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FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist Still in a Tailspin, McCollum Up by Six

by: James L.

Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 8:36 PM EDT


Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 11/16-18/2009 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 30 (47)
Marco Rubio (R): 58 (37)
Undecided: 12 (16)
(MoE: ±5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 36 (33)
Charlie Crist (R): 45 (50)
Undecided: 19 (17)

Kendrick Meek (D): 40 (38)
Marco Rubio (R): 41 (30)
Undecided: 19 (32)
(MoE: ±4%)

Another poll, another dose of heartbreak for Charlie Crist, who entered this race a year ago with a million bucks in his wallet and a pocketful of dreams. What's especially notable is that this poll was taken in the immediate aftermath of Crist's first real counter-attack on Rubio, which centered specifically around Rubio's use of Florida Republican Party credit cards for personal expenses, including some ridiculous allegations of back waxing. It doesn't look like Crist's new aggressive posture has paid his campaign any immediate dividends.

And how about a journey into the hypothetical?

Kendrick Meek (D): 24
Charlie Crist (D): 21
Undecided: 55
(MoE: ±5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 27 (31)
Marco Rubio (R): 32 (27)
Charlie Crist (I): 29 (32)
Undecided: 12 (10)

Charlie Crist (D): 38 (45)
Marco Rubio (R): 40 (34)
Undecided: 22 (21)
(MoE: ±4%)

An indie run continues to look like the best bet for Crist, turning a certain defeat into a game of jump ball for all three candidates.

And, finally, the gubernatorial race:

Bill McCollum (R): 47 (45)
Paula Dockery (R): 9 (9)
Undecided: 44 (46)
(MoE: ±5%)

Alex Sink (D): 35 (33)
Bill McCollum (R): 41 (35)
Undecided: 24 (32)

Alex Sink (D): 37 (35)
Paula Dockery (R): 15 (13)
Undecided: 48 (52)
(MoE: ±4%)

This is a slightly more optimistic take than PPP's poll last week, which had Sink trailing by 13 points. As we've said before, there are certain things that Sink can do right now to improve her campaign, but I hope that she has an effective paid media team on contract.

James L. :: FL-Sen, FL-Gov: Crist Still in a Tailspin, McCollum Up by Six
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Im really liking these Rubio/Meek numbers
I'm really hoping Crist goes kicking and screaming the whole through to tar and feather Rubio as much as he can.  Meek just needs to come up the other side, have himself already very positively defined and be ready to take out Rubio.

It'd be interesting to see Meek start tying himself to Crist in a, we are the two moderate independents in this race and Rubio beating Crist just leaves me, so vote for me over the tea-bagger.  (Not that Rubio is really a tea-bagger)


Hell, Meek needs to outwardly call Rubio a tea-bagger
and force Rubio to walk back from all the supporters who put him into this winning position.

[ Parent ]
Oh yes, but not yet.
Just wait until after the primary will ya Meeks?  

[ Parent ]
Wait a minute
R2K and Rass have both done Florida polls in the last week or so, and in the Meek-Rubio matchup, Meek is doing better according to Rassmussen than R2K?  That is a shocker.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Uh, think you might be wrong here, Stephen
Ras had Meek way behind in the last two polls

[ Parent ]
I thought the last Rasmussen poll there
Had it at Rubio 44 - Meek 39

Maybe that was PPP or somebody else.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
That was PPP
Ras had Meek down 51-31, and besides, this poll is still better for Meek than PPP's.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Crist best bet is as a Dem
55% undecided (!) against Meek, and Dems undecided against Rubio (and they ain't gonna break for Rubio).

Crist has a lot of choices, but his best options are a tough three way race in the general, or a tough primary against Meek.

As long as Crist isn't an idiot, and runs again Rubio in the primary, he is the most likely person to be the next Senator from Florida.


Rubio is the next most likely person to be the next senator from FL
Switching parties in the middle of a reelection campaign is not something that doesn't make the front page.  It is MAJOR. I can't remember one that occurred AFTER announcing for the race. Party switches normally occur before the election 'season' has really ramped up.  

If he switches, he will lose even more GOP support.  There is no guarantee that he will make up that loss with Democrats or Independents.  

Given the recent polling, why would Democrats flip from Meek to Crist?

Crist doesn't have any GOOD options. He has at least as good a shot staying put, than switching to D or I.  A flip-floper doesn't need another 'flip' on his resume.    

     


[ Parent ]
Filing dates
I'm sure most of you already know this, but if Crist loses the R primary can he THEN file as an independent (i.e. follow in the footsteps of Joe Lieberman)?  Or is there a sore loser law or other provision of Florida law that would prevent that from happening?

[ Parent ]
There's a sore loser law
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
"Party switches normally occur before the election 'season' has really ramped up"
Giving Crist at least three months to switch.

[ Parent ]

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