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SSP Daily Digest: 5/28 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Fri May 28, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • AK-Sen: It looks like Democrats will have a warm body to challenge frosh GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski this year. The Alaska Democratic Party is touting Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams as their man, and he says that he'll make an announcement about the race on June 1.
  • AR-Sen: The SEIU is spending $307,000 on their latest ad buy for Bill Halter, bringing their total investment in this race close to $2.5 million. That's some serious pie.
  • CT-Sen: Last week, Joe Lieberman said he was undecided on whom to support in the race between Democrat Richard Blumenthal and Republican Linda McMahon. This week, Lieberman is still saying that he's "not eliminating [a McMahon endorsement] as a possibility." What a major league asshole.
  • FL-Sem: This is both amusing and rather extraordinary. Libertarian Party candidate Alexander Snitker released an internal poll conducted by Telsel Inc. showing Charlie Crist at 40%, Marco Rubio at 34%, Kendrick Meek at 10%, and Snitker at a whopping 2.5%. I'm not sure what's more remarkable: the fact that this guy paid for a poll, or the fact that he's touting its results as proof that he can win.
  • MO-Sen: Because it's never too early to start planning for 2012, ex-Sen. Jim Talent says that he's mulling over a rematch with Democrat Claire McCaskill, and will make a decision early next cycle.
  • NV-Sen: We had heard of the Dump Reid PAC before, but I didn't realize that their name was an acronym. Yes, their formal title is actually "Decidedly Unhappy Mainstream Patriots Rejecting Evil-Mongering Incompetent Democrats". Anyway, those bozos have spent $30,000 against Harry Reid, mostly on direct mail.
  • AL-07: EMILY's List has now spent $110,000 on the candidacy of former Wall Street securities attorney Terri Sewell, most of that on direct mail. My one-word editorial: Yeesh.
  • AR-03: Wilson Research Strategies (5/19-20, likely voters):

    Steve Womack (R): 53
    Cecile Bledsoe (R): 24
    Undecided: 23
    (MoE: ±4.9%)
  • CT-04: It looks like the GOP primary to take on Jim Himes will be a four-way. State Sen. Dan Debicella, businessman Robert Merkle, and Easton First Selectman Thomas Herrmann will be joined on the ballot by Paulist businessman Rick Torres, who says that he's collected the required amount of signatures to land on the ballot. Torres also announced a cross-endorsement of fellow weirdo Peter Schiff, who's waging an uphill campaign for the Republican Senate nomination. Torres says that his campaign will help Schiff collect signatures in the coming days.
  • IN-03: Republicans now have more than ten dudes running for the seat of disgraced ex-Rep. Mark Souder, the latest entrant being state Rep. Wes Culver.
  • NY-13: After being rebuffed by disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella, the Staten Island GOP formally nominated lawyer Michael Allegretti to take on Dem Rep. Mike McMahon. In advance of the committee's vote, Allegretti's primary opponent, former FBI agent Michael Grimm, wrote a blistering letter to the borough party, calling their Fossella shenanigans "dysfunctional" and their endorsement a "sham". Grimm is vowing to soldier on to the primary. Meanwhile, McMahon picked up the endorsement of the Staten Island Conservative Party this week.
  • SC-03: I don't have a dog in this race, but a good rule of thumb when it comes to contested GOP primaries is to root against whatever nutcase the Club for Growth has endorsed. That said, the Clubbers are spending $110K on a media buy in support of real estate broker and auctioneer Jeff Duncan in the open seat race to replace GOP Rep. Gresham Barrett. Write that one down on your scorecard!
  • TN-08: And speaking of "independent" expenditures, it's been mentioned several times in the digest that Robert Kirkland has been filing independent expenditures on behalf of his brother, physician Ron Kirkland, who's locked in a Republican primary battle with agribsuiness kingpin/humble gospel singer Stephen Fincher to replace retiring Dem Rep. John Tanner. For those keeping score, Rob has now spent a quarter of a million bucks on the race in a show of brotherly love.
  • James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/28 (Morning Edition)
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    SC-3
    Duncan and Rex rice are the heavyweights in this race.  Duncan has a good shot.  If he wins, SC could have 2 Clubbers, Tim Scott in SC-1 and Duncan in SC-3.  


    Not to mention
    Their hero in the Senate, Jim DeMint

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Jane Dyer
    Any chance Jane Dyer, the leading Dem candidate, can make any headway?

    [ Parent ]
    Wait, did I see that right?
    The Conservative Party endorsed the DEMOCRAT in NY-13?  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    Yeah
    it's a weird thing where conservative boss Molinaro likes McMahon and doesn't like the Staten Island Republican brass (for good reason given their ludicrous actions the past two cycles).  This was expected.

    In 2008, the Conservative Party ran its own candidate.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    I think this was in part to counter SEIU and the WFP
    When the labor folks threatened to pull the Working Families line from McMahon after he voted against Health Care Reform, the Conservative Party basically said "we've got your back" and offered to endorse him.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Senate race tightens in Nevada
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    Reid ahead of Angle, nearly even with the other two.


    Angle only one point down on Lowden
    Mixed feelings for Schumer and Durbin!

    [ Parent ]
    I don't think so,
    at least based on this poll.  Angle's our gal.  Lowden's favorables are better (41-28 vs. 29-23) and her support is firmer (67-24 "would definitely vote for Lowden" vs. 60-38 for Angle).  Plus Reid does six points better in the horserace against Angle.  

    My takeaway is that they are roughly equally inept, but Lowden is more likeable and better known (only 5% don't recognize vs. 16% for Angle).  This poll makes me want to cheer for Angle, but we'll see what others say...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    Except she makes Lowden and Ayn Rand Paul look almost sane by comparison.  Angle is a total nutjob.  Would not like to see her in the senate, but since Lowden would vote nearly the same way, I want Angle because she would be easier to beat.

    [ Parent ]
    Just finished Reading Atlas shrugged
    Have to say she's pretty convincing.

    Lowden's clearly the better choice. Angle's an absolute freak. I'm just hoping Tarkinian imploded or drops out so Lowden can consolidate the sane vote. Jesus, I hate the freakin' club for growth. Why couldn't they endorse one mainstream good rising GOP star candidate? Nikki Haley was crying out for support and where were they!?


    [ Parent ]
    god, that is a terrible book
    the only thing more ridiculous than her political philosophy is her literary ability.  i say that as a former ayn rand junkie who went to grad school to study philosophy and who now is deeply embarrassed that he ever thought rand was a serious thinker.

    [ Parent ]
    I think picking an opposing horse is a mistake based on this polling......
    spiderdem, all those numbers you cite are fluid.  Even the "certain to vote for" responses include a lot who aren't certain at all.  People change their minds later even when they don't think now they ever will.

    In truth these numbers all show comparable performance against Reid.  And the thing that would decide the ultimate outcome can't be gleaned from polling, it's how good a campaign each candidate runs.

    I have no doubt Reid wants Angle, and on the surface that makes sense, but that's based on assumptions about the Republican contenders' public image that could be wrong. Lowden went from sure winner to moron because her glaring weaknesses as a candidate became exposed.  I imagine this would only continue in the general election, where that would trump any posturing away from ideology that otherwise would appeal to nonpartisan voters.  Angle might be a whack job, but if her campaign puts together a good message and she's a disciplined campaigner, then she could win anyway.

    A big part of me hopes Lowden hangs on in spite of all notions of Angle being too conservative.  Lowden is a fuck-up, and that's worth a lot of votes for Reid, IMO more votes than Angle being too far right.  Nonpartisan voters tend to be less wary of someone they fear ideologically but view as a serious person nonetheless, than someone who they feel is personally embarrassing.  Lowden, not Angle, is personally embarrassing for the moment.

    Now, the scientology hit against Angle can turn that on its head, but we'll see.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Emily's List Major Fail
    Critique coming soon

    Diary About Emily's List Love for Former Wall Street Attorney
    [ Parent ]
    These issue groups are a joke
    On both sides. CfG for anyone? None of them take the big picture into account with their narrow focus.

    [ Parent ]
    what has EMILY's List done wrong here?
    They chose a pro-choice woman in an open-seat primary in a heavily D district.

    [ Parent ]
    They
    often strike out with their endorsements endorsing women more conservative than their districts/states as a whole. I could understand if they endorse incumbents, but most of the time their choices suck. They were also the ones that were pushing Martha Coakley's failure of a campaign.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    How about the fact she is
    "Former Wall Street securities attorney Terri Sewell" when there is another pro-choice woman running in said district?

    [ Parent ]
    So she developed skills and paid off HLS debt?
    That's a bad thing?

    [ Parent ]
    they passed over Sheila Smoot
    They had the opportunity to endorse Sheila Smoot, a well-known Jefferson County Commissioner, radio host, and progressive pro-choice African-American woman. Smoot has led the polls from the beginning, but stands the risk of losing her lead now that EMILY's List has pumped hundreds of thousands of out of state dollars into backing a Wall Street lawyer who has never held elective office.

    Worst possible outcome - because of EMILY's List involvement, it allows political hack Earl Hilliard to slip in between Smoot and Sewell - pretty much defeating EMILY's List goal of electing more pro-choice Democratic women to Congress.  


    [ Parent ]
    The Constitution should only apply
    If Rand Paul agrees with it.

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...


    Fisher ahead by 1, Strickland by 5, in Ohio Poll
    DSCC needs to go up with anti-Portman ads
    Yesterday. Very soon he will start portraying himself positively and by the time Fisher has the cash to respond it'll be too late. Strickland has already gone up and it seems to be working.  

    [ Parent ]
    Actually
    I think Portman's strategy is to raise as much cash as possible, not spend much and wait, wait, wait, then unleash an eMeg like barrage after Labor Day, and not letting up all the way through election day.  

    I'm not convinced it will work, but it's probably his best shot against Fisher.  What Portman has to do is try to erode Fisher's colossal base in northeast Ohio.  Failing that, he will have to run up huge margins in the rural west, in Cincinnati, and win most of the counties in southeast Ohio, where McCain did very well and where Fisher stunk it up in the primary.  Fisher and Strickland are practically tied at the hip being Gov and Lt.Gov, so if Strickland wins by more than 5%, it's hard to imagine Fisher not winning his race.  Ohio isn't a state with a lot of independents.  The democratic base is VERY democratic and the republican base is VERY republican.  That's why the state is always closely contested in 90% of statewide contests.  You won't see a lot of ticket splitting in these two contests.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Surprisingly few undecideds, fewer than any other poll......
    Even Rasmussen consistently has undecideds (including "some other candidate" which for Rasmussen I treat as "undecided") in the teens in OH-Sen, and they sample only strong Republicans for everything!

    I'm curious how there are only 7% undecided in an OH-Sen poll now, even after pushing leaners I'd expect that number higher in an open-seat race.

    Strickland surprises me less because he's the incumbent, more firm opinions of him.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen: Sestak leading.
    Still within the margin of error but definitely a positive trend.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

    http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    While the trend is good
    I'm skeptical of the party breakdown for this 2010 election

    D       47%
    R       39%
    I              14%

    Per the CNN 2008 exit poll, it was

    D            44
    R            37
    I            18

    I'm having trouble believing that the D portion of the vote will increase.


    [ Parent ]
    If you alter the poll to match those cross-tabs
    Worst that you get is a tie.  Considering Sestak was down 5 last poll...

    [ Parent ]
    I agree, the crosstabs are way off, and this race is closer to a legit tie
    That said, the internals tell a decent story. For Pat Toomey to win, he must win the Pittsburgh area, which he isn't here. Also, I suspect if Sestak wins the Philly suburbs by any more than 15%, he wins; he's up 22% here.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    So
    the job that the W.H. offered Sestak if he dropped out of the race early on was becoming an unpaid advisor to the White House. By the rhetoric coming out of Darrell Issa and Senate Republican's mouth, you would think Sestak would of gotten an ambassadorship or a member of the cabinet.

    http://www.politico.com/politi...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    ambassadorships
    If anything would violate the bribery statutes it would be the donation for ambassadorship.  It doesn't.  And even if a cabinet position was offered, it doesn't come close either.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't like the strategy
    No story dies on the vine when you involve Bill.  

    [ Parent ]
    Unpaid?!
    "Bitch, please" is what I wouldve told Bill.

    [ Parent ]
    It's going to start to get even better...
    Talked to a group of conservative party leaders in Northern PA. They do not feel very excited about Corbett/Toomey. One even said they'd "jump the party line". Mainstream Republicans, at least in this area of PA, are REALLY turned off by the Tea Party bullshit.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    I thought they would be enthusiastic since Corbett was fighting the good fight against Health Care Reform, and Toomey was seen as the hero who chased Specter out of the Republican party and was going to defeat him in November.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    NW
    And North Central. And I can't really tell you why they're not warming up to them. They just don't seem to be enthuastic about it.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Speaking of 2012
    Kicking Leibermann's ass, again, is going to be my favorite part about that.  No single race has the potential to top that satisfaction.  

    I still think Lieberman's got a shot, albeit a kinda minor one
    Presuming the GOP fields another nobody like Schlesinger, and Dems score a solid recruit like Chris Murphy or Susan Bysiewicz, I see a race like...

    Dem - 42%
    Indie - 30%
    GOP - 28%

    Lieberman - 20/40/65 = 38%
    Dem - 80/50/5 = 50%
    GOP - 0/10/30 = 12%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    What if?
    Jodi Rell runs. Do you see her being able to beat the Dem and Lieberman? What if Lieberman runs as a Republican?  

    [ Parent ]
    Lemme work my magic...
    Dem - 42%
    Indie - 30%
    GOP - 28%

    Lieberman - 10/30/40 = 24%
    Rell - 15/30/55 = 30%
    Dem - 75/40/5 = 46%

    Lieberman - 20/45/90 = 47%
    Dem - 80/55/10 = 53%

    Obviously, I suspect Lieberman's best option is finally go the extra mile and switch parties. To win, he'll need to consolidate the vast majority of GOP-ers, which wouldn't be doable if the party fielded a third candidate.

    For kicks, my thoughts on Rell/Dem, in the rare instance that Lieberman sees blood in the water and retires...

    Rell - 20/55/95 = 52%
    Dem - 80/45/5 = 48%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Does anyone here still expect Rell to run?
    Cause I think the 3rd part is likely if she does. I could also see a very close 3 way with her. It used to be certain that she was going to run, now its unlikely, imo.  

    [ Parent ]
    You know
    when the whole Vietnam thing broke out, I thought Blumenthal was DOA in November. But seeing that the NYT basically published the McMahon campaign's opposition research without fully checking it, I feel a little more easier. Not that Blumenthal is out of the woods, but the NYT shot themselves in the foot over this.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    He's out of the woods
    I think the race is what it's been:  safe Democratic.

    [ Parent ]
    Generally Agree
    It does give him much less margin for error, though. Even an unrelated (even one not related to an honesty issues)screw-up could do retroactive damage.

    [ Parent ]
    As I've said before, I was guilty of overreacting......
    Voters just aren't as information-sensitive as junkies.  I recognize that on a lot of things in the news cycle, but I thought this NYT story would make a bigger dent in the public consciousness.

    I think the pushback, including the revelation of how sloppy a job the NYT did, really undercut the potential damage to Blumenthal.  That the NYT ignored contradictory information and was flat-out wrong about Blumenthal having been on the Harvard swim team hurt them and made them more of a story then I ever imagined they would be.

    And ultimately it's going to be hard for McMahon to use this against Blumenthal in any larger narrative.  There's going to have to be other stuff out there to raise legitimate questions about Blumenthal's integrity for the military record story to have any legs going forward.

    I'm very encourageed that this is a safe seat once again.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Totally agree that voters just aren't as information-sensitive as junkies
    I think that's why I wouldnt breath a sign of relief yet. (and yes I know everyone get on me for being down on Dick  Blumenthal)

    Just like the Nikki Haley affair most voters gives these things time to process. The real question is does Blumenthal become the butt of jokes (and yes I avoided the temptation to write does Dick become the butt of jokes).

    If he does I think it could get worst for him. When things fall apart for pols is when they become laughingstocks. The fact that Joe Biden is making jokes at his expense and Chris Matthews keep harping on him will not help.


    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Possible but unlikely
    Not when people don't like his opponent.

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, McMahon isn't the least bit likeable, and sucks the oxygen out of political jokes...
    ...in that Senate race.

    That's why the state GOP really needed Simmons, and they blew it.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    I think McMahon was the better candidate for the GOP before the NY Times story. The race was all Blumenthal and McMahon was a free $50 million hail mary pass by the GOP.

    After the NY Times story the GOP's best hope was for Blumenthal to be seen as a joke. A sort of Martha Coakley type out of touch gaffe prone AG. To win that race the GOP need a Scott Brown type straight talking everyman. Rob Simmon would have been the better person to play that role. He would have been the real Vietnam Vet vs the fake one.

    Instead with McMahon as a candidate I think this race will turn ugly fast which in my opinion is not to Blumenthal or the Dems benefit. Come November I think a lot of CT voters will be trying to decided which one of these two jokers are less of a joke.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Seems to me you
    Saying the GOP "wins" either way. Again, and I see you have still yet to respond to this point, McMahon's favorables are under water so how does she take advantage in a blue state?

    [ Parent ]
    NO!
    I just dont think it will be a cakewalk or a blowout. I think this race went from Safe Dem to Leans Dem with the potential to be a race to watch.

    Either way I think will all the seats Dems have to defend this cycle this is a headache they didnt need.

    After Dodd dropped out and Blumenthal got in I put this in the same catagory of safe as the OR and NY-B races. Now I think it will be a much tougher potential race.

    Even though these polls now show a blowout I dont think that is anyway firm and I wont rest easy about CT-Sen.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    If this only lean Dem
    Then Patty Murray is in deep-doo. It is more competitive certainly but since he was up so much before it hardly makes it a "headache". Particularly when the opponent, though she has money, doesn't come across well and has poor favorables.

    [ Parent ]
    I had CT-Sen at Lean Dem in my recent projections, but I'd surely beef it up to Likely Dem now
    I'm in the minority who thinks McMahon's actually a pretty appealing candidate, but CT voters seem to trust Blumenthal too much for him to lose. I will say this, she appears to be shoring up her GOP base. Which, in CT, is of course still only 30%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    I'm going by the polling
    Consistently more people have a unfavorable view. When you start out that way it is really tough to change minds and it doesn't bode well for persuading undecideds. For me the whole thing has moved it from perhaps 60-40 to 55-45 at best.  

    [ Parent ]
    The last 2 polls show this race is SAFE Dem, very much so.....
    The Q-poll and DailyKos were very consistent in giving Blumenthal MASSIVE leads over McMahon, and these were AFTER the scandal had all the time needed to penetrate voters.  And both polls showed Blumenthal still with strong favorables.

    The only other poll was the cooked Rasmussen poll, and even Scott Rasmussen couldn't load the dice to produce a tie, giving Blumenthal a 48-45 edge over McMahon.  And that was hard on the heels of the NYT story, too.  I'm at the point where I now give at least a 10-point discount to Rasmussen, so if they have Blumenthal up 3, he's really up at least 13.

    Blumenthal's public image just isn't taking a hit from this.  Most voters still like him just fine.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Which is what some of us were saying at the time
    The fact he had built up so much goodwill over two decades meant he could weather this in the way a rookie couldn't.

    [ Parent ]
    Well "some of us" were right, and I applaud you all since that didn't include me! (nm)
    nm

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    Based on polling and the heavy Democratic lean of the state
    this race is Likely-D, not Lean-D, much as you dislike Blumenthal. One argument against that is McMahon's money, but I don't think that's sufficient to argue for Lean-D.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Simmons...
    We know when this poll took place? Simmons dropped out of the race and he's still within 4 points of McMahon.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    52% isn't spectacular, but things are looking back-to-good for Blumey
    The only piece of solace McMahon can take here is that the 25-30% of GOP-ers who were backing Blumenthal pre-Vietnam seem to have moved back into her playfield. She needs to improve big time among Indies to be competitive.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Nikki Haley still in the lead by 10
    By some Miraculous intervention, Nikki Haley is maintaining her lead in the South Carolina GOP Gubernatorial primary.

    http://www.southernpoliticalre...

    I tell ya, she must be some candidate if she can overcome this affair, her unknown persona in the state, her chronic fundraising shortfall, running against popular congressmen, Lt. Govs and SofSs all of whom have big name endorsements and have multiples of her coh plus the fact that she's both a young woman and Indian in the darkest depts of the deep south.

    If she can win this primary, Presidential race in 2016 will be a breeze!  


    No one believes it
    Will Folks is a joke. No one believes him anymore. If anything, I see it HELPING her b/c of sympathy. Oh, and the Lt. Gov she's running against: NOT popular, at all. The reason Mark Sanford impeachment charges were dropped is b/c no one wanted to see him as Gov. Her strongest opponent is popular AG Henry McMaster, not SoS.

    [ Parent ]
    Not a joke, the evidence is getting damning......
    The text exchanges with Haley's and another candidate's campaign managers, and the records of middle-of-the-night phone calls, are hard for Haley to explain away.

    I don't doubt that Republican primary voters are complete hypocrites on sexual morality, they truly believe the rules don't apply to them.  And Haley might survive because of that.

    But I went from skeptical of Folks' unsubstantiated claims, to convinced the affair happened.  The trail of evidence is already compelling.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    He was an adviser
    If he was an adviser to her, its natural they would be talking. He has been shopping the story for a year, trying to sell it for big bucks. One campaign told him they'd buy it if Haley proved a threat.  

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    On the face of it could be legit. We shall see if more comes out. Talking until 5am does smell a litte fishy.

    [ Parent ]
    Well yeah
    But why does he refuse to release text messages? This second part isn't proof nothing happened, just human nature: Hot married women don't have affairs with ugly men.  

    [ Parent ]
    Mark Souder disagrees


    [ Parent ]
    So does Newt Gingrich....
    and a whole host of other politicians who've also been caught up in these things.

    [ Parent ]
    Difference:
    Souder and Gingrich owere the powerful ones, making up for their lack of hotness. Here Haley is the powerful politician, so she should indeed find someone better (not that she did with her husband...)

    33, living in Germany  

    [ Parent ]
    He's claiming
    That there is a picture of him and her in a "comprimising position" taken by a privat investigator who was tracking him.

    Look, I hate to go down to this level, but Haley's hot, Folks is not. On that level, It don't make sence. And as one Judge Judy always says, If it don't make sence, It ain't true!


    [ Parent ]
    You're completely wrong. Women aren't as visual as men......
    Women will go for a guy who's not on their same level of physical appearance if he's got other things going for him.  That can be professional success, or a quick wit, or just the fact of an emotionally close bond built over time, from a working or other platonic relationship, that gets her interested in a guy who wouldn't otherwise get the time of day from her.

    And I'm sorry, Haley is not that hot.  She's attractive, but she doesn't stop traffic.  I'm Indian-American myself, and while my wife is white, in my single years I dated and met plenty of Indian-American women clearly more attractive than Haley.  The appearance gap between Haley and Folks is real, but not overwhelming.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Besides, it's South Carolina
    ...and the Folks dude has all his teeth, so he can't be considered that ugly. (joke!)

    And DCCyclone is right--it's actually a scientific fact that women contextualize hottness while men basically get excited when they see a big chest or a nice body, regardless of who it's attached to. There was an interesting study that I can't find right now that basically said that women will find the exact same man hotter if he's wearing a suit vs. shorts &  t-shirt, while men aren't affected by clothes (except, apparently, when women wear red, they find that hot).

    And maybe I'm just slutty, but I've slept with people who are significantly hotter, and significantly less hot, than I am. If they were working closely together, I could easily see a relationship developing.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    Please don't parrot Erickson
    n/t

    [ Parent ]
    You don't talk that much in the middle of the night to a shady advisor......
    He's been a controversial figure for a long time, so why is he her "advisor" at all?  And why is she relying on him so much that she's talking to him for hours in the middle of the night?

    That doesn't make any sense.

    Nikki is married with kids.  I'm married with kids, I know that life.  You don't have that involved a relationship with someone of the opposite sex, and not have it be sexual, except under extremely unusual circumstances.  If it's her campaign manager or otherwise a deep insider in the campaign, that could be such a circumstance.  But Folks ain't and was never that.

    The text messages between Folks and Haley's CM make clear they were coordinating a response, which you don't do, it wouldn't even occur to you, to deal with a false rumor.  If there was no sexual contact, you don't worry about what to say or coordinate a response with the alleged paramour.

    And Haley's camp has gone into silence about all this.

    The compilation of evidence combined with Haley's reaction is pretty damning of her.

    It sure looks like Haley had an affair with Folks, and she never told her husband about it--and that's why she started with a cold denial.  That this came out just as she was surging in the polls at just the right time, soon before the primary, made it even harder to fess up.

    If she doesn't come clean soon, this is going to get only uglier.  It gets harder and harder to explain away what frankly is hard evidence that keeps trickling out.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think people are waiting to see...
    I think the reason the polls havent moved is people are waiting to see if its true or not. They are giving her the benifit of the doubt.

    But if Folks is lying and made up the story I thnik everyone (myself included) would feel a lot of sympathy for Nikki Haley and her family.

    Regardless of what your politics are you dont want to see anybody's family go threw that kind of ordeal. People realy put themselves and their families on the line when they run for public office. It's one thing to have your foibles exposed to the world. It's quite another to be slandered for political gain.

    If Folks made this up where does Nikki Haley go to get her reputaion back?


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    [ Parent ]
    Hard for me to see how this story is false......
    No doubt Folks is a neurotic sleezebag.  The very way he's leaking all this crap is completely self-serving in driving up his blog traffic, while also screaming out "scorned man."  He's mad at Nikki now, no doubt, and acting out in the worst way possible.

    But everything he's released for hard evidence points to an affair actually happening.  It's virtually impossible to reconcile the text messages and phone records with a scenario where there was no sexual contact between Folks and Haley.

    I think she never told her husband about the affair, and this blowup is the first he's ever heard of it.  And that's why she issued an insta-denial.  And now she's gone into radio silence trying to figure out what to do next, since Folks is pissed and bent on spilling the dirt.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I've texted and phoned plenty of woman I didnt have sex with!
    Come on text messages and phone records alone arent proof. If he was a political advisor of some kind of course they would have talked and text. That in itself is not proof of an affair. And Folks still has not released any actual proof. (i.e. racy text messages, emails, pictures, ect).

    It still a he said she said and Nikki firmly denies it.

    If it proves true she is done. If she lied about it after Folks went public it makes the whole thing even worse for her. It destroys her credibility.

    This is really all or nothing for Nikki Haley. Either she slept with him and she is a big fat liar or she has been viciously slandered and her husband and young children have been put through this for nothing.

    It's high stakes either way.

    Unless the content of those texts prove otherwise

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    [ Parent ]
    You're missing what I'm saying......
    I'm not talking about text messages between Folks and Haley, I'm talking about text messages between Folks and Pearson, who is Haley's campaign manager.  Those text messages consist of Pearson and Folks trying to work out what to say about the alleged affair.  Pearson has confirmed their authenticity but claims it was still regarding what to say about a "false rumor."

    My point is that if there was no sexual relationship, then those text messages don't make any sense.

    Did you actually read them?  They raise eyebrows quite a bit.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Woops!
    I misread and thought you meant between Haley and Folks.

    Even so I think conversations between Pearson and Folks is even less proof of an affair. If Folks is making it up how hard is it for him to call Pearson before he went public and say "hey there are these rumors out there" and start a conversation about it. Then later use those talks as his proof.

    Like I said this is all or nothing for Haley. Either she is a liar and a cheater or she has been badly smeared.

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    [ Parent ]
    He released them!?
    Where can I read them?  

    [ Parent ]
    What the hell
    is this?

    "Another question in the InsiderAdvantage/Statehouse Report poll suggests some respondents might be fed up with answering questions about affairs because almost 17 percent of Republican voters and 22 percent of Independents said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate accused of actually having an extramarital affair - and that seems counterintuitive in the current 'family values' political climate."  


    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Brings a whole new meaning
    To "swing voters" don't it!

    [ Parent ]
    Alaska Senate
    Glad to hear the Democrats have found a credible live body in the Senate race. In all odds McAdams will be a sacrificial lamb against Murkowski.

    But don't forget that there is a tea-bagger running against Murkowski in the Republican primary - Joe Miller (Todd Palin's anointed candidate). If he somehow manages to oust Murkowski, having a viable Democrat in place could turn out to be a valuable thing.  


    i'd like to believe you
    But Begich barely won.  In any other state with similar circumstances, Stevens would have lost by a landslide.  I dont have a lot of hope for Alaska.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

    [ Parent ]
    People underestimated Palin coattails in 2008, surprisingly even AFTER the election......
    I as much as anyone underestimated what I think were simply Palin coattails in 2008.  Occam's Razor, the simplest explanation is usually the right one.  And that enthusiasm for the favorite daughter, the state's first candidate on a national ticket, translated into support for her party downballot in a way that polling missed, is the simplest explanation.

    Keep in mind Alaska doesn't otherwise have any history of failing to detect Republican support in polling.  So one must ask, "what was different THIS time?"  And the only thing that was different was Palin as the the GOP VP nominee.

    What surprises me is that I don't recall seeing the coattails argument anywhere on blogs or in the political media AFTER the 2008 election.  That no one even mentioned it remains a mystery to me.

    But I have no doubt that a, say, McCain-Lieberman ticket would have made Alaska real close for Obama at the top of the ballot, Stevens would have been blown out, and Don Young would have lost handily.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I suspect a McCain/Lieberman ticket would've performed roughly the same
    Tighter in New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, but not enough to flip. McCain may have actually lost ground in Georgia and South Carolina.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Oh, disagree completely, McCain-Lieberman would've been a disaster for the GOP......
    The whole problem was that while Repubs love to have Lieberman as a big thorn in Democrats' side, they know and have always known he's too liberal on too many issues to be a Republican.

    There would have been a huge floor fight over the VP nomination, which McCain would have won to get Lieberman on the ticket, but the conservative Republican base would have been demotivated in every state, and Republican turnout would have tanked.

    McCain-Lieberman would have grossed fewer votes and smaller vote share in every state, IMO.  Obama would have won all the states he won plus he would have turned Montana, Missouri, and Georgia, thanks to depressed GOP turnout, and perhaps a few other states, realistically even Arizona.

    The notion McCain had of a "bipartisan" ticket with Lieberman is not what Americans wanted.  And Lieberman himself is not a draw for anyone.

    Steve Schmidt and other close McCain advisors were right to steer McCain away from that disaster.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Especially if people remembered Lieberman from 2000. Would they really trust a guy who ran on a ticket with Al Gore and then McCain?  

    [ Parent ]
    And think about this...
    had it actually been McCain/Lieberman, would Democrats have picked up even more House and Senate seats, given the depressed GOP turnout?  Does Saxby Chambliss perhaps lose on Election Day in Georgia?  Does Charlie Brown beat Tom McClintock in CA-04 (there's a substantial pro-life Catholic contingent in that district that adores Sarah Palin)?  And so on, and so on.

    Heck, would Prop. 8 still have passed in California, if enough right-wingers were sick enough to just sit the election out completely?


    [ Parent ]
    Yup, the coattails would have been truly historic......
    It really would have devastated the GOP.

    What's more fun and harder to game out to me is actually what would have happened the past couple years.

    No matter how much Senate Dems have treated Lieberman as a prodigal son, I have to think being McCain's running mate would have been the straw that broke the camel's back and forced him out of the caucus.  Needless to say, he'd be an indy caucusing with the GOP right now.

    But yeah, we might've picked up another seat to make up the difference.  Maybe Lunsford beats McConnell, or as you suggested, BruinKid, maybe Chambliss goes down to Martin.  I bet we would've gotten one of 'em, so we still would've entered the 110th Congress with 59 Senators, and then Specter still would've switched to make it 60.

    I think Obama's policies would've been the same.  And we'd be in the same boat right now regarding "national environment."  But we'd have about 10 more House seats than we have, for a larger buffer, and of course more state-level offices from the massive coattails.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    I think McCain/Lieberman would have won FL
    It was close enough that the consequent shift in the Jewish vote would have swung that state, despite any loss of proto-teabaggers.

    The big unknown is whether McCain/Lieberman would have brought in more moderates, in contrast to how Sarah turned them off. Lieberman would never have talked about "real America," for example.


    [ Parent ]
    No, the numbers don't add up to support shifting FL......
    Obama's margin in Florida was 236,450 votes, out of roughly 8.4 million total votes.

    Exit polls showed the Jewish vote at just 4% of the total, and in fact the Jewish subsample was too small to publish results!  If the exit poll was right, the total Florida Jewish vote would have been roughly 336,000.  If you assume, say, a 75-25 split in Obama's favor as was the case nationally, that translates to Obama winning Jewish Floridians by a 168,000-vote margin.  Erasing that altogether by splitting the Jewish vote 50-50 still leaves Obama with a 68,000-vote margin.  And erasing that remaining margin entirely by shifting Jewish voters would require McCain to carry the Florida Jewish vote by a 60-40 spread.

    That's just not remotely realistic.  Jewish voters are Democrats for a reason, they're not going to vote reflexively for a Jew on a Republican ticket just because he's Jewish; only a fraction of Jewish voters will shift, and to think Obama would lose nearly one-half of his Jewish votes with Lieberman running on a Republican ticket is absurd.

    Identity voting is exaggerated.  Yes there was dramatic movement by black voters for Obama, but that's in the context of centuries of slavery and de jure segregation targeted against blacks that ended formally only relatively recently, in many current voters' lifetime.

    And identity voting is subservient to party voting.  Black voters don't shift much, and often not even slightly, to support a black Republican over a white Democrat.

    Lieberman would not have carried Florida for McCain.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    There would have been some anti-Semites
    who would have refused to vote for a ticket that included a Jew. I wouldn't hazard a guess how many, though.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Anti-Semites would be trivial compared to the REAL problem, which is...
    ...that hard-core conservatives simply wouldn't show up to vote.  Indeed, I have no doubt in Florida, as everywhere else, Obama would have won by MORE rather than less, as McCain would have lost more conservative voters who stayed home than he'd have gained Jewish voters who flipped from Obama.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    I definitely agree with everything you said
    And another thing to note, Palin was the most popular governor in the country at this time, with approval ratings in the 80's IIRC.

    [ Parent ]
    Unknown how much Palin's coattails helped in '08
    But I believe that many voters -- when faced with pollsters will say one thing

    and when faced with a ballot with a favorite candidate atop the ticket, will vote in another direction.

    Perhaps the difference in the late polls (favoring both Berkowitz and Begich) and the final result is a measure of the coattails of a popular governor.  


    [ Parent ]
    Art Coday drops out of WA sen race, endorses Rossi
    http://www.facebook.com/note.p...
    Coday was considered the 4th strongest candidate behind Benton, Akers, and Didier.  

    Chicken Woman vrs. Scientology Stooge
    I thought that the limit of crass stupidity had been reached with Sue Lowdens chicken swap for health care in Bartertown.  I admit I am wrong about that.  Her tea party/tea bagger opponent is even more brain dead.  Just do a Google search of Sharron Angle and Scientology and see what you get.  That's right folks, she took a bite on the $cientology hook and swallowed it right up to the gut.  She backed Narconon, a phoney drug rehab outfit with a bad track record that is nothing more than a Scientology front group.  How stupid could she be?  Even the slightest bit of research would have been enough to tip her off to the link.  This shows a huge lack of judgement and after all, in the end, isn't judgement what we are looking for in a politician??  And this was more than just a one time event, she has been in bed with this nasty cult for a while now.  All of this should worry the hell out of Nevada voters if she gets past the primary. -Rollo Weems

    Rollo "Rob" Weems

    The world according to R2K.
    So I looked at R2K's most recent poll of each of the competitive Senate races for which the candidates are set, and projected the results assuming that undecideds break the same way as decideds.  Here are the results:

    IL - Kirk (R) 50.2, Giannoulias (D) 49.8
    IN - Ellsworth (D) 50.1, Coates (R) 49.9
    KY - Conway (D) 50.4, Paul (R) 49.6
    OH - Fisher (D) 51.2, Portman (R) 48.8
    PA - Sestak (D) 52.2, Toomey (R) 47.8

    That would make for an exciting election night.  Food for thought...

    The IL poll was right after the bad news broke on the Giannoulias family bank.  The IN poll was pre-primary and around the time that Coates was taking some flack for hating on Indiana.  The OH poll was pre-primary.  KY and PA were this week.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Charlie Cook quotes
    "As the first independent analyst to push the argument that Democrats would likely suffer significantly higher midterm losses than average for the party in power, I'm scratching my head over the 8-point Democratic margin of victory in the special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa."

    You said it!

    "The week before the special election, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" after several weeks of off-track messaging by the Burns campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee, and other telltale signs the campaign had lost its way."

    A couple days after it was moved in the other direction!

    http://www.cookpolitical.com/n...


    Bottom line
    from the end of Cook's article, w/r/t PA-12

    But only one side had a first-class effort worthy of the importance of this race, which raises the question of whether Republicans can handle 70 or so races of this magnitude in November.

    money bit from the middle (bolding mine)

    The GOP's "72-hour program," said to be the most sophisticated and effective voter identification and get-out-the-vote program in American politics, apparently was somewhere outside district borders. Republicans apparently won easily among stay-at-home non-voters.


    [ Parent ]
    Positive press for Meg Whitman
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

    If that SurveyUSA poll showing a tie really was an outlier, I doubt Poizner can come back in just over a week, meaning there's a pretty good chance we get to face someone who is in the news for trying to buy an election. yes! :D

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    CT-04
    All those Republicans really think they can defeat Hymes, eh? That district has a significant Democratic lean, and kept reelecting moderate Republicans until last time. Now, Hymes is an incumbent. I don't give any Republican more than a weak chance to win. Likely-D.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  



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