.

Perhaps the SUSA anomaly is a function of the fact that younger cosmopolitan voters are simultaneously more likely to be liberal and more likely to be cell-phone only...

...but then wouldn't every pollster not supplementing with a cell sample (practically all of them) be picking up the same phenomena?  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:04:13 AM UTC

Youth numbers

I am not convinced we are not seeing at least some swing in the youth vote.  I have heard from people on both sides that the Republicans are getting more younger volunteers than they have had in years and the Democrats are suffering a drought.  Again this might be a function of what I consider the general implosion of Democrats in many suburban areas.  These schools are generally have wealthier students from suburban homes.

Now do I think SUSA is right?  No, but I think anyone who doubts there is some shift needs to reconsider their position.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:12:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah I'm starting to see some of that too

It happens because a lot of them are socially liberal but fiscally conservative so seeing the dollar bill tag for the stimulus and TARP (which, seriously, basically no one knows was passed under Bush) not to mention HCR is what gets you tweets from Snookie that set the tempo for the votes here.

Still, 18-34 is a big group of people, and I'm still convinced that the people that started voting for Dems in 2006 are inclined to keep doing that this cycle too, even if the younger newly 18 group may be more conservative.

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by: isentrope @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 02:08:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ah yes...

the Snooki demographic.  It's larger than some people think.

Basically, think about all those young people who would be fans of the cast of Jersey Shore.  Not the show, mind you, but fans of the cast.  As in, not the ones who tune in just to laugh at their crazy antics, but people who actually like those people.

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by: BruinKid @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 04:10:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

we have ways to keep them from voting

it's why shots are 1/2 price on election days

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 04:22:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, that was really funny!

Here in Indiana, it is illegal for even bars and restaurants to sell/serve any kind of alcohol while the polls are open.  Every couple of years, I'll forget it's primary day for municipal elections, where nothing of note is on the ballot and like 5% of people vote, and I'll be ready for a beer with my lunch, and can't get it!

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 12:00:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That really sucks

In NC, the counties have certain controls on whether alcohol is served at any given time.  The county I grew up in would not serve alcohol at any time on Sunday, while most other counties can sell it after 12:00pm.

I'll raise my mug to you on election day...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 21:56:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm 23, and I'm not seeing it...

I just don't see some dynamic shift toward Republicans among young voters.

And if you don't believe me, compare and contrast the NV Democratic phone banks and walks to the NV GOP's activities. Almost all the Sharron Angle functions are filled entirely with older white folks. Even when the Gubernatorial debate happened and Rory's and Sandoval's campaigns "dueled" beforehand, Rory's volunteers were mostly younger and were of all races... And to my surprise, Sandoval's people looked mostly like Angle's.

Meanwhile, the Dems' phone banks and walks (at least the ones I've seen) still get plenty of young folks.

Now don't get me wrong, young voters are frustrated and it may not be easy to get some of them out to vote. Still, I'm seeing no "GOP surge" here among young voters.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 03:24:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

Here at IU Bloomington, the College Republicans are actively blocking efforts to open polling places on campus.  And they're being honest about their reasons:

Justin Kingsolver, president of the IU College Republicans, felt differently.

"This is a partisan issue. I know you're all saying that it isn't, but it is," Kingsolver said. "We need to make it as easily possible to vote, but we must realize there are limits to that. Some sacrifices have to be made to vote."

Don't you think if there were really a conservative shift among young people Mr. Kingsolver would have noticed, and be pushing for more polling places for his voters?  Nope -- because there is no such shift.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 05:59:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Duke College Republicans

just got voted by Duke Student Government to be dechartered and defunded(unprecedent event in a nearly unanimous vote)...there was a huge deal last semester when the president of DCR was outed as gay and he was impeached by the DCR on trumped up charges. However, after that vote the entire DCR leadership has pretty much resigned and the Duke Student Government vetoed the decision to decharter them and defund them (the reasoning being, while chartered DCR had to be a non-exclusive group - so they cannot discriminate against gays).

Point is, even in a microlevel there is a lot of antipathy towards republicans among young voters, especially social issues. On the macrolevel it's even worse. I have friends from NJ who are pissed at Christie for defunding education and I have friends from VA who are scared shitless about the kooky AG and Governor - they fell asleep, a republican got elected and now they are awake.

I'd say college students are almost overwhelmingly liberal. The problem is apathy (aka turnout), not a change in ideology. I don't know a single person who has become more conservative or sympathetic since 2008. However, pretty much everyone has stopped paying attention to politics.

And about the healthcare bill - there's a surprising amount of support among college student (the staying on your parents plan till 26 years old is very popular).  

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by: sulthernao @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 06:12:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

Student Council President vetoed the de-charter, didn't he?

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

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by: wmayes @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 06:48:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

oops...yep

forgot the word "President." He vetoed it, after the leadership of DCR resigned which was after the initial vote to decharter the group. Although the decharter wasn't official until Student Organization Finance Committee confirmed the Student Government decision (why it works like this? I have no clue). (Sorry for going off topic...)

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by: sulthernao @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 07:27:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you and some others are overinterpreting tea leaves......

I have no doubt there has been a shift away from Democrats in every demographic simply because that's what happens in a wave.

Even among black voters, those few black conservative Republicans who voted for Obama and Democrats in 2008 probably shift back to Republicans this year; they are too few in number to detect in statistical sampling, ultimately to the point of being trivial, but they exist and reprsesent a microscopic shift away from Obama among black voters.

So yes, I imagine there is a statistical shift away from Democrats among young voters, but it's merely the normal cyclical oscillation one sees from election to election.  Again, since this year is an anti-Democratic wave, some percentage of young voters will vote Republican who normally would vote for Democrats.

But that kind of cyclical oscillation doesn't represent a generational realignment.

And on the flip side, I do think the strong support for Obama among young adults in 2008 was itself partly just cyclical oscillation; there would have been some shift toward Democrats by young voters even if it was just boring Evan Bayh.  But Obama did generate excitement as a personal figure among young voters that went way above and beyond the normal oscillation in voting behavior.

Ultimately the reality is that young adult whites are very much in play for either party.  I know I went through college registered as an independent, then Republican, then finally a Democrat right before the start of my senior year.  Young adulthood is a time of getting a firm grip on one's own values and figuring out where they best fit in the political culture, and there is trial-and-error in that.

But much of the shift of young voters toward Democrats isn't generational as much as racial.  Young voters are much less white as a percentage than middle-aged or older voters.  And for that reason, there is, in fact, a permanent shift toward Democrats that will grow over time.  Republicans are so beholden to their need for immediate electoral success that they really have no way of turning back the racism and xenophobia that drives so much of their base and their political leadership.  And that is fatal among people of color.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 11:55:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

i remember one college friend

Telling me she was voting for Obama because the GOP had been in charge for 8 years and now it's the Dems turn.  Which was greatly exaccerbated, by as you said, the cyclical nature of the situation with everyone being tired of Bush and Obama being fresh faced.

Although I also think it's more of a fact that people won't show up vs are voting Republican.  And the fact this generation is less white than others only makes that more true; less white, younger, probably a bit poorer  are a recipe for lack of turn-out.

But with some shift in the electorate as well.  Maybe a 65/35 division in reasons.  As someone said above, we are probably more fiscally conservative than most realize.  Being expected  to get a 100k college education (and getting one)  makes you wanna be a bit stingy I'd say.  The Public Relations major working at Starbucks is not going to like to hear about "runaway spending".

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by: Andrew @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 12:37:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not only fiscal conservatism

I think our generation is less likely to have sympathy for traditional Democratic causes like organized labor, blue collar workers, and protectionism.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 14:43:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're very wrong about protectionism......

In disclosure, my professional work includes a program that helps workers displaced by trade.

And the biggest change in the past decade has been the rising displacement of non-factory jobs due to outsourcing.

There are more jobs than you might realize occupied by college graduates that are going overseas.

And IMO there's a straight line between that reality and the rising opposition to trade deals in public opinion surveys.  It's not just the recession, even before this recession the public was starting to sour on trade.

Now, I'm personally ambivalent on trade after having been a strong free trader in my earlier adult life.  I'm neither firmly for or against more free trade.

But it's clear the American public is going in the same direction as me, but much more strongly.

If anything, your generation, Ryan, is more hostile to free trade than my college peers when I was in school.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:05:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have to agree to disagree

Maybe its because I have primarily lived in industrial states, but it seems that every generation in states like Pennsylvania are more pro-free trade than the previous.  The Buy American mentality seems pretty much dead in anyone under the age of 50.  If people were opposed to free trade, they would be demanding more American made stuff.  The only opposition to multinational trade I have seen by younger people (aka anyone under 40) is on the environmental front.  I would not consider that as an opposition to trade in principle though.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:43:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One Possible Mode of Change

Barely anyone was anything other than an ardent free-trader at the college I went to in the 1990s.

That was back when it was low-skilled or semi-skilled laborers were the main losers under a free trade regime, the ones in competition with much cheaper foreign labor while the "knowledge workers" had much less to worry about.  

Fast forward to 2010. Barely anyone is safe anymore. (If anything, manual laborers needed to build or repair something on short notice might be in the best position.)  

If what you pay for things is set locally while what you can earn is set globally...you're in trouble. That describes more people now than it ever has before. It makes populist messaging attractive to voters in this situation a way that they otherwise would not be. Of course there's no guarantee that the left would be the main beneficiary, since paleoconservatives are known to sound many of the same notes in their message.  

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 16:02:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The data is clear, Americans have turned agianst trade agreements......

It's not ambiguous, all the polling the past several years reveals a sharp turn against trade deals.

It's silly to say opposition to trade deals would make people demand American-made goods.  We actually went through a long phase of that in the 80s and 90s, and people learned it didn't work because the same people fearing for American jobs were too strongly incentized as consumers to buy cheap goods made overseas to protect their pocketbook on the spending side.

The only reason "younger people" might not be as hostile to trade is the same reason they're disengaged from politics generally:  they haven't experienced life on their own for long enough to live through the risks and fears their elders know well.  You're a college kid, you haven't even fully left the nest yet, you're in a sort of purgatory.  Then you're in an entry-level professional job, you're still just getting your feet wet in the working world.  It's only after you've been around the block a few times that you start to see what can happen out there to derail your grand plans and your livelihood.

These younger generations you speak of experience the same things eventually that their older cohorts do.  They're not any more free trade than their elders in reaction to it.

It's not debatable at all that "free trade" is bad electoral politics.  Everyone who mentions it running for office does so to attack it; no one runs for office in support of free trade, and free trade candidates stay quiet about it and hopes it doesn't come up.

And like I wrote above, the polling on the issue is clear.  It's a stark shift from the 80s and 90s, when free trade had strong popular support, polling in the high 50s or 60s.  It now polls in the 40s, with opposition in the 50s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 19:50:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree.

We haven't had the exposure to those old causes our parents and grandparents had, plus some including myself are looking for ways to sustain ourselves in old age without Social Security, which was meant to only be a supplement anyway.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:11:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Social security will remain untouchable. You'll feel the same as you age, and I'm proof......

The attitudes today's youth have about social security are the same that I had in my young adulthood, and I imagine the same as a lot of today's 60-year olds had when they were young adults.

You care more as you get older.  You realize saving for retirement doesn't necessarily produce a bonanza doing it on your own, and social security becomes a useful piece of the puzzle.  I'm 42 now, and those annual statements I get from the Social Security Administration, I spend a little time examining it now instead of just immediately filing it away.

It's nothing new that you're looking beyond social security, all of us did the same when I was in college.  A lot of us thought back then that with huge deficits and the debt that social security wouldn't exist for us once we were old.  I now realize that was absurd.  And now in middle age, I feel much more committed to its preservation.

And what helps its survival is that its solvency issues are easily resolved.  It's just a pot of money, and making the payroll taxation slightly more progressive by raising the income threshhold is all it takes.

What stuns me is that any Congressional Democrats errantly and foolishly think that's politically more toxic than trimming benefits through raising the age requirements or reducing benefit amounts.  They assume that a slight tax hike will produce more rebellion from workers than benefit cuts will produce from seniors, and I think that's a bad miscalculation by the Blue Dogs.

So regarding what drives voting behavior for the young, it's a permanent feature, nothing new, that young voters don't care about some things that older voters care about.  Young voters just change their minds as they get older and start caring about those things, just like my generation.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:47:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds About Right

Hard to tell how much of that is cyclical and how much of that is a trend that will prove very difficult to reverse.

Not that there is an exact 1-to-1 correlation with policies enacted in/against the interest of any of the above and increasing or decreasing income/wealth inequality, but the two are definitely related.

I have a lot of the policy preferences that I have because inequality of results drive inequality of opportunities. If "winner take all" is your new default rule, than people might re-evaluate what they are and are not willing to do to be "winners."

Electorally speaking, this will continue to be a challenge for the Democratic Party, perhaps their biggest one going forward. There is a vague sense out there, even among self-described conservatives, that corporations have too much power, but for a variety of reasons that hasn't necessarily translated into support for concrete checks on such power.

   

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:17:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Numbers

I believe the Senate numbers, but the Gubernatorial numbers are stretching it.  That race has to be a lot closer for the DGA to dump that kind of cash into the race.

I suspect there are a lot of Republicans that would vote for Barnes over Deal because Deal is a fraud and Barnes is a good, moderate Democrat.

On a side note, is it me or are we seeing a lot of polls with high third party numbers as of late?

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

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by: Ryan_in_DelCo @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:07:13 AM UTC

The Susa polls always show Republicans ahead among young people

I could believe there making inroads with reactionary young people but no way is it nearly that large of a swing. The Democrats will still comfortabely carry the Demo by at least 10 nationwide but its not nearly as impressive as the 2-1 in 08. The drop off will be among reactionary young people moving to the GOP and dissolutioned far left young people not voting and getting cynical about politics. That being said the GOP might do well in Georgia among the 18-29 year olds they did give McCain a majority of there votes according to CNN exit polls. Acctully looking at these exit polls they make Georgia seem like a contradiction to the nation Baby Boomer and Millenials are Republican while Gen Xers are Democrats heh. But still the GOP barely carried 18-29 year olds so there should'nt be a 19 point gap. I think a 10 point gap is the worst case scenario for Dems.

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  

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by: D in FL @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:48:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awful

I'd suggest everyone really look at the numbers. Monds doing so well among the young crowd really stands out.

In the Attorney General's race, Olens will get more Democrats, Hodges will get more Republicans.

I just do not put much credibility into this poll.

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by: RuralDem @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:15:13 AM UTC

The "tell" that proves this SUSA poll dead wrong is...

...the DGA putting $1 million into the race.  They're badly outgunned financially by the RGA this year, they don't have cash to spare on a red state where we're down by double digits.

That investment proves it's a single-digit race, probably mid-single digits.  The private polling must establish that, but by design we'll never see that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 01:28:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Meh.

The Marshall camp's excellent takedown of that SUSA poll showing Burr ahead by 24 raises serious questions about the accuracy of SUSA's methodology in all of their polls, at least in this round. Frankly, even Rasmussen looks more credible right now. SUSA is starting to more resemble R2K than a serious pollster.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 03:04:29 AM UTC

This isn't like R2K

R2K was fake because it was giving results that were too believable.  No one can really want SUSA to give numbers this crazy, even Republicans; they'd much prefer numbers that gave these polls credibility.  If there's a problem with SUSA's methodology, it has nothing to do with inherent bias; it's just methodology problems.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 05:53:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fine, Zogby then.

Though frankly, to me, a bad pollster is a bad pollster. Doesn't matter why they're bad, just that they drag down the average.

And I think 2010 will be remembered as the year of crappy polling across the board.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 11:57:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is no way the Libertarians are going to get that much.

Nor can I really believe there are only 4% undecideds.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 03:06:38 AM UTC

SurveyUSA

They are fast becoming very unreliable.Even In 2008 you
could find fault with them.Look Deal may win but any polls
that have Republicans leading with Younger people and
getting Blacks over 10 percent should not be taken
seriously.I take PPP more seriously.While they don't
always have the dest numbers for Democrats they are more
Likely to be right.

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by: Robbins @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 04:27:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Only 1 in 4 whites voting for a former governor?

A little hard to believe.  In this case, the AA vote seems right on though.  Which is unusual for SUSA.

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by: Paleo @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 12:24:01 PM UTC

I will say a couple of things in SUSA's defense:

1. McCain did win young people in Georgia

2. Before 2008, women in Georgia were as likely to vote Republican as men (at least in 2004).

3. White support for Democratic presidential candidates has typically been around 20% or so.

That being said, the outlandishly high support for Libertarians across the board, the low numbers of undecideds, and the fact that Carol Porter does worse among women than Barnes and Hodges is very suspect.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 15:30:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain won young people?

I believe you, but that's really amazing when you think about it. His margin of victory was only 5, which meant Obama must have done OK for himself with older Georgians.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 19:26:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McCain won under 30s in Georgia

51-48 according to the exit poll.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

OTOH, Obama won 30-44 yr olds 56-44.  My guess is that 30-44 year olds have lots northern transplants, as evidenced by the 20% of white under 30 who voted for Obama versus the 32% of white 30-44 yr olds who supported Obama.

38, male, conservative Republican, TX-3 currently (IL-13)

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by: BearFanTX @ Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 22:13:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep, but Obama narrowed the gap from Kerry.

And Obama's gap among younger voters was smaller than his statewide gap.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Sep 17, 2010 at 05:14:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]