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MA-Gov: Baker Moves Up, Although Patrick Still Leads

by: Crisitunity

Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 1:55 PM EST


Suffolk (pdf) (2/21-24, registered voters, 11/4-8 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 33 (36)
Charlie Baker (R): 25 (15)
Tim Cahill (I): 23 (26)
Jill Stein (G): 3 (NA)
Undecided: 16 (NA)

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 34 (38)
Christy Mihos (R): 19 (20)
Tim Cahill (I): 26 (26)
Jill Stein (G): 3 (NA)
Undecided: 18 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 59
Grace Ross (D): 15
Undecided: 26

Charlie Baker (R): 47
Christy Mihos (R): 17
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±?%)

There's a whole lot of ZOMG! going on today associated with the new Suffolk poll of the Massachusetts' governor's race, most of it focused on Republican businessman Charlie Baker's 10-point leap in the last few months as people become more familiar with the previously-little-known CEO (as his gain fits in conveniently with the narrative of the zillion Republicans-resurgent-in-Massachusetts stories spawned by Scott Brown's surprise victory). Much of the ZOMGing is coming directly from Suffolk head David Paleologos, who's been telling the press that it's now a race "between [Republican] Charlie Baker and [Dem-turned-indie] Tim Cahill," despite the fact that, y'know, Deval Patrick is leading by 8 points. Paleologos says "Whoever emerges from the Baker-Cahill race is likely to be the winner."

Now I assume that's just inartfully phrased and that Paleologos doesn't think that Baker and Cahill are going to face off in some sort of weird primary, and that what he means is that there's a race-within-a-race where Baker and Cahill try to box each other out and become the dominant non-Patrick candidate. If one of Baker and Cahill somehow does severely damage the other, then, yes, I agree, Patrick's in deep doo-doo. But if they don't, and the current holding pattern continues, then there is no winner of the Baker-Cahill "race," only two losers, as they split the anti-Patrick majority right down the middle. Which is precisely how Patrick is currently leading the race, despite his unappealing 38/50 favorables and 35/54 approvals. Considering, though, that many of the I-hate-Patrick voters are specifically anti-Patrick Democrats or Dem-leaning indies who would never vote for a Republican (for whom Cahill is a safety valve), and that many of Baker's voters are the state's small but diehard Republican minority who'd never vote for what's essentially a moderate Dem (again, Cahill), I suspect the consolidation of the anti-Patrick vote behind one person is easier said than done.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Gov

Crisitunity :: MA-Gov: Baker Moves Up, Although Patrick Still Leads
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Paleologos' Comment Is Really Obnoxious
I understand the consolidation argument, but Patrick is still ahead by a noticeable amount. Saying the race is between the other two is at best empty headed contrarianism. More likely, it's avoiding the facts to push the narrative you want.

Agree that Paleologos comment is off-base
Still, to take issue with Crisitunity's usually spot-on analysis, I don't think consolidation of the Cahill-Baker vote will be that difficult if one of them emerges as the leading anti-Patrick candidate. To wit: Patrick's favorables are awful, and Scott Brown proved that there's a lot more Mass voters willing to pull the lever for a Republican if the alternative is someone they don't like. Also, see Corzine, Jon, for an example of how a despised incumbent can work wonders in a Dem leaning state.  

I still don't understand why Cahill isn't running as a Democrat....
Massachusetts is far more Democratic than liberal and there is signifigant dissatisfaction with Patrick.  And Patrick isn't all that well loved by the Democratic elites.  There was a huge opening for a well known well funded challenger.

Though I guess Cahill is doing Patrick a favor by being a shock absorber picking up anti-Patrick votes that could potentially drift to the Republicans.

But it's still an odd move when he could win the nomination of a state party that nominated Ronald Reagan's "favorite" governor (Ed King) and John Silber.  Two individuals FAR more conservative than he is.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


Doin' it my way...
Democrat - 40%
Independent - 40%
Republican - 20%

Baker - 3/30/85 = 31%
Cahill - 25/30/15 = 26%
Patrick - 70/28/0 = 41%
Stein - 2/2/0 = 2%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


The Important thing is Patrick'snumbers
I think people are missing the Corzine situation here. From looking at the Memo and comments, what the pollster is saying is that the remaining undecideds are undecided between Cahill and Baker, but not between voting for Patrick or not. In effect therefore, Patrick is not trailing 51-33 among decided voters, but more like 65-33. And Patrick is likely to be unable to win that, no matter how his opponents split.

I also don't buy there being a block of anti-republican voters in the state. Between 1990, 1994, and 1998, probably 95% of the electorate voted GOP at some point. And to the extent Cahill is dragging from anyone, it is working-class urban voters who went for O'Brien in  2002.  

What has to be realized here is that Patrick's opponents are far stronger than Scott Brown ever was. Baker's running mate is openly Gay, and there are a ton of Coakley/Baker voters, for instance my parents who voted for every Democrat nationally since 1988. I have yet to meet a single Brown/Patrick voter. And with turnout unlikely to be higher than in the special election, its the Republicans who are mobilized.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


Are we dealing with a David Paterson level of denial
and delusion (at least until the scandal made even him cancel his campaign) in Patrick? On the surface, it looks like Patrick has a possibility of winning, but he sure is unpopular. What is motivating him to keep running?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Delusion and Spite
Someone asked above why Cahill didn't challenge Patrick. The simple reason is that you need 15% ofthe delagates at the state convention to get on the primary ballot, and the view was that Patrick might be able to embargo that through his control of the party.

To be fair though, it illustrative of Patrick's problem. The Democratic establishment has never forgotten that Patrick was their last choice, and Patrick has never let them forget it. From his first St. Patrick's Day breakfast where he lashed out about school busing of all things, he has been doing everything in his power to personally alienate a lot of the local political machine. Armed in assumption that he had a mandate, he has treated the legislative leadership with contempt.

In turn,  they have returned the hostility in full, and quite a few of them would be quite pleased with Baker as Governor. The irony is that Patrick's actually policies are quite good - its  just that the way he goes about them alianates everyone.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Busing?
That's a 30-year-old issue. Weird. Gratuitous racial politics?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
So basically
What your saying is plicies has been good which I agree, it's just the way he conducts himself makes him look bad? Yeah that is a problem because public image matters(talking to you Martha).

You got to be kidding me that he brought up busing? That was a big dead in MA 30 yeah ago when they were rioting in Charlestown, not now. My god.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
It was back when the Roberts court was having the Louisville and Portland cases. Hesaid something along the lines of "The Court is on the verge of writing equality outofthe constitution" and then went on to talk of Boston's own troubled history. Even if you agreed with him on the issue, wrong time, wrong place, wrong audience.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
I think that look so well for Patrick

This are good news for Patrick.

Paleologos is wrong about a hard fight between Baker and Cahill. Much republicans near to teabbager movements never would vote to Cahill and much Cahill voters never would vote to a republican. The key for this race will be not only the "anti-Patrick" vote. This can be not the alone "anti".

And while Brown was one of five higher level elected republicans in all the state, Baker only was a nominated officer in time of republican governors. Brown was a higher level politician than Baker. That makes Brown run unopposed in republican side in his senate bid (and Christie run too with very low opposition from his side).


Voting for a Republican
Cahill voters never would vote to a republican

Why do you think a Cahill voter would never vote for a Republican for Governor?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I think that look so well for Patrick

This are good news for Patrick.

Paleologos is wrong about a hard fight between Baker and Cahill. Much republicans near to teabbager movements never would vote to Cahill and much Cahill voters never would vote to a republican. The key for this race will be not only the "anti-Patrick" vote. This can be not the alone "anti".

And while Brown was one of five higher level elected republicans in all the state, Baker only was a nominated officer in time of republican governors. Brown was a higher level politician than Baker. That makes Brown run unopposed in republican side in his senate bid (and Christie run too with very low opposition from his side).



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