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FL-Gov: Sink Trails McCollum by 13 Points

by: James L.

Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, no trend lines):

Alex Sink (D): 31
Bill McCollum (R): 44
Undecided: 25

Alex Sink (D): 27
Charlie Crist (R): 47
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Getting back into the gube race must look like a pretty tempting option for Crist at this point... were it not for the fact that McCollum is waxing Crist's ass by a 49-35 spread in a hypothetical GOP primary.

This is PPP's first look at Florida this cycle, and the numbers for the gube race have to be considered a big (if not unsurprising) disappointment for DGA strategists who were giving each other back-slaps when this race opened up last year. There's nothing that Alex Sink can do at this point to fix the political environment, but there is a good deal of evidence out there suggesting that there are plenty of things that she can do to right the course of her campaign: a more coherent and substantive communications approach, a willingness to "work a room" and meet with grassroots activists, and perhaps signing up for a "Media Relations 101" boot camp. Let's hope she gets her act together -- and quickly.
James L. :: FL-Gov: Sink Trails McCollum by 13 Points
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FL-Gov: Sink Trails McCollum by 13 Points | 19 comments
Nice line on male grooming
I have to believe there is more than enough time to turn this around. As PPP suggest, neither are that well known which in itself says to me people aren't really taking much notice right now.
Okay, so...
... a candidate named Sink is receding in the polls and the SSP team couldn't be bothered to come up with even the most perfunctory of puns? To think this is coming from the same folks that brought us "Panic! At Tedisco" and "Carnahan Smokes Blunt"...

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Once again
This ain't the Hotline!
[ Parent ]
"Panic! At Tedisco"
Remains one of my favourite blog headlines ever.  
[ Parent ]
Carnahan smokes Blunt
I have a feeling we'll be hearing that one again quite a few times in November.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Dude
Any jokes about "Sink" are far too obvious. "Panic! at Tedisco" and "Jimmy T. Bags" are much subtler fare. But if you insist:


[ Parent ]
at least ...
... She's not running a meek campaign.  
[ Parent ]
Does McCollum have a place to land?
If Crist switched back to Gov race does McCollum have a place to land? Does he take Lt Gov spot (with the idea that eithr Crist or McCollum runs Sen vs Nelson in 2012).

Does McCollum switch back to a re-election to AG or does he drop down & try to get his old Congressional seat back and run against Alan Grayson. Or does he take it to Crist and try and Rubio him in the GOP primary.

Would be interesting to see what would happen if Crist switched back to Gov.

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McCollum has said
That he won't back down. And why would he? Crist is as vulnerable as he's ever been in a GOP primary right now.
[ Parent ]
I
really don't see how Crist can make it through any republican primary this year.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He is lucky though
that Florida has such a late primary.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Late Primary Bad for Crist
I think the late primary really hurt Crist, it let Rubio enter the race. Rubio's campaign knew they'd have 6 months to knock down Crist. They never thought they would pass a popular incumbent Governor in 2 months so they thought they'd need as much time as possible. If the primary was scheduled for March I don't think Rubio would have entered.
[ Parent ]
Poor
Sink. Not only she's following the strategy of Senator (Oops, I mean the one who turned a sure win into a 5 point loss in Massachusetts) Martha Coakley, but McCollum is going to ride Rubio's teabagger powered coattails into Tallahassee in November. She'll lose by double digits like her husband did in 2002. Let's just hope Meek and Sink's annihilation at the top of the ticket doesn't drag Grayson and Kosmas with them.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
It's March
Judging the type of campaign a candidate is running right now is kind of silly, let alone comparing it to Choakley.  The only campaign most candidates should be running is the raise tons of money and get as much favorable unpaid media as possible.

There are exceptions, such as running for the primary or the endorsement like in MN.  Or like MN-6 where the district is clearly very Republican but you have a shot due to the incumbent, those are always special circumstances and require more constituent engaging campaigns earlier on.

But yeah, its March.  Im sweating races like this one yet nor ready to declare the candidate is pulling a Coakley, in March, 8 months out.

[ Parent ]
Rubio coatails?
Rubio is strong in a Republican primary but he turns off moderates that are needed in a general. Rubio will have the opposite of a coattail effect in the general. He might keep moderates away or worse vote for the Democrat.

Sink and Coakley have no similarities besides both being female. There are plenty of candidates that have become duds and jumping to Coakley is a mistake. Sink is in a lean Republican state, in a Republican year, and is running from a relatively unknown position (i.e. not as an AG). Comparing Sink to Coakley is naive.

8 months is a long time in politics. McCollum could make mistakes, the economy could turn around, the election might not be a referendum on health care (it won't be if the Dems pass it soon), and Sink might find a local issue like traffic where she beats McCollum. Besides, Florida has a handful of expensive media markets and the key to any candidate right now is raising lots and lots of money. Without money you can't win in Florida.

[ Parent ]
Wexler
I know there is zero chance but I really am hoping that Wexler decides to run for Governor. Wexler would be an amazing progressive Governor and would set himself up for a Presidential run after being Governor of the biggest swing state in the country.
not this year

[ Parent ]
It's a good year to run as a progressive
It's not a very good year to run as a big government liberal or conservative.
[ Parent ]
100% Wrong
I disagree completely. It's a bad year to be a political/corporate insider (Reid, Lincoln, Dodd) but if you're genuine about wanting things to change (from left or right) voters will like you. Look at the Dems in the best spot, they tend to be fairly liberal. The blue dog types are the ones getting killed.
[ Parent ]
FL-Gov: Sink Trails McCollum by 13 Points | 19 comments

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