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DE-Sen: Coons Leaning Toward a Run

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 10:34 PM EST


Looks like we may get our huckleberry:

Monday, after Beau Biden dropped his bomb on local and national Democrats who had been convinced he would run, [New Castle County Executive Chris] Coons started fielding calls from party luminaries, including Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, coaxing him to enter the race. Coons' mother called to say she saw his name on MSNBC as a potential Senate hopeful.

The charm and pressure offensive appears to be paying dividends for the party that suddenly found itself with no candidate to run against Castle, one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history.

"I'm leaning toward running," Coons said Tuesday, adding that he would announce his decision by early next week. "This all emerged very quickly."

Rasmussen also has a poll out (1/25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Castle (R): 56
Chris Coons (D): 27
Other: 5
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is a far cry from R2K's test in October, which showed Coons trailing by a much smaller 51-39 margin. A PPP poll from all the way back in March of 2009 had Castle up 56-21 over Coons in a hypothetical House race matchup, but I'd like to see something a lot fresher before coming to any conclusions.

(Hat-tip to Taegan on the Coons story.)
DavidNYC :: DE-Sen: Coons Leaning Toward a Run
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DE-Sen: Coons Leaning Toward a Run | 33 comments
I suspect Castle will probably win
But there is a plausible scenario where he coasts on his rep and makes mistakes. Coons being the much younger man should certainly be able to out-campaign Castle. These numbers are very similar to what Suffolk found in late November in MA. Obviously the wind is pointing in the other direction but there is always hope.
I agree with Castle being lazy and old.
I'm also under the suspicion that Joe and Obama aren't going to let Rhode Island go down without a fight. I think both will be throwing some big punches for Coons. DSCC should have a ton of ammo with all the votes Castle has taken.

But they could just write it off like Mass. I hope to be surprised once Coons pushes his name rec up.  

[ Parent ]
Rhode Island?
:)
[ Parent ]
I resent that...
you won't find coffee milk, Block Island, or Brown University in Delaware! :(

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Or bubblers
Or Del's Frozen Lemonade, or Haven Bros.

Man, I would kill for some coffee milk.

[ Parent ]
Could it be?
another Rhode Islander on SSP? :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
'fraid not
I live in Ohio now. But a Brunonian!
[ Parent ]
What's the difference?
Tiny states, no people. Nuf said.
[ Parent ]
Um, no.
Delaware's a tiny state with no people. Rhode Island's a tiny state with a much denser population.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Delaware
I don't see them writing it off. Blue state and the VP's seat? No way. ND is gone. They should leave Reid and Lincoln to their own devices since their fundraising has been excellent despite their problems. Most crucial seats are here and in Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania.
[ Parent ]
A 3rd-tier candidate . . .
With a last name of Coons . . . good grief.
Third-tier?
A little harsh.
[ Parent ]
In 1972, a mere New Castle County Councilman ran
for the US Senate against a 63 yr old moderate Republican....

and won in an upset. This is still a race.

(I suspect everyone here knows the name of that former Councilman.)

I'm not sure who you're talking about
'cause I hear that guy went on to silent mediocrity :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
DE
I Like Coons and hopes he wins, but even in a good environment he would be a 75/25 Dog, Now he's a 90/10 Dog.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Wow...
90/10 is a little pessimistic even for you, Tekzilla. At this point, this seat is Leans Republican pick-up. It's not North Dakota, Arkansas or Nevada. At this point, I'd say it's the GOP's fourth most likely pick-up.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Actually though I think there is an argument that can be made that in strictly polling terms it is number two or three and Arkansas is number four. But in the end I probably agree with your order. I have Colorado next then Pennsylvania and Illinois. California and Indiana in a tie followed by New York and Wisconsin. In terms of Republican seats I'm optimistic about Missouri and New Hampshire and pessimistic on Ohio and Kentucky.
[ Parent ]
You know, I gotta say
isn't it a little transparent for Rasmussen to suddenly, when Coons name comes up, to shoot that poll out there like that, especailly with such a wide difference in the numbers from the last one?  At this point it should be obvious what there game is-they're trying to convince Democrats there's no hope so that certain ones drop out and others don't run at all.  Personally I say we just call 'em on the B.S. and stop looking as Rasmussen polling entirely.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Same MO
With his Indiana release but obviously in reverse.
[ Parent ]
Bingo.
[ Parent ]
And now in WI
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Next it'll be Dave Reichert at 47% in WA.

[ Parent ]
WI
Jeez.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
He is so transparent

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
must of discovered no Republican mentioned could beat Gillibrand so he put up generic Republican so he can release a poll saying that Gillibrand is screwed in November.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Check out his spin on the SOTU
Oh how I wish we could prove he is up to some funny business a la Strategic Vision.
[ Parent ]
Give it time.
If it's one thing I've learned in my short time on this planet it's that the things you do usually catch up to you.  In the meantime, let's start ignoring what Rasmussen has to say.  The worst thing about this is crap is that it's arguable that Democratic politicians are taking it seriously and responding to them by either dropping out or not running at all.  So why don't we try to stop some of the hemorrhaging by just ignoring this douche.  

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Likely Castle
(with chances about 80-20 in present situation), but at least Coons will give him a race. If no one else wants to run  - that's something..
Lets hope he runs, wins
and that Carper's seat gets tied up for awhile so that we can keep Beua out of the Senate for as long possible.
Why would we want to do that?
[ Parent ]
Oh yeah
Beau would at least be a step-up policy wise.
[ Parent ]
Beau's only mistake
Was not announcing he wouldn't run for the Senate sooner. You can't blame the guy for wanting to be AG--it'll let him step out of his dad's shadow a bit more, prove his public servant bonafides, increase his popularity and allow him to run for offices in the future without the taint of seemingly-undeserved success (ie-taking over Daddy's Senate seat). It's a great move for him long-term, even if it's not what a lot of national Dems wanted.

And hey, it's an anti-incumbent year, and Castle's about as incumbent-y as they come. Coons could win this thing.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Um, no
His mistake is being a party to a lunatic backroom deal.

No way would Castle be running against Senator Carney.

Beau was part of deal where the seat was made available to him, and he is facing who everyone knew would be the most likely Republican to face, and he runs away after wetting his pants.  Whatever else it was, it was pitifully unimpressive.

[ Parent ]
The deal would have been made while Beau was in Iraq
Would Beau even have been a  party to the deal?
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Coons Leaning Toward a Run | 33 comments

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