirmative action"
I believe, despite their rhetoric, they're looking for qualified women and non-whites.

If they're successful, the numbers of officials of such group(s) will exceed their proportions of voters. When? 4 years? Maybe 8? More? Depends on the consistency of their --affirmative action-- efforts.

Sure, it will take years, but it's a long term project for them concurrent with the changes premised in the "Emerging Democratic Majority". If they fail, Rs in their current form will be irrelevant starting sometime in the late '20s.

No, it's not organic to the current R party. But neither was integrated schools to the South through the '60s and much of the '70s.

[ Parent ]
You're ignoring something
The Republican Party, as it stands right now, is hostile towards women and minorities, and that's why they do poorly among those groups. Ultimately, it doesn't really matter how many "affirmative action" candidates they run, they can't escape that label unless they fundamentally alter what their party is about w/r/t these groups.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That's why I believe the appropriate term is "affirmative action"
If the R party weren't hostile, such actions would not be necessary to bring out as many non-white R candidates as they do.
[ Parent ]
Fantastic
I've been hearing great things about Jennifer Carroll for ages. I was hoping she'd consider running for congress (she ran for something before and lost iirc) or senate.

Probably the best choice possible in FL. I'll probably now support Scott, I didn't really care before since the redistricting factor dosen't matter here, and the fact that Scott is a god-awful person. Only wish it was a McCollum-Carroll ticket... sigh

[ Parent ]
Carroll
She's in Crenshaw's district, right? So, she'd have to primary him to win. She was considered for appointment for the Sen seat by Crist last year. I agree with your feelings on Scott. If Scott wins this year, I wonder, if even as a one year Lt. Gov, she is the NRSC's first pick for Senate, just because she is African American and a woman? She also wouldn't be teabagged, as she is popular with the base.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe
It's that Nelson's seat is gonna be super competitive in 2012 and she'll have plenty of top tier opposition. She'll need to get fundraising connections.

The only thing is, If scott turns out to be a terrible Governor it's very hard to differentiate Carroll from him. He'll certainly damage her. Let's just hope she's a strong enough candidate to rise above it.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
It's that Nelson's seat is gonna be super competitive in 2012 and she'll have plenty of top tier opposition. She'll need to get fundraising connections.

The only thing is, If scott turns out to be a terrible Governor it's very hard to differentiate Carroll from him. He'll certainly damage her. Let's just hope she's a strong enough candidate to rise above it.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen confirms PPP in Alaska...
Gives Miller an even smaller lead of only 6 points:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

This looks like it may be winnable!  Considering how cheap it is to invest there, it's definitely worth investing!

Good
Alaska is the place to watch....

don't pay any attention to West Virginia.

[ Parent ]
The rass poll is
Joe Miller 50 - Scott McAdams 44

90% of dems are backing McAdams while 79% of repubs are backing Miller. McAdams is up 22 with indies.33% view Miller "very unfavorably".

Another shocking thing from the poll(which backs up PPP and a Republican pollster) has Obama at 46% approval in Alaska. PPP had him at 44% and the Republican poll had him at 40%. Apparently Alaska is not Oklahoma.

If this poll is true, then I'm pretty shocked and pleased. Of course caveats regarding Alaska polling always apply here.

[ Parent ]
Wow
If those results are even close to true, McAdams is in pretty good shape.  As has been said, this is somewhere where a little money goes a long way.  Who knew that Alaska would turn out to be one of the most dramatic races?

Male, 23, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
2 Democratic senators from Alaska?
Mmmmmmmmmm-mmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
And
if McAdams wins, this will be the first time since 1968 that Alaska sent two Democrats to the Senate, and then Gruening and Bartlett were Alaska's first Senators ever.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
It would
be good for the DSCC to throw down like 200k to test out how portraying Joe Miller as an unapologetic right winger would go in Alaska. It isn't more of a waste than throwing down millions to protect Blanche Lincoln who's going down anyway.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
McAdams has some good starting money too.
via Actblue alone, he has raised over 60K. http://www.actblue.com/entity/...

That should help him advance his campaign operations.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I think all this talk about Alaska going Republican is premature...
The more you hear about Joe Miller, the easier he becomes to beat

As I said in another thread, I think McAdams is a much better investment than Marshall in North Carolina.  

[ Parent ]
I see LordMike beat me to it
I think Alaska will be the steal of the cycle (unless the GOP manages to screw up Delaware too). If McAdams is only down 6 now (when I personally think Democrats are at their low point), I think he has a very good chance of pulling this out.

God, can you imagine Begich and McAdams storing up seniority and building a machine together over the next 30-40 years? I'm pretty sure we would be able to turn Alaska into a blue state by the end of it.

I also think this is evidence of Rasmussen finally shifting into "accuracy" mode. It's that time of the cycle where they actually need to be credible, I suppose.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Unless it is evidence of a trap
I trust PPP, Rasmussen less so.
[ Parent ]
Hate to throw cold water on this Rasmussen poll, but...
...the same poll gives Obama a 46% job approval, and only 54% disapproval.  In Alaska.  Which is dark red and hasn't given a Democratic Presidential nominee 40% of vote since...well...LBJ maybe?

Rasmussen manufactures a GOP bias in his polling, but he has the occasional outlier in our direction, too, as a result of his many methodological flaws.

I'll bet anything Scott Rasmussen polls this race again in a couple weeks and finds Miller up 15, maybe even more.  Seriously.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Thanks for that
I personally thought the poll was way off too, but I didn't want to post and have people think I was just a Republican in denial or something. I think Miller has his head above the water here, in the low 50's, and it will take either some dirty laundry or some great campaigning from McAdams for Democrats to win this (and unless McAdams picks up the fundraising, it's going to have to be the first of those two options.)

On the other hand, I also think the MN-Gov poll with Emmer and Dayton tied is junk. I have that at Lean to Likely D and would be shocked if more polling showed this race close.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Not to throw warm water on this...
but Obama's approval in PPP's poll was 44/53. So we have 8, and 9. It seems a bit good for Alaska, but obviously they are polling the same electorate.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I hate those negative signs.
We have Negative 8 (Ras) and Negative 9. (PPP)

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
I think the NRSC
poll, which is probably an outlier, showed Obama's approval at Negative 13.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Oooooh, good catch, thanks, and that DOES validate Rasmussen's good numbers for McAdams!!!......
Seriously, thanks, I can't dispute when a second pollster, and a generally credible one at that, is in the same ballpark.

Alaska is a weird state, its geographic isolation produces a weird insulated politics, and that makes it awfully tough for us on the mainland to gauge what's happening there and why.

Of course, it's easily possible that Rasmussen and PPP both are very wrong, in any direction, based simply on failing to poll the outlying areas with lots of scattered voters who are impossible to reach and have political mentalities distinct from the cities and towns that are easier to reach.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
All the better for us
If Ras and PPP can't accurately reach voters in the Bush or out in the Kenai peninsula, that's even better.  Voters in Alaska's nowhere-lands, especially if they are Native Americans, which they disproportionately are, are heavily Dem.  GOP strongholds like Fairbanks and the Mat-Su valley shouldn't be that hard to reach, especially in comparison.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
If it would be 2008 instead of 2010
McAdams could win. But this year i foresee narrow Miller's win
[ Parent ]
Biden and the Big Dog are on the move.
Bill Clinton is heading back to Arkansas to appear with Blanche Lincoln next week.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

Biden is going to Toledo, Ohio on Labor Day.  Won't say for who, it just says to help Democrats there in general.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Lincoln will most likely lose,
but it probably won't be by such a gigantic number that are predicted in the polls.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
If the DSCC
spends a SINGLE dime on Blanche Lincoln, there is something wrong with them. And Indiana as well.

Menendez is smart enough to know not to spend money in North Dakota.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Disagree
To compare Blanche Lincoln and Brad Ellsworth is not an accurate statement. I am not saying that Ellsworth is going to win but he stands a MUCH better shot than Lincoln. A lean R race is not the same as a safe R. Ellsworth is doing good on money anyway. He has 1 mil CoH and (someone correct me if I am wrong) that does not include the million that Bayh gave. So roughly he has twice the cash as Coats. Still I would expect the DCC to spend some money. Not a lot but just some to show they are not giving up on it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen polled AK-Sen
Miller  50% to McAdams 44%

I'm giddy right now

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

NM-Gov
Both Denish and Martinez came out with new ads in the never-ending ad cycle in New Mexico (non-stop ads for our small state since Mid-May).

http://nmfbihop.com/diary/4220...

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

Hurricane Earl and Maine polling
Right now, Texas and Maine lead on PPP's poll. They will poll the top 2. Hurricane Earl will be affecting Maine on Saturday. Would that have any affect on the poll, with potential power outages and evacuations of island areas?  
Bigger problem
it's Labor Day weekend. I don't know why they would poll over this weekend.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Didn't even think of that. Maybe they will be polling early next week, like they did Memorial Day?  
[ Parent ]
Who should
they poll for a primary for Olympia Snowe?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
PPP will definitely be doing Texas, and are asking for suggests on what to ask
in addition to the Governor's race.
Here: http://publicpolicypolling.blo...
[ Parent ]
Appears
California is moving ahead. Good time to poll, right after the debate, and seeing how the Senate is now likely to come down to WA, WI, and CA.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
And
It hasn't been polled by not Rasmussen since July. Interesting to see what LV model says there too.
[ Parent ]
Apparently
Politico cites unnamed Democratic sources saying that they are very worried about Wisconsin, a little worried about Washington, and not that concerned about California.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
That M
Matches my confidence level in those 3 races too. Of the 3, I am most confident about WI, and least about CA.  
[ Parent ]
Feingold is strong, though.
He campaigns hard.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
AZ-03: Hulburd radio ad hits Quayle on morality.
This ad is set to air on 3 Christian radio stations and 1 conservative radio station in the Phoenix area.  It brings up Quayle's work for a raunchy site.



Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

It's a radio ad
but they did create that youtube video fro some reason.  
IMO "Brock Landers" is an incredibly obscure reference that's on-screen for a significant portion of the ad, and I'd wager 99.9% couldn't place it without Googling it. And 99% of this ad's audience wouldn't be familiar with that movie. Weird.
[ Parent ]
O'Donnell supporters say Castle had a gay affair
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

O'Donnell is making Angle look sane, rational and charming.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

yes, because
that won't backfire horribly at all (Snark).

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Slandering the Beloved Mike Castle
Making such statements against a man that is equally as popular as Joe Biden in Delaware cannot be good.  I know plenty of people from Delaware.  Everyone loves Mike Castle and outsiders attacking him cannot go over well.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
If they attacked him on policy
she might have a chance of a decent showing (35-40%.  Maybe) but this, i find it unlikely she'll get more than 20%.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
probably will backfire,
 just like in SC with the unsubstantiated sex charges against Nikki Haley actually getting people to rally around her campaign.
[ Parent ]
What
a dumb...(you fill in the blank).

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Bitch?
I filled it in. She is almost as bad as Scott. If she wins, I would back any sane third party or Coons before her. I don't want the party to get a sen majority that bad that we have someone as horrible as her.  
[ Parent ]
I think there is a distinction between the true believers and candidates who are just using the tea party
In my opinion I think there is a real difference between the true believer tea party candidates (I put Paul, Miller, Lee and Angle in this category) and those using the Tea Party for their own purposes like pork barreler JD Heyworth running as a Tea Party candidate and career perennial candidate O'Donnell latching on the the Tea Party to try and make her seem part of a movement when in fact she is just a loon who likes to run for office.



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[ Parent ]
VT-GOV
May take until sept 18th to count all of the ballots.  There's also some stuff about Dubie's plan lacking specifics and Bernie going after Debt panelist Simpson.  (Trying to increase 7 days readership.  I just like the paper).

http://www.7dvt.com/2010dont-s...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

September 18
Its Vermont... I would assume they could count them all in a week at the most unless they are having three people do it.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
it can't start
until next week (the 8th i think) and they need 40 volunteers per county.  it could be quicker, but it's hard to say.  either way it's an extra 2-4 weeks for dubie to campaign without an opponent.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Dubie
Is very lucky. He had a good chance of winning before, even better now,especially with Markowitz out.  
[ Parent ]
Dubie
I went to his website and this guy looks like the prototypical New England Republican statewide official.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
I disagree
While I'm not sure where Shumlin stands as a nominee yet (if he is the nominee) I find markowitz' results in the primary to be underwhelming.  Consider: she had raised the most money of any candidate, had been elected statewide 6 times without losing once and didn't have any controversial votes weighing her down, yet she only garnered 24% of the vote.  in South Dakota, LT Gov Daugaard ran against several qualified candidates for the nomination and squashed them, getting 51% of the vote.  She ran a lackluster campaign that earned her third place, whereas racine and Shumlin earned their spots (in a good way).  Also, i participated in a lot of the parades around the state and always saw either the candidates, or their volunteers involved, except for hers.  Shumlin, Bartlett, Dunne, Racine, if they weren't at a parade, they sent volunteers, but not Markowitz.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I guess so then
Its nice having people here from the states we are talking about. I only went by polls.  
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen (B): NYPost backs David Malpass
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/o...

For what it's worth, Malpass is the race's self-funder, with $2.3M COH.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I think this endorsement might matter more than normal
No one is paying any attention at all to this GOP primary and probably no one will until there is a primary winner (and even then they might not).

Lacking any other info endorsements like The Post might actually matter more than in elections where voters know who the candidates actually are!

Its amazing how the GOP in New York has completely abdicated their role as an opposition. The state which is now completely being run by Democrats is being run into the ground. Albany is extremely unpopular, Gillibrand cant break above 40% in the polls in a heavily Democratic state and the GOP puts up imbeciles and nobodies on the top of their ticket.

Democrats really lucked out here that the GOP couldnt find serious candidates to run for Governor and Senate. If the GOP could have gotten someone like Giuliani or even a rich guy CEO like Dick Parsons to run at the top of the ticket I think the Dems could have been in real trouble.

We all laugh about Quinnipiac polling NY but when I see Gillibrand only getting 43% of the vote against Kara DioGuardi's Dad I can only think how lucky the Democrats are that no one of stature decided to run against her.

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[ Parent ]
Sorry for my post below
I had it sitting on my screen for a long time and forgot to submit it, and I had no idea you had posted the same thing above me!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
No worries, great minds think a like!
n/t

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[ Parent ]
Not luck...
$$$

She had lots of money and Cuomo on the top of the ticket to provide her coattails... Few people would want to challenge that!

[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac poll had Gillibrand still in the 40's
If the Republicans do worse than expected in the Senate races, this is going to be viewed as a major missed opportunity for John Cornyn and the NRSC. If an incumbent--even an appointed one--is below 50 in September against no-names in this blue a state when she has done everything right, she's not in great position. Had the NRSC not failed epically at recruiting (and it didn't have to be Giuliani or Pataki--someone like Pete King would have done), this would have at least been interesting, and another seat that Democrats had to worry about.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Not even King
As izengabe said, just a rich CEO would have done. Maybe Malpass is that guy, IDK how much money he actually has. The NRSC focused too much on King, Giuliani, and Pataki when they should have gone after some very rich guy. There are plenty in NY.  
[ Parent ]
That's why I mentioned Dick Parsons
the african american fmr CEO of Time Warner and current Chairman of Citigroup who was rumored to have wanted run for Mayor before Bloomberg got rid of term limits.

What the GOP needed was someone of stature to run. On the level of Meg Whitman or Carly Fiona.

While Malpass might have a few bucks to his name I just dont think he meets that criteria of stature. Instead of heavy weights they get sort of rich lightweights like Malpass, Blakeman and the shoot from the hip (to his own foot) Carl Paladino.

I think some blame needs to go to NYS GOP chair Ed Cox who was suppose to come and recruit good candidates and help fix the NY GOP. Instead he completely screwed up the recruitment process in an effort to pad the way for his son to win a congressional seat in LI.

NY Dems should really send Cox a nice gift basket for Christmas! After all he gave them a pass in the Gov & Senate election and lots of fun GOP cat fud to watch in NY-1.

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[ Parent ]
Dont even get me started on Ed Cox
If you want to make Michael Steele look competent, look at Ed Cox. Cox is so bad, even Steele doesn't trust him with money!
[ Parent ]
The sad thing was Cox was brought in because Joseph Mondello was so bad
Mondello (a party hack) basically help destroy the Nassau County GOP so as a reward they put him in charge of the state GOP.

He was the one responsible for getting the local GOP to pick out of district Jim Tedisco over John Faso in NY-20 and to pick Scozzafava over Matt Doheny.

So by my count Mondello cost the GOP 2 house seats.

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[ Parent ]
Just
watched Boxer and Fiorina debate for an hour on TV. Both of them seemed well prepared for the debate and countered each others talking points. Boxer was not running away from her record and neither was Fiorina.

At one point during the debate Fiorina said Boxer was using HP to score cheep political points against her. When the moderators played a question from a former HP employee who is a Republican asking if Fiorina if she stood by her record of sending jobs overseas, Fiorina stood by it and talked about how other states and countries were luring jobs away from California. Boxer then said Fiorina must know a lot about that because according to her, she created jobs in China.

Fiorina was caught flatfooted when the moderators asked if she supported Prop 23, the proposition that would suspend AB-32, California's landmark climate laws. Fiorina then proceeded to talk about how any Federal Climate Bill would supersede that and how Boxer failed to get Cap and Trade through the senate. When the moderators pressed her if she supported it, Fiorina said she hadn't decided yet. Then she basically said AB 32 was a job killer leaving me with the impression Fiorina should of come out in support of Prop 23 instead of saying she was undecided but trying to say she suspending AB 32 might be a good idea.

Boxer addressed that infamous "Call me Senator" video clip and said she had asked the general if he could call her senator and she would call her general instead of "sir" and "ma'am." She then mentioned she called the general asking if she should apologize and the general said no harm was done.

Fiorina justified her opposition to the teacher bill by saying that it wouldn't help and mentioned Sacramento and Washington D.C. were arguing over how the money could be spent. Fiorina also said Boxer was leaving the Central Valley high and dry by failing to use her position as Chair of the EPW to get more water into the Central Valley.

(I could write more, but that would be suited for a diary. But those were some of the more lively moments of the debate.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

So, what do you think the final score was?
Who won?
[ Parent ]
I watched
Obviously, I am biased. I think if you go by the debate law that its an expectations game, Fiorina won big time. She really surprised me. I (and I think most people) expected Boxer to destroy Fiorina. If you were someone with no previous knowledge of the candidates or the election and you watched it, it was pretty much a draw. Both had their moments. At the beginning, both seemed very nervous, which is surprising considering they are both used to speaking in front of large crowds of people.  
[ Parent ]
I do
admit Fiorina was mostly on offense and she was pretty well polished. Though it helps she had more things to attack Boxer with while Boxer could only hammer her on HP, which Fiorina was able to counter pretty quickly.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The low point for her
Was Prop 23 question. She handled it awfully. Just say YES!
[ Parent ]
Along these lines
there was also a Goddard vs. Brewer debate this evening for AZ-GOV.

Did anyone else see it? I only saw the highlights, but Brewer completely embarrassed herself. There was a moment where she was silent for a good 10-15 seconds after she clearly forgot her talking points. It was the kind of thing where someone's performance is so bad, watching it makes you feel uncomfortable. When the topic deviated from immigration, she seemed like she had no idea what was going on.

If this weren't 2010, and Brewer weren't doing everything she could trying to run out the clock by dodging the media, Goddard would be in a great position to win.

20, GOP, NH-02

[ Parent ]
I thought Boxer was competent, but boring; Fiorina forceful, but uneven
I'd say Fiorina won the debate, if only b/c her closing statement was SO much more powerful than Boxer's. I think if she loses, which there's at least a 50/50 chance of, it's largely because she's pro-life. Frankly, I don't think Boxer's counter-attacks were strong enough, and my more liberal roommate actually thought Boxer did a really weak job at tearing down Fiorina's record.

Honestly, I guess I expected a more fiery performance by Boxer. I found her rather dull here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
True
Fiorina won in the emotional department. Hell, I give her props for justifying her pro-life positioning by saying that doctors told her husband's mother to abort him but the mother decided not too at great risk to her health. But I thought Boxer's closing statement was better. Fiorina's was the "I'm mad as hell at the direction of this country and I'm not taking it anymore!" while Boxer's statement drew a powerful contrast between them attacking Fiorina on her HP record and support from polluters and big energy interests.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I agree with you
Boxer's closing statement was superior, IMO. Fiorina got the emotion, but Boxer got in clear attacks and contrasts between the two.  
[ Parent ]
It is *only* because she is pro-life
If Fiorina was even mildly pro-choice she would beat Boxer.  She is far too left for California in a bad year for the Dems.  

Even so I give Fiorina a 40% chance of winning this race.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

[ Parent ]
somehow I doubt that...
Fiorina isn't too far to the right for California just on abortion. Really, there aren't that many issues where she's different from Generic R. People just assume that since she's a business type and a woman she's a moderate because nobody associates those things with being a social con.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
But it is Fiorina's position on abortion
that allows Boxer to paint Fiorina as not a social moderate.  The other issues don't pack the punch as much as this one does.  That's why I said that if Fiorina was even mildly pro-choice (like say Kay Bailey Hutchison or Heather Wilson), this race would be quite different.


38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)
[ Parent ]
it's kind of easy anyway
what other issues is she moderate on? she seems to be a conservative through and through...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The problem for Carly is
California is just too Democratic for even a moderate Republican, let alone a generic Republican, to win barring an epic scandal on the Democrat. I can't remember the last election in California in which more registered Republicans showed up than registered Democrats, and in recent elections, the Democrats' slice of the pie has grown while the Republicans' has shrunk, even at the voting booth. My interpretation of the debate is that Babs and Carly pretty much said things their respective bases like and the overall debate was pretty much a wash, so this race will come down to the independents. I think Boxer pulls it out if she does no worse than about -10% among independents. My advice to Boxer: focus more on state issues that independents care about!

PS: I love seeing her smiling face in the ad!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 9/1 (Afternoon Edition) | 159 comments

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