Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 5/4 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue May 04, 2010 at 7:03 AM EDT


An all-House digest today - and it's an hour earlier than usual! Remember, today is primary day in IN, NC & OH, so be sure to check out SSP's handy election guide.

  • AL-07: Attorney Terri Sewell, who is probably the candidate ideologically closest to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, is going up with a TV ad buy in Montgomery and Birmingham which will stay up through the primary (which is a month from now). No word on the size of the buy, though.
  • CT-02: Republicans are courting former television news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh to run against Rep. Joe Courtney, who has luckily skated by without much in the way of opposition this cycle. Peckinpaugh says she's considering it. She was most recently seen shilling for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads, clearly trading on her reputation as a newsreader. The company, Lend America, shut down in December after it was placed under federal investigation.
  • FL-12: After screwing up the establishment's efforts to clear the GOP primary field for ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross by jumping into the race, Polk County Comm'r Randy Wilkinson is bidding adieu to the Republican Party. Instead, he's going to run as the Tea Party candidate (there's an actual Tea Party in Florida, just like the Whigs). Wilkinson has raised very little money - his FEC reports are a mess, and he seems to like filing them in hand-written form, so he doesn't even appear in their electronic database.
  • FL-21: What a bummer - zero Dems filed in the open 21st CD, which means that Mario Diaz-Balart will automatically inherit his brother Lincoln's seat. I can't really blame folks too much, though, as Florida has especially onerous ballot access requirements. If you don't petition on, you have to pay a filing fee, which is an insane $10,000+.
  • HI-01: The DCCC threw down another $70K for negative ads against Charles Djou.
  • ID-01, OH-15: We mentioned the other day that GOPer Steve Stivers, busy with a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, said he favors repealing the 17th amendment - the one which gives citizens the right to vote for their senators (rather than having them be appointed by state legislatures). Well, after taking a lot of much-deserved heat, he's backed off that fantasy. But his would-be colleague, Vaughn Ward, is taking up the mantle. Ward, running against Rep. Walt Minnick in ID-01, offered a rationale worthy of Miss Teen South Carolina, saying "When you look at how come state's rights have been so abrogated, it's because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states." Yuh huh. Exactly.
  • IL-08: Just click the link and read about the greatest political implosion of the entire cycle. (Thankfully, it's the bad guys.) More here, here, and here.
  • KS-03: Along with Joe Garcia (see yesterday's morning digest), the DCCC added another candidate to their Red to Blue list, Stephene Moore, who is the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore.
  • MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Bill Delahunt's open seat, scored an endorsement from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Perry, who was also previously endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown, has a primary against ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone. Malone has some baggage-related cooties, which probably explains Perry's run of good fortune.
  • MD-01 (PDF): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R) (4/25-26, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 36
    Andy Harris (R): 39
    Richard Davis (L): 6
    Other: 1
    Undecided: 18
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Two things about this poll: First off, in contravention of appropriate practice, POS asked all kinds of axe-grindy issue questions ("Gov. O'Malley raised taxes by $1.3 billion") before getting to the horserace question. This does damage to POS's reputation as a supposedly respectable pollster. Secondly, the weird thing is that Harris switched pollsters - and his last survey, from the Tarrance Group back in November, had him up by a whopping 52-39. While it's not a proper trendline, you gotta wonder - is Harris slipping? Or is he getting snowed by his various pollsters? (Update: D'oh! Our mistake -- this poll was not done for Harris, but actually the right-wing consortium of douches known as the Americans for Prosperity.)

  • MI-01: Dem state Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who got into the race to replace Bart Stupak just a few weeks ago, is bowing out.
  • MI-09: Self-funder Gene Goodman is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Gary Peters, despite having loaned his campaign $450K. That leaves ex-state Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski and former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday in the running, both of whom have had unimpressive fundraising - and in fact, Rocky is yet another victim (albeit a more minor one) of Base Connect.
  • Meanwhile, we missed a Welday internal poll from a couple of weeks ago (taken by Mitchell Research & Communications), which had Peters leading by just 44-43. The poll sampled just 300 LVs, though, and according to the Hotline, was in the field at two discontiguous times. Peters' camp attacked the poll's sample composition, but Steve Mitchell says he used the same methodology as he did in September of 2008, when (according to the article), " he declared Peters was going to defeat Joe Knollenberg." Is this hindsight proving to be 20/20? Mitchell's poll from back then had the race tied.

  • NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Mike McMahon (4/7-11, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56
    Mike Allegretti (R): 24
    Undecided: 20

    Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56
    Mike Grimm (R): 23
    Undecided: 21
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • OH-09: Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is not really on anyone's radar in terms of having a competitive race, is nonetheless facing a moneybags challenger. Former Food Town CEO Rich Iott just dumped $319,000 into his campaign. Kaptur has over a million on hand, and the 9th CD voted 62% for Obama and 58% for Kerry.
  • PA-12: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DCCC (4/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):
  • Mark Critz (D): 43
    Tim Burns (R): 41
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • TN-08: A couple of disgusting low-lifes running for TN-08, Ron Kirkland and Randy Smith, had this delightful exchange at a candidate forum:
  • Kirkland, of Jackson, referred to his Army training during the Vietnam War and said: "I can tell you if there were any homosexuals in that group, they were taken care of in ways I can't describe to you."

    Smith, a chef from Mercer who served in the Navy during the Gulf War, said: "I definitely wouldn't want to share a shower with a homosexual. We took care of that kind of stuff, just like (Kirkland) said."

    These sick bastards have serious issues.

  • SD-AL: Heh - GOP state Rep. Kristi Noem has a biographical spot up on the air, talking about her return to her family farm after her father's death. The only problem is that she shot the ad in Texas - which became apparent given that the backdrop (a grove of leafy green trees) is something you can't really find in North South Dakota this time of year. Reminds me of when Bob Schaffer ran an ad pretending that Alaska's Mount McKinley was actually Colorado's famous Pikes Peak while running for CO-Sen in 2008.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/4 (Morning Edition)
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email

    Not bad for Kratovil
    3 for him, but 13 for Harris. Within MoE and with lot of undecideds...

    "Minus 3 for him and minus 13 for Harris"
    The engine here doesn't like "-" symbols....

    [ Parent ]
    Team Blue will have a fight
    But Harris is not what I call a great candidate.  This race is pretty much a tossup at this point, and that's with an R+13 district with the GOP having the momentum now.

    If the Dems are able to hold seats like MD-01, November won't be too bad.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04


    [ Parent ]
    Methodology
    I'm just curious as to what the hell the pollsters did.

    If they polled MD-01 and then threw in a bunch of push-polling noise in there after the fact; then the effect on MD-01 is probably minimal. (That's not to say they didn't screw something else up that's not obvious from this blurb, which is very plausible given that even R-leaning outfits usually know better than to do stuff like this when conducting polls.)

    If they asked a litany of stuff about "O'Malley raised taxes" and "Obamacare is going to blah blah blah..." and then polled MD-01..oh boy.

    I don't know if the group disclosed their identity, not that I think the name "Americans for Prosperity" means a whole lot to most people. (We know more or less who they are, but they're not even one of the more famous right-wing astroturf outfits out there.)

    And if the latter is the case, it's encouraging (for us) that they only found a 3 point margin for Harris.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    Click the link
    They did the latter. It's also what I said in the post - the pushy stuff came before the horserace.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not getting...
    what you mean about Harris switching pollsters.  This poll was done for the Koch Industries-funded Americans for Prosperity.  Are you saying Harris commissioned them too or something?

    [ Parent ]
    You're right
    That was our mistake.

    [ Parent ]
    Hehe...
    just saw the update.  "Consortium of douches".  :-)

    [ Parent ]
    Encouraging result
    Especially considering the source.

    [ Parent ]
    This is great news for Frank Kratovil
    Seriously, he is an incumbent and only 36% of voters currently plan on voting for him in the fall?

    Full disclosure: I live in the 1st district and plan on voting for Harris in the Fall.  


    [ Parent ]
    Given how close the election was in 2008
    and how motivated one would expect the Republicans in your district to be, a 3-point spread in what sounds like a push poll is not bad at all. But keep in mind the context, which involves questions like whether Kratovil has any chance at all to win reelection.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    $70k on negative ads
    I hope they don't screw it up. These last minute negative ad buys often backfire.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    Mike McMahon
    I wonder how he would be polling if he had voted for health care.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    PA SEN - Quinnipiac
    Quinnipiac has a new poll out this morning with Specter beating Sestak 47-39.  Sadly no regional breakdowns were available when I read it.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    Miss Teen South Carolina
    Strangely, Caitlin Upton, the Miss Teen South Carolina who became infamous for the following video, has resurfaced as a contestant on the CBS reality show The Amazing Race this season, and is doing quite well; Upton and her boyfriend are one of three teams who will be competing for the $1 MM prize on Sunday night.



    And she's awful
    I love the Amazing Race, and Upton is just as dumb and twice as awful as you would expect...it's mostly luck that they've gotten this far. I really hope the cowboys kick her ass (the brothers are adorable, but the cowboys are a consistently stronger team). That said, is there a political angle to this that I'm missing?

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    Kristi Noem
    is running in SD-AL, not ND-AL.

    KY-Sen: Paul trouncing Grayson, Mongiardo pulling away from Conway
    If Mongiardo wins the primary
    This race moves to Solid R, I think.  The progressives, which admittedly aren't in great number in KY but great enough, are just going to stay home.  Democratic turnout will be reduced to the point where Paul will skate by.  That's what happens when you oppose just about every major piece of legislation the democratic caucus supports.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    *Shakes fist at Kentucky Democrats*


    [ Parent ]
    Solid R is way too harsh
    Leans R is probably right, maybe even Likely R (though even there I think that's pushing it), but Rand Paul is still a much weaker candidate than Trey Greyson would be.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Also Paul could get some anti-War Dems
    Also keep in mind that while Paul has some out there views, as an anti-War, anti-patriot act Republican he could pull some liberal Dem votes on that issue. I know the war on terror isnt the issue it was in 2002 to 2008 but it still pulls some voters.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    [ Parent ]
    Why insult Kentucky progressives?
    Somebody would have to be at least three days dead to not be energized to campaign against Rand Paul.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd consider voting for him
    if Mongiardo won. And this is a liberal Democrat saying this.

    Dems and Repubs can agree: Libertarians are right exactly half the time.

    überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets


    [ Parent ]
    Bob Schaffer
    Did you know that Bob Schaffer became a margarita mix salesman after he lost his second Senate bid?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...


    CT-02
    I'm shocke the CT GOP and the NRCC isnt making more of a push for Rob Simmons to drop down and try to retake his old house seat. Without Dodd running in the general and with McMahon's millions in the GOP primary his Senate campaign looks DOA.

    Why not take that cash and switch to the House race?  

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
    http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


    Sewell
    is ideologically closest to Obama.  She went to school with Michelle and (like Artur) she's not an establishment democrat (teacher's unions, trial lawyers) compared to the other candidates.  I bet, though I don't know, that the teacher's union is not for her.  

    Sewell
    has no name recognition. She will finish third

    [ Parent ]
    Your diary
    Your most recent diary on Shelia Smoot's liveblog has been deleted. Non-news diaries with a shelf life of about one hour are not proper uses of the SSP diaries section, and we encourage such posts to instead be directed as comments in our open threads and daily digests.

    Thanks for your cooperation, and for understanding.


    [ Parent ]
    Are the Republicans really as inept as they seem
    from some of the commentary in this post? If they are, they ain't winning much in November. But I wouldn't count on only Republicans stepping in it. We'll see.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  



    Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

    Primary Sponsor

    You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?


    About the Site

    SSP Resources

    Blogroll

    Powered by: SoapBlox