R2K doesn't give us the breakdown by race

which is always something I look for in a state with a significant minority presence.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:13:18 PM UTC

Agree, it seems Markos forgot about Delaware demographics......

Some get the impression Delware is just a rural white state and the home of corporate America, not realizing nearly one-quarter of the population is non-white.

I think Markos didn't know or forgot that, because he's usually very good in his polls about making sure the DKos/R2K polls query on every relevant demographic category.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 02:40:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even way back when I was a kid/teenager

I knew that Delaware was anything but a white/rural state. I had seen that it's one of the densest states, so I figured it had to be very urban, and because it was very urban, I figured there would be a lot of nonwhite people living there.

But then I was a U.S. state and map geek even back in the 3rd grade so maybe I am an exception. And I was not aware of Delaware being a "corporate" state until 200 frickin' 5, even after I had voted twice.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 03:37:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same. I knew it had a sizeable black population

because I knew it was a slave state. Didn't really know about it's corporate nature.  

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by: sulthernao @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 04:41:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not all slave states are created equal.

Arkansas: 16% black
Tennessee: 17% black
Kentucky: 8% black
Delaware: 20% black
Texas: 11% black
Mississippi: 37% black
North Carolina: 22% black
Florida: 16% black
Maryland: 30% black

there's a lot of range in there.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 12:40:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Delaware is a mix of both

rural and urban.  New Castle County, which is the northern part of the state (and the part you drive through on I-95) contains about half of the state's population and is home to Wilmington, where the vast majority of the African American population resides.  There is also a lot of suburbia not only for Wilmington but for folks who commute to Philly/Baltimore/DC/New York.  The other two downstate counties, Kent and Sussex, are very rural, white, and small-town, and rely primarily on agriculture and tourism.  The New Castle/downstate split is pretty common in Delaware politics, as the southern part is something you'd see out of South Carolina (twang and all) and is much more conservative.  

The reason why Delaware went from being one of the nation's bellweather states (from WWII till 2000 it picked every Presidential winner) to a blue state is that Repoublicans have been slowly getting kicked out of the New Castle County suburbs.  Mike Castle built his career on these voters, but it remains to be seen, now that they have a legitimate Democratic alternative, if they will stick with him for a Senate bid.  The fact that he only polls 12 points better than Coons despite Coons being virtually unknown to folks downstate speaks volumes to how many New Castle County voters won't stick with Mike Castle this time around.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 17:01:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like Carney got himself a soft landing.

Good numbers on the Senate race; should be an interesting contest.  Hypothetically, Beau will be rerunning Dad's first campaign (young guy versus state institution), except without the unknown status.

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by: SC @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:26:55 PM UTC

Biden VS castle

If beau Biden runs this shows don't write him off.No
matter how much a moderate Castle tries to postion himself
he still voted against the Stimulas,and will almost
certainly vote against Health Care Reform.If Joe Biden
could go after Mccain he will go after Castle especially
with his son running.Beau Biden was a great speaker at
the convention In 2008,and He could repeat what his father
did back In 1972.

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by: Robbins @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:39:26 PM UTC

Castle Doesn't Have It In Him

Castle's asking for a promotion.

He doesn't have the hustle in him.

Biden wins.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:49:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't see any hustle in Beau.

Joe needs to put the fear of God in his son, quick.

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by: omarka @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:55:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The man just got back from a year in Iraq

Let him visit with his family and get settled again before launching a campaign for US Senate.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 22:40:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When Was The Last Time Castle Actually Ran A Race?

That's the questions that should be asked, and I believe the answer is never. I guess Castle rather than retiring quietly wants to go out with a bang. And no, I don't think Kaufman will run, considering these numbers.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 11:29:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1992

His initial election to Congress, known as "the switch" because he and Tom Carper traded positions. He ran against Lt. Governor S.B. Woo and won 55-43. 2006 is the only other time he's gotten under 60% of the vote, and that was the first time since 1992 that he had a somewhat serious opponent (Dennis Spivack, who raised about $380k, which is probably more than all his other opponents combined).

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 12:16:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Former Lt. Governor, that is

He left office after one term to run against William Roth in 1988 and lost 62-38, so he did better against Castle.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 12:17:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd go one step further

And say that if Beau gets in I think there's a good possiblity Castle gets out. He can come up with whatever excuse he feels like, but he has to believe that his approval numbers will only get worse from here as this race becomes more partisan.

If these were the numbers on October 15, 2010 I'd say Beau probably wins because Delaware is a Democratic state. But the fact that its October 15, 2009 leads me to believe Beau will almost definitely win.

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by: safi @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 02:53:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even without Biden

These are encouraging. Not much of lead for Castle considering his high name recognition and favorability when the Dems aren't very well known at all.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 21:49:12 PM UTC

Me too

I'm excited to see Coons within striking distance as a backup option.  If he were to run against Castle it would be extremely similar to Joe Biden's first run for the Senate.  I hope that if Beau Biden does run for Senate that Coons runs for Attorney General.  

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by: TheGame08 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 23:54:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt Copeland will run

he embarrassed himself with a 61-39 loss last year, and he'd have to give up his State Senate seat to run in 2010.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 22:44:47 PM UTC

True, but if Copeland

wants to move up, this likely will be his best shot with the seat open for quite a while. No guts, no glory.
Plus last time was a Dem wave, the environment is a bit more Repub friendly next year.

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by: homerun @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 22:52:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Copeland already lost his Senate seat

it was taken over by a Democrat despite it being the most GOP State Senate district in New Castle County (I know this cause I worked on the victorious candidate's campaign ;p)

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by: DFLer @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 17:03:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Daddy apparently dropping some hints as to Beau's plans:

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

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by: SC @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 01:32:21 AM UTC

I wonder if Beau's out-of-country absence hurt him in earlier polling......

Beau was clearly down in early polling against Castle months ago, in one poll by 21 points, and now R2K has him down just one a few days after Rasmussen had him down just 4.

The only thing that's changed is that Beau was gone then and is home now.  So I wonder if that's what caused the shift.  After all, he was invisible in Delaware for all his time in Iraq, and voters aren't contemplating why he's gone in a simple polling trial heat question.  Now he's in the news, and they remember him and remember that they like him.

I do think this is going down to the wire.

And I think Beau will have the edge based on age and hunger, combined with dad and dad's boss going to the mat for him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 02:45:45 AM UTC

Polling favors Beau

As I said before, the fact that Castle is only up by 12 on the weakest candidate Chris Coons (lowest name ID, pissed people off with tax increases, etc) is a big sign of weakness by Castle in his home turf.  His formula for winning has always been to sweep the downstate vote while garnering a sizable group of moderate Republican/independent voters in the Wilmington suburbs. I wish we had some more data, but it looks like the suburbanites won't automatically go for Castle this time around.

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by: DFLer @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 17:09:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The timing is interesting in these cases

Biden in this case and Cuomo's in NY.  They are the expected candidates and the party will support them the minute they announce.  Supporters and volunteers get nervous the longer it goes, but they look good to non-politicos for not being political.  So what's the best time?

Castle has raised very little money so Biden doesn't need to jump in to be competitive financially.  I think they both announce in either November or January.  And the rest of us are just going to have to bite our fingernails:(

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by: st paul sage @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 14:50:20 PM UTC

Cuomo can wait till the filing deadline for all he cares.

"running for re-election" he's already outraising Paterson and crushing him in any poll we've seen.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 15:11:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]