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WI-Gov: Total Tossup

by: Crisitunity

Wed Dec 02, 2009 at 12:57 AM EST


PPP (pdf) (11/20-22, likely voters):

Tom Barrett (D): 46
Tommy Thompson (R): 41
Undecided: 13

Tom Barrett (D): 40
Scott Walker (R): 40
Undecided: 20

Tom Barrett (D): 41
Mark Neumann (R): 39
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±3.5%)

PPP takes its first look at Wisconsin's governor's race since the retirement of incumbent Dem Jim Doyle, the entry and then exit of Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, and now the candidacy of ex-Rep., current Milwaukee mayor, and 2002 gubernatorial primary loser Tom Barrett. (They did previously poll on Doyle, finding him losing to two Republicans.) They find close races for Barrett against both Republicans who are definitely in the race, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker and long-ago ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (with the slightly less conservative Walker performing only slightly better, even though Walker's 30/25 favorables certainly beat Neumann's 16/27 -- Barrett, meanwhile, is at 31/21). The only previous poll that has tested a Barrett in a general election matchup was a Walker internal, which posted similar numbers: a late August poll giving Walker a 44-43 lead.

The fear for many Dems was that once-popular ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson might take a cue from Iowa's Terry Branstad and make a play for a fifth term. Between this and his Senate poll numbers from this same sample, though, it looks like he might want to start thinking harder about that mayoral job in Elroy instead. Thompson underperforms the other two Republicans; that, plus his 38/45 favorables, suggest there may be some element of "been there, done that" to his potential candidacy.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Gov

Crisitunity :: WI-Gov: Total Tossup
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I am actually getting a little sick and tired of PPP pessimism
Their tweets on twitter about how the dems are going down next year have gotten so annoying to the fact that I am actually considering unfollowing them. First of all I definately believe that Barrett has way higher statewide recognition than PPP is originally giving do to the fact that he is the Mayor of Milwakee, a former congressman, ran for the gubernatorial nomination in 2002, and made the national news across the county by being a hero this summer. There are also many undecideds in this race because since Jim Doyle is retiring (thus the election is no longer a referendum on Jim Doyle) people don't really care about the election and probably won't start making up their minds till April or May (which is when accurate results in all polling contests will start becoming more apparent). Simply put I expect Barrett to win this by double digits. Here's my prediction:
55% Barrett
43% Walker

Good news regarding Thompson
He clearly ain't Branstad.  Without Thompson in the race I'm perfectly happy to choose between Barrett and Walker/Neumann based on the issues.  I expect Barratt will benefit from a divisive primary, which while it may not be so now, is how it will probably develop.  If either plays the wingnut card, they'll be dead in November.

Why is Thompson doing so badly?
He does the worst in terms of spread here and loses to Feingold by a sizable margin, if I remember correctly.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Exactly what I was thinking
He was fairly popular as Governor.  I really expected his numbers to be the best against Barrett.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, he's the guy we were worried would run against and beat Kohl.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I think W has a part in it
He was such an unabashed Bush backer - not to mention a former HHS Secretary - that it undoubtedly pushed his numbers down.  Plus, Wisconsin has changed quite a bit since he was Governor as it's definitely become more blue over the years.  I also wonder if his brother Ed's run for Governor as a Libertarian back in 2002 (which gave Doyle the election) still has left some sore feelings amongst Republicans.

These poll numbers don't surprise me.  The candidates are extremely Milwaukee-centric, so most voters across the state simply don't know enough about them to make a decision.


[ Parent ]
Your point about 2002
"I also wonder if his brother Ed's run for Governor as a Libertarian back in 2002 (which gave Doyle the election) still has left some sore feelings amongst Republicans."

Looking at the polling numbers for all three Republicans, it appears they have about the same baseline.  Granted, you can't definitively say all three's support comes from the same place, but it would appear that Thompson's problem is isn't really that his Republican support is less than the other Republicans.  It's that more otherwise undecided voters go to the Democrat with Thompson in the race.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Almost forgot.
That makes me wonder if Thompson being in the race is driving more Democrats and Democratically-inclined independents toward the Democrat.  Otherwise, they're going to wait first and see what the candidates are like.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Thompson
He under performs with Republicans. Thats why he does so bad against Feingold and here. I'm sure his support of the public option has a lot to do with it.
BTW, no daily digest today?  

I know. We demand a Daily Digest!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
My internet access
was out until a few hours ago. It was like being cast back into the 20th century or something.

[ Parent ]
How horrible.
My cable modem died, so now I'm forced to surf at school.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Huh?!
He really came out for the public option?  That's a surprise.

[ Parent ]
That
might be a big clue Thompson is either staying out of politics for now, or wants to become mayor of Elroy. No a GOPer running for the senate or governor would come out of the public option.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]

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