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GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Slim Lead for Nathan Deal, Isakson Under 50

by: James L.

Fri Aug 20, 2010 at 12:16 AM EDT


InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV (8/18, likely voters, no trend lines):

Roy Barnes (D): 41
Nathan Deal (R): 45
John Monds (L): 5
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4%)

InsiderAdvantage is out with their first general election poll of Georgia, and all signs are pointing to a tight race this fall. Among independents, a demographic that's been giving Dems a hard time across the country, Deal leads Barnes by only 41-38.

Deal's camp is spinning the results as if they represent something of a high-water mark for Barnes, arguing that their candidate just emerged from a bloody runoff (not to mention several days of Barnes attack ads), and is still standing on top. Maybe, but I can't help but get the feeling that this race is just getting warmed up.

Also of interest is an accompanying article by InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery on the poll's results. One graf in particular stands out:

Make no mistake - this will be a tight race. But for Barnes to win he must shed the country boy image he has been projecting on television and go after the independent voters who seem inclined to consider voting for him. Barnes must become the metro Atlanta candidate, and that means the real Roy Barnes, who is articulate and sophisticated, must emerge in his commercials. For Deal to win, he must convince voters that he is familiar with statewide issues and that he is not tainted by ethical problems, tax problems or other questions that would be left hanging were he to be elected governor.

Interesting food for thought: Can Barnes successfully resurrect the old rural/urban Democratic road map to statewide victory in Georgia, or is he going to need to write a new playbook?

Meanwhile, we've also got some Senate numbers:

Michael Thurmond (D): 35
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 47
Chuck Donovan (L): 7
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4%)

Pretty weak tea for Isakson -- this guy is hardly beloved by any means. Still, it's hard to see Thurmond powering himself to anything beyond a respectable showing.
James L. :: GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Slim Lead for Nathan Deal, Isakson Under 50
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GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Slim Lead for Nathan Deal, Isakson Under 50 | 33 comments
Barnes is a good fundraiser and I hear he's been trekking all over Georgia.
He's just gotta make Deal own his ethical baggage.  Then, Barnes has to make Georgians nostalgic for him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Insider Advantage Sucks

They lost all credibility with me when they released this poll that showed Jim Martin getting 4th place in the 2008 Democratic Senatorial Primary in GA?!?! 


So it seems.
I used to work for an institute of Kennesaw State University that had a telephone survey lab.  One of my co-workers once said that IA had contacted them about doing a joint venture, but they (the institute) were shocked at the sloppiness of IA's methodology.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well
I'm not going to defend IA, but Martin barely campaigned in the Primary. Sure, he was known from his bid for Lt. Governor in 2006, but he lost.

Jones had the advantage of being the only black candidate AND being the only conservative Democrat in the race.

Cardwell was a well known news guy and had been in the race well over a year and had traveled the state. I remember seeing him when John Edwards came to Macon.

Lanier had been in the race for quite a while as well.

That is a large number of undecideds in that poll, and, well, it looks like they went with Martin.

[ Parent ]
Woah, you didn't capitalize conservative
Is there a difference between a conservative and Conservative Democrat? ;)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm predicting a Barnes win here
I can't think of a worse candidate the Republicans could have put up. I think the only reason that Deal won the primary is because, as John Stewart put it, he unleashed the gay monster against Handel. If that's the best he can in the general while Barnes rips him on ethics, I could conceivably see this a 8-10 point victory for Barnes.

19, male, Dem, CT-04 (home) PA-02 (college and registered)
I'm thinking Barnes will win it at the end of the day.
At this point, though, not by 8-10 points (although if polls do show a clear lead for him, I wonder if some Republicans might defect to Monds).  I had thought we'd win the Attorney General and School Superintendent races, too, but I don't think so anymore.  We might end up with just one statewide elected Democrat.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Huh
So you think Hodges has no shot against Olens? I'm surprised at that. Olens is not liked in Rural Georgia, while Hodges has his base in Rural Georgia and has strong ties to the Metro area, which counters Olens' base.

Teilhet was an ok candidate until he the Walker ads. That alone would have ruined him had he made it to the General.

AG is very winnable. He might not be the type of candidate you like, but Hodges has a great chance.

We have a great shot at grabbing the PSC seat. Hicks has a strong Metro base, but has strong rural ties. Echols is attached to the hip with Oxendine, and if Oxendine does face a trial, it could damage Echols.

We have a decent shot at Agriculture Commissioner. J.B. Powell is no Tommy Irvin, but that's because Irvin is in a league of his own. Irvin is a household name like Sam Nunn and Richard Russell in our great state. Sure, it's a long shot, but I would not count Powell out.

You do not think Porter has a shot against Cagle? She's getting quite a bit of GOP support, at least from the Republicans I speak with.

I agree with School Superintendent. Joe Martin did not even campaign in the Primary.

[ Parent ]
Wow
I certainly messed up there with the PSC remark. I got Hicks and Moffett mixed up.

[ Parent ]
Having a shot and winning are different.
Yeah, they may have, to varying to degrees, shots at winning.  I certainly don't expect any 70-30 blowouts against us.  But I think Republicans will win everything by the Governor's race.

U.S. Senate--Thurmond is no Majette but Isakson is no Burr or Rand Paul and has the cash, incumbency, and party ID advantages.

Lt. Gov--Porter should do decently well, but Cagle has the same advantages as Isakson.

SoS--While you have to question how much incumbency counts for an unelected incumbent, Kemp certainly has the other two advantages.  Sinkfield, BTW, is in the red.

Ag. Comm--Powell has no money against the (former?) head of the Georgia Agribusiness Council (re: source of funds) who also has the benefit of name recognition.

PSC--Same has Ag Comm but we have a candidate of even less quality.

Labor Comm.--While not having that big a money advantage now, you'd have to expect Butler to get lots of business money to swamp Hicks.

Ins. Comm--One of the few races I feel better about after the primary than before, Hudgens still has the advantage.

A.G.--Yeah, Hodges may be competitive, but Olens has been re-elected multiple times in a county that has almost 10% of the state's population by itself.  And Hodges' "I'm a prosecutor" platform will be about as effective as John Kerry's "Be blinded by the medals" message.

Superintendent--Martin was our least qualified candidate, and has no classroom experience.  That makes it much harder to relate to educators, certainly harder than it would have been for Farokhi or Westlake.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I think we will win 2 or 3
GOV: Barnes wins a tight one 51-49 on the backs of a strong metro ATL vote and a good showing in south GA.

AG: Metro vs. Rural and whoever wins the GOV may draw enough to pull the other candidate over the line.

Superintendent: This to me is Lean D. Martin is far more qualified and better funded.  

[ Parent ]
First real post on SSP.
Pretty sure Michael Thurmond is not the incumbent.

This is my first real post here btw, although I've lurked for a long time.  

18, Dem, PA-7

Good catch
Thanks
[ Parent ]
Welcome. :D


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Welcome!
Mazal tov on delurking! Hope a few more folks follow your example.
[ Parent ]
This will be close.
Deal seems like a boring/weak candidate to me. It's just hard because it is Georgia. Realistically Deal will probably eek this out. He'd have to make an error to give Barnes an opening. Which is very possible so I'm interested to see how this one trends.

The senate race won't be a blowout, Isakson is very conservative, even for Georgia.  

Georgia is traditionally Democratic.
But that was changed when the fundamentalist platform Republicans surged to victory in 2002 and elected Saxby Chambliss, took the State Senate (and the State House in 2004), and elected their first Republican governor since Reconstruction.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Isakson is actually considered
to be moderate by Georgia Republican standards.  
[ Parent ]
Sadly that's the case.
National Georgia Republicans are tee-totally, wide-eyed, batshit-fucking-insane.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
He'd have to make an error to give Barnes an opening
Yeah his corruption, which is why he resigned from Congress. You didn't know that? It's because of all the baggage is why Barnes has his opening. Looking around, he does have a opening. If anyone is going to week it out it will be Barnes.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
I would think that Thurmond could force a runoff
much like Martin did in 2008. but ball game over after that. Johnny would win in a landslide.  
[ Parent ]
He Should
Honestly, Thurmond could win, but his campaign is non-existent. His initiatives as Labor Commissioner have been copied by other states, he's a centrist, former state legislator representing a majority white area, etc.

Isakson is not well liked by the GA GOP, but after Saxby's close call in 2008, Isakson has tried to make peace.

Thurmond's main problem is that he's barely campaigned. I'm not sure if he was simply banking on name ID in the Primary, but I've heard nothing from his campaign in Middle Georgia, and this is an area where he could do very well. He can go toe to toe with Isakson when it comes to rural white voters and he can run up the numbers in majority black counties.

If Thurmond had been our candidate in 2008, he'd be Senator Thurmond today.

He just picked the wrong year.

[ Parent ]
You didn't mention Thurmond's most obvious problem - money
Last I checked, he had something like $100K on-hand, and you know the national Dems won't spend a dime here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Covered
I believe you covered it last time I mentioned Thurmond.

His CoH is bad, but it's not because he can't raise money, he's always been a fairly decent fundraiser, hence my mention about his lack of campaigning.

[ Parent ]
Georgia is Virginia Part 3
Same sort of dynamic: a huge and still growing suburban area with lots of latent Democratic advantages.  For the most part, it's been behind other suburban areas (e.g. NYC, Philly, Seattle, Chicago) but things really started to break in 2008 when Obama flipped three suburban counties and put three others into single digit McCain victories.

Long term, as a whole, Georgia is not hopeless.  The question is: How soon?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I'd like to think Barnes can win here, but I'm not sure
If he does, I imagine it's because a) Deal can't deliver the Karen Handel base, and b) Michael Thurmond's presence on the ticket keeps African-American turn-out fairly strong.

That said, despite Georgia's history as something of a Lean-R swing state, I feel like, at least for now, in these tough times for Democrats, it's trending slightly more red. Not Arkansas red, but red to the point where even a perfect candidate like Roy Barnes will have trouble prevailing.

For now, I see these races as...

GOP - 36%
Democrat - 34%
Independent - 30%

Barnes - 13/93/46 = 51%
Deal - 87/7/54 - 49%

Ha! So, even after all of that, I wind up finding Barnes ahead. Toss-up.

Thurmond - 7/87/44 = 46%
Isakson - 93/13/56 = 54%

Despite my calculation, I suspect I'm being awfully kind to Thurmond. What I basically did here was plug in the internals from Isakson/Majette, and then give Thurmond a little better margin with each group (cuz, after all, he's a better candidate than Majette). What helps Thurmond, though, is that '04 turn-out was 42/34/24 GOP/Dem/Indie. Likely R, though I'd keep polling this.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Handel supporters
I would like to see some polling detailing the intentions of Handel supporters.  Deal probably has some issues with them and just maybe Barnes can win the vote.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
He Could
The big worry about Handel vs Barnes was that they'd share a similar base. Both are from the Metro area, Handel could have taken a chunk of the female vote, etc.

Now that Handel is out, Barnes will have the Metro vote.

This race will be decided in Rural Georgia though. Barnes has been all over Middle and South Georgia, the same cannot be said for Deal.

[ Parent ]
You're Senate prediction is interesting
You left the Libertarian out of the equation.  He should shave a point or two off Isakson's totals.  That makes it 52-46 Isakson, almost the same as McCain versus Obama.  I'd be happy with just that.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Few Things
A) Georgia's history is NOT that of a "Lean-R swing state".
We're a conservative state, no doubt about it, but we're not a historically Republican stronghold. Perdue won in 2002, not because of the GOP wave, but because Barnes angered teachers and rural whites. Perdue won in 2006 because Taylor and Cox tore each other apart in the Primary, allowing Perdue to play the "adult in the room" role.

B) Thurmond should do a little better among the GOP, while Isakson will do slightly worse among Democrats. Also, Thurmond should take the Independent vote as well.

C) Can you provide a link to the Isakson/Majette internals? I'd like to see them. Majette was fairly controversial, reliably liberal, and unknown outside of her district. She barely campaigned, and the ads she ran were more of an ethics attack, which fell on deaf ears, than anything. Thurmond is much much stronger opponent, having won statewide by large margins, representing a majority white district in the state legislator, and being a centrist.

[ Parent ]
Sure...
[ Parent ]
i forsee
a runoff in GOV, and Isakson win in SEN
You foresee?
What will be tonight's Mega Millions numbers?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Slim Lead for Nathan Deal, Isakson Under 50 | 33 comments

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