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MN-Gov, NH-Sen, NV-Sen: Rasmussen Round-up

by: James L.

Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 4:06 PM EST


The incredibly prolific Rasmussen Reports has touched down in three states today, so let's look at what they have for us in one post.

NH-Sen (1/12, likely voters, 9/14 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 40 (38)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 49 (46)
Other: 3 (5)
Not Sure: 8 (12)

Paul Hodes (D): 45
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38
Other: 6
Not Sure: 11

Paul Hodes (D): 43
Bill Binnie (R): 37
Other: 5
Not Sure: 15
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (1/11, likely voters, 12/9 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)
Sue Lowden (R): 48 (49)
Other: 8 (6)
Undecided: 7 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 36 (43)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 50 (49)
Other: 5 (6)
Undecided: 9 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (43)
Sharron Angle (R): 44 (47)
Other: 10 (7)
Undecided: 7 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (1/11, likely voters, 11/10 in parens):

R.T. Rybak (D): 25 (30)
Mark Dayton (D): 34 (30)
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 12 (8)
Matt Entenza (D): 5 (6)
Other: 10 (5)
Not Sure: 13 (20)
(MoE: ±5%)

Norm Coleman (R): 52 (50)
Marty Seifert (R): 9 (11)
Tom Emmer (R): 9 (1)
Pat Anderson (R): 5
Other: 7 (7)
Not Sure: 18 (26)
(MoE: ±6%)

Not a lot of surprises here -- Reid is tanking, and Rasmussen picked the best possible time to show how damaged he is. The Minnesota Governor's race is tilted in the direction of the ex-Senators, but I find it hard to imagine Dayton proving to be a formidable candidate after the DFL convention.

I'm almost mildly surprised that Rasmussen isn't showing a better result for insurgent candidates Lamontagne and Binnie in the New Hampshire Senate race, but I suppose that neither of of those guys have established themselves in the public consciousness to a great degree yet. What I'm really interested in seeing is how Ayotte holds up in a GOP primary.

James L. :: MN-Gov, NH-Sen, NV-Sen: Rasmussen Round-up
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NH
Hodes seems to be running a Coakley-esque campaign.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Agreed, he's been lifeless
Still, I think he could beat Lamontagne and Binnie by pretty solid margins. Ayotte's running to the center, which is nice and all if she can make it through the primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
How Is That a Comparison?
Hodes will face the voters 10 months from now. Coakley will face them next week. You'd kind of expect a quietish campaign 10 months out.

[ Parent ]
Backwards
Dayton is a non-factor in the convention. It is the primary where he has a chance b/c of name ID and money. But he's not going to win.  

In a multi candidate field...
... Dayton could win a primary. With Entenza, Geartner, Dayton and whoever gets the convention endorsement all going to the primary it may only take 30% to win.

The Dems will probably find a way to lose anyway but I am amazed at how thin the Republican bench is in Minnesota. Norm has lost statewide races to Jessie Ventura and Al Franken, you just don't come back from that (We all love Al, but his election was something of a minor miracle). Sieffert and Emmer are way to conservative for that state and are not nearly as adept at hiding it as Pawlenty is. There is no excuse for the Democrats not to win the governorship easily even in a down year for team Blue.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
I did not mean to suggest
That Dayton would be formidable at the convention. I meant that, by that time, another contender or two would be in a better position to beat him.

[ Parent ]
After a Ras adjustment...
Hodes is tied, Reid is behind by five or six points.

Two faintly blue states, so about tied is right on the money, but Reid's numbers are pathetic (though after a Ras adjustment he should be Angle if she somehow wins the primary).

Still another useless Nevada poll... poll someone other than reid as a Dem, run primary numbers on the Reps.


Given Mason-Dixon in NV, PPP in MA
Do we still need a Rasmussen adjustment?

I'm not doubting his personal bias, I'm thinking he knows the game is up, that we're watching, so he has to provide at least some legit numbers to maintain his credibility.

Alternatively, we'd have to attack the internals from Mason-Dixon and PPP as well.  


[ Parent ]
I don't believe it
Hodes will win. He is a popular Congressman with no negatives. New Hampshire has been good to the Democrats since 2004.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

...so a CHANGE could be overdue.
NH was a conservative state for a long time, have all those voters moved left, or have the newcomers been Democrats?  If it was the latter, they could swing back again.  

NH may be the next Vermont in the making, but it could swing back the other way too. This is particularly true on the Federal level.

VA went Red, then Blue, now it is making it's way back toward red a little (last night's senate race nowithstanding).  NH could be VT or VA.  

I say all this to warn against thinking Hodes is in the bag. 2010 will be a GOP year after all, to one degree or another.  

 


[ Parent ]
Indeed
Obama's victory in NH was only something like 1.5% above his national percentage, and Shaheen only won by 6%. At least some of the good fortune the Dems have had in NH is because of Lynch's huge victory margins the last two elections.

[ Parent ]
Lynch
and we'll be able to count on that again

I don't see anybody on the Republican side coming close to beating Lynch.  Even in this off year I bet he clocks in at over 65%

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
any idea what lynchs popularity is?
with almost every governor taking a hit popularity wise, i wouldn't be surprised if lynch is a little less popular than he once was.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Ras has him at 58% approval


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
So, his approval is 89%? :p


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
All except Hoven (ND)
Its pretty sad how things worked out there, huh?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Hoeven has the good fortune
of being in the state least affected by the recession, thanks to the booming petroleum industry. The unemployment rate in North Dakota is the lowest in the country at just over 4%.

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen, MN-Gov
Here is what Ive been thinking for some time now, and is only reflected by this poll, it has very little to do with Hodes being a crappy candidate and there being a sudden GOP bent in NH, it has a lot to do with Ayotte having dominated the local news when she announced for the weeks after.

She announced and was immediately attacked for being picked AG while Lynch assumed she'd stay on that role this whole time.  It was tried to be framed as negative but meh, normal people really dont care about stuff like that.  (ie. Mike Johans.)  And then she got negative press for not being sufficiently conservative and has attracted more right-wing candidates because she is pro-choice or something in moderate loving NH.  

I just think Ayotte has been the in the news lately while Hodes has silently been poorly building up his funds for the race.  And this poll shows that it has very little to do with a Hodes problem but more so with an Ayotte surplus.  

The MN-Gov polls are probably just an indication of name recognition.  Rybak has big name rec for being a Twin City mayor, Dayton from being a Senator, MAK for being the one out front for the DFL dominated legislature and them getting pwned by Pawlenty repeatedly.....  It's MAK's one giant flaw, getting spanked by Pawlenty as he out-maneuvered the state legislature over and over again.  His unallotment plan is proving to be illegal so his new best out-maneuver was him line-item vetoing the Central Corridor lightrail funding and only promising to unveto it if the legislature passes a property tax cap.

Pawlenty is going to be bland in the Presidential race, but his handlers and consultants are absolutely killing us here in MN.


Minnesota numbers
The headline in the St. Paul Pioneer Press article talked about Minnesotans' opinions on a new Vikings stadium, but in the poll were numbers on the Governor race and other interesting political numbers.  The poll was conducted by Decision Resources Ltd. (no idea if they are partisan or what their reputation is).

http://www.twincities.com/ci_1...

Some tidbits:

-- Mark Dayton leads Norm Coleman 41-31, and Dayton leads Marty Seifert (state House member)41-25
-- Margaret Anderson Kelliher (MN House Speaker) leads Coleman 33-31
-- Minnesotans oppose a Tim Pawlenty run for president by a 2-1 margin;  he has a 29/69 approval disapproval
-- the Minnesota Legislature is at 20/75
-- Al Franken's positive/negative view is 33/49
-- Michele Bachmann's is 12/76
-- people IDing as lib/mod/cons:  15% liberal (21% from last year), 48% moderate (35% last year), 34% conservative (29% last year)
-- people IDing as Dem/Rep/ind:  38% Democratic (44% last year), 32% Republican (28% last year), 23% independent (25% last year)
-- 46% said the stimulus helped the economy, 11% said it hurt, and 43% said no difference;  57% oppose passage of another stimulus
-- 57% support the Obama/Democratic health reform plan (yes, that is majority support), 37% oppose it


Interesting results
Even with Republican/Independent ID's up and Dems down a flawed candidate like Mark Dayton has a 10 point lead in the Gov race and Healthcare reform has solid support. Also Minnesotan's are in a anti incumbant mood not matter the party.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]

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