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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 17

by: James L.

Sat May 15, 2010 at 9:19 PM EDT


AK-Gov (5/6, likely voters):

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 58
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 30

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62
Hollis French (D): 24

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62
Bob Poe (D): 21

Ralph Samuels (R): 43
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36

Ralph Samuels (R): 48
Hollis French (D): 26

Ralph Samuels (R): 47
Bob Poe (D): 23
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Sen (5/12, likely voters, 4/12 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (42)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (38)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)
Chuck DeVore (R): 40 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 5/14 in parens):

John Hickenlooper (D): 41 (42)
Scott McInnis (R): 47 (48)
(MoE: ±3%)

ID-Sen (5/11, likely voters):

Tom Sullivan (D): 22
Mike Crapo (R-inc): 66
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 3/23 in parens):

Keith Allred (D): 32 (28)
Butch Otter (R-inc): 54 (60)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

KS-Gov (5/11, likely voters, 2/24 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 27 (33)
Sam Brownback (R): 58 (55)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

KS-Sen (5/11, likely voters):

David Haley (D): 25
Jerry Moran (R): 60

Lisa Johnston (D): 25
Jerry Moran (R): 61

Charles Schollenberger (D): 25
Jerry Moran (R): 59

David Haley (D): 27
Todd Tiahrt (R): 58

Lisa Johnston (D): 29
Todd Tiahrt (R): 57

Charles Schollenberger (D): 30
Todd Tiahrt (R): 55
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MA-Gov (5/10, likely voters, 4/5 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D): 45 (35)
Charlie Baker (R): 31 (27)
Tim Cahill (I): 14 (23)

Grace Ross (D): 27
Charlie Baker (R): 32
Tim Cahill (I): 16
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (5/11, likely voters, 4/7 parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 38 (35)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Paul Hodes (D): 37 (37)
Bill Binnie (R): 49 (49)

Paul Hodes (D): 43 (39)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (44)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
James L. :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 17
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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 17 | 31 comments
even rassy shows n uptick for us
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
I still don't trust them even when they show us doing well.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Me thinks
that down 22 in ID-Gov in a Rassmussen survey ain't that bad!

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
Exactly what I thought
we're exactly where we should be.  But is ID-Gov a race we could extrapolate out?  Maybe a bit, but not too much.
[ Parent ]
here's what I don't get
How come even spammy Rasmussen hasn't released a poll of the IA-Gov GOP primary?

We still have not had a single public poll by anyone of this primary contest. Branstad formed an exploratory committee in October and formally announced his candidacy in January. The primary is on June 8.

I expect Selzer will poll the race sometime this month, but come on--it's ridiculous considering how many other primaries around the country have been regularly polled.

Maybe it just proves that Ras is trying to build a narrative.
If they poll the primary and find Brandstad either losing to or within striking distance of Vander Plaats, it'll give Vander Plaats momentum that he can build on and possibly win, thus presenting Culver with the one opponent he can actually beat in this environment.

The others probably just consider Iowa to be too boring to poll, or something stupid like that - or they're already taking for granted that Brandstad will be the nominee. Or, with the competitive governor's race in the general, Conlin's insurgency against Grassley grabbing all of the Iowa headlines, and a ton of other races getting away from them nationwide in what promises to be one of the most interesting electoral cycles in a long time they've completely forgotten that, um, yeah, the IA GOP gubernatorial primary exists, too. Probably a combination of these.

[ Parent ]
Why
don't you suggest to PPP to poll Iowa? They are doing the monthly "Where to poll" nominations right now..

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
The polls
California and New Hampshire are concerning. I don't see California going to a Republican - eventually the votes in LA and San Francisco will be enough to push Boxer. New Hampshire? I'm not so sure.

What's that poll about in Idaho? Is Otter in any sort of trouble? Is there some sort of ethics investigation I haven't been caught up on?

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

I thought he only won 52-44 back when he was first elected.
Is Jerry Brady interested in another swing at it?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Brady's lost twice
And the filing deadline closed two months ago. Allred seems pretty decent, given that it's Idaho.
[ Parent ]
He
is also 74 years old.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Idaho
Those numbers jumped out at me, too. I'll note that Otter did not win in very convincing fashion in 2006. In fact, for a while, it looked like Dem Jerry Brady might pull off an upset. It didn't happen, though, and you could probably chalk it up to the big wave that year - even Larry Grant only lost ID-01 by five. But why is Otter not running up bigger numbers this year? It's a good question.
[ Parent ]
Looking at the Dkos Electoral Map
Wow!  i had no idea we got within 9%!  And with the Boise area and suburbs, we should be poised to do better in the future.
[ Parent ]
Dunno
possibly just generalized anti-incumbent sentiment, especially against incumbent governors.
[ Parent ]
Well,
1. NH: There's no way Ayotte is doing as well as Ras wants us to believe, especially with a lot of the recent gaffes (such as going to a prayer breakfast with Steve King and other crazies keynoted by Moose Lady) which you better believe will be all over the NH newspapers. Also, as far as I'm concerned, if the Maine Republican Party can have its platform hijacked by a handful of fringe teabagging loonies, Lamontagne can win this primary, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Ras is deliberately underpolling Lamontagne supporters to prop up his chosen candidate. (As he did in WA-Sen, underpolling Democrats to set up a lead for Rossi that was never there, among other races.)  

2. ID: Even if there was an ethics investigation of Otter, it wouldn't stop Mountain West voters from voting for him anyway. Remember, Ted Stevens needed an actual conviction to be tossed from office (and only just), and Conrad Burns probably would've won a fourth term in any other year (though a large part of that was because Tester was funded almost entirely by out of state/California money, which put a lot of people off). Both of those guys were also assailable because they were old, crazy, corrupt, and had been in Washington forever, which took the shine off of the "I'm just a good ol' cowpoke" pandering that one needs to be successfully elected in that region. Otter polls as low as he does because of a.) the anti-incumbent mood and b.) the fact that he was a Congressman for over a decade before he became a Senator, which in a state that small means you've probably pissed off half the electorate at least once.  

[ Parent ]
ID - Larry Craig didn't survive
And Helen Cheneworth was hurt electorally by her foibles.

Idaho is not Louisiana, and there's no effect from a Vice Presidential candidate like in Alaska.

I do believe Otter's ethical problems will hurt him electorally. Nevertheless, any D has a long way to go in that state.

[ Parent ]
But neither lost to a Democrat.
Chenoweth was re-elected twice and Craig called it quits.  Basically, the margin of error for an Idaho Republican in the general election is very large.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The game with Rasmussen is

that its methods or questions push weak Republican leaners into Republican support and weak Democratic leaners to Undecided.  They do get the partisan split within moe of the consensus of other polling once you do that.

After adjusting for that, the story seems to be that Democrats are still more reluctant about going to the polls in November.  I'm expecting that to be a lasting fact in the South, i.e. we'll see a disaster election for conservative Democrats there.  And due to those reluctant Southerners, Democrats will lag in national pollings all the way to November.

What bothers me is that interest/commitment is apparently picking up only very slowly in the other regions of the country.  Then again, it's all six months away and it is a remarkably bland and colorless cycle in terms of entertainment and prominent figures, celebrities, juicy scandals that nonpolitical people can care about.  As stars rising we have maybe Andrew Cuomo and Marco Rubio and for the Comeback Award, Jerry Brown.  Exit stage left we have Schwarzenegger going and the departure of Ted Kennedy.  The Republicans are remarkably defunct- if it weren't for Sarah Palin, they'd be entirely the party of dismal gray in the elite and dreary middle aged Tea Partiers on the ground.
 

[ Parent ]
CA-Sen: Field and others corroborate Rasmussen......
Everyone shows Boxer in a dead heat lately against Campbell.  Rasmussen's numbers over time still have had a GOP bias compared to others, but the most recent other pollsters' numbers have been more similar.

But I agree Boxer eventually will win.

It's worth reminding that Boxer always has been more vulnerable than Feinstein.  Boxer has always been less popular than Feinstein and has had tougher reelection battles than Feinstein every time.

But in the end I expect Boxer to win by at least high single digits.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Kansas
Interesting that among the Senate candidates, the sitting state senator (Haley) does worst. Probably because Haley is kinda nuts....and he's the least known, apparently, despite two previous statewide campaigns, which is weird....

Also, Lisa Johnston, who just announced her candidacy two weeks before the poll was taken and is basically a no-name who's something like an assistant dean at a small university in Johnson County...she's best-known? ...Even though Schollenberger has been running for months? Do they think she's someone else? And only 30% of people don't know who she is? Dude, I follow Kansas pretty closely and I barely know who she is. Weird.

The gubernatorial numbers are also weird. Holland should be going up, not down. Meh, Rasmussen. Oh, wait, duh. The sample is super-conservative ... Obama's at 35/64 (with 48% strongly disapproving). That's a conservative sample, even for Kansas. I'd guess he's probably actually between 40/60 and 45/55. It's even more conservative than the last sample....which I guess accounts for the movements...whatever, Rasmussen. I don't even know why I even bother with you.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

since he only got 41% of the vote there
it's unlikely the same number would approve of him now.  35% seems reasonable; i'd guess with likely voters, it could be around 33%

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
Hmm...
why did Rasmussen poll the California Senate race, but not our Governor's race at the same time?  Did the numbers look good for Brown, and therefore ran against Fox News's prime directive?
Highly unlikely
If Boxer's in a dead heat with her GOP competition, I sincerely doubt Brown's up double-digits over Whitman.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen has run separate polls in the same state in other states recently......
The big one I remember is Florida, where they once recently ran Senate and Governor's race polls a few days apart.  They polled Obama's job approval both times, and got very different numbers, at a positive 50-49 one time and a negative 44-54 the 2nd time.

Just goes to show that Rasmussen's methodology contains a lot of inherent volatility.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Why
Campbell is more popular than either of the bleeding Gov candidates, and Boxer is less popular than Brown (not that people love Brown or anything).

Those starting factors alone should add up to somewhere between five and ten points.

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Boxer is far more outspoken on liberal issues than Brown is, so I won't be surprised to see Brown crush Whitman or Poizner ala Arnold 2006.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I can't imagine Brown peeling off a fourth of GOP-ers, ala Arnold w/ Dems
The think the absolute best-case-scenario for Brown is something like...

Dem - 40%
GOP - 30%
Indie - 30%

Brown - 93/13/54 = 57%
Whitman - 7/87/46 = 43%

Brown - 93/13/58 = 58%
Poizner - 7/87/42 = 42%

And the more likely scenario...

Dem - 38%
GOP - 32%
Indie - 30%

Brown - 85/10/46 = 49%
Whitman - 15/90/54 = 51%

Brown - 90/10/49 = 52%
Poizner - 10/90/51 = 48%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You think Whitman wins?
Can't see it myself. I guess possible but not the most likely scenario at all.
[ Parent ]
About Idaho
I'll only be enthusiastic once the three ultra-conservative third party candidates (including Marvin Richardson, whose legal name [on the ballot] is Pro-Life) start getting double digits when you add them together. Hopefully that can pull Walt through.

Downballot hardly looks good for us this year.  There are 15 senate districts and 29 house races with only GOP, while there are 3 House races with only Dems. And there's even more that only have Constitution and Libertarian whackos with the GOP. That means we have to win about half of the seats we're contesting to keep our numbers where they are right now (just above 1/3).

And we've left one of the biggest combinations of bigotry, corruption, insanity and nonsense that ever stalked our planet uppoposed: our treasurer, Ron Crane.

But I am hopeful that Vaugn Ward will win out a week from Tuesday, as his internal problems never come to an end; Raul Labrador or Allan Salzberg would be better bets for the GOP. I would definitely love it if Harley Brown or Mike Chadwick won, though (they don't have a chance in primary or general). One good thing is that the Liberts have a sort of bigwig running in the form of Mike Washburn, though his sight is indistinguishable from a three-year-old's.

There is that new poll showing Minnick up at 50 against both Ward and the next closest guy
So it seems that Minnick will start with some advantage at least.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Rubio and Perry
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 17 | 31 comments

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