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NV-Sen: Porter Reconsidering Senate Bid

by: James L.

Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 7:29 PM EDT


With Harry Reid posting a remarkable ability to lose to just about any name the Nevada GOP can put forward (no matter how far down they are on the NRSC's recruiting list), I guess it shouldn't be considered a surprise that someone like ex-Rep. Jon Porter is reconsidering his decision not to run for Senate:

The buzz is growing that former Republican Rep. Jon Porter is reconsidering an earlier decision to stay out of the Senate race against Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010.

Chuck Muth, a longtime Republican operative in the state, said the word in Nevada GOP circles is that "Jon Porter is seriously talking about wanting to get into this race, after all."

Porter ruled out a challenge to Reid in June, but the lure of recent poll numbers showing Reid trailing several relatively unknown GOP challengerss are apparently proving hard to resist.

"He absolutely is talking to the folks at the senatorial committee and some money people," to see if there is an appetite for his candidacy, said Muth, who is heading up an anti-Reid political action committee, Dump Reid PAC, to raise money for his opponent.

The fact that Porter lost in 2008 and that he decided to stick around in DC to work as a lobbyist rather than return home to Nevada might be considered liabilities, but I'm not sure if any of that really matters right now given the pretty severe level of voter dissatisfaction against Reid in every poll we've seen of this race in the last little while. If Porter runs, he'll at least be as formidable as the other candidates in the field (who are all pasting Reid), but I doubt that people like Amodei, Lowden, and Tarkanian will abandon the race in deference to Porter. However, perhaps there's a chance that Porter will help further divide the "moderate" vote and let a growther like Sharron Angle slip through the GOP primary, but I haven't seen much evidence that Angle is running a real campaign so far.

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James L. :: NV-Sen: Porter Reconsidering Senate Bid
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Obama should tell Reid not to run for reelection


26, male, Dem, NJ-12

I wish he would
I would very seriously consider voting for the Repub if I lived in Nevada, just to get rid of Reid as Majority Leader.  He has been that bad, and there is no other way to get rid of this guy.

[ Parent ]
Lolz. Touche.
Although in fairness, New York has a boatload of elected Democrats who could hold the governorship, some without even breaking a sweat.  Nevada has... Harry Reid.  Shelley Berkley is probably too far left for the statewide electorate.  Dina Titus and Barbara Buckley would each have a decent shot at holding the seat, but there's little proof so far that either one of them would be a better candidate than Reid.  (Although either one would be a better senator, almost certainly.)  Plus Dina Titus would leave a vacant House seat that could easily swing Republican.

If Reid were posting re-elects in the teens, and Buckley or Titus were posting numbers in the sixties, and they were holding off from a primary against Reid for fear that he would use the race card to destroy them in the general, then yeah, sure, Obama should intervene.  But -- assuming your comment was tongue-in-cheek in the first place, which it might not have been -- you might not agree.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


[ Parent ]
Berkley isn't too far left
She's a New Dem, and Nevada gave Obama 55% of the vote. Also whoever replaces her in her D+10 district will probably be more liberal.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
I'd Prefer Ross Miller
The Secretary of State. He's the son of the former governor Bob Miller, he's young and he's a pretty clean face for Nevada Democrats, free from scandal as far as I know. If he ran, then next year's cycle will feature three Secretary of States running (Carnahan, Brunner if she beats Fisher, and Miller).

About Porter, this might be a good thing. If he jumped in then it would be a three way primary between himself, Tarkanian and Lowden. While only a Congressman for a short time, Porter has some recognition especially from the Las Vegas suburbs. A protracted primary with him and two newbies might drain the financial resources of all three just enough for Reid to squeak back in.

Now, only if Dean Heller were ambitious enough also...:-)


[ Parent ]
Basically good news
Reid has a better chance against a retread rather than an unknown.

And the more bitter the primary for them, the better.  if they fall all over themselves running to the right, all the better.

Smaller point, Reid seems likely to lose so who beats him matters and Porter is not bad (not a hopeless wingnut, but also not someone likely to be unbeatable in six years).


I actually think Porter is the one Repub
who could lose to Reid. Other than Jim Gibbons of course.

Here's the math
Let Reid loose. Dems can spend their money protecting CO and CT and pick up MO, OH, NH, and NC. Then the Dems will have a 63-37 edge in the senate. Thus Chuck Schumer can become majority leader and the dems can actually get stuff done. Also if Reid looses Ensign is definatly going down in 2002, probably to Shelley Berkley or Dina Titus. Also we need to discourage Rory Reid from running, let Ross Miller take out Gibbons instead.

Mmmmm . . .
Strategery!

Remember, because the Rs are going to nominate Mark Kirk, we will need to defend IL-Sen as well, while possibly throwing some cash to AR-Sen and PA-Sen.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
With Gianoulias' Money
The DSCC might not need to throw IL too much money. (unless Cheryle Jackson pulls off a miracle in the primary- which I wouldn't necessarily mind...).

[ Parent ]
And this attitude is the reason I suspect
is why Reid is losing.  Unless the GOP nominates someone like Michelle Bachmann who scares the hell out of the Democratic base and independents, Reid will lose.

I agree with your rationale, by the way.  Harry Reid is the GOP's best friend. If I was Mitch McConnell, I would do what I can to get Reid reelected.


[ Parent ]
Harry Reid's senate seat would never have been an issue
had they chosen someone elese as majority leader. This was the biggest mistake that the dems made in the wake of the 2004 disaster.

[ Parent ]
I was to young to remember...
but was Tom Daschle that great of a majority leader?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
No, he sucked, too. (eom)


[ Parent ]
Who was the last good senate majority leader?
Yes Reid sucks.  But come to think of it so did Frist; Daschel was blah; Lott was terrible; for a Republican, I suppose Dole was alright.  But who was the last good majority leader?

[ Parent ]
Well,
Mitchell was okay - got the job by owning Ollie North during the Iran-Contra hearings and at least used his position decisively to push through legislation the President supported. This included good things like the Clean Air Act and Americans With Disabilities Act as well as bad things like NAFTA and the formation of the WTO.

Byrd was also decent, albeit much more on the wrong side of civil rights then than he is now. Byrd was especially well known for masterfully manipulating arcane Senate procedures no one else had ever heard of to give the Republican heartburn. In 1988, he actually once had recalcitrant Republicans arrested by the Sergeant At Arms and forced to return to the chamber until he'd obtained a quorum. Reid allegedly knows the same procedures, but doesn't have half of the balls.

Going way back, one of the best Democratic majority leaders of all time - other than LBJ, of course - was Alben Barkley, who was so good at getting FDR's agenda through the Senate that Harry Truman later selected him as Vice President.

Really, there are a lot of them. Just not since around 1994, which I don't think is an accident. There are too many Dems elected around that time - or who survived the GOP wave - who are stuck in that self-defeating DLC bunker mentality, and unfortunately, with the way the Dems organize their caucus, the guys who get rewarded with the top job for seniority's sake are always complete sellouts like Daschle and Reid who are afraid of their own shadows.  


[ Parent ]
Daschle defeated Chris Dodd
by 1 vote in 1995 for minority leader.  If it had went the other way, Dodd would be majority leader.  He probably would have been much more effective than Reid, but boy the scandals would have hurt.

[ Parent ]
He might've been more careful, if he had been Majority Leader.
He also might've had a bunch of other stuff happen to him.  The fluent Spanish would have been nice (Dodd was a Peace Corps Volunteer in the Dominican Republic).  But we really should have our Majority Leaders be from solid blue states.  Fortunately Durbin and Schumer both are.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Not only that
The deciding vote was cast by Ben Nighthorse-Campbell... who promptly switched parties shortly afterward.

[ Parent ]
Last good majority leader
was George Mitchell during Bush 41's term. The last great majority leader was Mike Mansfield, who led the Senate from 1961 to 1977. His seat is now held by Jon Tester.


[ Parent ]
The problem was that Reid
always could fall back on the 15 seats that the Dems picked up in the last two cycles.  That is/was the strong trump card he always could play.

But it didn't have to work out that way.  In early 2009, it looked like Mike Duncan could be reelected as RNC Chairman.  If that had happened, it would have been the greatest irony, the party Chairman who had great successes was pushed out (Dean), and the one who was a failure would have been reelected.


[ Parent ]
I highly doubt
the Nevada electorate is really thinking that far ahead, in terms of a chess game.  Sure, maybe plenty of Democrats are thinking that, the dude sucks as our majority leader, but Id be willing to bet those same people who thinks he sucks as majority leader are telling the pollers, REID REID REID I WILL VOTE FOR REID!  It's sure easy to say, god that dude sucks I almost wish he'd just lose anyway, from across the country.  Hard to say that when he's your own Senator and you dont want to be represented by another Republican.  (Case in point, me with Franken, didnt like him as a candidate nor as a campaigner, I sure as shit didnt want to see him lose, though.  Like him a lot as a Senator thus far!)

I think Reid just sucks and Nevada hasnt really ever liked him anyway.  Now the climate has changed and their sick of seeing his face.


[ Parent ]
Obama won Nevada by 12%
I seriously think that there is a good chunk of Democrats who want to see him lose in Nevada, and they are not DINOs.

Unless the GOP candidate is someone that angers the Democratic base and turns off independents heavily (like say Bachmann), I think Reid will lose and he should.

It is quite different than Franken who was one junior senator.  If Reid loses, we get a major upgrade for majority leader.


[ Parent ]
I don't follow your math
The idea that Reid will lose, but the Democrats will hold and win all those other seats, is very counter-intuitive. If Reid loses, isn't it likely to be part of an anti-Democratic or at least anti-incumbent mood?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Think Mark Pryor in 2002
And Ken Salazar in 2004. There are often exceptions.

[ Parent ]
OK, but does that make this scenario LIKELY?
I doubt it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
No point being
Each race has unique factors. For instance I think Dems will win MO and OH regardless of the national environment - the Repub candidates are that weak.

[ Parent ]
It is a real possibility
Reid is performing poorly because those who tilt to the left are abandoning him, quite different than Dems who are struggling in other states.

It is very possible that 2010 is a neutral year, and Reid loses because some liberals vote None of the Above or GOP.


[ Parent ]
NV
How many ways can one person say Chuck should be our Majority Leader.

The stupidity of the Democrats in the Senate to allow Reid to become Majority Leader after Daschle still astounds me.  Yes, I understand the system, and seniority and ranking and who's next, but it was still a horrible move.  You don't put people like Harry Reid into leadership roles period.

29/D/Male/NY-01


To be fair
Reid is primarily responsible for convincing Jim Jeffords to switch parties, giving us 18 months of Senate control during the most crazily right-wing period of the post-9/11 era.  I'll praise him for that, while damning him for everything else he's done since then.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
To Be Even More Fair...
As Minority Leader, he was helpful, he nailed a lot of the procedural moves. I remember the Kos kids praising him in 2005.

The thing is, the Maj. Leader job is shitty. Even the guys we praised above had glaring problems in their tenure (Mitchell and health care, Byrd and civil rights, Mansfield basically gave Nixon everything he wanted, etc.) This is not to say that Reid isn't shitty; but if the job so often attracts these shitty people, we gotta examine the institution at some point.


[ Parent ]
I'd rather have Durbin over Schumer
From what I understand, Durbin has a better grasp of Senate procedures than Schumer has (which, in this position, is more important than being good at winning elections).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Reid is supposed to have a grasp of Senate procedures
And Durbin strikes me as too soft in a similar way. They need someone to bang heads together and that is Schumer.

[ Parent ]
Reid is way too spineless
Toss him out and put Schumer in his place. At least Schumer knows how to get things done. Reid is so afraid of being Daschled, he's going to suffer Daschle's fate because Nevadans see him as weak and ineffective. Seriously, I don't blame Nevadans for wanting him out, if this is what they get for a majority leader, I'd vote him out too.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Reid
Is something of an odd, contradictory figure. On the one hand hes spineless, as you said, but on the other he will say stupid things like 'Bush is a loser' which isnt the best thing to do when you have to work with a Pres. and his admin. and his allies in the Senate. Not to mention its one of the reasons people think Congress is too polarizing. So while he can put his foot in his mouth he, at the same time, isnt tough enough. Hes an odd man, indeed.  

[ Parent ]

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