Suffolk (pdf) (5/20-23, RVs, 2/21-24 in parens):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 42 (33)
Charlie Baker (R): 29 (25)
Tim Cahill (I): 14 (23)
Jill Stein (G): 8 (3)
Undecided: 7 (16)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
It may be premature to say that Patrick is “on the mend”, but when you start accumulating enough polls like this one, it’s hard not to feel that way. A recent Rasmussen poll pegged the race at 45 Patrick, 31 Baker, and 16 Cahill — not far off Suffolk’s mark at all.
You may recall that, when they last polled this race in February, Suffolk head David Paleologos hyperventilated that this was now a two-way race “between Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill”, despite the fact that Patrick was still technically leading the field by eight points. Paleologos is now smartly singing a different tune, saying that the RGA’s big media buy against Cahill has actually been more of a net positive for Patrick. In any case, three-way races like this one can end up throwing some serious curveballs, but Patrick seems to be in the strongest shape we’ve seen him in a while. His job approval has ticked up to a bad 42-49, up from a dismal 34-59 in February, and his favorable rating is up to 45-46 from 38-50. Still, his re-elects remain poor: 33-55 (up from 29-60).
I suspect the only way he loses is if Cahill can rebound. Jill Stein netting 8% is a little concerning, although I imagine that’ll evaporate when push comes to shove. For now, Lean Dem.
Cook, Rothenburg, CQ, and Sabato says this is what a toss up looks like!!!
Hmmm, and so do a few certain editors of some blog called “Swing State Project”
I haven’t viewed this race as a toss up for months (it was 6 months ago at least), I don’t know why others still do.
He was looking almost as hated as Governor Paterson of New York for a while.