Suffolk (pdf) (2/21-24, registered voters, 11/4-8 in parentheses):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 33 (36)
Charlie Baker (R): 25 (15)
Tim Cahill (I): 23 (26)
Jill Stein (G): 3 (NA)
Undecided: 16 (NA)
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 34 (38)
Christy Mihos (R): 19 (20)
Tim Cahill (I): 26 (26)
Jill Stein (G): 3 (NA)
Undecided: 18 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 59
Grace Ross (D): 15
Undecided: 26
Charlie Baker (R): 47
Christy Mihos (R): 17
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±?%)
There's a whole lot of ZOMG! going on today associated with the new Suffolk poll of the Massachusetts' governor's race, most of it focused on Republican businessman Charlie Baker's 10-point leap in the last few months as people become more familiar with the previously-little-known CEO (as his gain fits in conveniently with the narrative of the zillion Republicans-resurgent-in-Massachusetts stories spawned by Scott Brown's surprise victory). Much of the ZOMGing is coming directly from Suffolk head David Paleologos, who's been telling the press that it's now a race "between [Republican] Charlie Baker and [Dem-turned-indie] Tim Cahill," despite the fact that, y'know, Deval Patrick is leading by 8 points. Paleologos says "Whoever emerges from the Baker-Cahill race is likely to be the winner."
Now I assume that's just inartfully phrased and that Paleologos doesn't think that Baker and Cahill are going to face off in some sort of weird primary, and that what he means is that there's a race-within-a-race where Baker and Cahill try to box each other out and become the dominant non-Patrick candidate. If one of Baker and Cahill somehow does severely damage the other, then, yes, I agree, Patrick's in deep doo-doo. But if they don't, and the current holding pattern continues, then there is no winner of the Baker-Cahill "race," only two losers, as they split the anti-Patrick majority right down the middle. Which is precisely how Patrick is currently leading the race, despite his unappealing 38/50 favorables and 35/54 approvals. Considering, though, that many of the I-hate-Patrick voters are specifically anti-Patrick Democrats or Dem-leaning indies who would never vote for a Republican (for whom Cahill is a safety valve), and that many of Baker's voters are the state's small but diehard Republican minority who'd never vote for what's essentially a moderate Dem (again, Cahill), I suspect the consolidation of the anti-Patrick vote behind one person is easier said than done.
RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Gov |
