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WI-Sen: Feingold Easily Beats Thompson

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 12:41 PM EST


PPP (pdf) (11/20-22, likely voters):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 50
Tommy Thompson (R): 41
Undecided: 9

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48
Terrence Wall (R): 34
Undecided:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47
Dave Westlake (R): 32
Undecided:
(MoE: ±3.5%)

The Wisconsin Senate race had, until a few weeks ago, been shaping up to be a cakewalk for Russ Feingold. However, a poll from University of Wisconsin surfaced showing Feingold narrowly trailing former Gov. and former HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson (43-39), and Thompson then offered a cryptic non-denial of his interest, saying he was considering runs for governor, senator, and mayor of Elroy.

Well, Thompson may want to start thinking more about the position in Elroy (although it would mean going up against the fearsome Sharon Knuth machine): PPP's poll of the Wisconsin race conflicts pretty thoroughly with the UW poll. Feingold leads Thompson outside the margin of error, and Feingold also has very large leads over the two minor Republicans already in the field. Feingold still provokes some ambivalence, with a 45/37 approval, but that beats Thompson's 38/45 favorable (and Westlake's 2/9!). Thompson may fare better in the open governor's race, and I would expect that we'll see gubernatorial numbers from the same PPP sample fairly soon.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Sen

Crisitunity :: WI-Sen: Feingold Easily Beats Thompson
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To be honest
I'm surprised Feingold looks so good.  I figured against Thompson it would show a statistical dead heat.  Maybe there is a trend here.  Dems with a backbone are in better shape than the spineless variety.

Perhaps
Let's get some Grayson/Periello polling and find out.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I'd definitely like to see those numbers, particularly Periello's
I'm thinking Grayson is probably in a decent position, but I have no idea what to think about Periello yet.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Just a hunch
But I'll bet Grayson's numbers are very good and Periello's generally poor.  Periello is just well left of his district while Grayson is not.  Also, there must be a reason why no republican wants to challenge Grayson and everyone wants to chellenge Periello.

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking that way too
But I'm curious as to whether Periello's frequent appearances in the media and his retail politicking (I think he'd been doing a lot of town halls earlier in the year) are making any difference for him.

I think another key difference (re: eagerness of challengers) between the two is money. Grayson can at least partially bankroll his own campaign, and also has a lot of support from the blogs, whereas Periello doesn't quite have that backing. He gets a lot of deserved support, but he's definitely not a Grayson, or a Feingold for that matter.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
That is possible about Grayson
In fact Grayson may not even need to self-fund anymore considering how idolized he is by the left going forward.  His current fundraising this cycle already dwarfs what he raised for his 2008 campaign.

[ Parent ]
what is the U of Wisconsin's track record?
Do we have reason to believe PPP is more accurate in this state?

Either way, this is an encouraging poll.  


Here's why Feingold polls so when and Thompson polls poorly (in my opinion)
Feingold being a liberal, progressive, and committed to HCR dem excites the dem base to such an extent that they will turn out and vote for Russ Feingold enthusiastically whether a nobody or a top tier challeneges him.

My guess about Tommy Thompson is that he approvals are low because of him being involved with the Bush administration being HHS secretary and the fact the Bush has extremely low approvals in Wisconsin.



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