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SSP Daily Digest: 5/18 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue May 18, 2010 at 3:47 PM EDT


CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal just ended his presser, and it was forceful and an attempt to go back on the offensive. (Reid Wilson's tweet sums it up pretty well: "Shot: Dick Blumenthal's press conference. Chaser: Mark Sanford's press conference. Study in opposites.") He admitted to misspeaking on "in Vietnam," but went after the NYT for the implied impugning of those who served stateside. Good damage control, but we'll have to wait a few days to see if it takes. The local establishment seems to be taking a wait-and-see attitude, too, as Joe Lieberman is publicly saying he's still undecided on the race (recall, though, that Blumenthal endorsed Ned Lamont, and Lieberman tends to be one who holds a grudge); the DSCC, though, is cranking things up defending Blumenthal.

Meanwhile, the GOP has been taking credit for funneling this oppo research to the Times... however, after initially taking a premature victory lap around the ring bellowing with arms raised, the Linda McMahon camp has suddenly pulled earlier references to feeding the info to the NYT off its website.

FL-Sen: Billionaire Jeff Greene is going up with not one but two different introductory TV ads, calling himself a job-creating outsider. Looks like he's serious about spending some major cash on his rather quixotic bid in the Democratic primary,.

KY-Sen (pdf): One last poll sneaked across the finish line, from Republican pollster Magellan (not working on either candidate's behalf). In their poll of the GOP primary, they find, consistent with most pollsters, a big edge for Rand Paul; he leads Trey Grayson 55-30. PPP has some pretty tantalizing tidbits of cat fud that they found in the crosstabs of their GOP primary poll, though. Grayson supporters, i.e. establishment Republicans who probably secretly like their earmarks, really, really, don't like Rand Paul. Grayson supporters give Paul 23/53 favorables, and only 40% of them say they'll vote for Paul, while 43% flat-out say they won't vote for him.

WA-Sen: While the Glenn Thrushes and Chris Cillizzas of the world seem to have some inside information that leads them to say that Dino Rossi is on the precipice of announcing his Senate run, there's just nothing in the local press that seems to bear that out. Instead, all we've got is a lot of lower-level Republicans getting impatient and starting to take each their frustrations out on each other. Clark Co. Commissioner Tom Mielke sent around an e-mail to various other state GOPers saying that Rossi's dithering is angering the base and hurting Republican chances of picking up the seat. The Seattle Times somehow got ahold of the e-mail and a bunch of responses from other insiders, if you want a glimpse behind the state GOP's curtain. Another insider, Mathew Manweller, pointed out that Mielke has an axe to grind as a Don Benton supporter, but also told the Times over the weekend that "Dino probably has to make a decision here and let people know within a week or so, or the milk is going to sour."

WI-Sen: As expected, wealthy businessman Ron Johnson formally announced yesterday that he's getting in the GOP primary to go against Russ Feingold, joining three other never-before-elected rich guys. Wondering how Johnson made his fortune? Just one word: plastics.

IA-Gov: In case the ideological fault lines in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Iowa couldn't get any clearer, Mitt Romney announced he's endorsing Terry Branstad for a return engagement. In fact, this may say more about Romney's plans than anything, as he seems to be trying to monopolize the sane/establishment wing of the party for 2012 against a Palin/Huckabee split among the nutters.

NY-Gov: The Conservative Party is trying once again to upstage the Republicans in New York; their latest move involves moving their nominating convention up to May 28, three days before the GOP nominating convention. They're committed to backing Rick Lazio, and this is a move designed to force the GOP's hand into backing Lazio as well, rather than party-switching Steve Levy, in order to avoid a NY-23-style split between the GOP and the Conservatives.

WI-Gov: Looking for some traction in the GOP primary, Mark Neumann is accusing Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker of "working part-time" so he can campaign. (Does any officeholder not work part-time in the months leading up to an election?) Meanwhile, there was a big-time Walker walk-back, after he initially voiced displeasure with Arizona's anti-illegal immigrant law and then got deluged with negative comments on his Facebook page. Now suddenly he's for it, saying he changed his mind after talking to the Arizona state senator who proposed it.

WY-Gov: Well, this is progress... I guess. Natrona County Democratic chair R.C. Johnson says she'll take one for the team and run for Governor on the Democratic line if no other viable candidate does. (The state party convention came and went last weekend without any takers.) Don't bowl us all over with your enthusiasm, R.C.!

HI-01: Three of Hawaii's Democratic ex-Governors (John Waihee, George Ariyoshi, and Ben Cayetano) put out coordinated statements urging voters to, whatever else they might do, not vote for Charles Djou in the messed-up special election. Waihee said Djou winning would be a "nightmare."

SC-05: Well, this is more than a little tasteless: the NRCC issued a statement referring to "Amnesiac John Spratt" and accusing him of having "completely forgotten" who he's working for. Spratt, of course, recently revealed that he's in the early stages of Parkinson's Disease, and his opponent, Mick Mulvaney, has carefully steered clear of turning that into a campaign issue. Have no fear, Mick, the NRCC's always willing to do what you aren't.

VA-05 (pdf): So what's it like being in the World of Hurt? Pretty good, at least according to his own internal poll. Robert Hurt claims a POS poll gives him 35% of the vote in the GOP primary, with his nearest rival, Ken Boyd (the other non-teabagger in the race) lagging at 10%. The assorted teabaggers accumulated together account for another 9%.

Things in General: CQ has a moderately interesting article today on other pending anti-incumbent primaries. Mostly I'm including it because one quote lingered with me, and I wanted to blockquote it for future reference, as a useful bit of perspective for anyone who gets a little too worked up about whatever's being hyperbolically, breathlessly being reported on in the news any given day:

"We overreact to everything here in Washington," said longtime Democratic media consultant Steve Murphy.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/18 (Afternoon Edition)
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CA-Sen: Campbell with slight edge over Fiorina, DeVore way behind
http://foxandhoundsdaily.com/b...

Campbell up 33-28-15 over Fiorina/DeVore.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Hopefully him going semi-dark
Gives her the opening she needs.

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov
Oh man, I'm starting to think that between eMeg, FAILorina and Gov. Moonbeam, this is going to be a fun year in California. Speaking of Jerry Brown, he just had his first political event, at UC-Santa Barbara, and I was unaware that he's well-known for his zingers. Wit is a good way to get your words out if you're comparatively underfunded. Of his GOP rivals, his money quote was: "The apostles of darkness and ignorance are well-heeled, and they have great political consultants."

Source: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

He later referred to them as "intellectually embarrassing" and "so banal" and made fun of their spending, wondering "what $100 million could for this campus." Oh, and he did it without an entourage or notes. Eat it, eMeg.

Interestingly, I just realized I haven't seen a story about the gubernatorial race in a loooong time that doesn't feature at least one voter talking about how they're turned off by Whitman's massive spending.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Arizona has a sales tax referendum worth keeping an eye on today
http://www.governing.com/blogs...

A "yes" would have a combination of tax increases and spending cuts.  It's being supported by Brewer among others.  

If yes wins it could be a sign voters are willing to take some tax hikes to save services.  I'd say it's worth watching.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Why on earth is working part-time during a campaign an issue? n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Cook on CT Sen
I think making it a toss-up is a little dramatic. Anyone else? I still don't see it as something that could cost him the election.  

Yeah
Particularly since there's still a very good chance that McMahon is the Republican nominee.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Currently, I'd place it in Lean Dem w/ the potential to go toss-up
Against either candidate, I suspect Blumenthal would prevail by high single-digits. In order to claim victory, McMahon/Simmons would probably need upwards of a 15% advantage among Indies, which I don't think is there. Yet.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Cook
apparently did not learn his lesson from moving PA-12 to Lean R based on his subjective feeling, admitting that he did so in spite of polling data showing a clear tossup.  Now he's had to pull that back.

Would it kill you to wait for a CT-Sen poll, Charlie?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Speaking of Cook
If Critz does win PA-12, this suggests that Cook will have to change some of his thoughts on '10

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report: "Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters' attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP's advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.


[ Parent ]
Cook only very begrudgingly moved it to lean-Dem
Only after multiple polls showed unassailable Blumenthal leads. Cook's definitely seeing a strong GOP wave this election, more so than other prognosticators.  While I would like to make some snide remarks how he's "drunk the koolaid" or some such, that's the same thing the Republicans said when he correctly predicted the Democratic victories of 2006.  

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
If memory serves
Cook was actually pretty slow to come around to the Democratic wave that happened in 2006, unlike this time around when he was extremely quick to say that he saw no way the Democrats keep a majority in the House.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
My reading also
Cook was burned by the fact he was looking at the thing on a race by race basis and didn't see the numbers. So he has adjusted this year to allow for that. He has said if he was using the same method he would not be predicting such a good GOP year. There is a chance he has overcompansated.

[ Parent ]
Call be a pessimist...
... but tossup may be to optimistic for Blumenthal IMO. Fair or not the soundbite is devastating.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Should the fact
That he refuses to apologize hurt him?  

[ Parent ]
No way
This is like Hillary Clinton saying she got shout at.  This won't stop Blumenthal at all.

[ Parent ]
Too pessimistic
As I mentioned below, he hit back against this story very forcefully. He's also not an unknown quantity in Connecticut politics by any means. He has a reserve of goodwill among the voters that's going to probably allow him to overcome this.

[ Parent ]
I agree with Cook...
and I preface that by saying I'm not even Tekzilling this. I just don't see how Blumenthal can survive this blatant lying. He's NOT had a competitive race in ages and he is clearly a pol who thinks the voters owe him a victory in any race he runes. What he displayed today was idiotic chutzpah and unless CT Dems force him off the ballot he is in danger of losing in Nov! it won't be a D vs. R or outsider vs. establishment, he will become the issue just like Dodd and then it will crystallize into a personality race which he can't win.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
Frankly, McMahon cut the damage done to Blumenthal by half, at least
While I don't see Blumenthal being a shoe-in anymore, if the Republicans nominate McMahon, I still have a hard time seeing how he doesn't win against her.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
All I'll say
Is that that was some major damage control on the part of Blumenthal. Responded immediately and fiercely. Given the crappiness of the situation, he couldn't have handled it better. Hopefully we avoided the worst of it.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
That's just ridiculous
Cook is really getting totally knee jerk.  He's ruining his reputation.  Why not wait 48 hours or so and see how things play out before moving the race?

[ Parent ]
He's one of the most reactionary of the pundits
Stu Rothenberg is only a little bit better. Either way, they both act like Chicken Little about Democratic chances way too often.

[ Parent ]
Creeping Broderism
They've been in the village too long.  Have become jaded and subject to group think.

[ Parent ]
Remind me again
Why does anyone listen to either of them? I mean, other than being old "respected" pundits, what do they bring to the table?

I'm only being partially snarky about this...I'm curious as to why people take them so seriously, seemingly despite their consistently flawed analysis?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Length of service
That's all it is.  It's like Broder.  The guy has become inane and stale, but people still treat him like he's some sort of sage.

[ Parent ]
Few challengers to their thrones
A half dozen more Nates with real facts/data/statistical analyses and Cook/Rothenberg can be marginalized.

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen, PA-12: low turnout, especially in Philly
http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Probably very good for Sestak but not for Critz (though turnout is better in PA-12).

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Higher turnout in PA-12..
... than statewide is good for Sestak (PPP shows him winning the district 44-35).


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Some of that is probably Republicans though
Of course if Democratic turnout is a little higher than the rest of the state it's good for Sestak.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Probably pretty accurate
I voted in Philly today around 2 p.m. and for my half of the room I was the 37th voter (the room is split in half alphabetically.  That seemed really low to me.

You could say maybe people will vote after work, but I dont see people rushing out to vote tonight.  The rain has stopped in Philly but its still cold and sorta windy outside.


[ Parent ]
A hopeful sign for Critz
Democrats and Republicans say their early canvassing returns in Pennsylvania's 12th CD show a very tight race, and that makes Republicans more anxious than Democrats. Democrats say they're hitting their targets.

And they're still sending out memos pointing to Republicans who say that the race ought to be a GOP win -- something the Democrats would NOT do if they weren't seeing the numbers. Remember, both parties have sophisticated boiler room operations and have volunteers checking voter lists in sample precincts ... and they feed this data into a computer and out pops various projections of turnout.

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I hope they aren't slacking up
I remember 2004.  Similar modeling led Democrats to gloat that they'd won PA, OH and FL.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
The GOP doesn't seem to be doing it though
That fills me with some hope that they're seeing themselves falling short.  Don't want to get my hopes up, but this feels good.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Possible
But that was with large turnout on both sides. I would guess they have a much smaller margin of error to worry about in these circumstances.

[ Parent ]
WA Senate local Republicans are already complaining about Rossi's decision not to run
several young Republicans who had planned to take leaves of absnece from their employers to wokr on a Rossi campaign have already told their employers "there will be no campaign. I need no leave."

Word about Rossi's negative decision starting working its way through state grapevineas last Thursday but so far there has been no announcement. I've heard that Benton got some substantial donations last Friday based upon Rossi's decision to stay out but I haven't been able to confirm.


Murphy quote
After the presser I'm wondering if we might have been a little hasty on Blumenthal. Cook has moved it tossup I see. Clearly it becomes more competitive but the more I think about it I don't think it is fatal at all.

I was surprised
I was surprised in the way that all and sundry here at SSP threw Blumenthal under the bus!

He served "during" Vietnam but not "in" Vietnam. It's a matter of simple semantics.  


[ Parent ]
It depends on the follow-ups
But here's one hopeful sign from the New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05...

IMO, Chris Shays could have used what he knew to put a nail in Blumenthal's coffin. Instead comes this:

He added: "I understand how these things, over 30 years, you keep adding a little bit to it. And you're on very thin ice. And obviously he's on very thin ice right now. He walked too far out on the lake. It's really too bad, because he's a very good person."


[ Parent ]
I think Blumenthal will survive this...
Not only as the Democratic nominee but in the general election as well. I think the Times has trumped this up to be more than it truly is. When I first heard this story last night, I thought for sure he was finished. From the way this story was sold, it sounded like Blumenthal had been consistently lying about himself in front of every audience when he addressed his Vietnam-era service.

This is not the case. Misspeaking is not the same as being a habitual liar. Fighting back against this forcefully was the right thing to do for this campaign.

Somebody compared this to Hillary Clinton talking about being under sniper fire in Bosnia. She went on to win fiercely fought contests in the primary after that story broke.

I think that's a pretty good comparison. LIke Clinton, Blumenthal is a well-known figure in the state. He has a reservoir of goodwill built up that's going to help him survive this.

Although if he doesn't survive, I just read today that Susan Bysiewicz has been ruled ineligble to run for state attorney general by the state Supreme Court. She could be waiting in the wings.


Interesting nugget there at the end.
Although if he doesn't survive, I just read today that Susan Bysiewicz has been ruled ineligble to run for state attorney general by the state Supreme Court. She could be waiting in the wings.

Got a link for that?


[ Parent ]
Agree
The chicken littleism on some of these sites is ridiculous.  Blumenthal has built up a reservoir of good will in the state.  This will long be forgotten by election day and Blumenthal will win.

[ Parent ]
IA-Gov
I am trying to figure out why Branstad would want to roll out Romney's endorsement before the primary. Most of the Iowa Republicans who backed Romney are probably already for Branstad, and Romney's Iowa chairman (Doug Gross) is a real lightning rod for the Iowa GOP.

Louisiana most likely going back to open primaries
http://www.klfy.com/Global/sto...

Both houses have approved it; the Senate amended it so that it takes effect this year. The House has to approve the amended version, then it goes to Jindal's desk. Sigh.


CT-Sen: Ras finds Blumenthal up 3 over McMahon
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

The best news out of this poll is only 26% believe Blumenthal should exit the race. However, 53% say his military service will be an important factor in the election.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


As long as there are no more bombshells
Then if he is still ahead now he will be fine. It may even be a blessing since it ensures he can't and won't sit on his ass with huge leads any longer.

[ Parent ]
Bennet takes the lead in Colorado
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Sorry GOP, that 1994 nostalgia was fun while it lasted!



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