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WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape

by: James L.

Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 8:53 PM EDT

Public Policy Polling (6/9-10, registered voters):

Jim Doyle (D-inc): 40
Scott Walker (R): 48
Undecided: 12
Jim Doyle (D-inc): 41
Mark Neumann (R): 42
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.1%)

No diggity doubt about it: these are the worst poll numbers we've seen for two-term Dem Gov. Jim Doyle so far this cycle. An early March poll from the Republican firm POS and a Research 2000 poll released last week both had Doyle in the high 40s and ahead of his GOP foes. SSP friend and PPP guru Tom Jensen pops open the hoods of both his poll and R2K's to tease out the source of disagreement between the two polls:

Where they go in different directions is among Republicans and independents. We find virtually no Republicans- just 6%- approving of the job Doyle is doing while they find 23% looking on him favorably. And while they find only 51% of independents with an unfavorable opinion of him, we find 69% in disapproval of his job performance.

Without a great deal of public polling available from Wisconsin, it's difficult to say who's right and who needs an oil change. However, it's worth noting, as Tom does, that SUSA's latest polling of the state lines up much more closely to PPP's findings than it does to R2K's latest offering.

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James L. :: WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape

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WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape | 6 comments

Anyone else here wondering about PPP?

they had a reputation as being Dem-leaning in some of their earlier polls, but their later ones have seemed to lean much more to the other side. I just don't see Doyle losing to second-stringers like these guys.

by: skaje @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 22:00:14 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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I think PPP is a generally pretty good

organization. It's not like DailyKos is any less susceptible to a lean.

I do think the SUSA numbers are worth a pause, even if the picture is not as bleak as PPP makes it seem.

by: wmlawman @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 22:51:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SUSA

really blew my mind every time they came out with a MN poll. They were just SOOOOOOOOO off from every other polling and from the results.

by: Andrew @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 23:00:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

With the 2008 Presidential

wups, should've been specific. It's commented on before around here and has been kind of pointed before as their big, wtf? from last cycle. Which is really true, everything else from them did some pretty solid.

by: Andrew @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 23:01:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

While not great for Doyle, it's not as bad as it looks either.

Take a look at the crosstabs on the SUSA polling. You'll notice that Doyle only has a 58-34 approval rating among Democrats, and just 53-43 among liberals. Now, a moderate GOP candidate might have an opening with those people. Scott Walker, who probably will be the furthest right-winger to ever win a gubernatorial nomation in Wisconsin (he has a sizable lead in the GOP primary) is not the guy to do it, and thus most of them will end up voting for Doyle. Some of those dissatisfied liberals might consider voting for someone like Sheila Harsdorf, Mike Ellis, or Rob Cowles, to name a few. They're probably not going to vote for the biggest Wisconsin statewide right-winger since Joe McCarthy. Conversely, GOP primary voters are not going to vote for Cowles, Harsdorf, or Ellis.

Incidentally, Russ Feingold looks like he might go without major opposition this time. That could give him more time to get the base a little more fired up about voting for Doyle along with himself.

Doyle's boringness might actually be a strength, if all else fails. If he continues to be unpopular, then his task is to convince people that the boring moderate devil they know is better than the exciting extreme devil they don't.

by: ajwagner @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 23:05:32 PM CDT

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If R2K agrees with POS

Then obviously SUSA and PPP are correct. The dog that barks every time.

by: conspiracy @ Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 12:28:06 PM CDT

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WI-Gov: PPP Says Doyle in Rough Shape | 6 comments