Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters):
John Carney (D): 32
Mike Castle (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 19Chris Coons (D): 21
Mike Castle (R-inc): 56
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.5%)
This poll is already a couple of days old now, but it’s still worth a look. After being given a pass by Democrats since he was first elected to the House in 1992, PPP tests Castle against two credible potential 2010 foes: former Lt. Gov. John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (Carney has expressed interest in the race, but I’m not sure if I can say the same for Coons). The results are unsurprising: Castle would begin the campaign with a wide lead, but rests just under the 50% bubble against Carney. Tom Jensen takes a look under the hood:
Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party’s candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
There’s also a matter of name recognition, which is still an issue for Carney despite a high profile gubernatorial primary campaign last fall; a full 35% of voters don’t have an opinion of him either way. In other words: Carney has room to grow, and while this would be an uphill climb, he’d have an outside shot at an upset — and perhaps an even better shot if Castle’s campaign skills prove rusty.
Another point worth mentioning about this poll is the rather surprising fact that it was written up by the National Journal’s Hotline. In case you’re not aware, in previous cycles, the Hotline had clung to a strict policy of ignoring the existence of IVR (a.k.a. “automated”) polling, seemingly in adherence to the Beltway belief that automated polling is unreliable and untrustworthy (“the dog could be answering the questions!”). I’m not sure what’s behind the editorial change-of-heart over at the Hotline (perhaps the generally solid performance of IVR firms in 2008 had something to do with it), but I’m glad that they’ve made the decision to join the 21st Century.
Did they poll a Biden vs. Carney primary?
I think those are pretty decent numbers considering the circumstances. He could make a race of it if he ran and fundraised like he needed to. He would be a very serious candidate and probably make this a toss-up in the end of it. Or force Castle to retire.
I never understood the hostility, since polls are so easy to evaluate once you have the final results in. Either a method works (IVR) or it doesn’t (Zogby’s joke Internet polling). It’s easy to figure out which.
Really he’d have to pull off a Sheldon Whitehouse to beat Castle. Castle doesn’t give any Democrat much to run against him on since he’s the most liberal republican left in the house. The key is paining him as being a republican enabler, something which would be tough to do given democrats big house majority. But it’s definately possible.
Hopefully he does run. Just him getting into the race could possibly persuade Castle to retire.