The degree in which this sample is willing to split the ticket

gives a little bit of confidence to Barnes' ability to seal the deal.  It seems like his brand is running significantly better than Generic D, which means $1million spent there will be a lot more useful than $1million spent in Michigan.

If this scandal were just an issue of unpaid taxes or something, it wouldn't be getting much traction.  However, the candidate's about to go into insolvency, which is a significantly greater issue that hurts Deal a lot.  This is almost reminiscent of what happened to Inglis, and it seems like the voters have reacted pretty badly to it.  Whether this is the nadir of his support or just the beginning of a slippery slope is hard to tell right now, but it's safe to say that Georgia Gov suddenly has become one of our better pickup opportunities.

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by: isentrope @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:33:32 PM UTC

Barnes

He's definitely running as a Conservative Democrat, which is helping him out. He's got his metro base, but he's also worked Rural Georgia very hard, especially Middle and South GA. He's been speaking directly to teachers, and he's always been a friend to gun owners and other vital groups needed to win in Georgia.

He's also a very likable guy in person. The only thing the GOP can really hit him on is losing in 2002.

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by: RuralDem @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:54:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This race is a bellwether for the size of the wave because...

...if Barnes loses, it really means anything goes for Republicans this year as far as voters are concerned.  I would predict Deal's personal baggage to be fatal to any candidate for any office in any state in any year.  Not against a similarly flawed opponent, but Barnes is a strong opponent whose only "flaw" is having a "D" next to his name in a year when swing voters don't like that letter.

There are circumstances where extreme financial hardship clearly would be forgiven by voters, such as where extreme medical expenses from severe illnesses or injury causes a family's downfall--in other words, something bad happened that's clearly not your fault.  But Deal's problems seem to come from taking risks that didn't pan out.

This is one of those races where if Deal survives this and wins, I'll just shake my head in disbelief at how bad a night it really is.  Republicans with problems on the scale of Deal's didn't win in 1994.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:33:43 PM UTC

Here's hoping...

Here's hoping that Deal doesn't agree to a switcheroo with Handel and bails.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:42:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can't

Too late for that.

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by: RuralDem @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:44:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's good to know

nm

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:46:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno

I don't think Handel would be any stronger. She'd probably run a lot worse in the rural areas.  

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by: jwaalk @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:49:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But Georgia wasn't really a swing state...

Not until Obama decided to put it in play in 2008, and he still couldn't win. It seems outside Metro Atlanta, there isn't much Dem strength left in the state. Perhaps this really will change with demographics, but it seems not yet.

If Barnes loses, I think it's more of a sign at how Georgia has "completed the shift" to "Red State-hood" than of what's happening nationwide. And then again, Barnes can still win... After all, his numbers are now rising!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 18:49:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree, don't think a Deal victory

is fatalistic for dems in general throughout the country, that might be the case if this were a real bellweather state, but Vitter winning in LA wouldn't portend a great disaster for dems either.

Barnes has a shot here, but if he loses it won't have any greater significance.

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by: Davidsfr @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:03:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would say there is (maybe was) some growing Democratic strength

in southwest Georgia and the Savannah area. The easiest way to see this is the change in the presidential vote in the 2nd and 12th CDs.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:07:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know Georgia is clearly a red state, but I am assuming Deal's favorables...

...tank from his financial calamity.

Now, if his favorables stay good, then maybe I'm misjudging how voters's view Deal's troubles, either in judgment or importance or both.

But I guess what I had in my head that I didn't type in my first comment is I figure he's going to become personally unpopular from all this.  And therefore if he still wins, that tells us it's a worse night than I imagine.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:10:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nope

Democrats are still very strong locally in Middle and South GA.

The party itself is not strong though. One big criticism about the state party is that they're not doing enough in Middle and South GA to build on the local success.

That's the one thing we have that Republicans have had a difficult, and in many areas, impossible, area crack. These Democratic County Commissioners, Coroners, Tax Commissioner, Superior Court Clerks, etc., could be viable candidates for our legislative seats or higher office down the road.

But most of this success is individual as the county parties are non-existent or simply too small to do anything.

Which, considering the party held power for over 100 years, it's not hard to understand why things are going so bad for us. We never had competition in many areas.

Anyway, my point is that there's Democratic strength, it's just not being used in the way that it could.

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by: RuralDem @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:50:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm hoping for a SC-GA-FL-TX Dem sweep to ease the pain

of whatever bad news there is on Nov. 2.

If it does happen, you heard it here first  ;)

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:05:07 PM UTC

Hah

That would be pretty incredible, indeed.

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by: James L. @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:07:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't put SC in that group al all......

Haley is, indeed, a crazy teabagger, but she's one without baggage if you don't believe the infidelity claims, which SC voters and I think a lot of nonpartisan and even partisan D observers don't.

Perry, Scott, and Deal all have significant problems, but Haley really doesn't.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:14:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SC is a 10 point race, IMO, which for the Deep South is pretty good...

..she has some bad revelations lately.  Including:

She is running on her accounting background, yet she is not a CPA and has paid her taxes and the taxes of her parent's business, late with penalties multiple times. Included with that is not paying employee witholdings to the IRS.  Earlier, she did not disclose significant income from lobbying.  

Her primary issue has been 'transparency', yet she has refused to release certain emails, and other emails she would not let the media make copies.  

Sheheen has not run ads yet to exploit these, but I fully expect him to.

The GOP members of the legislature and the business community continue to distrust her, and are expected to support Sheheen, although for some, it will be behind the scenes.  

She has to be considerede the favorite, but I expect it to tighten.
     

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:57:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It pains me to say this

but I don't think those are issues that will move 10 points' worth of voters.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Sat Sep 18, 2010 at 19:02:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Insider Advantage is pretty good as a pollster and SURVEY USA is looking ..

... more off the reservation than ever.  More so than Rassmussen even.

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:06:30 PM UTC

Oh definitely, I trust Razzy far more...

Than SUSA these days. At least we know Razzy has a bit of a pro-GOP house effect. SUSA, OTOH, is just screwy.

And so far, I haven't seen anything to suggest Insider Advantage has major problems. (I wonder if they have any experience polling Nevada...)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:09:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Insider Advantage isn't rated well by Nate Silver, and anecdotally...

...I've found them to be spotty.  Not awful, but not great.  They are Georgia-based and Towery is a Republican who ran for office there in the past, but his polling doesn't seem to have any GOP-bias at all over the years from what I've observed.  But neither is Towery's Georgia polling any better in my observation than his outfit's polling in other states.  So Insider Advantage isn't some kind of "gold standard" in Georgia like some local pollsters are.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:12:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They had a great record in '08 in Presidential Primaries.

They didn't poll NH, but nearly every state they did poll was very close to the bullseye.  IIRC, they had the GA D primary for Gov. dead even, which it was.  

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:46:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really

In Alabama, they showed Obama beating Clinton by 2, he won by 14. In Georgia (their home-state) they showed Obama winning by 15, he won by 33. In Virginia they showed him leading by 15, he won by 30. In North Carolina they showed Obama winning by 4, he won by 14. In Tennessee they showed Clinton beating Obama by 20 points, she won by 13.

In fact, I remember thinking IA was a load of crap when they came out with that first North Carolina primary vote showing Clinton leading Obama by 2.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 21:54:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Having a Democratic veto available

in TX, FL, and GA next year could be the difference between making a comeback in the House or not in 2012. OH and PA are going to be hard to make up for.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 19:15:23 PM UTC