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SSP Daily Digest: 8/18

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 18, 2010 at 4:16 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: Joe Miller has two things going for him in the Alaska GOP Senate primary: the endorsements of Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. On the other hand, Lisa Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents behind her. That's her cash on hand, based on $300K raised in July and early August. Miller raised only $68K in that span and now has $84K CoH.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA, no stranger to Republican-friendly samples lately, comes up with quite the GOP wipeout in Kansas. They find Republican Rep. Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston in the Senate race, 69-23, and find Sam Brownback leading state Sen. Tom Holland in the gubernatorial race, 67-25. They even find several Dem incumbents losing to GOP challengers in downballot races. It may be worth, noting, however, the disparity in self-described ideology between this sample and the 2008 exit polls: this poll is 49 conservative, 37 moderate, 9 liberal, compared with 2008's 45 moderate, 38 conservative, 16 liberal.

• NV-Sen: With her endorsement percentage starting to trend steeply downward (with last night's losses by Rita Meyer and Clint Didier), Sarah Palin's trying out a new angle, literally. She's backing Sharron Angle in Nevada, saying she'll "actively help" her and that Angle "is putting up with more crap than she deserves." Palin avoided getting involved in the primary, probably in large part because of other family members' support for Danny Tarkanian.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena's out with another look at the big-ticket races in New York, finding the same-old same-old. Kirsten Gillibrand leads Bruce Blakeman 55-28, Joe DioGuardi 54-29, and David Malpass 55-27. DioGuardi is on track to win the GOP Senate primary, leading Blakeman and Malpass 19-8-5. And Andrew Cuomo is even more dominant, leading Rick Lazio 60-26 and Carl Paladino 60-27. Lazio leads Paladino 43-30 in the GOP primary, much closer than previous months. Further down the ballot, they find incumbent Dem comptroller Tom DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 46-28, and Dems leading a generic ballot-type question about the state legislature, 33-27.

• CO-Gov: Dan Maes picked his running mate: former state Rep. and former Dept. of Regulatory Agencies head Tambor Williams. Williams seems to actually be something of a moderate by today's GOP standards, which is an interesting act of ticket-balancing by the wackadoodle Maes (although you have to wonder how "moderate" someone willing to be joined at the hip to Maes can be). Meanwhile, Tom Tancredo is focusing most of his fire on Maes, not on John Hickenlooper, attacking Maes', well, utter lack of qualifications. Tancredo seems to realize that the only path to viability in this election as an indie is reducing Maes to the Alan Schlesinger-style single-digits role. And guess who's throwing up their hands and walking away? The RGA, which according to several local Republicans, has confirmed it won't be spending money in Colorado.

• ID-Gov, ID-01: We've gotten an inkling that the Idaho gubernatorial race (where GOP incumbent Butch Otter was elected with lackluster numbers in 2006) was possibly a real race, and these poll numbers seem to confirm it. I don't know whether to call this a Republican poll (it's taken by a local pollster who usually works for Republicans, Greg Strimple, on behalf of the Idaho Hospital Association) or an independent one, but either way, it's not good news for the GOP. Otter leads Dem Keith Allred by only 47-36. Also good news: that Raul Labrador internal poll that had him losing by double digits was actually pretty optimistic, on his part. This sample sees Dem Walt Minnick beating Labrador by a startling 52-29 margin. Maybe all that chatter about the NRCC moving to write off this seat has some real roots.

• VT-Gov: Lone Republican Brian Dubie is the fundraising leader in the decidedly small-dollar gubernatorial race in Vermont. Dubie has raised the most over the course of the campaign (slightly more than $1 million). (Maybe if Meg Whitman can't win in California, she should consider moving to Vermont and buying the gubernatorial race here. In fact, maybe she should just consider buying the entire state of Vermont, which would still be cheaper than buying the gubernatorial race in California.) The Dems are all closely bunched, with Peter Shumlin and Deb Markowitz more or less tied for most raised. But all five major Dems are low on cash, each reporting less than $100K CoH (Matt Dunne has the most, at $83K). For some reason, the article doesn't tell us Dubie's CoH.

• GA-08: GOP state Rep. Austin Scott (following hot on the heels of fellow legislator and GA-02 candidate Mike Keown's internal poll release) is out with an internal showing a competitive race against Rep. Jim Marshall. Marshall leads Scott 44-39 in the poll conducted in late July by American Viewpoint.

• MI-01: This has the potential to mightily reshuffle things in the open seat race in the 1st... or it could turn out to be so much wind in sails, as promises of massive self-funding usually are. Random teabagger and indie candidate Glenn Wilson is promising to spend $2 million of his own money in order to defeat Gary McDowell and Dan Benishek, the Dem and GOP nominees. In this rural seat with dirt-cheap media markets, that could go a long way toward blanketing the airwaves... but without the organizational backing that the party apparatuses provide, that seems like it still might not translate into actual votes.

• TN-08: Humble farmer/gospel singer and, in his spare time, director of Fight Club, Stephen Fincher is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group that gives him a lead over Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron in this open seat race. He claims a 47-37 lead, with conservative indie Donn James at 5, in a poll taken immediately post-primary. Herron, who avoided much trouble in the primary and was able to bank a lot of money, is already hitting Fincher with TV ads, though.

• RGA: One nice thing about the post-Citizens United universe is that it lets us see everything in the open that we've only just suspected in the past. Case in point: Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (the Fox News and WSJ parent corporation) just gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association. Insert obvious snarky comment about "Fair and Balanced" here.

• Rasmussen:
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 40%, Rand Paul (R) 49%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 40%, John Kasich (R) 48%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 8/18
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SSP Daily Digest: 8/18 | 112 comments
FL-25: Wow, GOP candidate David Riviera is quite..um..interesting.
Check this out: http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

I guess Joe Garcia has a good chance at this seat after all.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Call Dale Peterson
If I was his primary opponent, I would call Dale Peterson and his pickup truck to talk about watching my back while I am driving around.  Such a situation would lead to a hilarious ad for sure.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Boy this is a weird one...
If you get down into this, it's hard to say what's going on here. There's repeat incidents of domestic violence at the center of it, but possibly not involving this David Rivera (or it might be the same one).

Hopefully Kos front paging it will make the media uncover what's really going on.  

[ Parent ]
Jesus
fucking Christ. You know your regular crooked politician would pay someone to do something like this. Not do it yourself!

Before the truck could make it to the US post office, however, a car driven by David M. Rivera struck it, forcing the truck to the shoulder of the Palmetto expressway right in the middle of evening traffic ten minutes before its deadline to get to the post office, 6 o'clock.


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Well HOLY SHIT
People need to read that link, it's too good for me to paraphrase.  This is absolutely my number 4 House seat on our list of offense now.  If it was a better year for us, this would be in the bag actually.  (Ive never been high on IL-6 although I do think PA-6 could be a win if Trivedi attacks Gerlach properly and paints him as a typical DC politician always trying to find a promotion.)

And what makes that so great is that the car issue immediately will be followed up by the fliers since they're so interconnected.  Joe Garcia is going to do a minute long attack ad on this I hope.

[ Parent ]
I don't think anyone is high on IL-06
Roskam won convincingly in 2008 despite Obama coattails is a some dude who had $3k on hand at the end of June.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
typing fail
that should be two separate sentences and say, "Roskam's opponent is a some dude..."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Meant IL-10

[ Parent ]
Um, ALL the nonpartisan House race rankings rate IL-10 as HIGHLY LIKELY to flip......
The "category-based" ratings by Cook and Rothenberg call IL-10 a "tossup," this even as they have too few Dem-held seats rated as "tossups" for the GOP to flip the House despite these two calling House control a tossup.  So they obviously think IL-10 is an extraordinarily tough hold for the GOP.

And the "ranking-based" ratings by Cillizza and Tim Sahd at National Journal and the MSNBC First Read guys all have IL-10 in the Top 15 or 20 for likeihood of flipping.

Regarding FL-25, I've felt good about this one for many weeks, but the nonpartisan analysts all rate it as a distant 5th or even 6th (behind Ami Bera's challenge of Dan Lungren in CA-03) behind the Top 4 which always includes IL-10.

I understand and share the concern that Seals is a two-time loser, especially in 2008, but what I've read says that Kirk by all accounts was a GREAT campaigner in his House district (I know, hard to believe now) and ran as great a campaign as ever in 2008.

I think we should be very disappointed if Seals doesn't win this time, because the expectation of his pulling it out is very reasonable.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I have no idea what to say about this
Just crazy.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
It will be very interesting to see how this develops

[ Parent ]
ID-GOV/01: I'm reading the comments at the link and they're illuminating.
I usually don't read online newspaper comments due to the fact that they're likely spammers from freerepublic and such, but these ones appear legit and show why Otter and Labrador aren't doing too well.

Is Labrador completely unable to discuss anything without mentioning Obama, Pelosi or Reid? For goodness sake, come up with some new talking points! I am sick and tired of hearing about Pelosi. I want to hear what Labrador has to say about anything he proposes, believes in...anything but this constant scat about Pelosi!

GOP doesn't even seem to know where they are

I just got a letter from the Ada County Republicans asking me to sponsor their "Harvest Roundup"...complete with photos of John Wayne and "The Rifelman" and passages about our "God given inalienable rights" and how they need "patriots like you" to "Take Back America".
The return address on the envelope was 1234 Main Street, Anytown, USA 99222. What the...? Perhaps with all their focus on Obama, Reid and Pelosi, they have forgotten about Idaho? I think Otter and Labrador are both suffering from a lack of focus from the GOP and the influence of fringe elements in the party. They need to get back to basics and stop with all this nonsense.

Just another example of how Otter has abandoned Idaho to concentrate on the national issues over which he has one voice just like the rest of us. He's lost touch with Idaho citizens who are neither GOP nor Dems but independent voters concerned about Idaho issues not national issues. We need solutions not GOP rhetoric to the problems facing every day Idaho citizens.

Tip O'Neill continues to be right about how "All politics is local."  Similar to PA-12, people could care less about Pelosi in this economy.  They just want to know what Labrador stands for, not what he's against.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

For the love of god
Let this happen nationally when it comes down to the final weeks.  If the GOP wises up and starts offering policies, then it appears we are already ready to hit them back with, thanks you did that all already and this is where you got us with Bush as President.

I just read in the paper today that Tom Emmer at a debate said that we need to stop looking backward and trying to find someone to blame for our budget mess and instead look towards the future.  He also said he'd be coming out with his budget proposal at a later date where he manages to cut $6 billion in spending by "reforming government" and making it more efficient.  Mmmmmmmhhhhhhmmmmmmm.......

[ Parent ]
Right
all Tom Emmer needs to do is wave that magic wand and $6 billion in spending will instantly disappear. Seriously, why didn't anyone think of this before?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I would put too much hope in Idaho
Last time around polls showed Otter within the margin of error or tied with the Democratic candidate; and in the end he won by over ten points. The fact is, Idaho is so Republican and the Democratic party so weak, (though getting stronger again), that you can pretty much add ten points to the GOP's position.
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: New Ad Out by Patriot Majority
This one hits her for justifying the privatization of Social Security by saying: "I've been studying.  Chile has done this."  What she didn't know that it was instituted in 1981 under Pinochet and was such a bad system, not even Pinochet's army opted to partake in it.

What do you think of this?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Angle just keeps giving ammo
That's a good ad, more of Angle's own words used against her.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
[ Parent ]
I'm
glad she's digging in her heels and not changing her positions. More fun for Harry Reid.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
That Kansas Poll
I'm calling shenanigans on the SUSA poll. That sample is all kinds of whack. This number jumped out at me even more than the conservative/moderate/liberal split: look at Kansans' supposed views of the Tea Party.

A whopping 48% of Kansans like the Tea Party? Just 22% of Kansans don't like the people calling the President Hitler? Okaaaay.

More fun with those crosstabs: apparently, Sam Brownback is going to win a quarter of the Democratic vote. Kansas Democrats, who, being a relatively small part of the KS electorate are much further left of center relative to the state than they are elsewhere....and a hardcore conservative like Brownback gets a quarter of them? No. Just no. Meanwhile, only 6% of Republicans are jumping ship from the crazy-eyed conservative candidate? You've gotta be friggin' kidding me. Oh--and once again, SUSA "proves" that young people hate Democrats.

I'm sorry, I know everyone says SUSA is a good pollster. Their toplines are accurate, yada yada. But how exactly (other than blind luck) do you get accurate toplines when your samples are just off the wall?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

the problem is
that only R2K is left as a national pollster people approve of. an mason-dixon

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Shenanigans
Please tell me this is what you had in mind.  (Sorry, had to post the link since I don't know how to imbed video)

http://www.southparkstudios.co...

I love South Park.

[ Parent ]
Variance
10 straight heads followed by 10 straight tails may seem unlikely. But the topline result works there. Elementary statistics.
[ Parent ]
Kansas Treasurer
What do you think about the State Treasurer numbers?  Dennis McKinney has raised much more money than his competitor, Ron Estes.  Estes doesn't seem to have a website.  He is the Sedgwick County Treasurer and the county is the second largest county in the state and is where Wichita is located.  I wonder what Estes' strategy is.  Could he be relying almost solely on Kansas being a Republican state and this being a GOP favoring year?  The numbers for the race (if close to reality) show that maybe it is not so much who the candidate is but what the external factors are.  I asked about this race along with other downballot Kansas state races the night of its primary.  (I went on vacation and didn't see your reply until recently.)  You suggested the Democrats would be competitive.  This poll shows otherwise.  The crosstabs should be taken with a grain of salt but, like you say, SUSA is one of the best pollsters so I would not disregard its toplines.  If the Republicans can at least be decently competitive in the money chase, I can see these results mostly holding up with possibly some erosion in the Republican numbers.  Estes, with his campaign infrastructure problems, doesn't seem poised to do nearly as well as this poll forecasts but various other factors could carry him to victory.
[ Parent ]
RGA
As a 527 involved in state elections, RGA (and DGA) always could and did take direct corporate contributions.
Tancredo offers to drop out of CO Gov
...If Maes does, and Maes turned down the offer. http://www.politico.com/news/s...
Sorry GOPVoter, Colorado is just going to be a big old clusterfuck for you guys
Not that I'm complaining on my end ;)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Let's get Markey over the finish line
so we can draw her some pretty looking district lines!
[ Parent ]
Not much prettier
You can't really get much prettier without endangering Salazar.  Theoretically, you could draw some of Douglas County north into the 1st, put some of the 1st into the 7th, and thereby free the 6th to take in some of the thinly populated Eastern Plains.  You'd give more of Boulder County to Markey in exchange, but the shift wouldn't be extreme population-wise.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Actually it'd be pretty easy
to make her seat safer; if you just cut all the hardcore, 75% plains areas and leave Larimer, Weld, and parts of Boulder + suburban Adams it becomes a pretty Democratic leaning seat. Tancredo seats drops some Democratic leaning/trending suburbs and takes up all the rural slack. Very little change up at all really.  
[ Parent ]
Plains too small
Even if she lost virtually the entire Eastern plains, that's hardly 20% of the district and most of that is Ft. Morgan alone.  As for the 6th, we're doing better in Douglas and little bits of Arapahoe, yes (it's my parents' district and my Mom has done yeo-woman's work to this effect), but what Dem leaning suburbs are you thinking about?  Surely not Parker (my parents' home where we almost always do not field a competitor against truly lame State Rep. Mike May, Centennial, Highlands Ranch, Foxfield, Lone Tree, or anything else around those parts.  Centennial might get there in a few years, but not now.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I'm just looking at the steady leftward shift in that
district that saw it tighten to 52-46 in 2008.

Really you just aren't seeing how simple and elegant a shift around it is; those plains counties may only be, say 10-15% of the population, but you take those solidly, consistently 70% Republican areas away, and replace them with 55-45 Democratic leaning suburbs, and suddenly you make Markey's life a lot easier while not doing anything to endanger Polis or Perlmutter.  

[ Parent ]
I actually did this on DRA
But it was before the partisan data came out.  I'd always assumed I made Markey's life easier, but not markedly so. In total, the Plains counties are about 50,000 people with Morgan Co. adding another 27,000 or so.  Not all of that can come from Boulder Co. (though giving away Lyons and Nederland alone would drive any GOPer to drink) though, unless we push most of the city into it.  I avoided that since a random Dem could win without it, but probably not a solid progressive (so I kept Downtown/Pearl St./CU in the 2nd and pushed the rest out to the 4th).

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
is partisan data out
for colorado?

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Not yet
I believe they're waiting for the new Census Data to come out before updating the app with more partisan data.


20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Just did it on DRA
All of the eastern Plains counties, including Morgan and Logan, are just under 120,000. Considering they almost voted 70-30 for McCain and can easily be replaced by 55-45 suburbs in Adams County or 65%+ in Boulder County, this would undoubtedly make Markey safer. Not a whole lot, but just replacing it with Adams makes it somewhere around a 55% Obama district. Granted, Obama did well in Colorado, but on the other hand Larimer and Weld are both rapidly growing and rapidly bluing (especially Larimer). CO-04 shifted blue QUITE a lot between '04 and '08.
[ Parent ]
Thank you,
That's exactly where I was coming from. Exactly what I meant. And what's more Larimer and Weld have been trending steadily since 2000, shifting almost 5 points to the left between Gore and Kerry, and another 6 points to Obama.
[ Parent ]
Who was the poor soul who got the Eastern Plains?
Hopefully, you were able to give most of the nasty to Coffman? And, yes, Larimer, especially, is moving left, but it isn't dominant enough. Weld's move, I think is more suspect and it, I think, is the lynchpin of the district.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Yup, to CO-06
There will always be the question of how real the gains that Obama made in 2008 were. That being said, Larimer went from a 7500 vote margin (52-47) for Bush in '04 to a 16000 vote margin (54-44) for Obama. Meanwhile, Weld went from a 24000 margin (63-36) for Bush to a 9000 vote margin (53-46) for Obama. Larimer in '08 had 60,000 more voters than Weld.

Basically, if you can assume that Larimer+Weld would produce a roughly even result (even though the Obama margin would've been +7000) or even somewhat under that, Longmont and the addition of Adams would make it considerably safer

[ Parent ]
Oh, Adams!
Now I see the Democratic votes just pouring in!  I couldn't imagine putting most of Adams in on my map since it's the eastern anchor of the 7th and I couldn't figure out where else the 7th could go.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
CO-Gov. So happy to see those 2 guys digging in their heels,
and that common sense there is remaining at bay.
It's kind of like children playing a staring contest. Don't blink guys!
[ Parent ]
has tancredo chosen a running mate?
if not, would he need to and any idea whom it would be?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
PA-Gov
If Rasmussen has it at 48-38 Corbett, I'm ecstatic.  Whether this is true or biased, its still within the margin that will be needed to save house seats and possibly help Sestak.  I'd have thought Corbett would be up much, much more to be honest.
Is that really a change?
I think we have seen the same numbers within the margin of error for awhile now.  With leaners, Corbett is up 50 to 39.  The PPP poll is more damning for Onorato though.  48 to 35 is terrible.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Quinn in 3rd place with indys in IL-Gov
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...
The Green Party candidate is 5 points ahead of him with indys.  
Sigh.......
Hynes, my friend, I miss you. This is at least lean R, if not likely. I really do not want a nut like Brady but to be honest at this point Sarah freaking Palin would be able to beat Quinn.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Likely R? Uh, no.
I go to school in Illinois (IL-01). It is a very Democratic state. I don't mean to claim Quinn is a sure win but he will not lose by double digits. Even Lean R is generous to Brady. You're being too pessimistic if you think Quinn won't mount a comeback. The question is just whether it's too little too late.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think
This race is very similar to NJ 2009. An independent (ok, Green party) candidate polls well because both candidates nuke each other and become extremely unpopular. In the end, the Rep wins because voters decide they want to get rid of the Dem with approval ratings in the 20's.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe, though Rich Whitney has a better track record than Chris Daggett
I think, given the state's strong Democratic lean, bad environment or not, it's pretty tough to rank IL-Gov in the Likely GOP column - in my book, that means a projected 10-20% win by the Republican. To be fair, it's hard for me to fathom a scenario where Pat Quinn prevails - he'd have to run a sterling, uber-negative campaign vs. Bill Brady, and clobber the guy come debate time. He'd also have to hope no further skeletons fall from the closet of Alexi Giannoulias.

Right now, I see IL-Gov as...

Democrat - 43%
GOP - 30%
Independent - 27%

Quinn - 80/3/33 = 44%
Brady - 13/90/50 = 47%
Whitney - 7/7/17 = 9%

Don't take solace in the chance that Whitney fizzles out - I suspect Indies would either break Brady or just stay home.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
HAs
He ever been elected to something before, or is he rich or something?  
[ Parent ]
He
was a serious contender in 06, getting ten percent of the vote. The hippies love him. Although it is worth pointing out that his base is in Carbondale and Quinn's running mate (my sis's former law profesor) is also from there.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I
was rash and a bit stupid putting likely R, I take that back but I still think lean R is appropriate. It may tighten but I just do not see Quinn making a comeback. I did a few months ago but it is clear to me it will be extremely difficult and I do not see it happening.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm with you there
I would put it at Toss-up/Tilt R. Quinn will fight back, just like Corzine did, but in the end, with an approval rating below 30%, its very hard to get re-elected.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
and I think Brady will get elected but it is worth pointing out that Brady is not as good of candidate that Christie was. Christie is fairly moderate and well liked. Brady is not. All the same I think the environment is worse for us and I think with Blago and everything else people in Ill are just pissed off more than they have been in awhile. That is what my sister tells me anyway. I still think Alexi may eek out a win but it will be close. Fuck the early primary, we could have gotten Hynes and it would have made this a slam dunk assuming you guys still picked Brady. What a stupid system.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thats true
Christie was also from a very Dem part of the state, from what I understand, which helped him out a lot. Christie was also well-known and very popular before he announced he was running. Brady was, and is, neither.  
[ Parent ]
Christie was from Mendham in Morris County
one of the most Republican parts of the state. His running mate, Kim Guadagno, was from Monmouth County in Central Jersey, which used to be more Democratic but trended Republican over the course of this decade and now has a slight Republican lean. However, Monmouth is a pretty big county and Christie absolutely killed it there. Corzine and his running mate were both from North Jersey, which arguably helped him win Bergen County but also caused him to underperform in South Jersey.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not too much to worry about
Obama cans till drive turnout in Chicago, and that can carry statewide candidates.

The poll also leaves lots of room for interpretation.  Both Quinn and Brady have 20-something % approval, its just Brady's more unknown.  It will be easier to turn Bradys unknown into unfavorable than it will to be favorable IMO simply because people are unhappy with EVERYONE this cycle.

I also think the trend of Indies being half Dem but 1/6th Repub gives Quinn room to grow also.

And my LOL moment of this poll, its 2008 presidential comparison.  In 2008, IL voted 61.8% Obama, 36.9% McCain and 1.3% other.  This sample is 51% Obama, 41% McCain and 8% Other/Unknown.  I'm willing to tolerate the Obama and McCain, but 8% Other/Unknown?  How could people in Illinois not remember, they either voted for their native son or didnt.  That'd be like 10% of people in Florida not remembering who they voted for (Bush/Gore) in 2000 when asked in 2002.

Even more hillarious, Whitney gets 18% support from the Other/Unknon group, but that group has a 0%, yes 0%, favorable of Whitney. (19% is unfavorable and 81% is unsure).

Since clearly this 8% in Illinois is lying, why should we trust their tales to PPP of who they will vote for?  

[ Parent ]
The 2008 electorate isnt going to be the same in 2010

[ Parent ]
jeez really
I didn't know that.  Did you even read my post?
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen
This may be something, or this may be nothing. Former WWE Wrestler Lance Cade died last week of heart failure, attributed to what most people think was an addiction to steroids and/or pain meds.

http://pwtorch.com/artman2/pub...

Unfortunately, wrestling sites don't offer a full breakdown of the comments, but this is the most complete one I could find. McMahon says she "may have met him (Cade) once", but doesn't think the WWE is responsible for the death of the wrestler. For what it's worth, I'm seeing a lot of people in the wrestling world turning on McMahon, and you would think that would be her biggest base.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Rasmussen and Leaners
What was up with Rasmussen publishing alternative polls with leaners included? With leaners, Sharron Angle beats Reid by 2 points, while John Kasich leads in Ohio against Strickland by 10!
Leaners
The leaners thing is interesting.  The Pennsylvania races included leaners and those numbers did not make much of a difference.  Seeing Rasmussen's numbers mirror PPP's numbers in Pennsylvania, I am curious what is going on.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Well,
It IS Rasmussen, so what do YOU think is going on?
[ Parent ]
They did this in 2008, too, and maybe even in 2006 although I don't remember for sure that far back......
This isn't new, nor is it unconventional.  It's a little early to push leaners like this, and it's more common in Presidential polling and less so in Senate and Governor's races, but it's not unprecedented.

I don't doubt Scotty partly is trying to produce even more GOP-friendly numbers with this, but this is a little more ambiguous as a skewing tactic than many of his obvious ones.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
LA-Sen
Seems like Traylor is throwing everything he can at Vitter. He has a new radio ad that sums up everything about his "record" on family values

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Will it work?  

Nope
Traylor just doesn't have enough money, time, and as GOPVOTER points out, he's from the wrong part of the state.

Too bad though.  

[ Parent ]
The fact that his personal life may be as messy as Vitter's isn't helping either
If Trayor entered the race in May and had a squeaky clean personal life (none of this home wrecking with step relatives stuff) then maybe he'd be competitive.  As things stand I'll guess he'll get between 20%-25% of the vote.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
Traylor is unimportant in terms of actually winning. The question is whether or not Traylor can make Vitter's personal life come to light enough for Vitter to become radioactive. Remember, voters have short memories - it wouldn't be bad for someone other then a Democrat to throw some stuff at Vitter.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
This is what I've been hoping for
Trayor's earning some good media attention from this so my guess is yes, it hurts Vitter a bit.  Of course, he has a lot of room for error so this may not make too much of a difference, but I think/ really hope that this will soften him a bit.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Standard disclaimer: I'm likely to be volunteering for Melancon


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Question
If you don't mind me asking, do you support Richmond in the LA-02 dem primary after his skeletons came pouring out his closet this week?  
[ Parent ]
That's a fair question
The truth is that I've always been neutral in the primary and am remaining so, especially since I once again am registered to vote in California.  Also, there's a fair chance I may be working with both campaigns in the event of a run-off to set up some kind of debate/ forum at Tulane, so I don't want to be seen as taking sides or bashing one of the candidates, even semi-anonymously on the internet.  

I know that's more of a non-answer, but that's pretty much where I am right now.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Also, I'm pretty exhausted after CA SD-15
I've been putting in a lot of time for Laird since May (and was asked not to talk about the race online without campaign permission, so I haven't mentioned it until now) so I'll completely sit out the primary.  If someone asks me to volunteer for either candidate in the next week I'm probably going to scream.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Oh
Didn't know you were back in CA. That race may get pretty interesting I think. Green now has a lot more CoH than Lafonta, and he is not scared of attacking Richmond like LaFonta is. Lafonta has good grassroots support, and a surprisingly strong presence in Richmond's district. I think that will be a very, very interesting primary night.  
[ Parent ]
I changed in May to vote for Laird
I'm now a permanent absentee.  But I'm back in New Orleans tomorrow, which I'm really excited about.

Btw where did you find Green's CoH?  I've been looking all over for pre-primary money numbers.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
The FEC website
It doesn't work when you link, so I'll tell you what to do: Go to fec.gov, click the big US Map on the front, then click on LA, then click the 2nd district. Its easiest if you just click on the lake.  
[ Parent ]
TN-8: The Jackson Sun put Fincher's internal poll on front page
The Jackson Sun put Fincher's internal on the front page as a lead story beneath the fold. Do other city papers do this? It seems to cross the line of objective reporting, but perhaps this is becoming acceptable in modern political reporting in the newspaper industry? I have seen papers report internals within a larger story, but never as the story.  

Democrat: TN-8
What's this paper's editorial stance? If not GOP-leaning or conservative-leaning, I would say...
...it's just local reporters who don't think about these things.  I've never heard of Jackson, Tennessee, so it must be truly a small-town paper, and their news judgments are not going to be the same quality as bigger publications, nor are they as politically sensitive since almost all the news they cover is apolitical local stuff.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
i think its around
60,000 people. its in blackburns district

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Not Blackburn's District, Tanner's
Jackson, according to Wikipedia, is the largest city that is completely within Tennessee's Eighth Congressional District.  The only other newspapers that would have much coverage in the district are ones in Clarksville (seems to be a suburb of Nashville and its paper has a lower circulation than the one in Jackson), Memphis, and Nashville.  In each of these cities, however, a significant portion of media coverage in them would be devoted to other districts.
[ Parent ]
Clarksville
Clarksville is a military town adjacent to Fort Campbell, Kentucky.
[ Parent ]
Its a Gannett owned paper, editorial stance "middle of the road"
The Jackson Sun is owned by Gannett, who also owns the Nashville Tennessean. It has a "middle of the road" editorial slant, as it usually endorses Democrats, but keeps its editorials somewhat friendly to the conservative views of its readership. It almost assuredly has the largest distribution and readership in the 8th.

Jackson is a decent sized city for Tennessee and the South, around 65,000, maybe pushing 70,000 when the census is reported. Its the media, commercial, medical, and industrial hub for all of rural West Tennessee outside of Memphis, which encompasses most of the 8th.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Traylor nearly doubles fundraising in 3 days
http://www.politico.com/news/s...
To a whopping 72k.  
RI Sen appointments: Saeplcovits
Yesterday you mentioned Lincoln Almonds as a possible appointment to the Senate if Chafee wins, and Reed is appointed Secretary of Defense or Secretary of State. I found another reason (probably one you already knew, just didn't think important) that would make that seem like a likely choice: Almonds appointed Chafee to the Senate. I wonder if that would be the first time where a Senator who was appointed to the sen appointed the gov who appointed him to the sen.  
Almond
Almond would be an interesting appointment.  I assume he would caucus as a Republican so maybe Chafee would not consider him.  Additionally, such a calculation would throw Reed out of the mix for an appointment.

On a side note, I did not know that Rhode Island has had a Republican Governor for 20 out of the last 24 years.  Kind of shocking actually.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
eh, look at california
we are not much better

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts and Connecticut also have long GOP streaks too
MA had 16 years of Republican governors before Deval Patrick, and CT has had a GOP governor for at least that long, if not 20. Vermont has also had long stretches of Yankee Republicans in charge--you might say the last remnants of a dying species.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
VT
Has also elected only 1 Dem senator-ever.  
[ Parent ]
And they will continue re-electing him until Judgement Day
Most Secure Jobs in the World:
1. Dalai Lama
2. Pat Leahy
3. Queen of England

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
the pope
is probably number 4.  but who knows, tea partiers might attack the british like the real ones did, and end up overthrowing the queen.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Come now
That's just because their other Senator right now is technically a socialist, lol. And before that it was Jim Jeffords.  
[ Parent ]
Chafee
Would probably consider Republicans and Democrats that were moderate. Almonds is very moderate, and appointed Chafee, so Chafee could feel he owes him. I think I also just found the reason to support Chafee over Caprio.
[ Parent ]
Caprio is a dick
and while more moderate than Chafee, still very liberal. I assume you would vote for either Moffitt or Robitaille if you lived here though.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It would depend
With Reed a potential for a cabinet position, if it was close between Chafee and Caprio, with Robitaille way behind, I'd vote Chafee for Senate appointments.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
Weird how we agree on a candidate. I'm not sure if Chafee would appoint an R since he said his 2006 loss was good for the country, but I could live with Almond as long as he didn't get beaten over the head by Mitch McConnell.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
But he'd probably appoint a placeholder or moderate R, giving us a Republican for a little while. Would be interesting to see what he'd do if his appointment would tip balance of power. Also interesting if the Republican party nominated a moderate, pro-choice woman, or even the mayor of Warwick (Can't remember his name, but I know he's close to Chafee...) and Dems nominated Langevin, if SBA List would endorse him and EMILY'S List the Republican (esp. if it was a woman, I could see that happening).
[ Parent ]
EMILY's List is a Democratic PAC
I beleive they only endorse pro-choice Democratic women, while the SBA list helps pro-life women on both sides of the aisle (Kathy Dahlkemper pre-HCR, for instance, was an SBA Dem.) So they would probably both sit this one out.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Scott Avedisian
is the mayor of Warwick. Chafee was mayor of Warwick before Avedisian and Avedisian is moderate so yes, they are close. But Chafee would probably prefer Democratic control of the Senate. However RI has no moderate, pro-choice woman who is high profile enough to beat Langevin (and as MassGOP astutely noted, EMILY's List does not endorse Republicans; there is an organization called the WISH List which endorses pro-choice Republicans). Avedisian is probably high profile and moderate enough to be a good candidate, but he has been mayor for a while now and you'd think if he wanted to move up that badly he would have run against Langevin by now. Especially this year since it's such a Republican year.

Another possibility is Cranston mayor Allan Fung. It's possible he's ambitious (he just got elected in 2008 so the fact that he hasn't challenged Langevin doesn't mean he doesn't want to move up). And I think he has a somewhat moderate profile, plus he's relatively young and an ethnic minority. I wonder how he got along with former Cranston mayor Steve Laffey when Laffey was mayor and Fung was councilman. If they didn't get along so well, maybe Laffey would try to teabag Fung in a primary. Perhaps that is wishful thinking for Dems, but this entire scenario is wishful thinking for Reps in the first place. :P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Our last D governor
was Bruce Sundlun. He lost to Myrth York in the primary in 1994 and she went on to lose to Almond, because she is like, physically incapable of winning an election. She lost two gubernatorial races for us, and it's probably her fault Carcieri is in office. I really hate her. Chafee probably hates her too. York beat Sheldon Whitehouse in the 2002 gubernatorial primary, and that freed him up to run against Chafee in 2006. If Whitehouse had beat York in 2002, he might have won the general, meaning that Chafee would have a weaker opponent in 2006. So, I guess in a twisted sort of way, we can thank Myrth York for the Dem senate majority in 2006. Wow, that was confusing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sundlun
If I am correct, Sundlun was the last Governor to serve a two year term before the current four year terms came into effect.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Yup
And he was Jewish! The only Jewish governor in the US at the time he served. Right now I believe we have three (Lingle HI, Rendell PA, Markell DE), but it seems likely that Markell will be the only one left since Lingle and Rendell are term limited.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
D'oh
I did know that Almond was governor at the time John Chafee died but I wasn't even thinking about that. good point.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Portman campaign an audition for VP?
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...
They could do worse than Portman. If he really is trying to prove himself as a strong candidate for VP, he's doing a damn good job.  
plus he could certainly help with fl
jewish voters and the lieberman effect

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
wait actually
is he jewish? i thought he was...

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Methodist according to Wikipedia


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Ah, now I see
You must have gotten misled by actress Natalie Portman being Jewish...:P

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
actually
the sf bay area jewish magazine had an article last week about the jewish congresspeople in danger of losing (giffords, adler, klein) and those that would/could be elected (blumenthal, PORTMAN). guess they screwed up with portman and didn't fact check.

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Crazy


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
Why do you say that?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Truth PAC
Are they a Dem, Repub, or non-partisan organization? Does anyone know anything about them?  
Looks to be bi-partisan
or, rather, non-partisan.  There's some indication from their opponents that they may be tied to the horse racing industry since the new gambling laws Strickland is pushing in Ohio (with the help of long time politico Charlie Luken) allow for slots at the tracks, which, apparently, the horse-racing industry doesn't want (especially the horse racing industry in Kentucky and W. Va).  See http://blog.cleveland.com/metr...  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Then I guess its difficult to tell if they are trying to help Cao or one of the Democrats in LA-02 with their attacks on Cedric Richmond: http://therealcedricrichmond.com/
If I had to guess, I'd say it is to help Dem candidate Gary Johnson, who has not been shy about attacking Richmond. The other candidate who has been attacking Richmond is Eugene Green, but, as Jefferon's Chief of Staff (in the bad years, 2006-08), I think he'd avoid tying Richmond to Jefferson.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 8/18 | 112 comments

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