And to make matters worse

3/4 of Republicans say their reps in Congress are out of touch with the base. http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:36:39 AM CST

Please run, Mr. Hayworth. Please?

Nothing would illustrate the craziness of the modern GOP better than their last Presidential candidate losing his own Senate primary after four terms because he wasn't "conservative enough". Except for maybe running his crazy, uncouth epic fail idiot of a running mate who scares 60% of the country to death against Obama in 2012.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:40:34 AM CST

This is good news

For Sarah Palin! At least according to Bill Kristol.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Seems to me it would hurt her with the base.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:47:04 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It could play out a number of ways

I doubt McCain would endorse her in 2012 even if she were to flex her muscles and show the fundraising and enthusiasm she draws from rank and file conservatives.  If anything it would be an excuse to speak to the people of Arizona.  Although like you said, it could backfire, endorsing the incumbent in an anti-incumbent atmosphere.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:06:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

But we have noone running on our side

We run a very serious risk of Hayworth winning a general election if he upended McCain.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:49:23 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Not much difference

I don't recall McCain voting with the Dems on anything this year.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:50:35 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Still though...

A Senate delegation of Kyl/Hayworth scares me to no end.  That's almost as bad as Oklahoma's Senate delegation.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:55:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Word.

I only see an upside benefit.  If McCain wins easily, this still ties up GOP resources that could be used more productively.  If McCain wins in a narrow race, his resentment towards the teabaggers for calling him a pro-amnesty anti-energy liberal could cause him to act like a moderate again (since his politics are largely based on resentment against former opponents).  If he loses, he would be more inclined to do so.  And while Hayworth might be marginally more conservative in his voting, he'll be easy pickings as soon as the Dems can round up a decent candidate (this cycle or next).

---

by: omarka @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:15:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah, I don't see taht happening

If McCain wins, he'll vote like a conservative.  

---

by: xcave @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 15:34:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You would think

that if a candidate as extreme as Hayworth made it to the GE the Dems would find somebody.

Still, this being the AZ Democratic party we're talking about here, that's probably assuming too much.  

---

by: notanothersonofabush @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:32:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

By then it's too late

After the primaries are over it's too late to find a top-tier Dem candidate.  Hopefully if Hayworth did jump in and gain traction a good Dem would get in the race.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:56:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Wasn't the mayor of Phoenix, Phil Gordon

sitting out because he is friends with McCain?  If a primary defeat looked imminent, would that change his intentions to ignore AZ-Sen in 2010?

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:08:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That Could Happen

Gordon did indeed rule out a Senate run should McCain run again. However, I think McCain still has the edge in this primary simply based on his name and incumbency status alone.

It's way too early at this point to know if someone like Hayworth can actually knock him off. If Gordon entered the race and won, but McCain managed to win anyway, it would look extremely weird for Gordon, I think.

Still, it's nice to see a silver lining in the scenario that McCain is defeated.  

---

by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:28:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I agree above, not much of a difference.

And in getting rid of McCain, we get rid of someone still called a moderate who still has a lot of popularity in Arizona for someone who is called a conservative and that is no where near as popular and thus easier to beat down the road.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:17:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Enormous difference

McCain is a lihning rod for infighting.  He'd be far better to have than Hayworth bowharding around... and also Mccain won't run again.  better an open seat in six years than Hayworth... who could potentially moderate his rhethoric in five years and become more like Kyl, which means he would not be easy to beat.

McCain or Hayworth will be extremely vulnerable,  If Hayworth gets in, wh need a top tier person to have the soine to get in.

---

by: tommypaine @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 17:53:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Too bad there's no GE numbers

Someone like Giffords, I think, would surely be competitive against Hayworth.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:53:22 AM CST

Re: Too bad there's no GE numbers

Gabby Giffords would be a fascinating opponent for John McCain given her vote in favor of expanded government health care.

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/200...

Arizona will have a 2010 ballot measure prohibiting mandatory health insurance.

http://www.google.com/search?q...

---

by: Thane Eichenauer @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:23:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

And you are big time jerk

coming here and spilling your Faux News talking points here.

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:26:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Re: And you are big time jerk

If you want to attack me via name calling all the smart people just say: No comeback eh?

---

by: Thane Eichenauer @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 00:07:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Do you understand the nature of this website?

It's not non-partisan, you know.

---

by: Pan @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 01:14:13 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Bye bye concern troll

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:42:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

when's the primary?

if it becomes obvious mccain will lose his primary, a better dem may jump in.

being normal is for the mediocre.

---

by: doug_tuttle @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 11:55:37 AM CST

Primary is August

Filing deadline May.

---

by: conspiracy @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:03:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Click "2010 Calendar" under "SSP Resources"

and you'll see filing and primary date for the state -

Arizona   5/26/10   8/24/10

So yes, there's time - say McCain is losing by March, someone like Giffords could jump in. (It surprised me to realize that the other D reps are all over 60.)

---

by: tietack @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:10:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's worth keeping in mind that this primary is very late

It's scheduled for September, though the new federal law will likely push it back to late August.  What this means is that interested Dems have over half a year to file if Hayworth actually jumps into the race and becomes competitive.

Glassman's the best we're going to get in a mano-a-mano with McCain.  But if it looks like Hayworth is going to actually get in and might win the primary, there are at least two heavy hitters on the Dem side who would probably jump in.  One is Jim Pederson, the wealthy developer, former Dem Party state chair, and 2006 Senate candidate who performed respectably against Jon Kyl.  The other is Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who's known as a RINO and who we'd hate if he actually won the election (he's regularly endorsed not only McCain, but the odious GOP Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas), but who might have the perfect profile for a race against Hayworth.

Both these guys wanted to run for Governor this cycle, but were scared off by the popularity juggernaut that is Terry Goddard.  Pederson has done decently well before and could likely beat Hayworth.  Gordon is untested in a statewide race, but his profile suggests he might very well win too.

Note to the Gabby Giffords fans on SSP: it would be sheer lunacy for Giffords to run.  Candidates from Tucson tend not to do well in statewide races, and anyone in this race would be facing an uphill battle since McCain would be favored to win the primary.  That's a risk worth taking for Pederson, who's out of a job, or for Gordon, who otherwise has to wait nine more years for Goddard to retire before moving up to statewide office.  But for Giffords, who's got a great platform and a relatively safe House seat where she is, and who's very young to boot, it would be a foolish move.  And Giffords is nothing if not whip-smart politically.

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 12:55:47 PM CST

I don't want Giffords to jump.

Because she occupies a Republican leaning seat, and I don't want it to be open this year.  However, she should be able to beat Hayworth.  She carried her district by 12% in the last two elections, even though McCain won it by 6%.  She's also an absurdly good fundraiser.

She should be able to take out Kyl next cycle.

---

by: omarka @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:13:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I thought about Pederson too

I had thought he was out of elective politics, though, not sure why I'd believed that. He'd be a decent candidate.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 15:15:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Huh?

The same Pederson who lost hadily to one of the most conservative republicans in the Senate (Kyl) in a very democratic year (2006)?  No thanks.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 15:26:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

True

I'd like to see Pederson jump in as well. He was fumbling around for a while earlier in the 06 race, but I think he really came into his own mid-October and may have pulled it off if only he had a few more weeks. I think he'd do quite well with another race, and it would likely be at least a tossup against Hayworth, maybe even tilting Pederson's way because of Godard.

Chill out about Gabby-, though. I agree that this is not her race, but if she starts early I think she'd have a very good chance in 2012. Tucson candidates don't so much do poorly in statewide races as they don't even bother to run. Giffords is surely one of the most impressive Arizona politicians to come from the rest of the state in quite a while. Phoenician Dems may initially get huffy about having to deal with someone whose not their own, but they've done such a dreadful job at the forefront of things over the last several cycles that they'd probably buckle rather quickly in the face of--what's the word?--competence.

However, the most important thing we need to do is buildup our bench, as its incredibly weak right now. I'm feeling optimistic about David Lujan (Dem House Leader & AG Candidate) and Sam Wercinski (SOS Candidate), but we desperately need to get our act together with legislature seats. I'm likely leaving Arizona before the next election, so I'm having trouble thinking of it as something that I have a direct stake in anymore, but if nothing else seeing AZ Dems constantly fumbling good opportunities gets quite embarrassing.

---

by: Nico @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 17:07:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

2010 could be a good year for Democrats in Arizona

if they had the confidence and got their act together for a change.

---

by: Baystater @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:04:17 PM CST

Ironically

I wonder if Napolitano leaving her Governor's job for Homeland Security and handing it to republican Brewer helped Dem chances of winning that race in 2010.  Brewer has proven quite unpopular and taken the blame for the economy since she is the incumbent while our candidate AG Goddard is sitting pretty.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:18:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That is clearly incorrect

This is good news for John McCain.

---

by: MattTX2 @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 13:06:03 PM CST

I just yelled "Holy shit!"

upon seeing those numbers.

Here is my big worry now about all of these tea-bagger primaries, they are really going to screw us down the road when we need the help of moderates to get legislation passed, mainly immigration reform.  That was the one piece of legislation where we lost a large number of Dems but also picked up a large number of GOPers and we came up just short.

A tea-bagger primary against McCain is only going to make him think twice about supporting immigration reform this time around, and this will certainly carry over to MANY other GOPers whose vote we need to get this passed.  Someone on SSP had mentioned reading an article about how the GOP wouldve been more willing to work with the Dems on the stimulus I think it was but they were all too-afraid of their bases.

And there is also the possibility that the Dems will not be ready to capitalize on all of these tea-bagger primaries, thus allowing several of them to win.  We could certainly come back in 6 years or 2 years and have the candidate and campaign ready to take them down but too late, the meme that the GOP tea-baggers won has already been published.

I am really worried about what this all portends for national politics.  We have a giant problem in that the people who decide elections are not the people deciding the candidates.

---

by: Andrew @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 14:23:24 PM CST

The Democrats need to start recruiting candidates

in a twofold strategy for these districts:

1. Party activists who are basically sacrificial lambs, but are unselfish enough to step aside if a teabagger wins a primary.

2. Heavyweights who will run a short campaign only if the teabagger wins the primary, after the sacrificial lamb steps aside.

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:15:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Is there a way to appoint a candidate

if the nominated candidate resigns?  That is should Hayworth win a primary, and Glassman "decides" to no longer be the nominee, is it possible for the Democratic Party to slate Napolitano in his place?

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:12:54 PM CST

Napolitano - you are joking right?

I may not hear much smack about Napolitano here in Arizona but I can't imagine that most Democrats have much love in their hearts for the person who gave the office of Governor to Jan Brewer (R).  Not that Brewer really isn't an incompetent Janet Napolitano lite but the labels matter for some people.  

---

by: Thane Eichenauer @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:28:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Take your Faux News talking points elsewhere

I would be very glad to see Napolitano as our nominee and I'm sure than many other Democrats would be too.

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:31:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The PRESIDENT appointed her

And Dems are is great position to take the Governorship back in 2010 with Goddard.  Concern troll much?

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 16:48:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thane is a teabagger

I may spend a moment here and there looking at poll results but the fact is that the only thing that counts is who actually shows up for the election (or sends in a ballot by mail).  While this is either a race to win power or celebrity for some of the candidates I support Peter Schiff for US Senate because he has ideas and principles worth supporting.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 17:31:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I see an empty bag

and a cat beside it.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 21, 2009 at 12:00:08 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Could Glassman beat Hayworth?

   Nobody knows who he is to be sure, but he seems to have a nice resume and a pretty face.  Hayworth is no Rubio.  He is a vile person and it comes out in his campaign style.  Hispanics would run to the polls to beat a bigot like Hayworth.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy

---

by: cilerder86 @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 18:49:03 PM CST

Wow

Hayworth as the GOP nominee for an Arizona Senate seat and Tancredo for Governor in Colorado.  The turnout among Hispanics would be record shattering in those states if that actually happened.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 20:08:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm not optimistic

But it's definitely possible. Glassman's no bleeding-heart liberal and would probably be very well positioned to scoop up McCain's support from the center and the center-right. He has a lot of money and a lot of potential fundraising connections, so it really depends on how he does on the stump.

---

by: Nico @ Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 20:52:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If Hayworth runs, it's an interesting problem for Palin

Kristol suggests that she should back the person who brought her into the national spotlight.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...

And then there's this response http://www.amconmag.com/larison/

For the most part, the people who love Palin loathe McCain as all the things they oppose in the GOP.

snip

Were she to side openly with McCain in a primary against Hayworth, whose views match up a lot more closely with her supporters' views, she would be seen as imitating McCain's worst habits. She would be considered a worse sell-out than McCain. She would be doing exactly the opposite of what she did in NY-23.

---

by: tietack @ Sat Nov 21, 2009 at 10:15:23 AM CST

I need some more popcorn

could you spare me a bag, brother?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 21, 2009 at 12:00:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Before we get out the popcorn

Is there anything to suggest that Hayworth is actually considering a bid?

If there is, the Dems need to consider finding a better candidate.

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Nov 21, 2009 at 16:24:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Just seeing this poll

is surely making Hayworth give the race another look even if he ruled it out previously.  If the guy ever wants to get into elected politics again this would be his golden opportunity.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sun Nov 22, 2009 at 20:16:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Just wondering...why is all the action in the primaries now?

Or is that only because we haven't gotten into the general season yet?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:34:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You probably have it correct

Because the primaries are yet to be decided and there weem to be an unusually high number of entertaining primaries in 2010.

Thankfully the FL Senate primary is very late in 2010.  That means Rubio and Crist still have around 9 months to bloody each other.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 09:26:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'll make the popcorn!

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 10:39:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]