One assumes you have

the numbers reversed in that Crist/Meek matchup.

---

by: SC @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 17:55:37 PM CST

From DK

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

All likely voters

Crist (R) 50
Meek  (D) 33

Rubio (R) 30
Meek  (D) 38

---

by: tietack @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 17:58:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes, thanks

---

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:06:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If it really were

Meek 50, Crist 33, that's newsworthy enough that I probably would have said something about that in the headline!

---

by: Crisitunity @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:25:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Said it before

And I'll say it again.  Rubio will be the republican nominee.  The only question is how long it takes Crist to realize that fact.

And Sink should win the Governor's race. McCollum's approvals are much higher than they will be by election day and most undecides in the polls are Dems and Indies.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:09:11 PM CST

Switching parties

In addition to likely winning the Senate seat, as an added bonus for ole Charlie, he could probably come out of the closet if he switched parties. Heck, it would probably even ensure that the Democratic base votes for him in a primary.  

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:14:55 PM CST

I think he could win a Dem primary

He really hasn't made strong right-wing stands on the big issues, has governed basically as a centrist and was pretty popular among both parties when he was Florida AG.  I think he'd have a better chance beating Meek in the democratic primary than he would beating Rubio in the republican primary.  And you have to remember there are still a lot of DINOS in Florida's panhandle and other rural areas who still vote in the Dem primary.  They would likely vote Crist over Meek in the primary.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:21:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I doubt the DINOs in the panhandle

will come out and vote in large numbers, they probably don't care for Crist or Meek.  
But Crist would have to switch at least some of his positions to become acceptable to the Dem base.  If he did so, I think Meek would drop out and run for reelection.

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by: JSmith @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:04:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

They don't especially care for Rubio either

Because he is a "brown person."  It was no coincidence Mel Martinez underperformed the republican baseline in his 2004 race in the panhandle/rural republican counties to Castor.  That group is distrustful of anyone non-white even if they are solidly conservative.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:06:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think Meek would drop out under any circumstance

He has always been dead set of running for Senate even when it appeared it would be a futile race against Charlie Crist in the general.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:07:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What is the Dem base in FL?

But Crist would have to switch at least some of his positions to become acceptable to the Dem base.

Begs the question, how far would Crist have to come to be in the Florida D mainstream. I assume he need not come as far as Grayson.

Are there still a lot of Lawton Chiles / Bob Graham / Bill Nelson Ds in FL?

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by: tietack @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:08:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He would have to back health care

he would need to back cap and trade, he'd probably need to back repealing tax cuts for the wealthy.  He can probably stay pro-life and pro-gun if he wants.  

Graham or Nelson aren't really moderates.  If Crist moves to Graham or Nelson's positions, he'll be fine.  And Crist probably has few ideological hangups from doing so.  

Grayson is in the mainstream of Democrats in Florida, but he is probably a little too liberal for Florida in general.  But not much in terms of record, I can't think of a major issue where Grayson is to the left of Obama.

---

by: JSmith @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:15:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Crist has no hangups

I don't think the guy really has any core beliefs.  He will say or do whatever furthers his career.  If he sees his best opening to the Senate is as a Democrat he'd sell his own mother out.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:21:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Digressing a bit - Graham and Nelson as moderates

I believe it's important to keep the "center" of debate as far left as possible.

Graham and Nelson have images as moderates. I suspect they've always campaigned as moderates. I think it is good for us as a party if we respect (what I assume is) their wishes by referring to them as moderates.

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by: tietack @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:55:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Ya

Bill Nelson takes a lot of flak from the left but when push comes to shove he's a solid democrat.  And when I mentioned earlier in the thread that Bill Nelson/Bob Graham/Alex Sink is the model for running statewide candidates in Florida today I didn't necessarily mean moderates.  All of those people are/were very good democrats.  I meant people with deep Florida roots and have the appearance of being moderates.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:28:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes

Chiles/Graham/Bill Nelson is still the model type of candidate for a Dem winning statewide in Florida.  Alex Sink fits that model perfectly.  In Florida both parties have a somewhat diverse primary pool of voters like the state itself.

Republicans have staunch conservatives in the panhandle and rural areas, country club socially moderate types in the southern part of the state and suburban areas and Hispanics (mainly Cuban) in Miami who are somewhat moderate by GOP standards.

Democrats have lots of DINOS/moderates in the panhandle/rural areas, moderate to liberal educated voters From Gainesville through the I-4 corridor, northeast liberals in Palm Beach/Broward and moderate Hispanics now stretching from south Orlando to Miami.

As I said, right now the model Democrat for running statewide is Graham/Chiles/Bill Nelson/Alex Sink.  People who are lifelong Floridians.  Hopefully in another decade or so the model will shift to more liberal type transplants like Alan Grayson/Wasserman Schultz/Wexler or minority candidates.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:19:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would love to see a Grayson vs. Rubio poll!

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by: jmartin4s @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 19:59:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would bet

That Grayson would have much better numbers against Rubio than Meek does.  As I've said before Grayson has more appeal than just from liberals.  I work with many pro-business economic conservatives and most of them have a favorable view of Grayson due to his taking on the Federal Reserve/bailouts.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:30:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd suspect most of the Dems in the congressional delegation would have better numbers

And that says more about Meek than it does about them.  

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by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:37:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

True

Pretty much anyone in the Dem delegation from FL would have better numbers than Meek, except for maybe Corinne Brown.  Funny thing is Corinne was considering the race not long ago.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:41:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Also Alcee Hastings, though he never considered running (thank god!)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:06:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He can come out now

The minority leader in the MA state senate, who is also Charlie Baker's running mate for Gov next year, just came out.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:03:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Massachusetts

is emphatically NOT Florida.

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:10:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly

with the GOP holding a 11.8%(!) voter registration in Massachusetts, any Republican who even wants a shot to win statewide can't be your GOPer that you see nationwide. Even Romney ran as a moderate, before he decided he wanted to be president and had to move waaay to the right.  

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:13:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes

Florida may be closer to Massachusetts than Alabama as far as tolerance of gays goes, but an openly gay politician would not fly statewide in Florida just yet.  Weird really.  It's a denail thing.  Everyone in Florida knows Crist is either gay or bisexual but are ok with it so long as he "keeps it on the down low."

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:13:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Tisei's district is pretty liberal

It went for Obama by about 20 points and even if its Republicans are social conservatives, they probably care more about other issues. Those types of people are much more forgiving of coming out than social conservatives in Pensacola.

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:38:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The primary for this race is very late (August 24th)

Which gives Rubio so much time to gain and Charlie so much time to slip down. The republican wingnuts in Florida's panhandle will turn out like crazy to vote for Marco Rubio and the Florida panhandle is basically the strength of the republican party in Florida. I also do not think Meek will be the democratic nominee. This seat could easily switch parties and having to democratic senators from Florida would be awesome!  

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by: jmartin4s @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:32:36 PM CST

Kendrick Meek & the netroots

The netroots should be behind Meek more than they are.  He and Tim Ryan had some great back and forth on the House floor slamming Bush over the last few years.  It isn't his fault that he is in an easy district and hasn't drawn a stronger challenge in the past to strengthen some of his skills.  You run where you are from.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

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by: ModerateIADem @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 21:02:46 PM CST

Good to know someone else watched that

Wasserman-Schultz and Delahunt also showed up from time to time.  I quite enjoyed that 11 o'clock banter, no one else on the floor, Ryan and Meeks just beating the tar out of America's worst president.

Happy to know I was not alone :)

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by: Ajax the Greater @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 10:37:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with...

...Rubio overtaking Crist if I had more confidence in Meeks.  This is a golden opportunity to perhas take a seat on a difficult year and we're certainly not fielding our a team.

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by: Taget @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 22:08:00 PM CST

While I would relish Crist switching parties

Isn't it more likely he just bails out and runs for a second term? I don't think McCollum would clear the path for him after such a display of weakness, but it wouldn't be nearly as tough as beating Rubio.  

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by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 23:14:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He'd be too weakened to run for Gov again

If he fell behind Rubio in the polls and switched back to Governor I suspect McCollum would defeat the weakened Crist in the primary.  Crist and McCollum have always disliked one another and the conservatives would rally to McCollum.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:40:29 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yup

I just like to point out my comment from May on the subject. I was out ahead of everyone on this!  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 08:19:51 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Provided that Crist switches parties and gets the D nomination ...

.. otherwise there is no accurate prediction, only a 'wish' scenario that didn't happen.  

If Crist pulls any of the stunts being discussed here, switch parties or switch races, it would be a huge mistake.  Of course, he has been making quite a few mistakes lately, just not ones that big.

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by: vicupstate @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 10:25:59 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Whoops

Didn't mean to reply to your post, heh.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 23:15:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Meek's race

 I have not heard many people comment on Meek's race. Will he be able to generate a large African American turnout because he is African American or will he not be able to? He is a base candidate but he does not excite the base. Also, I have heard some people say Rubio will not do well in the Panhandle because people will not want to vote for a Hispanic. Isn't it possible they might not want to vote for an African American either?
In my opinion, if Christ runs, he wins because he should do well in the white parts of the Gold Coast and other white parts of the state. I have relatives on the Gold Coast and in July, they were openly not voting for Obama because he was African American. Then in September, they changed their minds because they could not find one reason to vote for McCain and Palin....We know how popular she is among socially Liberal people from the northeast.

My relatives might not go to Meek because of his race or Rubio so these normally Democratic voters will stay home unless Christ is on the ballot so they might vote for him.

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com

---

by: Alibguy @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 08:47:42 AM CST

That's the dilemma

Race is definately a factor and it cuts both ways.  I may well be wrong but Meek doesn't strike me as the typs of candidate who will really motivate high AA turnout.  If it were Rubio vs. Meek in 2008 I think Meek would have won with Obama at the top of the ballot, but in a midterm it is far less likely.

The one positive is money.  Meek looks to have no serious primary threat and thus far is a very good fundraiser so he will have nine months to introduce himself to voters in a positive light.  Rubio and Crist will probably focus the bulk of their attacks on one another and have only a couple months to attack Meek.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 09:13:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Meek's path to victory

is in perfectly recreating the Obama coalition. I find that very hard to imagine.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 09:23:34 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Christ

I think that if Christ is on the ballot, he'll probably win.  Pretty high turnout, too.

:)

---

by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 14:07:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I doubt it

Citizenship issues.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 14:12:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

He can't speak English, either

the damn furriner!

---

by: Pan @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:18:51 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Doubt it

He'd be labeled an anti-war/non-violance hippie and promptly discredited by the right.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 14:56:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Remember this?

http://theinsidedope.blogspot....

(picture of Jesus from shoulders up, as a faintly mocking voice over says...) Jesus of Nazereth says,

"Give to him who begs from you, and do not refuse him who would borrow from you."

(As the words appear under his picture, an ominous voice intones,

"Jesus
favors more government handouts for welfare cheats."

(camera zooms a bit closer on Jesus' face): Jesus of Nazereth says,

"Judge not, that you not be judged."

(ominous voiceover)

Jesus is soft on crime.

(camera zooms yet closer on Jesus' face):

Jesus of Nazereth says, "Render therefore unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's."

(ominous voice)

Jesus will raise your taxes.

(zooms in a little more as picture begins to dissolve into scary negative image.)

Jesus of Nazereth says, "Do not resist one who is evil. But if anyone strikes you on the right cheek, turn to him the other."

(voiceover)

Can we trust Jesus to fight the war on terror?

(as the now extreme close up turns into frightening negative, bullet points appear on the screen accompanied by sounds of a hammer striking metal.)

Jesus -
WRONG on social services
WRONG on crime
WRONG on defense
WRONG for America

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:45:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

LOL

Well that can be taken care of too by right-wingers.  I read awhile back that a gorup of conservatives were going to re-write the bible (not kidding) to make it less liberal sounding.  I don't personally believe the book it true to begin with, but the whole idea still sounds crazy.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:51:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Meek haters are all out

Thank God this election will actually be in ballot booths not the intertubes.

I have asked a couple of times why the posters (and maybe the editors, too) on this blog hate Meek so much.  And the answers I get are: A) His mom seemed to hand off the seat - (I understand this and I resent all the nepotists who do this - Kennedys included) and B) He is more conservative than his far-left wing district - even though everyone here admits that he could never win a statewide race if he did vote that way.  

The first reason is legit, but Chris Dodd, Ted Kennedy, Evan Bayh, Stephanie Herseth, Beau Biden, Andre Carson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, both Senators Udall - are all there because of nepotism, too.  It's just silly to make it too big of a deal.  Voters are very comfortable with it.  The fact that many of us aren't is something we can be proud of, but it should not interfere with our judgment of people as candidates for higher office or our judgment of their perfomance in office.

The second reason is in my view dumb.  If he has aspirations for higher office, than that's exactly what he should be doing.  Given the the FL gerrymander delegation.  You have two true talented moderates (Kosmas and Klein), who could be viable statewide, Debbie W-S and Wexler are talented but too far to the left to be viable, and Meek seems a cut above the rest (Corinne Brown, Allen Boyd, Katherine Castor, Grayson (who will probably lose his own seat next year)).

Meek is a good speaker, has a good record for the state, has a pretty good resume, and has been running hard and raising money effectively.  that lloks like a good candidate - especially a state with so few candidates of any kind at all.

---

by: st paul sage @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 12:20:05 PM CST

Thanks for makng the case for Meek

I hadn't seen a strong case made for Meek before.  But in this thread some positives.

And I ain't mad at him.  I don't see that he blocked a better candidate from making a bid (or that he blocked any candidate out of the contest).  This unlike the situation in Alabama last year where one woman's ego, and her race, denied us a solid shot at a Senate seat.

---

by: WoodyNYC @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 13:04:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not haters

Just realists.  And I respect Meek for being the only guy with the guts to actually get in the race.  But good speaker?  Maybe, but not very well informed on the issues.  Not sure why you would claim Kathy Castor is a worse candidate than Meek.  She is far more electable.

And Grayson "probably" losing next year?  Sorry but no.  Every top-tier (and there are countless of them) republicans in FL-08 passed on that race, as did most 2nd-tier candidates.  That's probably not a coincidence.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:39:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I know Pam Iorio was also a fave here

but she did not choose to run.

Happy Thanksgiving to the editors here and all the regular posters.

Now - to the bourbon Pecan Pie recipe...

---

by: st paul sage @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 13:55:51 PM CST

bourbon Pecan Pie?

the thought of that makes my stomach cry because it knows it wont be having one of its own tomorrow.  That sounds delicious!

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:27:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]