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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 5

by: James L.

Sun Feb 14, 2010 at 11:42 PM EST


Yet another blast of polls from America's most annoyingly prolific pollster.

LA-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Charlie Melancon (D): 33 (35)
David Vitter (R-inc): 57 (53)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (2/9, likely voters):

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 29
Mike Bouchard (R): 42
Other: 8
Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 28
Peter Hoekstra (R): 44
Other: 8
Undecided: 20

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 30
Mike Cox (R): 45
Other: 8
Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 32
Mike Bouchard (R): 40
Other: 10
Undecided: 18

Andy Dillon (D): 34
Peter Hoekstra (R): 41
Other: 10
Undecided: 15

Andy Dillon (D): 36
Mike Cox (R): 35
Other: 11
Undecided: 17

Virg Bernero (D): 31
Mike Bouchard (R): 40
Other: 9
Undecided: 20

Virg Bernero (D): 30
Peter Hoekstra (R): 43
Other: 7
Undecided: 19

Virg Bernero (D): 34
Mike Cox (R): 40
Other: 9
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (43)
Roy Blunt (R): 49 (49)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 6 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (2/9-10, likely voters):

Tracy Potter (D): 17
John Hoeven (R): 71
Other: 4
Undecided: 8

Heidi Heitkamp (D): 29
John Hoeven (R): 65
Other: 1
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (2/9-10, likely voters):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 40
Rick Berg (R): 46
Other: 3
Undecided: 11

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45
Kevin Cramer (R): 44
Other: 3
Undecided: 7

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 47
Paul Schaffner (R): 38
Other: 5
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (2/10, likely voters, 1/12 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (40)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (49)
Other: 3 (3)
Not Sure: 13 (8)

Paul Hodes (D): 44 (45)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38 (38)
Other: 4 (6)
Not Sure: 13 (11)

Paul Hodes (D): 41 (43)
Bill Binnie (R): 42 (37)
Other: 3 (5)
Not Sure: 13 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (2/8, likely voters):

Jack Wagner (D): 28
Tom Corbett (R): 49
Other: 5
Undecided: 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 29
Tom Corbett (R): 51
Other: 5
Undecided: 15

Dan Onorato (D): 26
Tom Corbett (R): 52
Other: 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (2/8, likely voters, 1/18 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 47 (49)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 10 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (35)
Pat Toomey (R): 43 (43)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 15 (16)
(MoE: ±3%)
James L. :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 5
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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 5 | 34 comments
ND-AL
Wasn't there just a poll about a week ago that showed Pomeroy up like 7 or 8 on his challengers?
Not
gonna lie, this polls hurt alot  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
I'm guessing the vast majority of not sures
are democrats.  
Pomeroys seat is gone

[ Parent ]
It wouldn't surprise me if he lost
given that he's a Democrat in a state that seems to be going very Republican now. But for you to post this based on a single Rasmussen poll, if you'll pardon the expression, is really bullshit. Let's wait for some confirmation in other polls before going off the deep end (or trolling?).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Overall, I Agree With You For Calling BS...
...on apocalyptic statements, but I'll even quibble with you on the idea that ND "seems to be going very Republican now."  Based on the presidential results, it's actually going very Democratic now. ND had a 9 point swing from Kerry to Obama. The only state that was contested in 2008 that had a greater swing from Kerry to Obama was Indiana. Overall, only Indiana and Hawaii had a greater % swing toward Obama, and the only other states that were within a point of ND's swing were VT, UT and neighboring Montana.  Furthermore, 2 of the three states that had the greatest swings in legislative seats in 2004 (I know from memory) were ND's neighbors Minnesota and Montana.  And while in North Dakota, the swings haven't resulted in change of control, they have been significant.  Before the 2006 election, the breakdown in the Senate was 15D/32R and in the House it was 27D/67R.  After the 2008 election, the breakdowns were 21D/26R and 36D/58R.

Maybe since the 2008 election ND is "going very Republican," but in the absence of actual voting data or significantly more and varied polling than what we get from Rasmussen, I'll not only withhold judgment, I'll rely on the hard data that suggest the exact opposite, that North Dakota, while still a very Republican state, is trending Democratic about as strongly as any place in America.  

[ Parent ]
States like ND are hard to poll
It is like Alaska, so you really can't take one poll and turn it into Pomeroy's death sentence. That is not to say that he is safe by any means though, and with Hoeven on the top of the ticket he will have to fight hard. Lets just hope he doesn't get scared and jump ship, then we have absolutely no chance in hell of keeping this seat.                

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Even with the Swing
McCain won the state with 53% of the vote, which is about 8 percent more than he got nation wide. None of North Dakota's statewide offices are held by Democrats. So I think it is safe to say that ND is still solidly in the Republican column. I'm not saying Pomeroy is done for, I do believe is in trouble though.  
[ Parent ]
I Know It's Safe to Say...
...it's still solidly R.  That's why I said it in the comment to which you responded.  But my point is that there are much more Republican districts held by Dems, and the trend in ND is not away from Dems (like it is in much of Appalachia and some exurban areas in the North) but toward the Dems, compared to national averages over several elections.  So there's no ND-specific reason to say Pomeroy is done.  In fact, Pomeroy has won in climates that in ND were probably significantly worse than what he's facing right now.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was talking about a more recent trend than 2008
I hear you on not having enough data to be sure what's happening since then, but also, keep in mind that in 2008, Obama was running as the change candidate during a severe economic downturn, and now, the Democrats will be the majority of the incumbents during what looks likely to still be a weak economy.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Oh Please
Do you have any idea how many seats we have in districts that are generally very Republican?  Pomeroy's easily held that seat in times that were very poor Democratic years, including his first reelection, in 1994.  

I've seen no credible evidence that one election after North Dakota gave Obama 44%--in a state where Lyndon Johnson is the only Democratic presidential candidate since 1936 (which includes FDR's 3rd and 4th elections) to get more than 45%--that the environment there is so toxic that Pomeroy's in significantly more danger than he has been in other crappy years like 1994, 2002 and 2004.  

[ Parent ]
Well
The first time Pomeroy got to (almost) 60% of the vote was 2004. Before that he was generally held to the low-mid 50s. I'd say that's pretty indicative that he's never really nailed down the seat. Sure, he had an easy re-election in 2006 and 2008, but so did most Democrats.
[ Parent ]
I Think You're Missing a Key Point
Pomeroy has consistently ran probably 15 points about the Dem base in ND, and the Dem base isn't as bad as it used to be. Even if this is a weak Dem year, it probably wont' be as bad as 1994.  

You can't look at someone's percentage and say they haven't nailed down the seat without knowing what the base is.  There are a lot of people who've won competitive seats through tough contests who may not win by more than 10-12 points, but they're very tough to beat, because they've been tested and already have gotten the support of a lot of swing voters.  When I think of people who "haven't nailed down the seat," I'm more inclined to think of people who haven't performed well against the base, especially if they haven't had a tough campaign in a while.  I don't think that's true of Pomeroy.

The Dems we should be worried about this year are roughly in two categories. There are those who won in 2006 but didn't do much better in 2008, like Carol Shea Porter or Michael Arcuri.  Then there are those in districts that are trending away from the Dems and may not have had a tough race in a long time.  I would think those in Appalachia/AR/MO or in R-trending rural areas outside of New England are the most vulnerable this election, because those are the places that have been trending against us where we have a decent number of members who haven't faced tough elections in several cycles.  

[ Parent ]
you may be right...
...i always thought of pomeroy as an almost perfect fit for a state like north dakota. he's somewhat conservative but does'nt undermine the democratic party. i wish some of the other conserva-dems were like him.
[ Parent ]
LA-Sen
Can Vitter really have a 57-33% lead? I know he's been polling ahead of Melancon, that just seems way extreme to me. Then again, this is Rasmussen...
Its possible
Vitter has been getting alot of good press lately for taking on Obama. Melancon has not been getting his name out much.  
[ Parent ]
The
only reason why Vitter looked like he was vulnerable was because of the whole DC Madam affair. As this proves, time heals wounds. If the DC Madam thing exploded close to election day Vitter would be toast, but it exploded years before he was up for reelection. So he's had time to lick his wounds, plus as you say, taking on Obama doesn't hurt in Louisiana.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
ND has the lowest unemployment
at 4.4%

http://www.bls.gov/lau/

plus they don't have a deficit this year, so if pomeroy loses it won't be the economy, at least not as the major issue.  more likely, it will be a combination of the state's republican and libertarian tendencies, campaign quality, and their attitudes toward the obama admin and dem congress.  at least almost all of those variables can be controlled easier than the economy, that's something.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

I see Pomeroy as a real bellwether
I've been arguing that the vast majority of seats Dems will lose have to do with a regional alignment -- the bottom falling out of the Democratic Party in the South and Appalachian regions as a result of demographic shifts and a racial backlash against Obama.  By that theory, we're due in the House for what 2004 was in the Senate -- a wholesale housecleaning of Southern Conservadems in rock-red districts, but very little change in other regions.

If that theory is to hold, Dems like Pomeroy have to be able to stick it out in red regions that aren't in the South.  There's very little realignment reason for Pomeroy to lose when he was able to survive against strong opponents in 1994, 2000, and 2002.  If Pomeroy loses, it means the prognosticators are right, and I'm wrong -- we're in for a massive 1994-style wave as a reaction against Democratic policies.

So I'll be watching this one very closely.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

i think you're right...
...about pomeroy being a bellweather.the dems seem completly tone deaf right now and i see no change on the horizon. my fear is if this is indeed another 1994 and the gop sweeps its way back in control of congress they will then begin making changes into law that will make sure that NEVER lose power again. i do not trust them and the democratic party and pres. obama had better wake up and take a close look at who they are dealing with.
[ Parent ]
They've already tried
to set their majorities into stone while even having a GOP president in place with Bush.  If they couldnt do it in 2000 with 9/11 at their backs then I doubt they'll do it with Obama in office.
[ Parent ]
kind of hard to believe
Rasmussen hasn't polled IN-Sen. I wonder if there is any way to prove whether he sits on numbers that aren't favorable to Republicans.
Rasmussen's polls...
...should be considered nothing more than comic relief. he has the same agenda as the gop. he may not be able to sit on unfavorable numbers but he can bury them in a slew of pro-gop bs. the MSM, with ony one or two exceptions, will never dig into the numbers and promote his dems are doomed meme without question.
[ Parent ]
Keep blaming the messager and
you will be in for a very nasty surprise on election day.  
[ Parent ]
Okay, this is really becoming spammy.
Regardless of the results, Rasmussen is putting out far, far more polls than anyone else.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Kind of funny
that they have time to poll ND at large but not Indiana Senate. If you notice they had a IN senate poll out immediately after Pence said he was thinking about it (with numbers that where encouraging for Pence), but after the major development of Coats getting in they decide to shut up. I am not a conspiracy theorist but there really seems to be something fishy going on there.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
speaking of IN-Sen
[ Parent ]
WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT
Okay, sorry for the all caps, but if this is serious, and not some kind of nasty joke, holy crud. I don't have any more words.
[ Parent ]
I agree
I've become sort of a defender of Rasmussen on this site, but I agree this was fishy, and also not polling the Brown-Coakley election right before it happened (my guess was that he did poll it, and his results were favorable to Coakley, so he decided not to publish it. Maybe not even because he wanted to help Brown, but because his results were so much different than what other pollsters were getting).

I'm glad SSP prints these poll results, because I think in the end Rasmussen does get the numbers right. But it doesn't mean I'm in denial about Rasmussen's purpose in doing these polls.  

[ Parent ]
News Breaking
Evan Bayh to retire:
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj...

Love or hate him, it's a disaster

COWARD!!!!!
Screw him, Dan Coats is an easy kill. I never liked him, and I think we will be better off with Ellsworth anyway.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Come on Evan. It's Dan Coats...
...not George Bush.  You don't need to run scared.  Your dad went up against Richard Luger who had almost God like popularity and ran against far tougher opponents every time than Dan Coats.

At least you retired on Monday and didn't wait for the filing deadline on Friday.  We REALLY appreciate the advance notice you gave us.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
The filing deadline is Friday in Indiana?
Surely Bayh was not so careless and selfish to have not alerted those who have Senate aspirations in Indiana that he was at least pondering leaving his seat and to be prepared if he chose to do so.

The exodus of Democrats, and Republicans for that matter, makes me wonder if it is really getting that hard for our elective officials to feel productive in the current hyper-partisan environment; or if they know, or sense, that something politically more damaging is lurking out there- i.e. another economic downturn/financial panic.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Is Rasmussen trying to conduct some sort of social experiment?
The sheer number of polls that Rasmussen is putting out makes it appear he is trying to drive/engineer a narrative to shape the national political environment.  

Democrat: TN-8
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 5 | 34 comments

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