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CO-Gov: Tancredo Will Run as Third Party

by: jeffmd

Mon Jul 26, 2010 at 11:59 AM EDT


Seemingly unsatisfied with Republicans Scott "Plagiarist" McInnis and Dan "under the table" Maes' refusal to exit the race, former CO-06 Rep. (and certifiable nutjob) Tom Tancredo will run for Governor under the banner of the American Constitution Party. From the Denver Post:

Former Congressman Tom Tancredo is in the race for Colorado governor, he said this morning.

"I will officially announce at noon that I will seek the nomination of the constitution party," Tancredo told The Denver Post.

Barring both Maes and McInnis pulling a Dede Scozzafava and dropping out (allowing Tancredo to consolidate the conservative vote), the only Dem in this race, John Hickenlooper, must be feeling pretty lucky.
jeffmd :: CO-Gov: Tancredo Will Run as Third Party
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CO-Gov: Tancredo Will Run as Third Party | 51 comments
YYEESS!!!
Hickenlooper for Governor!!!

This race is a mess for the GOP.  

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush

The circus is here
Hickenlooper is clearly the favorite now. I think the Republican's biggest concern is that the split will impact down ballot, mainly the Senate race and CO-4. Having a big hole at the top of your ticket doesn't do much good.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.
Immediately
I just moved Betsy Markey's seat back out of GOP takeover to Dem retention.  A strong victory by Hickenlooper almost ensures her survival.

John Salazar's and Ed Perlmutter's seats are pretty much out of reach for the GOP now too.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
I never saw those two within their reach
anyway, particularly not the way Perlmutter's has been trending Democratic.  
[ Parent ]
It may actually hurt her...
...I'll use the example of 2000.  Ralph Nader guaranteed that George Bush would be President.  That most assuredly was a bad thing.  But further down the ticket it did have a net increase on the number of left leaning voters and probably was a factor in the narrow victory we had in a number of senate seats we won very narrowly.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
yes, my concern...

[ Parent ]
Stephen, I think you might have moved too quickly on that
Keep in mind there's still a very competitive race happening in the Senate. Also it's really hard to say what kind of effect this will have downballot. I still think this seat is a tossup.

But that's just my 2 cents  

[ Parent ]
Wow
I was hesitant to get optimistic about this race as I thought McInnis would drop out after winning the nomination and the Republicans would find a great candidate to replace him with. However I now officialy, for all that care, think this thing is in the bag. I bet Ritter regrets not running again. All of this very well may provide coattails to Bennet. It's a great day!!!!!!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I think the real problem here for the Republicans was Maes
From what I hear, McInnis would have dropped out but Maes refused to go, and so the Republicans would have been stuck with him as a candidate.

Great news for Hickenlooper though - note Tancredo does not say he would drop out even if a "stronger candidate" for the Republicans emerged.  

How might this affect the Senate race?
Buck or Norton will presumably be asked who they're supporting; if they say McInnis, as they'd probably be expected to since he's the party's nominee, would that not likely piss off Tancredo supporters?  Or if they actually endorse Tancredo, the reverse?
They will endorse the Republican nominee
Tancredo isn't popular even among a lot of conservatives in Colorado, especially more mainstream types.

I think the hope among Democrats would be that with Hickenlooper a lock for Governor Republicans won't turn out. Maybe, but with the Senate race being as arguably high-profile, I'm skeptical it will affect the other races that much.  

[ Parent ]
Agree, Senate race high-profile enough to drive its own turnout, but where this helps is...
...in driving up Democratic turnout, since a great shot at an important victory in the Governor's race gets Democratic morale back up.  So the enthusiasm gap in Colorado can be closed, not by driving down GOP turnout, but by driving up base Democratic turnout.  And Denver turnout in particular should be very high now, with their own Mayor at the top of the ticket.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Right - good point.

[ Parent ]
My concern is that...
both wings of the GOP will have someone to motivate them, like having multiple nominees, might actually boost GOP turnout in Senate. Any historically comparable races?  
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't count on that. The problem with that hypothesis is...
...the obvious division of the Republican vote hurting the party drives down GOP morale in the Governor's race, as does the inevitable right-on-right intraparty attacks that Tancredo will exchange with McInnis or Maaes.

The only way the Republicans have a chance for the governorship now is if McInnis stays in it through the primary, wins, drops out, and a substitute nominee emerges who is good enough on paper to persuade Tancredo to end his indy bid.  That's actually a plausible scenario, even if less than 50-50 odds.

But there is no scenario where GOP turnout is helped compared to what it would have been without the plagiarism scandal ever emerging.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Victory is not the only motivator for right-wingers
I believe there's a culture in the right wing in favor of "glorious defeat". No way Thurmond or Wallace would have made their 3rd party runs -- or have so many people voting for them, solely motivated by expectations for victory.

I know, McInnis has a 100% anti-immigration record. But if he's replaced by someone like Bill Owens, I could see Tancredo becoming a significant factor. And the Owens/Tancredo vote together I think would boost R turnout.

Obviously, this isn't the most likely scenario. But Owens would be the Rs best replacement candidate for McInnis.

[ Parent ]
Tancredo has no personal appeal akin to Strom Thurmond or George Wallace!......
Tancredo is a rogue former Congressman with no proven base of support outside the U.S. House district he represented.  It's hyperbolic to suggest he can draw any votes on his own.

Any votes Tancredo gets in November are takeaways from the Republican nominee, the result of the GOP nominee being fatally wounded.  And, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even with McInnis or Maaes carrying the GOP flag, Tancredo still ends up with 1-2%.  If he raises any serious money, he has a chance to do better than that.  He does at least draw a lot of free media from being a political shock jock, but that doesn't necessarily translate to being taken seriously by voters.  And he's not going to get any 3rd party help because he has no chance to win.  If the Colorado GOP gets a substitute nominee of Bill Owens or someone else of his stature, then Tancredo won't register at all.

You have to keep in mind that with Thurmond and Wallace, their voters were voting on a major issue of the day on which Southern white supremacists, who comprised virtually all white Southerners, correctly viewed the major parties as refusing to fully validate their viewpoint.

Tancredo is a crazy nativist, but there isn't that large a nativist vote, even within the GOP, that won't be easily satisfied by other conservative Republicans with sufficient stands and records of opposing "amnesty" and favoring stronger border control.  Immigration is not today's version of segregation in the national mentality.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
In the current political environment
it is socially acceptable to be a nativist. With that in mind, I'm not sure what you mean by
there isn't that large a nativist vote, even within the GOP

If I'm reading it correctly, Jan Brewer shouldn't be doing so well in AZ.

In addition, I disagree with

Immigration is not today's version of segregation in the national mentality.

In my encounters with wingnuts from the deep south, nativism is a core issue. While my encounters are not a statistically representative sample, it does make me doubt what you say, at least without momre data.

[ Parent ]
Not entirely true
I'll just paste your quote, since I'm not sure how to block quote just yet.

Tancredo is a rogue former Congressman with no proven base of support outside the U.S. House district he represented.  It's hyperbolic to suggest he can draw any votes on his own.

That's patently not so.  He has a lot of like minded types on the Eastern Plains of the 4th and certainly in the 5th CD (Colorado Springs and adjacent).  He used to represent the 6th.  Unfortunately, the Eastern Plains part of the 4th is small and shrinking and the 5th is...well, batshit crazy under any circumstance, so we're not winning it.  On the other hand, Colorado Pols is just reporting that the Constitution Party has drafted a candidate to run against Gardner and Markey...he's not exactly well known or a big spender, but every little bit helps.  See http://coloradopols.com/diary/...

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
"Like-minded types" does NOT equal a personal base of support......
Getting people to vote for Tancredo in a quixotic and failed bid for Governor requires one of two things.  First, there needs to be a high level of personal loyalty to him, not just like-mindedness.  I don't think any such loyalty outside his old House district has been established.  Second, the Republican nominee has to be considered unacceptable ideologically.  Whatever problems McInnis or Maaes have, I don't know that they're bad on issues conservatives care about.  I know McInnis isn't universally well-liked personally in the CO establishment, and he comes off as more libertarian and less social conservative than some other CO GOPers, but still he's pretty conservative and doesn't dissent on major cultural issues as far as I've ever heard.  And Maaes I believe is a hard right-winger.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tancredo got, say, 5% in his old House district, but if he registers more than 2% anywhere else this November, I'll be surprised.

I think we'll have a good handle on Tancredo's base of support from his fundraising going forward.  If he has little money (as I suspect will be the case), then he's a non-factor.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
As I think about this...
What Tancredo is hoping is to pull some blackmail on the Colorado Republican party, akin to what Doug Hoffman is doing in New York. His hope is likely that McInnis wins the primary and then drops out. Then the Republican party, seeing Tancredo is already on the ballot, has no choice but to endorese Tancredo.

The problem is Tancredo is toxic to the majority of Colorado voters, and Dick Waldhams, who is chair of the party, hates him. I don't think anyone realistically thinks he could beat Hickenlooper. Except maybe Tancredo, which is the whole problem.  

Some politicians are lucky
And then some politicians are John Hickenlooper.  
Who's luckier,
Hickenlooper or Reid?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Hickenlooper
Hick has the equivalent of three Sharron Angles running against him: Maes, McInnis and Tancredo. This guy has had the closest thing to a miracle since Jesus turned water into wine.

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush
[ Parent ]
Moreover...
Hick really did luck into this, as I doubt he could engineer a plagiarism scandal. Reid, however, very aggressively worked to make Angle his opponent.
[ Parent ]
Hick
just sat back and watched this implosion happen right before him. There is not a luckier person in politics right now...

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush
[ Parent ]
He did?
How so?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Hickenlooper
did not have to do anything to get his set of opponents, like Reid did. He did nothing to get this miracle, the GOP handed it to him on a silver platter.

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush
[ Parent ]
He spent millions
attacking Lowden in the primary to boost Angle's chances of victory.  And he did a ton of stuff in the preceding two years to keep other candidates out of the race.
[ Parent ]
Somewhere
I hear a tin opening.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
I'm not convinced this will help other CO Ds
unless the CO-Gov race stays close.

R voters have been splitting tickets for decades.

In fact it may hurt us
in the lower races if this were a different state.  

There are some Democrats who would vote for Tancredo in a three-way race, because of his strong stand against immigration and Muslims.  Probably not too many in a state like Colorado.

[ Parent ]
It definitely helps us by improving base Democratic morale......
I was a Virginia activist and voter last year and lived through the experience of what bad morale does to a political party on election day.  Deeds just dragged down everyone, and base Democratic turnout was abysmal.  Turnout in Fairfax County, where I live, was actually down 5,000 votes from 4 years earlier, despite massive increases in voter registration as the result of the 2008 presidential election.

Now that Colorado Democrats have something to be excited about, with a popular candidate running for Governor with a fantastic chance to win, their turnout statewide will benefit.  You're going to see a much smaller turnout gap thanks to this.

No question this helps Bennet and Markey.

Does that mean they'll win?  Not necessarly.  But I guarantee they'll perform better than if the plagiarism scandal and the ensuing events never happened.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This news is certainly terrible
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

So in the pre-plagiarism days, Tancredo polled 3 points worse than McInnis.  I suspect Tancredo is actually polling no worse than McInnis now in a one-on-one.

But the third-party aspect makes the prospects for victory nearly impossible.

That old PPP poll was misleading and shows the limits of pollling......
Take away McInnis' plagiarism scandal, and in a real election no way would Tancredo perform nearly as well as McInnis.  PPP showed how limited a value polling can have so far out from an election, when voters haven't given the candidates any serious thought.  Tancredo is unelectable the same way as Sharron Angle, and Hickenlooper would destroy him one-on-one in a way he could not destroy McInnis.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
What Wadhams Said
I love what Dick Wadhams said about Tancredo's gubernatorial bid, and he summed it up in one simple sentence:

"What's your agenda? What are you going to talk about? Impeach Obama and bomb Mecca?" Wadhams asked.

Not only sums up his whole bid
But sums up his entire carrer: Him being a total fucking lunatic.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
Also mean.

[ Parent ]
Yet true


30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
No, Tancredo's mean, not the comment

[ Parent ]
One slight change
I think with Tancredo it would be "Impeach Obama and bomb Mexico."

/delighted sarcasm

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Actually Tancredo actually said something about bombing Mecca, which is why Wadhams said that......
Tancredo has expanded his xenophobic rants to include Arabs and Muslims.  It's his personal brand of diversity.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine why any parent thought they
were doing their son a favour by giving him the name "Dick Wadhams".
[ Parent ]
I have such
a fucking headache. I hate Tom Tancredo. What a dick.
On a plus side (for ya'll) its providing some entertainment. Maybe in a few days when I'm over my urge to beat Tancredo, I will find this funny. http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...
it's ok.
think about how felt about FL-16 in 2008. What goes around comes around, both sides will have their chances to bang their heads against a wall.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
that should be
think about how we (i.e. Democrats) felt.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well, not the same at all to me b/c we're talking about a Governorship here......
A governorship is a big deal, much bigger than a lone House seat.  And it's about redistricting, too, which is why all of us outside CO care about governorships in states in which we don't live.  I know there's not so much at stake for us in redistricting CO as a bunch of other states, but it's not nothing.  And it's a morale issue, too, since winning this one is a coup.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I especially think CO is important morale-wise; while not as important for redistricting as, say, Florida or Texas, Colorado has long been cited as an example of a state that trended Democratic then went sharply in the other direction, and this race provides us with a chance to keep it on its path to blue-ness.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of how frustrated Democrats were
over the antics of Michael Jackson (heh heh) in Don Cazayoux's district in 2008.
[ Parent ]
It was game over already
but now it is "highly entertaining GOP clusterfuck" game over.

Moves from Likely Dem to Very Likely Dem... the only thing keeping this from "safe" is the further possible fallout that could lead to Tommy Toonuts changing his mind.

Tancrado
is pshyco...

"I think the American people misunderestimated me." -George W. Bush
CO-Gov: Tancredo Will Run as Third Party | 51 comments

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